Some Very Fine Tuning for the Mets

As much as it's difficult to pull ourselves from football, after the Giants Super Bowl win and the surprise cancellation of "Inside the NFL" by HBO, it's high-time to talk baseball. I'll skip basketball for the moment and Shaq's trade to the Suns, which was highway-robbery on Miami's part. I'll skip all the drivel revolving around Roger Clemens too. I'd like to forget about him completely, as much of the sports world will do once the syringe results are in. Except....I do wonder how Mike Piazza feels about the whole thing.

Yes, it's about time I turn my attention to my favorite subject, the New York Mets. Shaking off their astounding collapse of 2007, the Mets, after some seemingly lack-luster moves over the winter, managed to pick up Johan Santana, only the best pitcher in the game. Although I say that with some reservation, given the unbelievable performance of Josh Beckett in last year's playoffs and World Series, millions of fantasy baseball players can't be wrong.

And, as any fantasy player will tell you, the first pitcher chosen in fantasy drafts for several years has been Johan Santana. I must also confess, however, that most winners in fantasy baseball do not select pitchers in the first round. Nor, for that matter, do they select pitchers in about the first five rounds. The reason, of course, is risk.

Pitchers do some very strange things with their shoulders and elbows. The pitchers who seem to last the longest, though, are those fastball pitchers and Johan qualifies. The interesting thing about Santana is that, despite the overpowering heater, his strikeout pitch is quite often the "circle change". The nice thing, from a Mets fan's point of view is that the circle change requires no twisting of the wrist or elbow. Just sock that ball way back in your palm and let it go.

Pitchers are also very often inconsistent, both from season to season and within each season itself. In the last three years with the Twins, Santana went 16-7, 19-6 and 15-13. His ERA for the same years was 2.87, 2.77 and 3.33. I've heard it said that he's had over 200 strikeouts every year, but that's a bit like saying Barry Bonds had over 30 homers every year. Santana had K totals of 238, 245 and 235 in his last three years.

Josh Beckett for the same years went 15-8, 16-11 and 20-7, very impressive, but that was with the World Champions for the last two years. His ERA for the same years was 3.38, 5.01 and 3.27. (It is rather troubling that, in his first year changing leagues, his ERA increased dramatically). He struck out 166, 158 and 194 batters. He gives up more hits, walks more batters and pitches fewer innings than does Santana.

Despite having pitched so many innings over the last three years, he doesn't throw many pitches per outing.. He doesn't walk many batters, and he doesn't surrender many hits either. That reduces his pitch counts per game dramatically, and, if I may say so, puts smiles on his and his teammates' faces all throughout the game.

You may have guessed by now, that despite the risk associated with pitchers in general, I am thrilled that the Mets acquired this 28-year old. No pitcher has been more consistent and no pitcher has a more risk-worthy pitching style than Santana. In addition, as far as anyone knows, he does not attend cock-fights.

The Santana contract compares favorably, given inflation in the market for pitchers, to the deal for Pedro Martinez, which was for four years and 53 million back in 2004, if you consider that Pedro was 33 years old at the time. Pedro, of course, pitched well for the Mets in 2005 and half of 2006 before missing almost the entire 2007 season.

This 2008 season will be another contract year for Pedro (another interesting fact not lost on fantasy players). There is every reason to believe that Pedro may have his best season in years, which would be saying something. If Pedro can produce at 90% of his 2005 production, he wil pitch 28 starts, throw 195 innings and strikeout 187. His ERA would be about 3.10.

So, Mets fans, we lost a nice left-hander, Tom Glavine, and gained the best southpaw in baseball. We lost a nice catcher, Paul LoDuca but Brian Schneider has been a better defensive catcher, and Ramon Castro may get more at-bats, a good thing. We lost Lastings Milledge and Shawn Green but acquired Ryan Church, and Endy Chavez may get more at-bats, another good thing. In addition, both Schneider and Church bat left-handed; expect eventual platoons at both catcher and right field.

The rotation looks to be that much stronger, but, perhaps more significantly, the middle relief could regain its 2006 status. Duaner Sanchez returns. Minaya also picked up a 27-year old named Ruddy Lugo. He should complement Pedro Feliciano, Jorge Sosa, Scott Schoenweiss and another interesting addition, Matt Wise from the Brewers.

Last year's collapse was primarily due to too many leads given up in the middle innings, due to comparatively short starter outings and too many middle relief appearances. Jose Reyes and Carlos Delgado, however, also slumped and placed additional pressure on Wright and Beltran for run production. They need to have better years.

Moises Alou needs to be play a full season. He has been a great hitter but in his last three years has averaged only about 100 games. Marlon Anderson backs him up, but is also the premiere pinch-hitter in the league, and he can't do both.

It should be another battle with the Phils this year. They picked up a closer in Brad Lidge and moved Bret Myers into the rotation. They also added power to an already strong lineup in the form of Geoff Jenkins from the Brewers.

The Mets now have better starters, better overall relief and more flexibility, if not power, in their lineup. Look for a mid-season trade if Delgado can’t produce. With a little luck, the Mets should make a return trip to the World Series.

G-Men - Teamwork Without Arrogance

All New Yorkers are Giants fans today. But they weren't on Friday. Everyone was shocked on Sunday. How often do we have to see an offensive juggernaut get beat in a Super Bowl before we're able to digest the fact that they don't necessarily win in February, especially not against a determined and talented opponent.

Yet it was easy to recognize that the Giants were hot, that they had great leadership on both sides of the ball, that they had an overpowering defense, that they had a legacy quarterback, that they were having more fun all week than were the Patriots. Enthusiasm? The Patriots showed little of that in those two weeks before the big game. And they showed that same weakness in the game, especially in the trenches.

Even given all of that, however, the Giants may have needed a miraculous catch on the other end of a spectacular escape by the suddenly slippery Eli Manning to come away with the victory. I say "may have" because David Tyree's jumping, reaching, ball to head-squeezing catch occurred on a third down. There's no doubt in my mind that somebody else would have made a play on fourth down. Much as Brandon Jacobs pounded through the Pats on that fourth and one. Much as Amani Toomer did on third and ten, coming back and securing a throw a few inches off the ground. Much as Steve Smith did on third and eleven.

It shouldn't have had to come to 4th quarter heroics. The Giants physically dominated the entire game. If you could knock the G-Men for anything, it's that they gave all their fans the scare of their lives. To be honest, watching the game was painful for a true Giants fan. Yes, we could cheer the heroic pass rush from Strahan and Umenyiora and Tuck, and even Jay Alford and Kawika Mitchell, and love the 45-yard catch and run by rookie TE Kevin Boss, and thrill to the pounding of Jacobs and the slashing of Bradshaw....but where were the results?

With 2:42 left in the game, despite having their butts kicked for the entire game, the Pats were up by three. We had to watch Randy Moss celebrating the lead (and himself) on the sideline. We had to endure seeing Cory Webster slip, enabling the score. We had to endure the huge Chase Blackburn failure to get off the field, thus prolonging a Patriots drive that could have been a Giants death knell. We had to watch a battered Brady complete short pass after short pass to Welker and Faulk and Moss. There had also been the interception on Smith's bobble, the missed opportunity to a wide-open Plaxico.

While it's difficult to say the Giants were unlucky, given the outcome, they really didn't have much luck. I suppose all the good fortune they lacked for 57 minutes and change came back to them on that one final drive. Yet Tyree's catch, even that seemingly individual moment was the result of some excellent teamwork, that of center Shaun O'Hara and guard Rich Seubert continuing their struggle against Richard Seymour and Jarvis Green, who had run a beautiful stunt on the play. Their staying with their blocks is what really enabled Eli to escape the grasps and make that wondrous throw.

But that play may have never come to pass without Toomer's earlier heroics, or the work of the offensive line and Brandon Jacobs on that seemingly forgotten fourth down. And, even that miracle may have been forgotten if not for the nifty work of Antonio Pierce, the linebackers and that hard-hitting secondary. The point here is that the Giants victory truly was a team effort, and that statement certainly doesn't exclude the head coach, his offensive and defensive coordinators.

The biggest surprise of the game was that the Giants pass rush had such enormous success versus that of their last regular season game. The Giants coaching staff had the presence of mind to hold back in that game from showing their entire blitz package, as the playoffs were coming up. As a result, the Patriots couldn't solve the Giants pass rush. As a result, Brady had no time to throw. As a result, Brady threw the ball up many times with almost no hope of a completion. As a result, the Patriots juggernaut offense was reduced to just 14 points, just short of Plax’s prediction so derided by Brady, a derision that may have given those defenders just the push they needed.

In the final analysis, this was a match of two very similar opponents. Both teams had good leadership, but the Giants was a hair better. The superior offense of the Patriots was negated by the fierce Giants pass rush and sound coverage. The kicking game went to the Giants. Feagles was much more effective than was Chris Hanson. Gostkowski never got his lone opportunity.

As good as Eli was on this day, the day he would tie his brother in Super Bowl wins, it would be a stretch to say he was better than Brady. Indeed, if not for the level-headedness and accuracy of Brady, maybe the Pats wouldn’t have even been close in this game. A lesser quarterback would have come undone.

It must be said that, in retrospect, Belichick may have lost this game. His decision to eschew a field goal attempt on a 4^th and 13 from the Giants 31 was a serious error. The failed Pats 4^th down pass attempt kept the score at only 7-3 in favor of the Patriots. The game was ultimately decided by three points. A punt would have made some sense in a field-position game, an attempt to make a first down was borne of arrogance.

And that may have been the real key to victory, a magnificent display of teamwork but a lack of arrogance by 53 guys who now get their place in the sun.

On Leadership, Heritage, Defense and Fun

Even the gods of football have to be tired of the Patriots same sad old song. Team, team, team, ad nauseum, that same tired old injury report, Bruschi, Vrabel, Seau, yada yada, and of course Brady Brady Brady. It's that sameness of spirit that'll beat the Patriots Sunday night. It's too mechanical, too rehearsed, a team of automatons led by a sociopathic coach who may have assembled a team that seems a little long on experience and a little short on enthusiasm.

The Giants, on the other hand, are a team coming off three impressive victories, all on the road, and with their season on the line in each one. Along the way, they beat an old nemesis, Jeff Garcia, in the first playoff game, then they beat a team to which they had twice lost during the regular season, then they beat another team that thrashed them in the regular season, a team with a Hall of Fame quarterback on a tradition-rich field in zero-degree weather.

If you truly do believe in the team concept, then you have to pick the Giants on Sunday. In Tom Coughlin, they have a head coach who has changed his coaching style to accommodate and strengthen his team. In Kevin Gilbride, they have an offensive coordinator with the guts to listen to his players to improve the offense. In Steve Spagnuolo, they have a defensive coordinator with the guts to adjust his schemes to the strengths of his players, to play bump-and-run with the most dangerous receivers in the game, to blitz when four men alone couldn't get it done.

They have no super-model spouse at quarterback, just Eli Manning, a guy with a strong football heritage, a guy who does what he needs to do to win, a guy who'd love to get a ring to match his older brother's, a guy who'd love to laugh with his Dad after still one more huge win. Records aren't important to him. He was just as happy after a win in Buffalo, one in which at least five of his passes were dropped and his rating was about 32, as he was after his 132 qb rating in the Cowboys victory.

The Giants have other leaders too, hungry men all, such as Antonio Pierce on the defense, who held up two men at once until help could arrive against the Packers to prevent a sure touchdown. Michael Strahan leads a group of strong defensive linemen, athletic types who stop the run and the pass too. On the offense, Amani Toomer has played like a man possessed in these playoffs, making seemingly every big third-down catch, and who remembers how bad it felt to lose a Super Bowl.

Another thing weighing heavily in the Giants favor is defense. The Patriots with their high-flying offense have not been particularly impressive on the defense. Although they only gave up 12 points to the Chargers, it was to a Chargers team playing without their premier back, LaDainian Tomlinson, and with a hobbled quarterback. Previous to that game, they surrendered 20 points to a Jacksonville team that had a rather one-dimensional offense compared to that of the Giants. And, of course, prior to that game, the Giants scored 35 against them.

The Giants defense has been opportunistic as well as good. Against Dallas, it was the defense that made two consecutive 4th quarter stops to ruin the Cowboys year and versus the Pack, it was a key 4th quarter interception against Bret Favre that carried the G-Men to the Super Bowl.

Of course, the Giants did indeed lose to the Patriots in that first encounter but it was without one of their emerging stars, the powerful and speedy Ahmad Bradshaw, who has been one of the keys to the Giants victories in their playoffs run. Not only has he been a threat to score every time he touches the ball, he has, more importantly, helped eat up the clock, something the Giants were unable to do against the Pats in the second half of the first game. The Giants also had some gross misfortune in a blown coverage after the injury to Sam Madison that resulted in that long touchdown pass to Randy Moss, the fastest, strongest,most dangerous receiver in the NFL today, just ask him.

There is also the fun factor. The Giants are a heavy underdog, they can play fast and loose. They don't carry the weight of fantastic expectations. The Patriots carry the burden of all those consecutive wins and, significantly, they do seem rather afraid of losing this game. They realize what they're facing and don't want to blow this most important game of all, the one that could render all their previous records rather meaningless. They seem rather tight in their interviews and it wouldn't be surprising if they play on Sunday as tentatively as they interview.

There is some precedent, of course, for heavy underdogs winning Super Bowls, two significant ones belonging to New York teams. The Jets were 17-point dogs to the Colts back in that most famous Super Bowl of them all, the one responsible for the merger of the AFL and the NFL. These same Giants, in fact, were underdogs to that Buffalo Bills team who were 7-point favorites in Super Bowl XXV, the Bills who had beaten the Giants once that season already, the Bills who had scored 51 in their last outing against the Raiders.

The Giants won that day with a power running game and some magnificent defense, an imaginative defense that changed defensive formations throughout the game. The Giants controlled the ball, and, by the time the Bills figured out what was happening to them, it was too late.

I think the Giants will once again win a final encounter. Any Giant could be the hero, Manning, or Strahan or Toomer. But it could also be Jacobs or Bradshaw or even Kevin Boss. It could even be Cory Webster. But the G-Men will get it done.