All Things Being Equal...

There are going to be some real dogfights for divisional titles this year in Major League Baseball. No, there won’t be any pit bulls or even evil-looking roosters, but there will be some guys with that determined look on their faces, and they’ll be dramatically changing the outlook for their respective teams in the races for the playoffs.

In the AL East, while the Red Sox won it all last year, they will have trouble repeating. With Curt Schilling ailing, the starting pitching isn’t really that strong. Josh Beckett and Daisuke Matsuzaka are #1 and #2, but #3 will be Wakefield and #4 will be Jon Lester or Clay Bucholz. The lineup isn’t really all that strong either after a big three of Ortiz, Ramirez and Youkilis. Jacoby Ellsbury, their nifty cf of last year, will have to do it again to make me a true believer.

The Yankees have all that power and, although they lost out in the Santana sweepstakes, have fewer question marks in a starting rotation going into the season. Wang and Pettite are very steady and Joba makes a hell of a third starter if they put him there. Mussina wasn’t as reliable last year as he had been, but I’d expect that one of either Phil Hughes or Ian Kennedy should be a more than adequate replacement.

<>The real surprise team in all of baseball, though, could be the Toronto Blue Jays. I believe Scott Rolen will outperform Troy Glaus, who they traded to the Cards. When Scott Rolen is happy, he’s formidable on offense and defense. He’s a winner, as is another very nice clutch player, a real gamer, ss David Eckstein. Vernon Wells had shoulder surgery and could recapture some of the magic he produced in the past. On paper, their potential lineup is scary with speed and power. Alex Rios, their rightfielder returns. Rios hits for power and can run. Lyle Overbay is a very nice first baseman. And Frank Thomas, if he can stay healthy, could out-produce his 2007 numbers of 26 homers and 95 rbi’s.

Pitching? Roy Halladay, A.J. Burnett and youngsters Dustin McGowan and Shaun Marcum are the best starting rotation in the league. And with B.J. Ryan returning to close, and a perfectly good middle-relief corps of lefties and righties, the Jays might also have the best relief corps in baseball.

<>In the AL Central, Detroit’s additions of Dontrelle Willis, Miguel Cabrera and Edgar Renteria should make them too much for anything else in the Central. But the Indians will be returning with the best starters in Sabathia, Carmona, Westbrook and Byrd. The relief corps is very strong again, despite the seemingly annual harangue over closer Joe Borowski. <>

The Angels will once again battle the Mariners for supremacy but neither of these teams is on the rise. Whoever prevails will fall in the first round.

I think the Jays will win the AL East this year. And maybe win the whole shebang. Because these three AL East teams will be knocking one another off all year, look for the wildcard to come out of the Central Division. Detroit and Cleveland will probably prevail over the Mariners or Angels.

In the NL East, the most ballyhooed addition of a player was, of course, Johan Santana, and he should considerably bolster the Mets staff, considering the net advantage of him versus Tom Glavine. The Mets also should have less controversy this year if swapping a Schneider for a LoDuca at catcher is any indication.

The Phillies will be tough again though. They also acquired a pretty fair closer in Brad Lidge, enabling Brett Myers to move back into his #2 starting role. Cole Hamels is the Number 1 starter and the southpaw went 15-5 with a 3.39 ERA in 2007. The starting pitching does drop off after the first big two though. They do have some nice middle relief though in Tom Gordon, J.C. Romero and Ryan Madsen.

<>The Braves are looking improved as well. While Tom Glavine isn’t Johan Santana, he isn’t chopped liver either and will probably be better than ever in his old home ballpark. The loss of Andruw Jones though will be painful. They do have the powerful Mark Teixeira now though, and a young fellow named Yunel Escobar, a 6-2 200 pound ss who hit .326 for them last year should adequately replace Edgar Renteria. If Chipper Jones can stay healthy, you have to look out for the Braves as well.

In the NL Central, there are the Chicago Cubs. They are loaded with pitchers. Zambrano, Lilly, Rich Hill, Jon Lieber for starters and a shootout for closing duties between Kerry Wood and Carlos Marmol. Two intriguing additions to their lineup could make them that much stronger. Kosuke Fukudome may compare with Ichiro, they say, and there is also a new catcher in the person of Geovany Soto who hit .353 in AAA before smacking .389 for the major league club in just 18 games.

The Cubs ascendancy may very well be at the expense of the perennial hard-luck Milwaukee Brewers. But the Brewers added five pitchers to their suspect relief corps. And have a potentially strong starting rotation. The Brewers could surprise. Prince Fielder returns, of course, and if Bill Hall can man third base while Ryan Braun moves to the outfield, their defense will be greatly improved.

<>In the NL West, the Arizona Diamondbacks, San Diego Padres and Colorado Rockies seem poised for another thriller of a division race in the NL West. All pitching, no hitting for the D-Backs though; the same can be said for the Padres. I expect that the Rockies will prevail once more, despite the losses of Kaz Matsui and starter Josh Fogg.

Parity can be a wonderful thing. Especially if it results in a Blue Jays-Cubs World Series. Or Indians-Brewers even. Only the networks would take issue with those matchups. That is, unless you discount about 20 million Yanks, Mets and Red Sox faithful.

The Yanks and Continuity

Although I had planned a very different article for today, I had read this morning that Mariano Rivera, Jorge Posada, Derek Jeter and Andy Pettite were the sole remaining vestiges of those Yankees teams of the 1996-2000 era, that team that won 4 out of 5 World Series. That prompted my curiosity about what those teams had that was so special. So I did a little checking.

What they really had a lot of was continuity, in the starting rosters for most years and in the bullpen for other years. The real run to me, and the greatest team, wasn't really that 1996-1997 team; it was that 1998-2000 team that won three straight.

Going back to 1994, the strike year, when the entire season and World Series was cancelled, the Yankees were very good. They were leading the AL East in 1994 under Bucky Showalter and finished the season at 70-43. That team had Mike Stanley catching, Don Mattingly at first base and Pat Kelly at second. Wade Boggs played third and the shortstop was Mike Gallego. Luis Polonia manned one of the OF positions, but Bernie Williams and Paul O'Neill did play the other two spots.

In 1995, Tony Fernandez replaced Gallego at short and Gerald Williams replaced Polonia. Otherwise, that team was much the same but lost the ALDS to Seattle. Interestingly enough, Andy Pettite pitched 175 innings and went 12-9 that year. David Cone went 9-2 that year in 99 innings. Mariano Rivera was a starter and went 5-3 in 67 innings. Bernie Williams and Paul O'Neill were the nucleus of that team and many of the teams to follow, both batting over .300 and leading the team in rbi's.

In 1996, Joe Torre's first year, the biggest changes besides Torre were a young fella named Derek Jeter as shortstop and a fiery first baseman named Tino Martinez. Jeter batted .314 in his rookie year and Tino knocked in 117. Bernie was magnificent and O'Neill was solid. Pettite won 21 games. Joe Girardi , the Yanks current manager, had taken over the catcher's position.

In 1997, that team lost Wade Boggs And Mariano Duncan. They were replaced by Luis Sojo and a journeyman named Charlie Hayes. Tim Raines spelled Gerald Williams in the outfield. David Wells took a pitching spot. The Yanks went down to Cleveland in the Division Series.

In '98, Posada replaced Girardi and hit 17 home runs in just 358 at bats. Chuck Knoblauch took over at second base and scored 117 runs. Another nice player, Chad Curtis, took over for Raines in left field. Orlando Hernandez, El Duque, was 12-4. The pitching staff was great, with David Cone going 20-7, Wells went 18-4, Pettite was 16-11 and another Hideki named Irabu went 13-9. The Yanks swept the Padres in the World Series.

In '99, it was the same guys coming at the league again. Clemens replaced Wells. The relief corps was remarkably stable since 1997, when Rivera took over from John Wetteland as the closer and Mike Stanton, Jason Grimsley, Graeme Lloyd, Jeff Nelson, and Ramiro Mendoza were the stalwarts at middle relief. The Yanks again swept a World Series, this time against the Braves.

In 2000, here they came again. Ricky Ledee played some for Curtis and David Justice joined the gang. Pettite and Clemens went 19-9 and 13-8 and both pitched over 200 innings. Cone began a decline though. And El Duque was just mediocre. A lot of people pitched a lot of innings, Ramiro Mendoza, Dwight Gooden.. ..but the Yanks still managed to win the Subway Series in 5 games against the Mets.

2001 wasn’t quite the same though, nor were the results. Knoblauch moved to left field while a fella named Alfonso Soriano played second. David Justice played a role. Cone was missed though, and Hideki Irabu was replaced by Ted Lilly. That team eventually lost to the Arizona Diamondbacks behind Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling and Luis Gonzalez. And, sadly, if anyone lost that World Series, it had to be Mariano Rivera who took the loss in Game 7.

The Yanks haven’t been the same since that game really. In 2002, Tino Martinez was replaced by Jason Giambi, who, in retrospect, never really made the grade. And, nearly as significant, Scott Brosius, a big-time Series performer and clutch player at third base, was replaced by Robin Ventura. Paul O’Neill retired, a kind of death knell to that era in my mind.

The Bombers have never really recovered. They did make strong bids in 2003 and 2004 but never really had that magic of the late Nineties. The Marlins took them out in six games in the 2003 Series, and, in a paralyzing series of games in 2004, the Red Sox came back to whip the Yanks in seven after Mariano Rivera blew the save in Game 4.

After 2003, of course, the Yanks were vastly different. The pitchers in 2004 were Vasquez, Lieber, Mussina, Kevin Brown, El Duque and Esteban Loaiza. Arod and Matsui had strengthened the team but they seemed lost at both the right-side infield spots, with Tony Clark at first base in 2004, Miguel Cairo at second.

There is hope though, Yankees fans. There has been increasing continuity in this team since 2006. The infield and outfield have been stable, although first base has been a huge problem. Although Robinson Cano eventually took over at the keystone bag, first base continues to be a wasteland, much as left field had been earlier. Pitching too has seen a remarkable lack of continuity, with a fill-in approach, but now there are Hughes and Kennedy.

Yes, 2008 has promise. The holdovers from the great Yankees teams of the past, though, will have to perform. That means Jeter, Posada, Rivera, Pettite. Abreu and Damon have been in place for some time now, as has Matsui. And, of course, Arod. LaTroy Hawkins strengthens the bullpen. Chamberlain strengthens any rotation he wishes to join.

Watch out for these 2008 Yankees.

A Shame It Was A Sham......

The Congressional hearing on steroids use in baseball was a sham. Divided along party lines, the Republicans lambasted Brian McNamee and lauded Roger Clemens. The Republicans went so far as to attack McNamee for being a drug dealer and a liar.

Although the Democrats were more even-handed, they supported McNamee and brought Clemens face-to-face with the sworn testimony of Andy Pettite, who recalled that Clemens did say he used HGH.

Another sad day for America. The two-party system isn't working.