A Feeling for Seven

Thank your lucky stars, if you’re not too disappointed with your particular election results, for Game 6 finally arriving. Since the end of Game 5, since Jeter hit that double play groundball and Teixeira struck out, we’ve been hearing about the starting pitching, and how bad they’re going to be. That’s led to insane discussions of relief pitching, and pleas to bring Mariano Rivera into the game at the earliest possible opportunity.

Seldom in life, or elections for that matter, do things turn out exactly as we thought they might. I think it’s entirely likely that both Andy Pettitte and Pedro Martinez will be great. One’s a super-Yankee and one’s a super Hall of Famer. They should both be relieved of an awful lot of pressure, being that everyone’s expectations of them are so low.

They both have long histories of successes and they both have the hearts of baseball fans firmly in their uniform pockets. Pedro is 219-100 in his career. He’s pitching to put a fine shiny cap on an almost unbelievable career. Pettitte is 229-135 for his career. He’s pitching to go down in Yankee lore as one of their best, alongside names such as Ford and Guidry.

So they both have all the incentive in the world to pitch the greatest game of their career. There’s really no pressure on either of them.

Pettitte is pitching on three days rest. If he fails, it was Girardi’s mistake. He’s 37 years old and has pitched for the Yankees, except for a 3-year stint with Houston, since 1995. So his arm has lots of miles on it. Besides, even if he loses, the Yanks can still pull out a Game 7.

Pedro cares more about his reputation than he does about a Phillies win. That he’s with the Phils at all is entirely a matter of money and opportunity. He looks great. Pedro just turned 38 on October 25th. He can still throw pretty hard and his ball moves like crazy. He changes speeds with every pitch. And of course, he works in and out, up and down, and all the other things a great pitcher does.

Pettitte won’t go more than 6 regardless of the game circumstances. The Yanks are too concerned with pitch counts, and even at this ridiculously late date, their behavior is too ingrained to stop now. Pedro could go the whole nine. If he’s having success out there, they’ll let him pitch himself into the ground. The Phillies relievers haven’t had enough success this Series to warrant any other decision-making process.

I fully expect them to shut down those heavy-hitters on both sides. Pettitte has a couple of other things going for him. He’s a lefty and lefties have been particularly successful in this Series. He’s also great with men on base. Almost nobody is able to sustain a running game against Andy Pettitte. His move to first base is the best in the game and probably illegal.

I figure the game to be even at between two and three runs after 6 innings. That will be where the real fun starts. Pedro will go out there for the 7th and beyond. The Yanks, in an even game, will go to Joba or Marte, depending upon the lefty-righty matchups. It’ll still be an even match after 7, a tired Pedro vs either Yankee is no better than even.

The Yanks will go to Rivera for the eighth. The Phils will stay with Pedro if they’re still even. And then we’ll see the real reason pitchers blow up. It’s not pitch counts that finishes pitchers. It’s pressure. It’s confidence. How many times can a team expect a 4-out, 5-out, 6-out save or hold from a guy who’ll be 40 on November 29th? My guess is not too many times, maybe not even one time.

It’s hard to imagine Pedro going more than 7 unscathed by all that Yankee lumber. But they do have this Madsen guy and he hasn’t been too bad. He throws hard and he’s got a nice breaking ball. Lidge does too for that matter, and I think these Phillies relievers may be primed to shut up all those Yankee nay-sayers.

That’s one scenario, and maybe a more likely scenario could be imagined too. Maybe the years will show on both old reliables and they’ll both be gone early. In that event, the Phillies have some nice answers, either Happ or Myers or anybody wearing a red uniform in the pen. The Yanks have less reliable alternatives to my mind. Hughes has been inconstant, and he’s their most likely long guy, I would think. Of course, there’s Aceves and Coke and all the rest but nobody who really inspires confidence.

In the latter event, the failure of the starters, the Phils have the advantage but it’s probably a slim one. One thing’s for sure though. The attention in this Series will quickly shift to the hitters and then the story will shift to Arod or Utley, the big hitters in this Series, or it could turn to somebody nobody expected, like Scottie Brosius in one of those Yankee stories of yesteryear.

I can’t say as I’d mind if the hero were someone totally unexpected. I’d love to see Shane Victorino have a big game, he of the smashed fingers from Game 5. Both teams have a bevy of secondary stars, if you will, hitters all.

And both teams have legitimate stars who have not yet produced in this Series. Ryan Howard and Mark Teixeira could be having a futility contest. Certainly more could be expected from Rollins in this Series, or for the Yanks, Cano and Swisher, who will be starting tonight. And what about Matsui, who’s been limited only by opportunity?

I’m rooting for a Game 7 though. And, as a long-time Mets fan, I’d like to see a National League team take the whole shebang. This Series deserves to go 7. And I have a feeling that it will.