Jose Reyes Batting Third?

Jose Reyes batting third?
My first thought is that it takes his legs away, his biggest asset. So no matter what else may be good about it, it’s a bad idea. Sure, he might be able to hit .300 in a good year. And yes, he could probably hit for power a bit. And he had no problem driving in runs from the leadoff spot when he had the chance. And it’s true that he doesn’t walk very much so his on-base average suffers. And even Jose Reyes can’t score if he doesn’t get on base.

What that means to me is that he’s only a good leadoff hitter, not a great one. He only played sparingly before 2005 and after 2008. From 2005 to 2008 though, he scored 99, 122, 119 and 113 runs. . So how mediocre is that? Not very. Could he have scored more if he walked more often? Absolutely. But he averaged mid-sixties in the RBI’s department for those years from the leadoff spot. How might that number be reduced if he were not such a free swinger?

Reyes also stole a lot of bases in those years, averaging about 65 per year. Although runs scored is the most obvious stat affected by stolen bases, the stolen base also has residual effects not necessarily so obvious in the box score, all of which have to do with the underlying asset that makes the stolen base possible. That is speed.

Speed drives the opposing pitcher crazy, putting added pressure on him to keep the runner close. It also makes him throw more fastballs, making it easier for the next batter to hit. I can’t quantify it as those stats aren’t even kept (it would be impossible to determine it, what would the next batter have hit without Reyes on base in front of him) but his speed adds to the number of runs produced and scored by those following him in the order, not just the next batter but every batter who steps to the plate while Reyes is on base before him.

So Reyes is one hell of a leadoff hitter because he has speed, not just as determined by his on base percentage. Batting third, many times there will be somebody on base in front of him. Reyes will still have his legs, of course, but it won’t matter…he won’t be able to use them.

In exchange for the loss of all this chaos on the bases and turbulence in the pitcher’s psyche, we get a number 3 guy whose batting averages over those same 2005-2008 seasons were .273, .300, .280 and .297, marginal at best for a number 3 guy. So we’re trading a good to great leadoff hitter for a poor number 3 hitter.

None of the above takes into account the enjoyment that Reyes’s type of game has on the fans. Games will only be almost as enjoyable. Instead of leading off the game with a ball of fire, we lead off with…..whom? Luis Castillo? Angel Pagan? Somebody please get me a bag; I’m going to be sick.

This faulty thinking is really the first time I can recall thinking that Jerry Manuel over-manages. Even when he was changing relief pitchers every third of an inning, I figured he had good reason. He had all these situational pitchers and nobody who could get guys out from either side. Even when he put such an emphasis on hitting to the opposite field last year, a move that may have screwed up some successful swings (see David Wright), I figured his approach really couldn’t cause much harm. (I think it actually was helping Beltran before he went down with his injury).

But this move is just not well thought out, which really isn’t like Manuel at all. My hope is that it’s just a ploy…the old “if you don’t walk more, I’m going to bat you third” ploy. Whether this will have any influence on the oblivious Reyes at all is highly questionable. I think Jose is really untouchable as far as being influenced too much by anything, much to the dismay of Mets fans sometimes.

What the possibility of this move does do though is dampen my enthusiasm for both the season in general and the Mets in particular. I used to be a Minaya-Manuel guy. I’m not so sure of that anymore.