Too Many Variables

It’s hard to figure, professional football outcomes. There are just too many variables.

For the Giants, it was another bad day at the office. A left-handed pass, a fumble down low, a bunch of penalties….geez, I expected them to lose, but who could have predicted that they would lose the way they did?

Let’s face it, their offensive tackles stunk last week, and now they came in without their center. Their tight end had been out. That they were favored in that game was ridiculous. The Titans are a pretty damned good team, year after year, and especially with their line play.

But it didn’t turn out the way I figured. The O-line was good and would have been great if not for their stupid penalties later in the game. Their defensive line, in fact, their whole defense, played admirably. But the Giants did lose anyway. Their special teams, and especially their new punter, Dodge, were awful.

Injuries are the order of the day in professional football. How a team weathers them determines their success. If the Giants had a backup center who was any good, if they had a better punter, they would have played. I didn’t see them, did you?

The Giants need some changes. Will they make them? No. They don’t make in-season changes. Almost every other team does. So they have a built-in disadvantage. They’re living in a different century.

Coughlin takes responsibility though….again. That makes me feel a whole lot better.

The Jets surprised me in a good way, showing me some unexpected toughness, not to mention skill, down in Miami. Mark Sanchez was great….again. He made some awfully nice passes. So was their tight end, Dustin Keller. So was Braylon Edwards, who scored on a cornerback slip, proving there really is no justice in this world. Ask Michael Vick.

But the Jets defense forced the Fish to pass. Ronnie Brown had 54 yards. Ricky Williams had 28. The Jets offense put the Fish in a hole, which forced them to pass. And pass they did, but it wasn’t enough and it’s really not their game. They’re used to running and wearing out the other team, keeping the opposing offense off the field.

The Jets overcame their defensive liabilities, their loss of run-stopper Kris Jenkins, their loss of pass-stopper Darrelle Revis. And they just scored more points than they usually do, even without Leon Washington, the running back they let go to Seattle, who scored twice yesterday to beat the Chargers.

It didn’t have to turn out that way. But the Jets have reserves all over the place. A fellow named Sione Pouha manned the center of the defense, just as capably as he did last year. A fellow named Antonio Cromartie partially made up for the loss of Revis. All their acquisitions were all too visible; LaDainian Tomlinson and Jason Taylor played key roles in the win too.

But in professional football, there are just too many variables to determine outcomes of games. Injuries are only the most glaring example. There is coaching, the game plan, the scheme and how it works against a particular matchup, and just plain luck.

But coaching is huge, not just for game-planning but for motivation as well. The Jets play the game as if it were fun, the Giants play as if it were a forced march, much as the Jets used to play under Mangini.

But the Giants won’t change coaches. They did win it all a few years ago. But that was before the departure of Steve Spagnola to the Rams, an organization on the upswing for sure. That team also had a fellow named Strahan, a leader on and off the field, and a younger offensive line.

The Forty- Niners, who had played like a team on a mission just last week against the Super Bowl champion Saints, lost yesterday to the uncharacteristically good Kansas City Chiefs 31-10. They fired their offensive coordinator today. The Giants will react to their problems sometime next year.

The quarterback sets the tone. Eli Manning, as good as his numbers may be, set the tone yesterday for the Giants and that tone was stupid. Throwing left-handed in the red zone just isn’t smart. Everybody worked too hard to get there. Maybe he hangs around with Favre too much.

Backup quarterback is arguably the second most important position on a football team. When the starter is injured, the backup becomes all-important. The Eagles and Steelers weathered the loss of their first-string guys quite nicely.

Their names were Michael Vick for the Eagles and Dennis Dixon, and then Charlie Batch for the Steelers. They all played great. The Lions just had backup QB Shawn Hill. They haven’t won yet. The Raiders had a fellow named Gradkowski backing up the disappointing Jason Campbell, and he lead them to what should have been a victory.

But then kickers can lose a game for you too. It happened in the Big Easy yesterday. And it happened in Arizona against the Raiders. Sebastian Janikowski, one of the best kickers in the league, missed the game-winner and so did Garrett Hartley for the Saints.

There are just too many variables. With around 50 players and 15 coaches, and an infinite number of game situations, just about anything can happen, and often does.

For example, the Jets just finished beating the Patriots and the Dolphins, both front-runners for playoff bids. They go to lowly Buffalo next week. But Buffalo just rid themselves of their former Number 1 quarterback, and are now involving talented running back C.J. Spiller into the game plan.

The Jets are riding high. How will that affect their attitude?

Those variables, especially injuries, affect fantasy teams too. My team continued its streak of good luck yesterday against a tough opponent despite the loss of its leading scorer, Jahvid Best, who injured a toe. Who could have foreseen a 12-catch performance out of Austin Collie while my opponent’s QB Matt Schaub had his worst game ever?