Jets Beat Pats? It's Not Inconceivable!

Okay, I’ve had a few days to cogitate on this big Jets-Pats matchup in Foxborough and I keep coming up with the same answer…the Jets are and should be a prohibitive underdog. Why? Well, the easy answer is it’s the Jets-Pats in Foxborough.

The Jets did everything right last week in Indianapolis (following my prescription for winning exactly…ahem) except for that ridiculous third down pass, and thus emerged victorious. I’ve been enjoying the game even more immensely this week via the courtesy of the NFL Network and Inside the NFL.

But alas, the Pats are not the Colts. Belichick is not Caldwell and the Pats receivers are not the Colts receivers. They run the ball a little better too. I don’t give Brady much of an advantage over Peyton Manning but, when you consider the difference in their respective receivers, the Pats have a pretty fair-sized plus on their side of the ledger.

The Jets stopped the Colts wideouts virtually cold, allowing just the one long TD to Pierre Garcon. There were no other Colts receivers that could really be considered a threat, Tamme, the tight end or Blair White or well, anybody. The Pats biggest threats are at tight end and in the slot. When they play the two tight ends together, they’re really scary.

This game won’t be 45-3 but the spread is 8 ½ and it’ll be difficult for the Jets to keep it even that close. They can, of course, if they do everything right two weeks in a row. They can probably stop the Pats running game, or, at the very least, keep Green-Ellis and Woodhead in check.

But they’ll still have trouble covering everybody. After Revis and Cromartie, it’s just Brodney Pool and Eric Smith who can avert disaster. And, yes, the Jets can field as many d-backs as they want, but then they’ll leave themselves open to a Pats running game that’s scarier than that of the Colts.

The Pats defense, in terms of yards allowed, looks statistically to be pretty pedestrian. But their scoring defense is statistically much better. Their last two games were easy wins, against Buffalo and Miami, when they allowed just 7 points and then 3 points, but before that they laid one on the Packers 31-27. So the Pats defense can be had.

But the same cannot be said about their offense. The Packers have the best defense in the NFL and they gave up 31 to Brady and company. There are just too many weapons. But the Pats had extraordinarily good luck in that contest. Not only was Aaron Rodgers out, but they got a 71-yard kickoff return from a 303 pound offensive lineman too, after which Brady hit Aaron Hernandez for 6.

While it’s easy to say the Jets should just use the same formula Sunday as they used last week against the Colts, that is, run the ball, play keep away, jam the receivers, mess up Brady’s timing and keep the pressure on him at all times, I think that Sanchez will have to have a much better game and a much bigger impact on the game than he had in Indianapolis.

You’d have to figure the Pats scoring at least 30 points. Unless Sanchez can hit a few to several big plays in the passing game, I can’t imagine the Jets putting up 31. And, if Sanchez can’t throw the ball any better than he did against the Colts, this one could be over very early.

But the Packers reserve quarterback, one Matt Flynn, was the guy throwing three TD’s against the Pats 3 weeks ago, to Jones and Jennings and Kuhn. I could just as easily see Sanchez throwing 3 of his own, to Edwards and Holmes and Tomlinson, for example. Throw in a rushing TD along the way and you’re just a field goal away from 31. It’s not inconceivable.

So it’s conceivable that the Jets could win. It’s just not the most likely outcome. The preceding example, three TD’s passing and one rushing, would assume the Jets were doing everything right offensively, both running the ball and throwing a few over the top every once in a while. The Pats would probably have to make some mistakes…..not inconceivable.

I’d think the Jets would have to get off to a good start as well. That first play of the game sets the tone. A good play, then a good series, then a nice quarter, well, you get the idea, the Jets need to stay close from the opening kickoff, playing aggressively but under control, just like a good team.

At least two other factors might swing this game in a decidedly Green direction. One is hate. The other is Ryan’s unpredictability.

These teams’ hate for each other has been well-documented. In fact you could make a case for nothing ever having been as documented as has been the Jets hate for the Patriots and vice-versa. Brady hates the Jets, Cromartie hates Brady, it’s personal for Ryan, and on and on. One has to wonder what falls under the category of business as usual for Rex Ryan.

Hate can be a tricky thing though. In my own experience, some players just want to pummel their opponent, not particularly caring whether or not they make the play. Others channel that hate towards beating the opponent on the scoreboard, the place where it hurts the most. If the Jets can focus that unhealthy dislike on imagining the Patriots humiliation at having lost this playoff game, then only good things can come of it.

As for unpredictability, Belichick could be expected to have a clear advantage over just about any coach who acts as a reasonable person would act in similar circumstances. Rex Ryan doesn’t fit that mold. He might run because his butt hurts or pass because his pants are falling down. He proved that in the Colts game.

A passing game, hate and ridiculous coaching decisions might just make the difference. It’s not inconceivable.