No Blues in St. Loo

Let’s see if I can wrap my hands around what’s been happening in St Louis these past few days. The baseball contingent of that fair city with the arch once again refused to lose to a Texas Rangers team that kept putting runs on the board all the way through the 10th inning.

When the Rangers finally came up short in their half of the 11th, the Cards finally put them out of their misery in the bottom half, hometown boy David Freese laying down the hammer with a walk-off homer to center, this after he had tied the game at nines in the bottom of the ninth with a 2-out 2-strike triple to right over a flailing Nelson Cruz.

If the St. Louis fans weren’t crazy enough after tying the Series in miraculous fashion in Game 6, they got to enjoy watching Chris Carpenter, their ace throughout the post-season, really and truly squelch any hope the Rangers may have still had . As a bonus, David Freese once again was the hero at the plate, immediately taking Carpenter off the hook with his 2-run tying double in the bottom of the first. The hometown boy became the MVP of course and that arch looked as shiny as it ever had as St. Louis celebrated late into the evening.

If it had been just a few heroes who came through for the Cards, acknowledged stars like Pujols, Berkman and Holliday, it would have been a good thing surely. But this Cards team was so much more than that. There was Freese of course. But there were also guys, young and old alike, named Allen Craig and Rafael Furcal, John Jay and Nick Punto. Skip Schumaker and Yadier Molina, Daniel Descalso and Ryan Theriot, all turning in whatever they could whenever they could.

And they had done it since late August, coming back from 10 ½ back to capture the wildcard, then whipping the Phillies and all their aces in the NLDS, the Brewers and all their sluggers in the NLCS before finally extinguishing those Texas Rangers’ hopes.

Then, as if basking in the light of that Cards magnificent championship, the lowly Rams, that town’s NFL entry, a team that hadn’t managed to win a game all year, slugged out a convincing victory over the team that had been Super Bowl champions as recently as two years ago. They did it with their reserve quarterback and one Steven Jackson, one of the finest running backs in the league when healthy.

Those Rams made the Saints look like, well, themselves at their worst. Drew Brees was terrible. The Saints couldn’t run the ball, the Saints couldn’t pass the ball, and, just when it looked as if the Saints could mount one of their patented comebacks, the Rams said “I don’t think so” and intercepted Brees to extend their unlikely lead even further to 31-14. The Rams would not return home on empty that day. They looked a lot like their baseball brethren, refusing to lose, especially after that fine start.

So, if you’re into baseball, you’ve got to like the Cardinals. If you live in St. Louis and are into baseball, you’ve got to love them. Yeah, Pujols may not return, manager LaRussa is retiring and who knows what else the fates may hold in store for them, but those St. Louis fans will remember this 2011 group for a long, long time.

But now you can be a Rams fan too. Perhaps all they needed was an inspiration, the kind of inspiration only a team such as that Cards team could provide. A lot of teams have talent. All they lack is the will to win. Those Cards had that in their back pockets with their chew.

Maybe that Cards glow will fade in time, but the Rams were on fire on Sunday. They were as determined as they’d been all year. Run the ball, no problem, Steven Jackson alone garnered 159 yards all by himself. Stop the run, no problem….they gave up fewer than 60 yards. Defend the pass, they’d do that too with an interception that was run back for that final TD that put the Saints to bed.

Society being what we are today, not many analysts gave the Rams any credit for the victory, it was too much fun to batter Brees and the Saints. It wasn’t Jackson who excelled, it was the Saints failure to tackle. It wasn’t newly-acquired Brandon Lloyd getting wide open in the end zone, it was lousy coverage by the Saints. It wasn’t a tough D that stopped Brees cold…..well, you get the idea.

Even the greatest Rams fan of all, my brother, had given up on his favorite team by Week 8. He’d been disappointed for too long. He’d seen enough from what had become a totally uninspired group of football players on both sides of the ball. The Rams averaged fewer than 10 points scored while usually surrendering 30 or more.

Ironically, he had picked the lowly Jaguars to cover against the Texans (a push, as things turned out), but he wasn’t quite ready to spend any more love on a Rams team that had shown nothing since the final exhibition game. The same man who had garnered hope from every conceivable Rams indication of talent for seven weeks had finally given up.

What he hadn’t figured on was lightning in a bottle, a city brimming with admiration for its baseball team, hometown heroes making good, and unlikely candidates thrusting themselves into the heart of the fray. He hadn’t figured on the Rams wanting some of that too. He hadn’t figured on that Cards winning glow rubbing off, affecting even those lowly Rams, a team that had seemed impervious to even any suggestion of hope before Sunday.

I’ll bet there had been no room for blues in that St. Louis locker room on Sunday. That Rams football team came to play. Forty-five guys were saying ”Give me some of that”.

Moving Right Along

Michigan State. Thank God. This tournament had nothing. Nothing interrupted every 5 minutes by 2 minutes of commercials. And half the action consisted of foul shots. I kept thinking, “Give me a friggin’ break”! And the network complied. Again and again.

Almost anything could compete with that for my time and attention. Miss Marple, golf, watching grass grow…

But it was nice to see a real live upset. Not that I watched the entire thing, but it was fantastic to see those fellas in green hit shot after shot to absolutely bury the Cardinals. It was sad really, not unlike watching my team, Memphis, get totally overwhelmed by Missouri the other night. Both teams had absolutely not one chance in hell of coming back. The gods of the bounce had abandoned them. And the whistles fell in line nicely.

These running teams are all the same. Well, not really, but it seems that way. All this pressing and scurrying around like madmen, which usually results in a zillion turnovers, thus contributing nicely to their cause. But against a team with guards who can handle all their on-court hijinks, the game reverts to basketball again and they almost invariably lose.

Memphis, Missouri, Minnesota, Louisville, it would seem maybe they should slow down. They might have better luck. It reminds me of our own New Jersey Nets team of yesteryear, a team that pushed the ball all the time very successfully all season long but succumbed in the playoffs to the teams that could play the half-court game.

Of course, the men with the whistles (I didn’t see any female refs) drive me crazy too. (By now you may have guessed that it doesn’t take much to upset my equilibrium). There are always several to many totally inexplicable calls, usually involving the charge vs. the foul but often involving drives to the basket. Sometimes the driver gets totally clobbered with no call and then a touch yields the 3-point play.

I won’t dwell on it but the game itself is flawed. There is too much officiating, but it is by necessity. If not for officials, the Memphises of the world would win every game. So now it’s down to the teams that really play basketball, Connecticut, Villanova, North Carolina and Michigan State. And, if the gentlemen in my bracket know anything at all, North Carolina will win two more games.

It’s somewhat of a mystery to me, too, as to how the Connecticuts and North Carolinas of the world keep accumulating talent year after year. I watched a TV interview with Jim Calhoun, who was asked about his team’s chances (and success) without his star guard, Ty Lawson. He pointed out that they play a little differently but they’re still a very good team, and their replacement guard had more than a little to do with that. Where do they get the bodies?

Now would probably be a good time to point out that U Conn has been accused of some recruiting violation. But that’s not why they recruit as well as they do. It has more to do with the fact that they are who they are. And that is Connecticut. And N. Carolina is who they are. And it’s not much of a step down to Villanova and Pittsburgh, and maybe then the Michigan States of the world.

And what about Duke, one may ask? Well, that’s a real poser, WHAT ABOUT DUKE? Surely Duke should be able to be who they are and get the same athletes these other teams get or even better? Apparently not though. Maybe it’s the academic standards? That’s actually somewhat heartening.

The thought that a university would be that first and foremost and only secondarily be a bastion of hoop-dom makes me think there is justice and integrity in the world, if not necessarily on the basketball courts of America.

If it weren’t for gambling, I have to think the popularity of this tournament would fade a bit. And there would be fewer commercials. But it’s nice to have a diversion in March besides spring skiing, exhibition baseball and even those delightful crocuses.

So it’ll be one more week of hype before the Final Four. I won’t read much of it, of course, but it’ll be nice to read some about Izzo and his Spartans, and hope that they can get by their next game. They surely played some very good basketball Sunday.

Of course some baseball news did manage to find its way to the local sports pages, and most of the news was good for New Yorkers.

The Mets may have all their ducks in a row, but you wouldn’t know it by talking to a lot of their fans. It’ll take some time to get used to the idea of keeping Luis Castillo, not acquiring that big bat, and giving Daniel Murphy a shot. And it’s nice to watch new blood get a shot, this year in the persons of a pitcher named Gee and maybe a utility guy named Malo. I can see the headlines now, “OH GEE”!

And there isn’t much credibility given to Livan Hernandez as the fifth starter. But he’s had success in at least three places before, and he’s looked very good this spring. The relievers have looked pretty good too, and not just K-Rod and Putz…. just about everybody.

The Yankees are way more likeable with Arod off in Vail. It’s been nice to hear from the likes of Jeter and Matsui and Damon rather than some contrivance about Arod. Sometimes stories take a life of their own, and he really has taken a lot of heat when you think about it, not so much for his use of steroids but more for the manner in which he admitted it. And, when you think about it, that’s totally ridiculous.

And, if you can believe reports, there may even be some fannies in those over-priced seats at both new stadiums. So let’s play ball !

Toe-Tappin' to Glory (Days)

“After all, they are the Steelers”. That’s how I ended my Super Bowl prediction column last Friday. I’d maintained that the Cardinals were a bit deficient on character as a team, that they’d quit on a few games during the season, and despite their huge talents, they’d lose in the end.

That’s the way it ended up, of course, but NOT for lack of character. The Cards effort was even throughout, and at a very high level. I’m a little ashamed to have suggested otherwise. That they lost a tough one is bad enough. They made a hell of a game of it.

The game was decided on two plays really; the interception return for 100 yards and a touchdown by James Harrison was a 14-point swing, and the Cards showed a lot of heart to come back from that at all.

In fact, it seemed to me that Harrison should have been a stronger candidate for MVP himself. He also appeared to come up with a Warner fumble recovery in the third quarter, but it was later ruled an incomplete pass. But how can you argue with the selection of Santonio Holmes and those 9 big receptions for 131 yards, including the game-winner?

The second big play was the Holmes toe-tapper, a beautifully-thrown Big Ben TD to Holmes in the corner of the endzone with just 35 ticks on the clock, with Santonio deftly tapping those feet down in bounds while fully extending to make the catch.

But Warner was awesome. Even after that last Holmes back-breaking touchdown, here came Warner again, bravely leading his charges downfield in the face of the black and gold rush. It reminded me of last year’s Giants victory over the Pats, when all Giants fans hearts beat a little faster when the ball was back in Brady’s hands, even with just 20 seconds left.

Kurt brought his team back from 10-0 and, against any other team, would have had a 14-10 lead at the half. But the Steelers were too smart, dropping their best pass rusher Harrison into coverage, thus enabling him to pick off the Warner short toss intended for Boldin. Harrison made like Earl Campbell on the return, behind a cadre of black and gold, and voila! The score became 17-7 Steelers instead.

Pittsburgh extended their lead to 20-7 after the third quarter and it looked as if they could coast the rest of the way and still win. But Kurt would have none of that. The fourth quarter was all Arizona as Warner took advantage of the Steelers two deep safeties to complete pass after pass downfield, completing eight passes in a row to five different receivers for 87 yards and a touchdown to bring the Cards within six.

The Cards defense stiffened and on Warner’s next opportunity, he drove the Cards downfield again but a Cards penalty helped stall the drive at the Pitt 36. The subsequent punt put the Steelers on their own 1-yard line. And, after a Steelers holding penalty in the end zone for a safety, the Cards were really in business.

At the 2:53 mark, Warner threw an incompletion, but then threw a beautifully-timed pass to Fitzgerald over the middle, who proceeded to race downfield, splitting those two deep safeties easily for still another touchdown and, incredibly, the Cards were up by 3 points.

That set the stage for Big Ben’s heroics. Starting from his own 12-yard line because of still another Pittsburgh holding penalty, Roethlisberger found Holmes time after time for big yardage, 14, then 13, then 40 and 6 on his perfect strike to Santonio in the corner with just 35 seconds on the clock.

If Warner was awesome, and he was, I don’t know what to call Roethlisberger. Does he make any throws from the pocket? Isn’t anyone ever open on his first look down the field? It seemed as if every big throw came only after a lot of running and ducking and dodging and pumping.

But Big Ben had been doing it all night; he looked like the greased chicken from “Rocky” only much much bigger. Not only did he use the scramble but he also used the pump fake more than a few times, especially before that 40-yard strike to Holmes to get to the six-yard line.

He did get time on that last throw, though, just standing tall in the pocket and throwing a dart to the corner of the end zone behind three Cards secondary men for the game-winner, as the handful of Cards fans present spent the rest of the evening trying to peer through yellow towels.

It was a great Super Bowl though, one of the best ever…..maybe not on a par with the Giants victory over the Pats last year for sheer suspense, but it had more big plays for sure, and, dare I say it, arguably better players.

For the Steelers, there was Big Ben and Hines Ward, Holmes and Willie Parker and for the defense, Harrison and Polamalu, Farrior and Woodley. The Cards trotted out Warner and Fitzgerald, Boldin and Edgerrin James, and on defense some newer stars such as Dockett and Wilson, Rolle and Rodgers-Cromartie.

It had better announcers too, John Madden and Al Michaels easily surpasing Joe Buck and Troy Aikman and, oh yeah, better music too, although the Boss may have lost his voice somewhere along the way. The pre-game was better than last year’s too, with Costas and Chris Collinsworth, Mike Holmgren and Tony Dungy.

The Boss made Tom Petty look a little tame, and, come to think of it, did a lot of scrambling and arm pumping himself. Bruce exhorted the audience through “Tenth Avenue Freeze-Out”, then “Born to Run” with the big man Clarence and his sax, then “Workin’ On A Dream” before segue-ing nicely into “Glory Days” with Stevie Van Zandt.

Yeah, the Boss was great, but his toe-tappin’ had nothin’ on Santonio’s. We’ll be seeing those feet for another twenty years or so.

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Steelers - Defense and Character

In handicapping this Super Bowl, I’m reminded of that scene from the Hannibal Lecter movies, where Hannibal’s being interviewed by the young Ms. Starling. Hannibal asks the green FBI agent something like “what is he at his ESSENCE, Clarice”? And after she makes two or three dismal guesses, Hannibal says sumthin’ like “NO, Clarice, he COVETS”.

What is Arizona at its essence? THE PASS! Kurt Warner behind a nice big offensive line throwing to the likes of the finest receivers in the land, Larry Fitzgerald and the tough, sure-handed Anquan Boldin, the guy with plates in his face and just keeps coming. And, if you cover them, there’s this troublesome rookie named Breaston.

Yeah, late in the season and in the playoffs, they took the wraps off Edgerrin James and ran the ball, but it was strategic-type running, done only so that they could go back to what they do best. PASS!

And yeah, they score via the run sometimes, with that big bruiser Hightower. They’ll use him on a third or fourth and one. And then, when it’s first down time again, they’ll ordinarily go back to the pass. Once again, in the playoffs, they did some different things with James, but they usually ran after they had already killed their opponent with the pass.

Incredible as it seems to me, their opponents in the playoffs seem not to have respected their passing game enough. A simple thing like double coverage, nobody really did. Even when Boldin was hurt and there was just Fitzgerald and Breaston, Carolina and Philadelphia let him run free against, usually, a tiny little cornerback.

As timing is so important in the passing game, you’d think one of these teams would have checked these big guys at the line. But no, nobody did. And yeah, I know they put these guys in motion so it’s harder to give them a shot at the line of scrimmage, but, still, there were plenty of opportunities to jam these guys and nobody did.

Another way to stop the pass is via the rush, of course. With Warner, getting a guy in his face is most effective, so he has to scramble, usually with just one hand on the ball, extended, looking downfield. But nobody really seemed to focus a rush up the middle.

Atlanta was just overmatched to my mind. Nobody expected them to win and they didn’t. Surprisingly though, they made the score respectable. Carolina “Delhommed” itself to death while trying to execute the stupidest game plan ever devised by anyone against any team. Oh, and this just in, Carolina just hired a new defensive coordinator.

And Philadelphia? They came as close as anyone to beating them but let themselves fall hopelessly behind before charging back and then fizzling. They weren’t able to stop the pass or run. They blitzed quite a bit too, but they were wild, chancy blitzes, hoping against hope Warner wouldn’t find the open guy. He did.

Okay, Clarice, what is the Steelers ESSENCE? DEEE-FENSE!! Yeah, they run the ball, and yeah, they have Big Ben running around, usually on third and long, finding a receiver. But they’re all about defense. The single most consistent thing about the black and gold is that defense.

Zone blitz? Ever hear of it? Of course you have, everybody has. You couldn’t NOT hear it if you tried. Dick LeBeau? Same thing. Steelers and LeBeau, it’s like love and marriage, ham and cheese (I do go on); you get the idea. Yeah, Mike Tomlin might be quite a coach and a hell of a motivator, but the guy who makes every defensive call is Dick LeBeau.

In the zone blitz, you never know who’s coming, but the great thing about it is there’s ALWAYS somebody back. And that “somebody” a lot of times is going to be one of the finest defensive players in the game, a guy named Troy Polamalu.

Ever hear of him? Of course you have, usually in the same breath as “Reed, Harrison and Polamalu”. While they’d make a hell of a law firm, they make even better defense. That Harrison and Polamalu are on the same team makes things even scarier for the Cards, and hopeful for the Steelers.

A few things make me nervous about this game though. One is that a defense almost never can win the game all by themselves. It needs to rest. That goes for any defense. If all a defense gets is pressure and more pressure, it will break.

That’s why Big Ben will be so important in this game, along with Hines Ward, Santonio Holmes and Willie Parker. Parker might be the most important piece of all in this chess match of a game. Parker’s got to take some pressure off that passing game.

The second thing is that the game pits Tomlin against Whisenhunt, the guy he beat out for the head coaching job in Pittsburgh. There is a revenge factor there, yes, but, even more important, don’t you suppose Whisenhunt knows all about the zone blitz? Ya think he’s heard of Dick LeBeau? Whisenhunt has the advantage of knowing all about the Steelers, offense, defense, and special teams.

The third thing that bothers me is that the Steelers seem to have a little trouble against really good quarterbacks. They’re 0 and 2 this year against the Mannings, for example. They’re 0 and 1 vs McNabb. They only lost one other game, against Tennessee, in a meaningless game.

But I have even more concerns about the Cardinals, and it has to do with team character.
This Cards defense especially has quite a history of lying down. The Steelers never lie down.

The Steelers will get their junk touchdowns. The Cards will score but the Cards won’t be able to run. There will be some three and outs, which will put even more pressure on Warner. The Steelers will take the lead, and when they do, they won’t fold. They are, after all, the Steelers.

Who Cares About Pennsylvania Anyway ?

I did it again. In my last article, I spent paragraph after paragraph espousing the good points of the Arizona Cardinals, the defense especially, as everybody knew their offense was incredible. And then I picked the Eagles to win. What a dummy!

My premise was flawed. It was that McNabb would get the time to throw to his myriad of receivers, as he did against seemingly everybody else. And, if he didn’t get the time, he’d run away. I also thought the Eagles secondary was too good; would never allow Fitzgerald and Boldin to beat them.

So, for 3 weeks running now, I’ve been right on the OTHER game but wrong on the Cards. It goes against my nature to get behind a team that totally quit for much of the second half of the season, a team that let the Patriots tar and feather them on a day I had no alternative game to watch, a team that totally ruined one whole Sunday in my life.

With all of that though, the Eagles could have won the game. I guess if Kevin Curtis could catch everything thrown his way, or if guys like Avant and Baskett could get open a little more often, they’d all be making a lot more money. The Eagles SHOULD have scored more points. But, in the end, of course, it was the Eagles defense that lost the game, or, conversely, the Arizona offense that ultimately won the game.

In the end, the Eagles just had to stop the Cards to go to the Super Bowl. They could not. They couldn’t stop Warner and they couldn’t stop the run in the two chances they had in that Cards final drive to stop them. On third and two, they stopped Hightower for just one, but on 4th and 1, they gave up six yards. Then, on a 3rd and 1 later in the drive, they let Hightower get the corner for another first down. They let Hightower kill them on that drive, as the big Cards bruiser caught the 8-yard TD pass for the clincher.

I say “clincher” but, even at that point in the game, the Eagles could have come back. That they didn’t wasn’t McNabb’s fault. Curtis’s drop of still another pass he should have had on 4th down sealed the Eagles fate.

So much for an all-Pennsylvania final. And so much for my handicapping. I have to admit it was a great game; you couldn’t ask for more. And who cares about Pennsylvania anyway?

The Steelers game went pretty much according to form. In the end, it was just too much Polamalu, too much Steelers defense, and too much of Big Ben. Roethlisberger showed why he was a Number 1 pick, consistently buying time by scrambling and finding open receivers downfield.

Polamalu’s INT was really the game-breaker though. Until then, the Ravens still had a hell of a shot. Flacco threw one more INT later on, when he was forced to pass, but, in my eyes, Flacco was pretty damned good yesterday. If he had some receivers like Santonio Holmes, he would have looked even better.

So much for the Championship Games. Now we can look forward to two full weeks of hoopla, hoopla that I studiously ignore year after year. Besides, there are some big things happening in Jets-land, and pitchers and catchers report to spring training in about a month.

The Jets just selected Rex Ryan as their next head coach. If anybody can put a charge into that moribund Jets defense, it’s Rex Ryan. I have no idea what he’ll be able to pull off on the other side of the ball, but, at the very least, maybe he’ll be able to rein in crazy Schottenheimer and his totally inaccurate old-man of a quarterback.

And, if Favre won’t be coming back (please God), Jets fans will probably be in for some crazy games in the short term, until the management can decide on somebody else. If the Jets could pick up a breakaway threat at wide receiver, things might even start to look rosy, or rosier anyway. Oh, and did I mention that Tom Brady will be back next year?

Best for Jets fans though, is not having to watch Eric Mangini process his way through another press conference. We might just even see a little emotion when his team throws in a clinker or two, or three, as they did this year. Maybe he’ll even do a Singletary and pull his pants down!

The Giants, though, they finally lost Spagnolo. That will be a big hit on the defense, especially if the new guy brings in a totally different scheme. I’m hoping they keep the same scheme. It sure seems to work, and it’ll work all that much better when Osi Umenyiora returns. (This just in-the Giants are promoting Bill Sheridan from within-YAY!!)

What a crazy year though! Miami and Chad Pennington come back from the dead. Two rookie quarterbacks, Flacco and Matt Ryan, lead their teams to the playoffs. Arizona and their chronically inept owners are going to the Super Bowl. Tony Dungy quits, Chucky gets fired down in Tampa. And what about that crazy Wildcat offense!

Pretty soon, we may even be able to turn our thoughts to the basketball season. Not that the NY pro teams are doing anything noteworthy yet, but D’Antoni gives the fans at least some hope and Brook Lopez, the Nets rookie center, is starting to show why he was a Number 1 pick.

In college basketball, there won’t be much going on locally. Seton Hall is getting killed in the very tough Big East and Rutgers, while showing a lot of fight, can’t really be expected to do a lot. Even the Rutgers women’s team is having a tough time in the early going.

Thank God for baseball and the Mets! Francisco Rodriguez, J.J. Putz, a real live relief staff – prospects for a NY World Series.

A Pennsylvania Weekend

On a day like today when it’s about 5 degrees in New Jersey, it’s hard to believe they’re still playing football in the NFL. Both Conference Championship Games will be played on Sunday, of course, and if I had my druthers (I usually don’t), I’d be headed to Phoenix.

It’ll be nice in Phoenix, of course. The Sunday forecast is sunny with temperatures ranging from 44 to 77 degrees. That probably favors Arizona, although it’s hard to imagine that good weather would hurt the guys used to playing in bad. The Eagles are favored by 2 ½ in Vegas at the moment and the over/under stands at a whopping 50 ½. Although I’m not betting, based on this data, the score figures to be sumthin’ like 26-24 Philadelphia.

I’m not going to make the same mistake 3 times in a row. I had bet against Phoenix in both Weeks 1 and 2 of the playoffs and of course lost twice. Not only did I lose but the second game was over early as the Cards absolutely pounded Carolina, making Jake Delhomme look ridiculous while scoring again and again in the first quarter and half.

And Carolina’s game plan, if you could call it that, was stupid! Really, there’s no better way to characterize it. They seemed to be covering Larry Fitzgerald, Arizona’s absolutely stellar wide receiver, with one man (when he was covered at all) all afternoon. On the other side of the ball, they tried to play catch up way too early, passing instead of running, and just played right into the Cards’ hands when Delhomme did his best impersonation of the worst quarterback to ever play the game.

Their first playoff game win, against Atlanta, was more indicative of their team performance. And yet, even in that game, Michael Turner, Atlanta’s ballyhooed running back, looked as if he could never get started, and wound up going east and west all day.

Still though, they did stop the run even if Atlanta looked remarkably bad in their execution of it. They only won by a score of 30-24 in that one and the usual suspects were instrumental in the win, Warner and Fitzgerald and Boldin, but there were also at least some vestiges of a running game with Edgerrin James, and even more surprising was their game toughness, as they forced their way ahead in the third and fourth quarters, scoring on a fumble recovery and runback from Antrel Rolle and then sacking Matt Ryan for a safety.

Toughness was the last thing anyone ever could have expected from the same team that basically just lay down on national TV versus the Pats (the snow angel game). Even in their last game of the year, while they picked up their level of play to beat Seattle, it wasn’t really extraordinary.

Philadelphia, though, knows what to expect. They’ve seen that defensive front, and have already expressed an admiration for Antonio Smith and his friends. When you really take a look at that defense, it’s got some real talent.

Their leading tackler by far is relatively unsung linebacker Karlos Danby while they get pressure on the QB from both linemen and linebackers. The secondary is strong too, and Antrel Rolle seems especially to have come alive in these playoff games. But they’re all playing well, Rogers-Cromartie and Adrian Wilson and Antonio Smith.

Knowing what to expect might be half the battle. The Cards surprised Atlanta and the Panthers too. I don’t think they’ll surprise Philly’s gigantic offensive line, especially in the passing game. McNabb will find targets among his ample bevy of receivers while their running game and junk dumpoffs to Westbrook will continue to work. Arizona will stop the run, but unless they can get to McNabb, it’ll be a long afternoon for the Cards defense.

The Eagles secondary is a good one, featuring Asante Samuel and the headstrong Brian Dawkins, and I’d expect them to have some success, but not as much as in their first game, won by the Eagles 48-20. In that game, the Cards had already wrapped the division. That makes a huge difference.

Expect a slugfest, but Eagles pressure on Warner will make the difference. I don’t believe the Cards will be able to pressure McNabb. He’ll still put up 3TD’s and figure another 2 or 3 field goals from Akers. That’s 30. Even if the Cards play better than they did the first time, I can’t see them being very efficient with Eagles in Warner’s face all day.

It’ll be close, but I’d expect Philly to pull ahead and then shutdown a closing Arizona flurry to make things respectable. The Eagles have taken the measure of Minnesota and the G-Men to get this far, a tougher road than Atlanta/Carolina and they won’t play second-fiddle to the upstart Cards. Make it 30-26 in the Eagles favor. For you gamblers, that’s the Eagles and the “over.”

The Pittsburgh weather will be distinctly worse than Arizona’s, with light snow forecasted and temperatures ranging from 15 to 28 degrees. That won’t bother either team though and it’ll be another defensive gem. This is the third meeting between the two and the Steelers have won both. I expect them to have success a third time, as difficult as that may seem.

The Ravens won’t be able to run against that Steelers defense while I think Willie Parker will do some damage on the other end. The Ravens have come a long way with a rookie quarterback, and they’re bound for a letdown after their big wins over Miami and especially over Tennessee.

I think Roethlisberger will prove the difference between a veteran in a big game and a rookie. Joe Flacco has been great so far, and, as a Jersey guy, it’s hard not to root for him, but this will be his first Conference Championship game.

It’s the year of Pennsylvania. Expect the Steelers to emerge victorious once again over the Ravens by 23-13. (Pitt and “over”).