Ya Can't Go Back?

Who says ya can’t go back? Tell that to Jason Giambi. Tell that to Tom Glavine. And now Ken Griffey. Wouldn’t it be nice for all these once-greats to become future greats too? These are three players you have trouble rooting against. Even when Giambi was a Yankee, I couldn’t do anything but wish him well.

It’s shaping up as quite a season….one to remember. That is, if you like the Yankees and Dodgers. As far as I can see, if the Dodgers manage to get goofy Manny, they’ll be big trouble for any team, even the Yankees.

The Dodgers have re-signed Casey Blake and Rafael Furcal. And they just picked up a very nice second baseman in Orlando Hudson. They’ve got a pretty fair starting rotation and some very steady relievers, a team you can be sure that Joe Torre will use to his advantage, and theirs for that matter.

And who will be their competition? The friggin’ Padres? The Rockies? Yeah, there will be Arizona to contend with but that shouldn’t be all that difficult for a team with a lot of returning veterans, a team that came pretty close last year to winning it all. The Giants could make some noise though.

Lincecum, Cain, Zito, Johnson, Sanchez and Lowry….they’re the starters for the San Francisco Giants this year. Not too shabby, Jerry. Of course, the lineup doesn’t score too many runs, but maybe they won’t have to. I can definitely see the Giants winning a lot of games this year, and, once again, that NL West is nothing to write home about.

The Yankees will have it a little tougher. Make that a lot tougher. The Rays won the division last year, of course, and that was with some guys having bad years. The Red Sox just re-signed Varitek. That should make the pitching staff a lot happier, and, if nothing else, he is the captain.

Pedroia will be back, probably stronger than ever, and then there will be Big Papi coming off a down season. There’s another pretty fair pitcher on board in Brad Penny, and I see Rocco Baldelli listed on their depth chart behind J.D. Drew in right. The only position player on their team that I don’t like is Julio Lugo at short. And Orlando Cabrera is still out there…..

But it’d be a mistake to count out the Yankees. That’s really quite a lineup they’ll have. And one that should have a great deal of motivation to finally win something. I won’t run through the pitching again. We all know who they are. I don’t like their centerfield outlook, but hey, Nick Swisher will be a much tougher out than Melky ever was.

I’d look for better seasons from some of these Yankees too. They could have a lot of guys having last hurrahs. Godzilla, his knees have been fixed. Posada, he’ll be back, Damon, he should be just as good as ever, probably a little better.

A good pitching staff should help energize that entire team. In fact, it’s hard to believe the Yankees could have been so stupid as to waste an entire year with just two or three leigtimate starters. But then, Cashman was never that bright. If there’s a weak link on the Yankees, he’s it. Money can’t cure everything.

It’s a shame though that it looks as if it’ll be the same contenders again. But then it always looks that way. Who would’ve believed the Rays could go to the World Series last year? Except my brother, of course. And there were the Rockies before that.

Dark horses? I don’t know but I kind of like what the Oakland A’s have been doing, and I think the Marlins and the Cards might finally do something too.

The A’s added Matt Holliday besides Giambi and that should add about fifty to sixty homers right there. They’ll have a very improved lineup and it looks as if the team won’t be moving so that should give them some stability too. I’m not that crazy about their pitching staff but Billy Beane always seems to come up with something. And look for Jack Cust to put more than a few over the wall.

They’ll have the Angels to contend with though, so I wouldn’t look for them to win anything outright, but who’s to say they couldn’t grab the wildcard? The AL East teams will be knocking the heck out of one another so I wouldn’t imagine anybody’s record in that division will be too overpowering.

In the AL Central, there will be the Indians, another team I have hopes for, and the White Sox and Twins will be there too at the end. But somehow, those teams never seem to have much luck. So, the A’s might just have a chance to sneak in there. And if Giambi can help put them over the top, so much the better.

Just as the AL East teams will be knocking one another about, a similar situation should develop in the NL East with the Phillies, Mets and an improved Marlins team. The Cubs should win the NL Central again, but there’s not much else to contend with in the Central. So the Giants might just have a shot at a wildcard too.

Giambi may bring the A’s back but Glavine and Grifffey will have their hands full to have any effect whatsoever on the Braves and Mariners. I’m as romantic as the next guy, but there’s a limit to what I can believe. The Mariners have a LOT of question marks..

The Braves had nothing last year. They look to have nothing this year too. Not that this makes me very unhappy. If there is a team I hate in the NL as much as the Yankees in the AL, it’s the Braves.

But I’ll be hoping Glavine can make his mark on them anyway, while I wait for Griffey and Giambi to put thirty or so over the wall.

Holy Cow ! Winning is Risky !!

Holy Cow! Almost lost against the backdrop of NFL playoff games have been some very interesting baseball developments, not just signings but also the behind-the-scenes skullduggery among the various contenders for the talent that’s still out there.

For me, two signings take precedence. Both of them relate to the Yanks recent finalization of their humongous contract with Mark Teixeira, the wunderkind first baseman, who of course got 22.5 million dollars per year for eight long years.

First, I’m very happy for Jason Giambi, who Teixeira is replacing. Jason landed back in Oakland, the team for which he built his formidable reputation as a hitter for both average and power. That Oakland legacy was enough to inspire the Yankees to sign Giambi seven years ago for record numbers.

Sadly for Jason and Yankees fans, that signing never really bore fruit in terms of World Series victories. The prevailing remembrances for most New Yorkers of Giambi’s New York service will be steroids and a fervent wish that the Yanks had kept Tino.

But for the true baseball aficionado, Jason Giambi was a potent presence in the Yanks lineup, more than capable of knocking one over the wall or, at the very least, to draw a base on balls after coaxing about ten more pitches out of their opponent’s starter. If he had any speed on the bases, or anywhere for that matter, Jason would have been even more valuable.

Giambi will be missed in New York, I suspect, much as Tino Martinez was before him. Not because Mark Teixeira can’t play the game, but just as a Yankees presence and overall good guy and teammate. Giambi was always affable with the media, too, even after some rough nights in the field.

But his gaffes in the field and his lack of speed on the base paths severely limited his overall value and suppressed his runs scored quite severely. Surely though, he was valued by his teammates and management as a hard-nosed player who wanted to win. But in hindsight, he surely was not the player the Yanks had envisioned.

The second signing I’ve been anxiously awaiting took place yesterday. That would be the Indians signing of a true Yankees disaster, Carl Pavano, probably the biggest mistake the Yankees, or any team for that matter, has ever made in free agency except perhaps for the Albert Belle fiasco.

Pavano was beset by injuries throughout the term of his 4-year $50 million contract with the Yanks and pitched just 26 starts in four years. That’s basically 2 mill per start. Even the Roger Clemens partial-year deal doesn’t compare in sheer magnitude of loss.

But what makes this deal most intriguing is its structure. It’s for one year only at 1.5 mill, but Carl can make as much as 5.3 mill with 18 starts, not a bad deal for anyone concerned really. What makes this even better is that Pavano may be pitching against the Yankees in the middle of April, at the new stadium, as the Indians third starter behind Cliff Lee and Fausto Carmona.

Those two signings typify the risk involved for teams and players in free agency. It appears that only the major league players, like New York, Boston, Philly, LA…. can even contend for the really big earners, your Teixeiras and Mannys and Sabathias. Cleveland can’t compete for Sabathia or Burnet maybe but they can wind up picking up a potentially great pitcher for fair value.

If Pavano doesn’t make his starts number, he walks away with just 1.5 million. But, if he does win 15 or more games, and as he’s already undergone the arm surgery, his chances of doing just that are quite good, he’ll make, say, 5 million. That’s just 300K per win, and, figuring 25 starts, just 200k per start.

It’s good for the game that a team such as the Indians can still pick up a bargain and actually compete. And it’s just as good, if not better, that a team such as the Yankees or Boston can make such huge mistakes. Surely a Milwaukee can’t be so colossally stupid!

That’s not to say that the signings of Sabathia and Burnet and Teixeira are stupid. But the risk is pretty large. Ask yourself what are the chances that Teixeira will put in even close to eight full seasons. He’s a big fellow, he’ll be 29 in April and he’ll be playing the lion’s share of his contract years in his thirties, the last three years in his 35’s, so to speak.

Burnet’s getting 82.5 mill for 5 years and he’s already 32. Sabathia got better money, 7 years for 161 mill. He’s another big guy but he’s only 28 and he seems to throw effortlessly most of the time. The chances are pretty good, though, that all three free agents won’t finish their contracts in one piece.

To say the very least, the Yankees will be paying 3 or 4 times the Indians rate per win, and waaaay more than that for RBI’s. Ryan Garko, Cleveland’s first baseman, had 90 rbi’s in 2008 and 14 homers in 495 at bats. Teixeira averages over 100 ribbies per year and is a career .290 hitter. Garko makes about 420K. Their best player, Grady Sizemore, makes about 3 mill and their biggest bust is Travis Hafner, who only pulls down about 8 million.

What the big teams are really paying for is the surety of winning, the percentage chances of winning it all. That’s why the New York-Boston battle is so intriguing. Only God and the Yankees know what winning the title is really worth. It must exceed the marginal cost of these players, especially if you introduce the factor that these contracts are usually insured.

In the last ten years, big-market teams have made the World Series contests 12 times. But the little guys have made it 8 times, including Tampa Bay, Colorado, St Louis twice, Houston, Florida, Arizona and Atlanta.

Money alone won’t always make the difference. Holy Cow!

Big Men - Big Times

The times were similar for both teams. One team had climbed to the top of their division after five months of mostly turmoil, only to find themselves hanging onto the lead by a thread. The other had made the playoffs for thirteen straight years but were in danger of getting swept by their most hated rival.

Each team would weather the storm. Each of them would accept their challenge and survive. And each would have some heroes of the day, but, in each case, the biggest hero would be their big man.

For the Mets, it would again be Carlos Delgado, whose heroics have been so numerous, I half expect him to come out of the dugout in gleaming armor and wielding a lance instead of a bat. To borrow from Richard Adams in his great story Watership Down, Delgado’s walk-offs and game winning hits have been, as the rabbits would say, “hrair”, which means a great many, as rabbits can only count to four.

For the Yanks. it would be Jason Giambi, who, despite his prodigious numbers this year, had been branded most recently as a non-performer in big spots, as had his even more infamous teammate, Alex Rodriguez. The Giambino had been benched quite a bit as of late, as his fielding and running game lagged somewhat behind his bat, which was saying a lot.

As this writer has most often been a Yankee-hater, and as I was otherwise occupied for the Yankees afternoon game, I only heard about Jason’s big hits after the game. The last thing I heard on the radio was Susan Waldman somewhat viciously panning Arod and Giambi for their failures to hit with runners in scoring position. That reaming was followed by Arod flying out with runners on first and third. Giambi was spared only because he wasn’t yet in the game.

The next thing I know, one of the gym rats is running around with an ear to ear grin, for not only had the Yanks won, but they did it against Jonathan Papelbon. Only later did I discover that it was my favorite Yankee who did the damage. And, to be honest, I guess I really don’t hate THESE Yankees. Not these pitcher-less and Posada-less Bombers, whose biggest hero for the year had been Mike Mussina.

And not THESE Yankees, who had converted Joba Chamberlain from the holder to limited starter, then full-blown starter and now slated to become the holder again after his time on the DL. Not THESE Yankees who actually looked forward to Carl Pavano’s return, with good reason as it turned out.

And not to belabor a point, but the boys in pinstripes are still holding on, notwithstanding Cano’s massive inconsistency, Arod’s fall from grace, Damon’s misadventures in the outfield and Jeter’s off-year. It’s easier to count the blameless, only the Moose and Bobby Abreu of the core group, and of course the ageless one, Mariano Rivera, in any event decidedly less than “hrair”.

But the main reason they’re still breathing a breath of life today is Jason Giambi. In the biggest game of the year, on the very precipice of disaster, the Giambino was the man once again, mustache and all, coming off the bench to destroy the hated Red Sox and their peerless (if tainted in Yankee-land) closer Papelbon.

It’s almost always the big men who draw the attention in any sport, and it’s no different for baseball. And no big man personifies that relationship more than Carlos Delgado. Since July 13^th, the Mets have only lost four games in which Carlos Delgado has had an RBI. And with the Mets relief staff, that’s saying an awful lot.

Delgado has, if my math is right, 43 ribbies since July 13^th. But that doesn’t really tell the story. He’s had at least one ribbie in 20 different games, and the Mets are 16-4 in those games. And, in many of those, Delgado has had the walk-off home run or the game-winning RBI. So he’s been, um, good.

Delgado always has a smile, it seems, even when he’s not doing so well. It’s really a pleasure to see him make some numbers for his new contract, and playing the complete game at first base too. And nobody celebrates like the Mets, and especially when Delgado’s doing well.

You have to admit, the Mets are a cool team to root for, and Delgado’s maybe the coolest. The big guy, playing like the big guy in that batters box and around that keystone bag. He strides (slides) back towards that dugout, big smile, amused that he can still be the man, at least right now, and all those big hits will go a long way towards ensuring his future too.

Even the manager’s cool. If Delgado has been Lancelot, then Manuel has been Merlin. It really is extraordinary the presence of the man when talking baseball, so comfortable, like talking to the local hardware store guy about your patio, for your seven houses.

And the big man is certainly making him look good. The record’s good, they’re up by a game instead of down by a game, and Carlos’s two dingers had a little bit to do with that. Those Phillies, they ain’t so baaaad.

So there it is. Giambi and Delgado, two big men in New York making their presence felt in that lineup. The rest of the guys can be faltering, on both teams, guys like Beltran and Arod, but these big first basemen can take you where you want to go, all by themselves sometimes. At most they need just one or two other guys to do something…..walk, get a little base hit, a sacrifice, whatever, and the big men can do the rest.

They say timing is everything in life. And so it is for these two big fellas. A little hot streak for them both right now, the Yanks chasing the Red Sox and the Mets trying to just hold on, would be perfect.