Small-Ball Prevails in Series

It’s interesting to look back sometimes on these posts of mine to see where my mind was a week ago and where it is now. In my last column that was almost two weeks ago, I reflected on the Cards being the team to beat, that it was the Cards who had all those no-name guys who would hurt you.

Since then, the Cards did manage to make the Brewers look awful and then took Game 1 of the Series behind a lot of pitching and one of those no-name guys, one Allen Craig, who hit a little flare to right against Alexi Ogando, a Texas guy much too fond of his fastball, to drive in the winning run in the Cards 3-2 victory against the Rangers in St. Louis.

But, last night, the Rangers showed that they could play some small-ball too. Rangers second-sacker Ian Kinsler got a hell of a jump on Cards closer Jason Motte in the 9th and just got his hand in to touch the corner of the bag ahead of Rafael Furcal’s swipe tag. Cards catcher Yadier Molina made the perfect throw but it wasn’t enough to nail Kinsler.

Then, a guy named Elvis Andrus kept the line moving along with another single, sending Kinsler to third and taking second on the somewhat-muffed relay. All of a sudden, it was second and third and nobody out. Both runners would wind up scoring on sac-flies from Hamilton and Young and that was it for the day as far as scoring would go. Rangers closer Neftali Feliz made sure of that.

So the American League entry can play small-ball too. They’ve also got some guys who can hit in the clutch, some guys who can steal bases and play defense too. Their shortstop Elvis Andrus made one play that looked impossible and another that just was as fine a play as you’ll ever see.

Until that ninth inning, it looked as if the Cards would once again employ the same method of destroying an opponent’s will as they had been doing all the way down the stretch of the regular season, take the lead and trot out one fine reliever after another to shut down that opposing offense.

If Kinsler didn’t steal second, if Andrus didn’t take second on the throw, the Rangers would have been down 2-0 in games on their way back to Texas. But they put the pressure on, they hung tough, much as the Cards had been doing with regularity. The Rangers got the big hits and made the big plays. Momentum now has to favor the Rangers. They beat the LaRussa formula.

That Neftali Feliz looked so unhittable in the ninth didn’t hurt either, as far as inspiring confidence in the Rangers’ chances. Feliz was the man, not Motte. The Rangers won’t fear Jason Motte anymore.

I had been thinking the Cards still had an advantage in starting pitching, if only because they had three lefties going against all those right-handed hitters of the Cardinals, especially Pujols and Holliday. But, a quick look at the split-stats for Matt Harrison, the Rangers lefty who’ll be starting Game 3, shows that he’s better against righties than lefties, in terms of opposing batting and slugging percentages. The Rangers could easily take Game 3.

Derek Holland, Game 4’s probable Rangers lefty starter, may have a lot more trouble against that Cards right-handed lineup. I’d imagine the Cards would tie the Series up in Game 4 at two apiece. He’ll be facing Edwin Jackson for St. Louis, someone who has been effective all year but with limited experience in the playoffs. If the Cards did lose this one, they’d be down 3-1 in the Series, an event that these Cards won’t let happen.

Game 5 should also go to the Cards as Chris Carpenter is a much better pitcher than he has shown thus far in the first game. Facing C.J. Wilson again, who I thought pitched over is head in Game 1, Carpenter should send the Series back to St. Louis with the Cards holding a 3-2 lead.

Then it’ll be Garcia-Lewis again in Game 6 in St. Louis. The Rangers obviously won Game 2 with the same SP matchup so it’s not inconceivable that, with the Rangers’ backs firmly against the wall, as they were to a lesser extent last night, the Texas contingent can tie the Series at 3 apiece, setting up still another Harrison-Lohse matchup in Game 7.

Your guess is as good as mine as to which of these two tough teams will take that one. Whatever happens though, it’ll be a team that can play small-ball, good defense, steals, taking the extra base and getting tough at-bats in tough situations.

The weather has negated the power of both these teams so far, both games in St. Louis having been played in weather in the 40’s with a stiff wind. Pujols’s drive especially last night would have soared out of the park on any normal baseball night.

The Rangers definitely broke through in a big way with last night’s come-from-behind win. They beat LaRussa’s formula, they beat their feared closer, they fielded the ball better and they were better on the basepaths. They have the closer to watch out for now. They have more experience in the playoffs and they’ve had their taste of failure in last year’s World Series vs. the Giants.

That’s a lot of advantages, a lot of stuff that’s hard to evaluate. I now think that the only way the Cards win this Series is if they take 2 out of 3 in Texas, a tough test against this Rangers team that loves to play at home, a fact that I heard Josh Hamilton re-affirm today, and in just about those same words.

Of course, there’s also NFL football still rolling along. The Jets, borderline sociopaths all, will lose to the Chargers if there’s any justice in this world. The Giants should have their way with Fish.

There'll Be No Crab Yankees

They’re still the Evil Empire. They always will be. I’m reminded of this today as Yankee fans are picking on the Mets at every opportunity. It’s not good enough to have your team finally break through after years and years and millions and millions spent on virtually nothing. They have to remind everybody how bad the Mets are.

And why? Francesa seems to be obsessing about relief pitching. He of course hasn’t watched a single pitch so far this year and is relying on his sycophant for info that he’s frankly too intimidated to give. He likes his job. He knows Francesa doesn’t want to hear anything good. My brother talks about Vegas odds, which is okay. Vegas didn’t pick the Saints either.

But I’m reminded too today of how much more interesting the Mets announcers are than those of the Yankees. They can actually say what they like, including pointing out Dwight Gooden’s recent problem with the law. But there is a chemistry there on that Mets broadcast team that’s just absent from Yankees broadcasts. And they can change the people but they’ll still be laboring under the strict guidelines of the Evil Empire.

Santana’s pitching today and I’m watching him now getting screwed on the corners by the home plate umpire. But he’s cool. He’s focused, as he is always. But he just gave up his first walk and the pitch wasn’t that close. Hmmm.

You can probably tell I’m psyched for the season opener. This is probably maximum psych time for me as my fantasy draft is tonight, something I always look forward to, and I’ll be drafting eighth in a ten-team league. This presents some interesting problems. It’s a good thing I’ve thought about it too, my objectives, my exclusions (any and all Yankees) and the importance of winning as compared to having fun.

There are only a few locks really. And some of those locks are guys I wouldn’t pick with a gun to my head. Arod for example. Teixeira’a another. Even CC Sabathia, a longtime Crab favorite (my fantasy team name) will be summarily shunned as he has joined the bad guys. But there are some very nice Yankee fantasy players, I must admit, in just about every one of the first five rounds.

One of the biggest factors though in selecting is that cost/benefit ratio of winning versus having fun. Prince Fielder, for example, has been a Crabs mainstay year after year. He’s even more valuable in this league as strikeouts count against you and walks are a positive. Fielder was terrific last year too and could be even better this year, still relatively young but with all that experience and maybe even a better Milwaukee team. And he’ll probably be there at pick 8.

But will he still be there at 13? I don’t think so. So it’s either pick him at 8 or I don’t get him. I figure 1-7 will be Pujols, Hanley Ramirez, Arod, Utley, Braun, Longoria and Teixeira. But Teixeira may still be there at 8 if fellow players feel about Matt Kemp as I do, which is over-rated. One good thing about passing him up is that there’re seemingly a million good fantasy first-basemen, any one of whom could have a bigger year than Teixeira.

But Fielder’s a first-sacker too. Do I really want to win this fantasy year? There surely aren’t too many shortstops or second-basemen that I’d like to have. And there are really just 3 catchers who seem to tower above the rest. Mauer’s availability at 8 presents a big problem, not just because he was the American League MVP but because he just got a huge contract, much more than I would have paid for him, and that tends to wreck a fella’s motivation, y’know?

Then Fielder is rated above some other very good players, Tulowitzki, Cabrera, and our own David Wright. Can David shake his power numbers in spacious Citi? And they did lower the fence or something, didn’t they? And he did hit .307. But he only had 72 rbi’s. That’s awful. If he improves 50%, that’s still just 108 and who improves 50% under almost any circumstances?

Tulowitzki is an interesting possibility. He’s a shortstop, a position of scarcity, an he had very nice numbers all around last year. But it was a career year for him, even though it has been a short career. He was hurt in 2008 and had relatively horrible numbers for half a season. The year before though, he had a very respectable OPS of .838 in his first full year as a player. But that stat is 100 points lower than he achieved last year. So what should be my expectation? It’s a real puzzler but I’d say somewhere between the .838 and .930, which would be a very respectable year indeed from a shortstop.

So Tulowitzki is still alive for consideration. I can’t take Jeter. I just can’t. Talk about career years!

Moving down the rankings, dangerous in itself, and having already passed not only on Yankees but also on Miguel Cabrera, who I don’t personally like, there is Ian Kinsler, a second baseman, also in short supply, and he’s had four relatively good years in a row. He’s a definite possibility, especially since his numbers should improve with Josh Hamilton coming back to that Texas lineup.

Should I consider a pitcher? Lincecum, Halladay and Greinke have a healthy ranking over the rest of the field. But they all pitched a lot of innings last year. And I don’t like taking pitchers early. They’re all tainted goods, y’know, from a fantasy viewpoint. Although I recognize the need for good pitchers, I think the variability of their numbers is totally unacceptable. I think, for the most part, you have to be lucky with pitchers, and I’ll be checking out their innings pitched, you can be sure.

But, no matter what happens, and there’s always a surprise, at least I won’t have any stinking Yankees.