Since Saturday night, all I’ve been hearing is that Aaron Rodgers had an uncharacteristically bad day. Otherwise, they seem to say, the Giants could’ve lost their battle with the #1 seed and 15-1 Green Bay Packers. They outline each and every time Rodgers missed a pass or one of his receivers dropped a ball.
I say “bullshit.”
Rodgers missed the passes because he was out-of-synch all game long. The best passer in the world was only normal when he had pass-rushers up his butt all afternoon. His receivers got a little jumpy when they had defensive backs and linebackers growing out of their backs. Packer running backs found a lot of tough going and every Packer had to make sure they held onto that football.
Pressure. That’s what stopped the Packers. Relentless all-day-long hits and eleven guys paying attention, an offense the Packers kind of knew they couldn’t stop, a quarterback named Manning making all the throws and making all the right calls. The combination of all that was just too much for the green and gold, even at home.
There would be very few leaps into the stands that day.
I had called it exactly right. I had said that it would take the best defense in the league to stop Aaron Rodgers and all those nifty receivers, Finley and Jennings and Jordy Nelson and Donald Driver. And it did take some really great defense to do it. I think the Giants have the best defense in the league. Who’s better….the Ravens?
I don’t think so.
Not the guys from Baltimore, not the 49ers and certainly not the New England Patriots. The Giants are the best defense in the league. The 49ers will have something to say about that this weekend but it wasn’t the Niners defense that won their game against Drew Brees and the Saints, although for almost 3 quarters, they showed they were awfully tough.
In the final quarter, the Niners were getting picked apart. It was an almost miraculous performance by the Niners offense that saved the Niners day. Alex Smith and Vernon Davis saved the Niners. The Saints defense couldn’t stop a perfectly-thrown goal line pass to Vernon Davis. They couldn’t stop Alex Smith running with the ball. The Saints dared Alex Smith to beat them and so he did.
The Niners may beat the Giants but it won’t be their defense stifling Manning and those wide-outs. They may stop the run pretty well but the Giants should get their points. Hell, they may even be able to run the ball, though the wise would be wise to not count on such a happening.
Even Eli and all his weapons will have trouble penetrating that sure to be pumped-up Niners defense in San Francisco. But I think they eventually will. It’ll probably come late in the game, after having pressured that Niners secondary all day long.
The G-Men will eventually take the lead and hold it. Alex Smith and Vernon Davis won’t beat these Giants. The home field of that City by the Bay won’t beat them. After all, they’ve already come through that gigantic structure in Dallas and that frozen tundra in Green Bay. Those la-la Niners fans won’t shake them. It’s not likely anyway.
What might be likely is a bit of a Giants letdown. They’ve been through a lot of pressure themselves. This will be their umpty-ump must-win game in a row. And it’ll be the first time in these playoffs that they won’t be facing an acknowledged defense-killer at quarterback, no Romo, no Rodgers, just a guy named Smith.
And they’ve faced these Niners before. To a man, they think they should have won that game. That previous experience can do two things. It can build up confidence or it can lead to a little bit of complacency on the field. After all, it won’t be Rodgers guiding those Niners….just Alex Smith.
Our heroes will also be facing arguably the best head coach in the league. Jim Harbaugh doesn’t make mistakes. He’s no Mike Smith, the Falcons head coach, the 4th and 1 wonder. He’s no Jason Garrett either. He’s probably on a par with that Green Bay head coach who won 15 games this season.
Harbaugh will keep that team motivated. He’ll probably figure a way of getting to Eli. Harbaugh will likely find some chink in that Giants armor. It’ll probably be centered around the Niners running game and that horse Frank Gore.
But the Falcons had a horse of a runner in Michael Turner. He didn’t do much. And the Falcons had a great receiving corps…Julio Jones and Roddy White and that venerable Tony Gonzalez at tight end. That contingent scored zero versus the Giants. Sure, Mike Smith was a handicap but even the best head coach would’ve had trouble with the Giants that day.
The Niners though have some Smiths of their own, some formidable Smiths, not just Alex but also Aldon and Justin in that steely Niners front seven. Justin is especially scary. Anybody who witnessed him charging through that Saints offensive line won’t take anything for granted this weekend. The Harbaugh Niners are really tough and play really hard.
Unlikely as it seems to me, the Giants are currently the underdog in this matchup by 2 ½ points, no doubt due primarily to hosting the game in San Fran. The over-under is currently 42. That means the rest of the world thinks the Niners will come out on top by a score of 22 ¼ to 19 ¾.
I don’t think so. Yeah, I know all about the brilliant Niners coaching and their terrific kicking game and their stingy defense but the Giants ain’t chopped liver either. Harbaugh acknowledged as much the other day. He seemed to be of the same mind as Green Bay when they decided to on-sides kick in a tie game, that they would need an extra possession to win.
If the better team prevails, it’ll be the Giants game.
Showing posts with label Rodgers. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Rodgers. Show all posts
Tuesday, January 17, 2012
Thursday, August 27, 2009
Who's the Fantasy Number 1 ?
Drew Brees? Peyton Manning? Tom Brady? Aaron Rodgers? All week, and even longer), these names and others keep buzzing by my head. Yesterday, while fixing the roof and cleaning the gutters, the question was all-consuming, who should be by number 1 overall pick in our 2009 Squander Fantasy Football League?
Now, some of you are probably asking yourself why I’m focusing on quarterbacks. What about the consensus #1 pick, Adrian Peterson, the great Minnesota running back? There are some great runners out there, and aren’t you concerned about the shortage of running backs, the traditional approach of fantasy pundits for the last ten years or so?
Well, first you have to understand that, while most fantasy leagues award passing TD’s with just 4 points, which tends to equalize a quarterback’s value with running backs and receivers, Squander Football insists on awarding a TD with 6 points; a touchdown is a touchdown, right?
Well, I’m ok with that notion, what the hell, we can come to grips with anything, this league doesn’t have any duffers, these guys have been doing this for years and years. The commissioner, my brother John, was an old Strat player and, many times you could find him happily playing it down the basement when he was maybe 6 years old.
John disagrees, by the way, with my theory that this points system should humongously skew the draft towards qb’s. The deciding factors should be scarcity at individual spots and point increments between the leaders and those following.
He maintains that the overall points difference between Drew Brees, the top fantasy scorer last year, and the rest of the qb’s, doesn’t exceed that of the top running back, Peterson, from the rest of the running backs. And that may even be so, I won’t be listing the stats here, too boring, but what happens when you list the all the available players and sort by total fantasy points?
Of the first 15 players of all types last year, a running back doesn’t appear until number 9 on the list. And it isn’t Peterson, it’s DeAngelo Williams, the Carolina RB back that tore up the league last year. Of the next 6 spots, 4 more are qb’s before you get to 15, Adrian Peterson’s rank. The points differential between Drew Brees and Adrian Peterson was 361-233 or a whopping 128 points. Even spread out over 16 weeks, that’s a little more than a TD per week. The top back scored 272 points, still 89 less or about 5 points per week.
In a snake draft as in Squander, the number 1 picker’s next pick doesn’t occur until pick 24. So, taking a qb, I’d get 360 for Brees and then be faced with selections worth 210 points. That gives me 360 plus 210 or 570 points. Taking a running back first, I’d get 270 for the back and then probably the 10th or 11th best qb, currently Eli Manning, at 231 points. That’s basically 500 points overall. So I pick up 70 points overall by taking a QB first. I don’t think there’s any two ways about it.
And furthermore, I’d have Brees and either a top wide receiver or a middling running back versus having Peterson and Eli Manning. While I really like Eli, he can’t be a top fantasy qb playing for Coughlin and the Giants, a shame really, but there you have it. Imagine Brees and a top receiver, maybe even a Larry Fitzgerald or Randy Moss. Or, I’d have Brees and a middling running back, say a Ryan Grant or Ronnie Brown.
It doesn’t really matter, running back or wide receiver, as I also get pick 25 in a snake draft. So the real choice is how to combine the picks for maximum advantage. My next pick wouldn’t occur until pick 49 (and then 50), at which point the talent is significantly thinned. A quick look at the list shows players such as Roy Williams and Larry Johnson there, not too shabby.
But the significant thing is that statistical edge going into the third round if I take a qb first; it doesn’t even have to be Brees, it could be Philip Rivers or Adam Rodgers who both scored about 335 fantasy points on the season, still way ahead of the top-rated running back at 270.
There are flaws to this approach, of course, the biggest one being the fact that what happened last year will not necessarily happen this year. Statistically, it makes more sense to look at career performances among the qb’s, which of course would add to the luster of guys like Brady, who was hurt last year, and Peyton Manning, the only Manning in town, so to speak, when you’re talking fantasy.
Then there is aesthetics, the art of the game and my enjoyment of the season. There is also the fun of the draft itself to keep in mind. I’d get a kick out of surprising the numbers 2 through 5 pickers, and maybe even a psychological advantage. For example, I could take Brady and really discomfit Snake Eyes, picking at number 2.
There is embarrassment to consider too, but I don’t really care about that so much. Last year, for example, I took Tony Romo with the number 1, an unconventional choice that drew some jeers but I was never really sorry, this despite Romo’s missing of a few weeks and then returning at only about 70%. Romo is a lot of fun to watch and you never know what starlet he’ll be bringing to the stadium.
And, speaking of last year, though I lost every game Romo didn’t start (backup Delhomme was truly horrible), I made the playoffs and won at least once in the playoffs, even though I needed a savvy running back pickup to muddle through.
But running backs will be a secondary consideration. There are too many good ones, too many split backfields and the wildcat too. The quarterback stirs the drink in Squander.
Now, some of you are probably asking yourself why I’m focusing on quarterbacks. What about the consensus #1 pick, Adrian Peterson, the great Minnesota running back? There are some great runners out there, and aren’t you concerned about the shortage of running backs, the traditional approach of fantasy pundits for the last ten years or so?
Well, first you have to understand that, while most fantasy leagues award passing TD’s with just 4 points, which tends to equalize a quarterback’s value with running backs and receivers, Squander Football insists on awarding a TD with 6 points; a touchdown is a touchdown, right?
Well, I’m ok with that notion, what the hell, we can come to grips with anything, this league doesn’t have any duffers, these guys have been doing this for years and years. The commissioner, my brother John, was an old Strat player and, many times you could find him happily playing it down the basement when he was maybe 6 years old.
John disagrees, by the way, with my theory that this points system should humongously skew the draft towards qb’s. The deciding factors should be scarcity at individual spots and point increments between the leaders and those following.
He maintains that the overall points difference between Drew Brees, the top fantasy scorer last year, and the rest of the qb’s, doesn’t exceed that of the top running back, Peterson, from the rest of the running backs. And that may even be so, I won’t be listing the stats here, too boring, but what happens when you list the all the available players and sort by total fantasy points?
Of the first 15 players of all types last year, a running back doesn’t appear until number 9 on the list. And it isn’t Peterson, it’s DeAngelo Williams, the Carolina RB back that tore up the league last year. Of the next 6 spots, 4 more are qb’s before you get to 15, Adrian Peterson’s rank. The points differential between Drew Brees and Adrian Peterson was 361-233 or a whopping 128 points. Even spread out over 16 weeks, that’s a little more than a TD per week. The top back scored 272 points, still 89 less or about 5 points per week.
In a snake draft as in Squander, the number 1 picker’s next pick doesn’t occur until pick 24. So, taking a qb, I’d get 360 for Brees and then be faced with selections worth 210 points. That gives me 360 plus 210 or 570 points. Taking a running back first, I’d get 270 for the back and then probably the 10th or 11th best qb, currently Eli Manning, at 231 points. That’s basically 500 points overall. So I pick up 70 points overall by taking a QB first. I don’t think there’s any two ways about it.
And furthermore, I’d have Brees and either a top wide receiver or a middling running back versus having Peterson and Eli Manning. While I really like Eli, he can’t be a top fantasy qb playing for Coughlin and the Giants, a shame really, but there you have it. Imagine Brees and a top receiver, maybe even a Larry Fitzgerald or Randy Moss. Or, I’d have Brees and a middling running back, say a Ryan Grant or Ronnie Brown.
It doesn’t really matter, running back or wide receiver, as I also get pick 25 in a snake draft. So the real choice is how to combine the picks for maximum advantage. My next pick wouldn’t occur until pick 49 (and then 50), at which point the talent is significantly thinned. A quick look at the list shows players such as Roy Williams and Larry Johnson there, not too shabby.
But the significant thing is that statistical edge going into the third round if I take a qb first; it doesn’t even have to be Brees, it could be Philip Rivers or Adam Rodgers who both scored about 335 fantasy points on the season, still way ahead of the top-rated running back at 270.
There are flaws to this approach, of course, the biggest one being the fact that what happened last year will not necessarily happen this year. Statistically, it makes more sense to look at career performances among the qb’s, which of course would add to the luster of guys like Brady, who was hurt last year, and Peyton Manning, the only Manning in town, so to speak, when you’re talking fantasy.
Then there is aesthetics, the art of the game and my enjoyment of the season. There is also the fun of the draft itself to keep in mind. I’d get a kick out of surprising the numbers 2 through 5 pickers, and maybe even a psychological advantage. For example, I could take Brady and really discomfit Snake Eyes, picking at number 2.
There is embarrassment to consider too, but I don’t really care about that so much. Last year, for example, I took Tony Romo with the number 1, an unconventional choice that drew some jeers but I was never really sorry, this despite Romo’s missing of a few weeks and then returning at only about 70%. Romo is a lot of fun to watch and you never know what starlet he’ll be bringing to the stadium.
And, speaking of last year, though I lost every game Romo didn’t start (backup Delhomme was truly horrible), I made the playoffs and won at least once in the playoffs, even though I needed a savvy running back pickup to muddle through.
But running backs will be a secondary consideration. There are too many good ones, too many split backfields and the wildcat too. The quarterback stirs the drink in Squander.
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