Ten Four ...Joba... Over?

Although I’m a Mets fan through and through, and would love to wax poetic today about Jerry Manuel’s relief-pitcher shuffling, or Jose Reyes’s diving stop on that hard line drive today to end the game, or even Beltran’s newly regained power at the plate, let me today turn my thoughts to those other locals, those Yankees, who, after all, have been written off by even their most loyal followers. But there is still hope.

Playing 2-4 baseball at home in their last six, losing all kinds of different ways over that stretch, and facing ten games in four different and distant cities in the next ten days, one might think the Yankees were done. I'm sure we've all heard it these last few days, "Stick a fork in 'em, they're done". Well, I'm here to tell you, it ain't necessarily so.

The Yanks are now 72-64; the Red Sox are at 79-57. Over in Minnesota, the Twins are 77-60, just 1/2 game behind the White Sox in the Central. So the American League wildcard will be decided among these four teams. I'm conceding the AL East to the astounding Tampa Bay Rays, who nobody thought would do anything different this year, except my little brother, of course, who will remind me of this at the drop of a hat.

If the Yanks can take the Tigers tomorrow in a makeup game in Detroit, then fly to Tampa and take two of three, then fly to Seattle and sweep, and then fly to LA, drive over to Anaheim and take 2 of 3 from their old nemeses Angels, they'll be at 80-66 in ten days.

The Red Sox seemingly have an easier time over the same ten days, traveling to only one city over this same time period to face the Texas Rangers. Sandwiching that series will be six at Fenway - three against the lowly Orioles but then three versus those Tampa Bay rascals. Even if the Red Sox take both series against the Orioles and Rangers, if they lose 2 of 3 to the Rays, they’ll be 84-61 in ten days. The Yanks at 80-66 would then be just 4 ½ games out for the wildcard with 13 games still to play before playing the Red Sox at Fenway for the last three.

The Red Sox will then play 14, featuring Toronto for half those games. Toronto has the best starting pitching in the league, in both leagues maybe. The other seven are versus those pesky Rays again, and the Cleveland Indians, who have seemingly risen from the dead. If the Red Sox were to falter just a little, going just 6-8 over that stretch, they’ll be at 90-69.

The Yanks would have just 13 games versus the Rays, White Sox, Orioles and Blue Jays. If the Yanks can go 10-3 over that stretch, they’ll be at 90-69 too. And they’d still have to take 2 out of 3 at Boston to take the wildcard. But it’s certainly still do-able. The wildcard winner Yanks would then be 92-70.

I won't bore you with the details of the schedules for the Twins and White Sox over the same time period but, after only a cursory inspection, it looks pretty easy for them But my point is that this game is baseball, and just go ask the Colorado Rockies what can happen in this strangest of national pastimes. Or the Mets for that matter.

The Twins and White Sox are, after all, just, well, the Twins and White Sox. It’s entirely possible for them to falter too. In fact, for the Twins, who have been doing rather well as of late, it’s almost a sure thing. So, for the purposes of this exercise, I’m assuming the Twins will fold and the White Sox will take the Central. The Twins, now at 77-60, would just have to lose 11 of their remaining 25 to finish at 91-71.

That may be a little too complicated for most people not totally obsessed by numbers and the vagaries of baseball. Let me simplify it for those folks. Remember me saying the Twins are the Twins? Well, the Yanks are the Yanks. But they have not really been the Yanks for most of this year. And they soon will be.

You can see that Hideki Matsui has rejoined the team after his knee problems. And, while he hasn’t been hitting for average yet, he’s already been knocking in some runs and you can see his affect on the team.

And Joba Chamberlain will be coming back too. But not as a starter, where he did not seem as formidable over five to seven innings as he did for just one. I must say that seeing Joba almost every day for just one inning beats seeing him for six or seven innings every five days. Just think of it, five amazing Joba sightings every single week. WOOHOO!

Arod showed some life yesterday and Giambi continued his little hot streak too. With Matsui back, the boys are all in line, so to speak, with the whole team back except for Posada. And the pitching hasn’t been that bad. Incredible as it may have seemed, Pavano was great in his two appearances, Ponson could have been a lot worse and Rasner is credible too. Mussina has been great. Pettite hasn’t been but there’s no reason he can’t come back to form either.

If the Red Sox were not showing signs of weakness, it would be a lot more difficult to predict a close finish. But really, they’re getting very little from Big Papi and they let Manny go. How long can they really expect Pedroia to go 10 for 10? How long before Youkilis reverts to the late-season Youkilis of old?

Beckett’s a little banged up too. The Red Sox are really not the Red Sox who won the World Series. And the Yankees could soon be the team that made the playoffs those thirteen years in a row.

Manny Happy Returns

Well, Thursday's the trading deadline in MLB and it's at this time of year that General Managers earn their money, or not. If a team moves early, as the Yankees did last week in acquiring Xavier Nady and Damaso Marte, it gets the pick of the litter. The longer a team waits to make a move, though, the more sure it can be of what it's competition will look like after the deadline.

The Yankee moves addressed specific weaknesses, really, and make them a believable contending team. Even with their fairly good record and their recent run of wins, they were weak in the outfield and needed middle relief, and specifically a lefty, so that's what they got. I'd give them an edge to take their division now.

For the World Champion Red Sox, at least as this is written, have even bigger problems. Problemo Numero Uno starts with Manny, of course, the curiously injured Manny Ramirez, who is doing his darnedest to manipulate a trade from Boston, so he can clean up in free agency, and happily eschew Boston's first of two 20 million-dollar option years

They say in agent-land that Manny can do better, and word has it that he's looking for another four years at about 25 million per year. And, while he may not wind up getting that much, if he becomes available at all, he probably could get more than 20 million and more than just two more years.

So, from a purely business standpoint, I can't blame Manny for his latest shenanigans, except for a natural curiosity as to why he took the contract in the first place. Manny will be 38 two years from now, and it'll be a lot easier to negotiate his final contract now at a spritely 36.

Of course, the court of public opinion in Red Sox Nation seemed firmly anti-Manny as last night's game with the Yankees began, and Manny seemed to have orchestrated the whole affair, what with his comments on playing in Iraq. But by the end of the evening, after Manny's 3 for 5, two-double and two-rbi night, his hugs with Big Papi, and a huge win over the Yankees, public opinion seemed to have swung a bit in his favor.

It's ironic though that Manny'd be better off with public opinion against him. Unless Boston were willing to renegotiate his contract right now to his satisfaction, a highly unlikely scenario indeed, Manny'd be better off somewhere else. Surely, there'll be a team willing to accede to his demands. He has been and arguably is the best pure hitter in the league.

Unfortunately for Mr. Ramirez, Boston has the option, two successive options, in fact. And, unless they can secure some benefit from a trade, either now or later, they'd be foolish to just let him go.

What they have to weigh for themselves is just how much of a pain in the neck Manny can really be. I mean....he wasn't even trying before. But he can’t just tank the rest of the season, no potential suitor in its right mind could ignore that.

Boston hasn't gotten where it is by being stupid. Under the shrewd tutelage of young Theo Epstein, the Sox have shaped and re-shaped their team from their curse-breaking World Series win in 2004, and repeated that feat just last year.

And, as it’s another contract year for their popular All-Star catcher, Jason Varitek, I think Boston will trade Manny and keep Varitek, regardless of whatever outcry there may be in Beantown, assuming they can get some significant value in return. Of course, they have to make that decision before they exercise their first option.

It’s difficult to say who might want Manny. After all, he’s not a youngster anymore. But he has been very consistently great in that batter’s box. I’d think an American League team would be more interested, for the DH possibilities alone. After all, Manny has never been a Gold-Glove in the outfield, but he sure can play balls off that Fenway wall.

Manny could be a significant draw too. There’s nobody who can command more attention than Manny, at least not for any fun-loving sports fan. Look for an American League team from a major city outside the AL East to make a play before the deadline… Detroit, Chicago, some place like that.

Of course, the Red Sox would need to get an outfielder, or even two, in return, as their young Jacoby Ellsbury hasn’t been knockin’ em dead this year. And the suitor would no doubt have to get some indication from Manny as to whether a long-term contract was in the cards at all. Otherwise, why give up anything valuable?

So the Red Sox could look significantly different by Friday. Will the Yankees take the chance that their chief rivals won’t look quite different by then? I don’t think so. Look for the Yankees to pick up still another pitcher for their pennant run. After all, if it isn’t Boston, it’ll be the Angels who’ll be in their way. And the Mets or Cubs in the National League.

The best player who may be available is the Rockies Matt Holliday. The Rockies won’t be able to afford him next year. But I don’t think the Rockies would drop dead for Manny Ramirez. I think the Rockies will be looking for some nice young pitchers.

The Mets of course need an outfielder. And New York would be a great place for Ramirez. I had even heard on the radio a proposal of offering Beltran for Ramirez and Ellsbury. Although I wouldn’t like to see it myself, who knows? Stranger things have happened. But can you just see Manny playing left field at Shea when he’s 40? I can’t.

Seattle presents an interesting possibility for Boston. They could really use an ace like Jarod Washburn. And, if Seattle had once warmed up to Alex Rodriguez, they could certainly get very used to Manny Ramirez. We’ll soon find out.

Big Doings at Wrigley

Oh, to be at Wrigley Field today as THE premiere interleague confrontation kicks off today, the AL Central leading White Sox (does anybody call them Pale Hose anymore) vs. the NL Central leading Cubbies, sweet Lou Piniella vs. crazy Ozzie Guillen, Derrek Lee vs. Jim Thome, and both sides sporting new stars too, left fielder Carlos Quentin for the Sox and at least two for the Cubs in Japanese import Kosuke Fukudome in right field and Geovany Soto behind the plate.

Anyone who's ever been to Chicago on a Friday afternoon and had the opportunity to sit in the Wrigley bleachers, tall one in hand and looking across at the brickwork and down to the vines, can appreciate the enormity of this occasion, with both teams in first place and Chicago bragging rights on the line.

And both teams seem loaded with talent this year, the Cubs with old reliables Derrek Lee at first base and Aramis Ramirez at third, newcomers Soto and Fukudome and some good players at every position, Ryan Theriot at shortstop and Mark DeRosa at second. Reed Johnson will cover for Alfonso Soriano, who broke his finger and Jim Edmonds, newly imported from the Padres manning centerfield.

The White Sox have less balance, I think, but do have their stars in Jermaine Dye in right, Quentin in left and Joe Crede at third base. And while the Cubs will be handicapped without Soriano, the White Sox will be similarly hampered by the absence of Paulie Konerko at first base. Old pros Orlando Cabrera and Juan Uribe man the middle-infield, although Uribe has had trouble unseating newcomer Alexei Ramirez at second base. Powerful Jim Thome is the designated hitter and Nick Swisher is at first base.

Pitching is strong on both sides, both at the starting positions and in relief. For the Cubbies, Carlos Zambrano is followed in the starting rotation by Ted Lilly, Ryan Dempster, Jason Marquis and impressive rookie Sean Gallagher. The White Sox are at least as impressive with Mark Buehrle their ace followed by Jacinto Vasquez, John Danks, Jose Contreras and Gavin Floyd.

The Cubs have the edge in relief as well with Kerry Wood closing and Carlos Marmol getting him the ball. Marmol had been especially reliable until just last night, when he walked two and hit two batters, got taken out of the game only to watch Scott Eyre give up a grand slam home run. The Sox counter with the big guy, Bobby Jenks as the closer and either Octovio Dotel or Scott Linebrink getting them to Wood.

Here’s how I see the matchup: CAPS indicate a significant edge – small letters slight

Left field – Cubs Reed Johnson vs Sox Carlos Quentin – Advantage Quentin – SOX

Centerfield – Cubs Jim Emonds vs Sox Brian Anderson – Advantage Edmonds-Cubs

Right field – Cubs Fukudome vs Sox Jermaine Dye - EVEN

3^rd base – Cubs Ramirez vs Sox Crede - Advantage Ramirez –Cubs

Shortstop – Cubs Theriot vs Sox Cabrera EVEN

2^nd base – Cubs DeRosa vs Sox Uribe EVEN

1^st base – Cubs Lee vs Sox Swisher Advantage Lee – Cubs

Catcher – Cubs Soto vs Sox Pierzynski - Advantage Soto – Cubs

DH – Cubs (no DH) vs Sox Jim Thome Advantage Thome – SOX

Starting Pitching:

Cubs Zambrano – Sox Buehrle Advantage CUBS

Cubs Lilly – Sox Vasquez Advantage SOX

Cubs Dempster – Sox Danks EVEN

Cubs Marquis – Sox Contreras Advantage SOX

Cubs Gallagher – Sox Gavin Floyd Advantage Sox

Closer:

Cubs Wood – Sox Jenks EVEN

Setup:

Cubs Marmol – Sox Dotel Advantage CUBS

Managers:

Cubs Piniella vs Sox Guillen EVEN

So the Cubs have the better lineup but the Sox have some very good starting pitching. Giving the Cubs a slight advantage for Wrigley Field, I’d say the Cubs should win this Series but probably not in a sweep. Unless, of course, you subscribe to the theory that pitching and defense wins big games.

Next Friday, Saturday and Sunday, these two teams go at it once again, but at U.S. Cellular Field on the South Side. The Cubs will have more trouble in that matchup but could emerge the victor there as well. Who knows?

That’s why they play the game. It’s getting started – gotta go get a tall one.