Oh baby! Baseball’s really revving up now as baseball articles intrude on the Olympics and basketball coverage inundating the sports pages. But, this happens just as I was starting to get into Bode Miller and Lindsay Vonn, and, if I must say so, Julia Mancuso. And the ice dancing, something I ordinarily wouldn’t watch, drew me in last night as the coverage led off with a piece on White and Davis, one of the two American entries skating in the top 5.
What struck me were the sacrifices these two had put in for so many years of their lives. It makes you realize that these Olympians are athletes, highly trained athletes in every sense of the word. And then to see them put up some ridiculously high number to vie for gold was very gratifying. Their attitudes were great too, happy that they did their jobs pretty splendidly and only hoping for the best. They wound up with silver, of course, and I had to grudgingly admit that that Canadian couple looked pretty damned good too. (How’s that for analysis)?
It made me wonder too. Do baseball players try that hard to achieve excellence? More particularly, do Mets players try that hard? More particularly even than that, does Oliver Perez even toss the ball around in the off-season?
I pick on Perez as I had just finished reading that Sandy Koufax was impressed with him and that Jerry Manuel was impressed that he could duplicate the same delivery twice in a row. I can understand Koufax being impressed with his arm. Koufax was notoriously wild early in his career. His success came relatively late. I can recall watching some of his early games, wondering what all the fuss was about him. He couldn’t come near the plate some games.
Let’s hope Ollie’s career takes a similar path. That’d be nice. It’s encouraging too that Manuel had some good things to say about him. At this point, I don’t think Manuel would go out of his way to say good things about someone who has arguably been the Mets greatest failure.
But really, how hard is that guy capable of working? And how long will he be able to keep it up? I guess 2010 will tell us. We’ll see if he can become the #2 starter the Mets have needed. Not that a good or even great performance from Perez would have made any difference last year.
But, all in all, there have been a lot of good indicators coming out of Mets camp. You hear that Pelfrey dropped 25 pounds, not that that’s necessarily a good thing. I can recall Sid Fernandez, one of my all-time favorite Mets pitchers, dropping weight and being dreadful. But Pelfrey’s dropping some pounds is a good sign of effort.
Carlos Beltran, too, seems over his funk, or at least that has become his story. I personally don’t think Beltran is the type of person to worry too much about anything. And while he was obviously perturbed with the Mets and their medical staff, it sounds as if it was for good reason. He knows it, the Mets probably know it, and the whole incident just smells of bad public relations and bad communications within the Mets hierarchy. Again.
Ah well, let’s face it. Everything can’t be rosy. Sometimes it’s tough to be a Mets fan. For example, I had been looking forward to watching Omir Santos break out and have a good year. Next thing I know, he’s out and Rod Barajas is in. Why? I have no idea. And Santos won’t even be the second catcher. That job will go to another guy, Thole, nobody’s ever heard of. Why? I have no idea. Maybe it’s excessive perspiration or he needs a breath mint once in a while. He sure seemed to hit in the clutch. How bad can his pitch selection be?
And speaking of pitch selection, there’s the story out of Yankee camp that Burnett and Posada have worked out their differences, or, alternately, that there was never a problem to begin with. That Girardi gave Burnett Molina to catch all his games was just some kind of miraculous coincidence. Posada isn’t as stupid as he looks….or something.
Ah geez, there’s that Yankee hate coming out of me again. I just can’t help myself sometimes, like Newman (from Seinfeld) railing against the postal system. At least he had Kramer to rein him in and bring him back to reality. I have to rely only on Yankee beat writers and the few pearls of what is supposed to be wisdom from Brian Cashman.
Okay, he finally got them a World Series. After outspending the entire free world for baseball players for around ten years or so, he finally got one. Let’s anoint him baseball’s version of Bill Walsh. Oops, there I go again.
But really, the difference between the Mets and Yanks is astounding when it comes to PR. The Mets say nothing, the Yanks spin stories. For example, Joba is officially off his pitch count, but, oh by the way, he may be going to the pen.
I’m still amazed the Yanks let Johnny Damon go. He was the perfect Yankee in that nobody was ever more full of baloney. He’s thrilled to be a Tiger, he always wanted to play for Detroit, he’s happy with his one-year contract for 8 mill. Heeeere’s Johnny….
Let’s see now, is there a point to these ramblings? I’ll tie it all up with this….if the Mets put as much effort into communications as they expect their players to put into baseball, things would be better. And if the Yankees put as much effort into baseball as they put into baloney, they’d probably have some more Series rings to their credit.
Oh, and they really should have made more of an effort for Damon/Matsui. I can’t wait for crunchtime in Yankee games when it’s all on the line for, um, Granderson? Nick Johnson? Heh-heh.
Tuesday, February 23, 2010
Saturday, February 20, 2010
Jose Reyes Batting Third?
Jose Reyes batting third?
My first thought is that it takes his legs away, his biggest asset. So no matter what else may be good about it, it’s a bad idea. Sure, he might be able to hit .300 in a good year. And yes, he could probably hit for power a bit. And he had no problem driving in runs from the leadoff spot when he had the chance. And it’s true that he doesn’t walk very much so his on-base average suffers. And even Jose Reyes can’t score if he doesn’t get on base.
What that means to me is that he’s only a good leadoff hitter, not a great one. He only played sparingly before 2005 and after 2008. From 2005 to 2008 though, he scored 99, 122, 119 and 113 runs. . So how mediocre is that? Not very. Could he have scored more if he walked more often? Absolutely. But he averaged mid-sixties in the RBI’s department for those years from the leadoff spot. How might that number be reduced if he were not such a free swinger?
Reyes also stole a lot of bases in those years, averaging about 65 per year. Although runs scored is the most obvious stat affected by stolen bases, the stolen base also has residual effects not necessarily so obvious in the box score, all of which have to do with the underlying asset that makes the stolen base possible. That is speed.
Speed drives the opposing pitcher crazy, putting added pressure on him to keep the runner close. It also makes him throw more fastballs, making it easier for the next batter to hit. I can’t quantify it as those stats aren’t even kept (it would be impossible to determine it, what would the next batter have hit without Reyes on base in front of him) but his speed adds to the number of runs produced and scored by those following him in the order, not just the next batter but every batter who steps to the plate while Reyes is on base before him.
So Reyes is one hell of a leadoff hitter because he has speed, not just as determined by his on base percentage. Batting third, many times there will be somebody on base in front of him. Reyes will still have his legs, of course, but it won’t matter…he won’t be able to use them.
In exchange for the loss of all this chaos on the bases and turbulence in the pitcher’s psyche, we get a number 3 guy whose batting averages over those same 2005-2008 seasons were .273, .300, .280 and .297, marginal at best for a number 3 guy. So we’re trading a good to great leadoff hitter for a poor number 3 hitter.
None of the above takes into account the enjoyment that Reyes’s type of game has on the fans. Games will only be almost as enjoyable. Instead of leading off the game with a ball of fire, we lead off with…..whom? Luis Castillo? Angel Pagan? Somebody please get me a bag; I’m going to be sick.
This faulty thinking is really the first time I can recall thinking that Jerry Manuel over-manages. Even when he was changing relief pitchers every third of an inning, I figured he had good reason. He had all these situational pitchers and nobody who could get guys out from either side. Even when he put such an emphasis on hitting to the opposite field last year, a move that may have screwed up some successful swings (see David Wright), I figured his approach really couldn’t cause much harm. (I think it actually was helping Beltran before he went down with his injury).
But this move is just not well thought out, which really isn’t like Manuel at all. My hope is that it’s just a ploy…the old “if you don’t walk more, I’m going to bat you third” ploy. Whether this will have any influence on the oblivious Reyes at all is highly questionable. I think Jose is really untouchable as far as being influenced too much by anything, much to the dismay of Mets fans sometimes.
What the possibility of this move does do though is dampen my enthusiasm for both the season in general and the Mets in particular. I used to be a Minaya-Manuel guy. I’m not so sure of that anymore.
My first thought is that it takes his legs away, his biggest asset. So no matter what else may be good about it, it’s a bad idea. Sure, he might be able to hit .300 in a good year. And yes, he could probably hit for power a bit. And he had no problem driving in runs from the leadoff spot when he had the chance. And it’s true that he doesn’t walk very much so his on-base average suffers. And even Jose Reyes can’t score if he doesn’t get on base.
What that means to me is that he’s only a good leadoff hitter, not a great one. He only played sparingly before 2005 and after 2008. From 2005 to 2008 though, he scored 99, 122, 119 and 113 runs. . So how mediocre is that? Not very. Could he have scored more if he walked more often? Absolutely. But he averaged mid-sixties in the RBI’s department for those years from the leadoff spot. How might that number be reduced if he were not such a free swinger?
Reyes also stole a lot of bases in those years, averaging about 65 per year. Although runs scored is the most obvious stat affected by stolen bases, the stolen base also has residual effects not necessarily so obvious in the box score, all of which have to do with the underlying asset that makes the stolen base possible. That is speed.
Speed drives the opposing pitcher crazy, putting added pressure on him to keep the runner close. It also makes him throw more fastballs, making it easier for the next batter to hit. I can’t quantify it as those stats aren’t even kept (it would be impossible to determine it, what would the next batter have hit without Reyes on base in front of him) but his speed adds to the number of runs produced and scored by those following him in the order, not just the next batter but every batter who steps to the plate while Reyes is on base before him.
So Reyes is one hell of a leadoff hitter because he has speed, not just as determined by his on base percentage. Batting third, many times there will be somebody on base in front of him. Reyes will still have his legs, of course, but it won’t matter…he won’t be able to use them.
In exchange for the loss of all this chaos on the bases and turbulence in the pitcher’s psyche, we get a number 3 guy whose batting averages over those same 2005-2008 seasons were .273, .300, .280 and .297, marginal at best for a number 3 guy. So we’re trading a good to great leadoff hitter for a poor number 3 hitter.
None of the above takes into account the enjoyment that Reyes’s type of game has on the fans. Games will only be almost as enjoyable. Instead of leading off the game with a ball of fire, we lead off with…..whom? Luis Castillo? Angel Pagan? Somebody please get me a bag; I’m going to be sick.
This faulty thinking is really the first time I can recall thinking that Jerry Manuel over-manages. Even when he was changing relief pitchers every third of an inning, I figured he had good reason. He had all these situational pitchers and nobody who could get guys out from either side. Even when he put such an emphasis on hitting to the opposite field last year, a move that may have screwed up some successful swings (see David Wright), I figured his approach really couldn’t cause much harm. (I think it actually was helping Beltran before he went down with his injury).
But this move is just not well thought out, which really isn’t like Manuel at all. My hope is that it’s just a ploy…the old “if you don’t walk more, I’m going to bat you third” ploy. Whether this will have any influence on the oblivious Reyes at all is highly questionable. I think Jose is really untouchable as far as being influenced too much by anything, much to the dismay of Mets fans sometimes.
What the possibility of this move does do though is dampen my enthusiasm for both the season in general and the Mets in particular. I used to be a Minaya-Manuel guy. I’m not so sure of that anymore.
Wednesday, February 17, 2010
Three Words for Mets Panners
In mid-winter every four years, a young man’s mind must surely turn to the thrill of watching the sport of curling….a cold and slick variation, it would seem, of horseshoes or maybe bocce, except for two crazed assistant sliders who accompany this foot-long disk down the ice, somehow magically determining whether the disk will attain its target. Gimme a friggin’ break….and pardon my Latvian.
Latvia, of course, was in the Olympic news as they faced off against their captor Russians in ice-hockey. That thriller could be witnessed on MSNBC also while the regular NBC affiliate carried the ever more popular men’s (using the term very loosely) ice skating. Woo_Hoo!!
And all that nonsense is still more interesting than college basketball and the NBA, where too many teams are chasing too little talent in a star system with not enough stars to go around. And the Knicks might even get Tracy McGrady…about 6 or 7 years late…all in what I’m almost sure will be a thwarted attempt at picking up one of the five or so superstars in the game.
Thank God for baseball. Thank God for the Mets. Thank God for the National League. And damnation to all the rest…the hated Yankees, all Steinbrenner’s money, all Cashman’s Verducci pitch-count crap, the designated hitter rule and finally, all those alleged Mets fans and prognosticators just lambasting Mets management for just about every move they make…or don’t make, as the case may be.
My USA-Today Sports Weekly now informs me in their early-season power rankings that the Mets are the 22nd best team in baseball. I hear on the radio that they’ll finish no better than 4th in their division. What baloney!
How does a team that was a title-contender in 2008, a team that lacked only relief pitching, drop so far in every man’s opinion? Here was a team that picked up that needed relief pitching in 2009 but here also was a team that was then unlucky enough to lose its three biggest stars to injury.
At the same time this Mets team experienced every possible malady known to mankind. They lost one of those relief pitchers very early too. They lost just about every player for significant portions of the season, including their #1 starter, Johan Santana.
And, in order to just get through that stinking 2009, the Mets did some good things. They picked up Jeff Francoeur from the Braves to play right field. Along the way and into 2010, the Mets got arguably the best left-fielder in baseball in Jason Bay. They also picked up two very decent pitchers out of Japan and one Kelvim Escobar who could turn out to be as good as a number two starter, or at the very least, a nice long reliever.
Okay, so they didn’t pick up a second baseman to replace the guy who hit friggin’ .300 and did his job in every conceivable fashion. And they didn’t renew Carlos Delgado, one of those stars who went down in 2009. The one glaring error, but only in retrospect, was the re-signing of Oliver Perez for big big dollars. Failure, thy name was Ollie.
Most of these alleged Mets fans will also point to the failures of Daniel Murphy at first base and do not relish seeing him man the position for 2010 as well. Not me. I think Murphy will improve a great deal over his 2009 season. Most young players do. And he’s got Keith Hernandez in his corner, a hot corner, teaching him the finer points of defense….and I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s talking some hitting as well. Keith has never been bashful.
So let’s re-hash and simplify. All those Mets-panners say we’ll get nothing out of either Japanese pitcher, nothing out of Kelvim Escobar, nothing out of Jeff Francoeur, oh, and lest I forget, nothing out of Mike Jacobs, who they acquired for power at first in the event that Murphy continues to do nothing.
Well gee whiz, guys, I think that’s God-awful pessimistic thinking, even for Mets fans. The only real missing piece from 2008 will be Carlos Delgado. Instead of replacing his power at first base, the Mets have added power in left field. And I’m sure every fantasy baseball player in the land would take Jason Bay over Carlos Delgado, any day of the week.
Oh, and Carlos Beltran will probably return in June. He’ll miss April and May for maybe 35 games. That leaves only about 125 in which he’ll play. Chances are he’ll be the old Carlos Beltran, the 5-tool guy who does everything. April and May will belong to Angel Pagan and Gary Matthews Jr., either of whom I’d take over a lot of centerfielders in the game.
So here’s the lineup in June….
1. Ss Jose Reyes – switch - .286 – 100 runs, 50 sb’s
2. 2b Luis Castillo – switch - .292 – 70 runs
3. 3b David Wright – right - .309 – 100 runs, 100 rbi’s
4. Cf Carlos Beltran – switch - .283 – 100 runs, 100 rbi’s
5. Lf Jason Bay – right - .280 – 100 rbi’s
6. 1b Daniel Murphy – left - .275 – 70 rbi’s
7. Rf Jeff Francoeur – right - .271 – 90 rbi’s
8. C Omir Santos – right - .260 – 75 rbi’s
9. P Pitcher
Before Beltran’s return in June, there will be a deficit in left-handed power as Wright, Bay and Francoeur all bat from the right side, which is somewhat problematical unless Pagan bats in the middle of the lineup and really doesn’t hit for power. (Detractors will assert that Francoeur and Wright don’t either).
Catching has also been cast as a problem but I don’t think so. Anyone watching Omir Santos knows that he hit .260, and chipped in 40 rbi’s in only 280 at-bats. I suspect two things…one, that he’ll be even more productive with more at-bats and two, he’ll continue to improve as 2009 was really his first year in the majors. Santos could probably deliver over 80 ribbies in 2010.
Let’s go Mets!
Latvia, of course, was in the Olympic news as they faced off against their captor Russians in ice-hockey. That thriller could be witnessed on MSNBC also while the regular NBC affiliate carried the ever more popular men’s (using the term very loosely) ice skating. Woo_Hoo!!
And all that nonsense is still more interesting than college basketball and the NBA, where too many teams are chasing too little talent in a star system with not enough stars to go around. And the Knicks might even get Tracy McGrady…about 6 or 7 years late…all in what I’m almost sure will be a thwarted attempt at picking up one of the five or so superstars in the game.
Thank God for baseball. Thank God for the Mets. Thank God for the National League. And damnation to all the rest…the hated Yankees, all Steinbrenner’s money, all Cashman’s Verducci pitch-count crap, the designated hitter rule and finally, all those alleged Mets fans and prognosticators just lambasting Mets management for just about every move they make…or don’t make, as the case may be.
My USA-Today Sports Weekly now informs me in their early-season power rankings that the Mets are the 22nd best team in baseball. I hear on the radio that they’ll finish no better than 4th in their division. What baloney!
How does a team that was a title-contender in 2008, a team that lacked only relief pitching, drop so far in every man’s opinion? Here was a team that picked up that needed relief pitching in 2009 but here also was a team that was then unlucky enough to lose its three biggest stars to injury.
At the same time this Mets team experienced every possible malady known to mankind. They lost one of those relief pitchers very early too. They lost just about every player for significant portions of the season, including their #1 starter, Johan Santana.
And, in order to just get through that stinking 2009, the Mets did some good things. They picked up Jeff Francoeur from the Braves to play right field. Along the way and into 2010, the Mets got arguably the best left-fielder in baseball in Jason Bay. They also picked up two very decent pitchers out of Japan and one Kelvim Escobar who could turn out to be as good as a number two starter, or at the very least, a nice long reliever.
Okay, so they didn’t pick up a second baseman to replace the guy who hit friggin’ .300 and did his job in every conceivable fashion. And they didn’t renew Carlos Delgado, one of those stars who went down in 2009. The one glaring error, but only in retrospect, was the re-signing of Oliver Perez for big big dollars. Failure, thy name was Ollie.
Most of these alleged Mets fans will also point to the failures of Daniel Murphy at first base and do not relish seeing him man the position for 2010 as well. Not me. I think Murphy will improve a great deal over his 2009 season. Most young players do. And he’s got Keith Hernandez in his corner, a hot corner, teaching him the finer points of defense….and I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s talking some hitting as well. Keith has never been bashful.
So let’s re-hash and simplify. All those Mets-panners say we’ll get nothing out of either Japanese pitcher, nothing out of Kelvim Escobar, nothing out of Jeff Francoeur, oh, and lest I forget, nothing out of Mike Jacobs, who they acquired for power at first in the event that Murphy continues to do nothing.
Well gee whiz, guys, I think that’s God-awful pessimistic thinking, even for Mets fans. The only real missing piece from 2008 will be Carlos Delgado. Instead of replacing his power at first base, the Mets have added power in left field. And I’m sure every fantasy baseball player in the land would take Jason Bay over Carlos Delgado, any day of the week.
Oh, and Carlos Beltran will probably return in June. He’ll miss April and May for maybe 35 games. That leaves only about 125 in which he’ll play. Chances are he’ll be the old Carlos Beltran, the 5-tool guy who does everything. April and May will belong to Angel Pagan and Gary Matthews Jr., either of whom I’d take over a lot of centerfielders in the game.
So here’s the lineup in June….
1. Ss Jose Reyes – switch - .286 – 100 runs, 50 sb’s
2. 2b Luis Castillo – switch - .292 – 70 runs
3. 3b David Wright – right - .309 – 100 runs, 100 rbi’s
4. Cf Carlos Beltran – switch - .283 – 100 runs, 100 rbi’s
5. Lf Jason Bay – right - .280 – 100 rbi’s
6. 1b Daniel Murphy – left - .275 – 70 rbi’s
7. Rf Jeff Francoeur – right - .271 – 90 rbi’s
8. C Omir Santos – right - .260 – 75 rbi’s
9. P Pitcher
Before Beltran’s return in June, there will be a deficit in left-handed power as Wright, Bay and Francoeur all bat from the right side, which is somewhat problematical unless Pagan bats in the middle of the lineup and really doesn’t hit for power. (Detractors will assert that Francoeur and Wright don’t either).
Catching has also been cast as a problem but I don’t think so. Anyone watching Omir Santos knows that he hit .260, and chipped in 40 rbi’s in only 280 at-bats. I suspect two things…one, that he’ll be even more productive with more at-bats and two, he’ll continue to improve as 2009 was really his first year in the majors. Santos could probably deliver over 80 ribbies in 2010.
Let’s go Mets!
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