Three Yards and a Cloud of Dust

Week 17 was another one of those monkey weeks for me as I finished 8-7 for the week to finish the regular season with a not quite heroic 101-86-4 record for the year. I won’t even look at what percentage of wins that is but it’s a hell of a lot better than .500. And hey! We are using point spreads here. None of that ESPN-ish winners picks on this site. We’re all grown up now.

Anyway, as for last week, there is an excuse or two to offer. I would have sworn the Bengals would have tried a little harder last week. And that goes for Indianapolis too. I was really disappointed in both teams really, Indianapolis because it was bad enough they had already thrown the towel in on an undefeated season and the Bengals because they had been one of my feel-good teams this year along with the Niners. I expected more from them.

Then the Eagles threw in a real dud against the Cowboys. I still can’t figure out whether the NFC East title meant anything at all to them. But did they really figure the Giants had any chance whatever against the Vikings? I don’t think so. So they had no real shot at the 2 seed and, as far as I know, the NFL isn’t handing out championship belts to just any old division winner. So the Eagles had nothing to gain and everything to lose by throwing all their cards on the table. As Romo had a lot of time to throw, I have to think they were just dogging it. Even Romo was surprised.

But that doesn’t mean I think they’ll beat Dallas. I think they’ll lose by around six. Sometimes you can do all your shrewd little ruses and outsmart yourself. I think that’s what will happen to the Eagles. They’ll come out with fire but they’ll be in the Cowboys gigantic home, and there’ll be cheerleaders and that low scoreboard and Jerry Jones….the first bad thing that happens to the Eagles will just incite that crowd and before you know it, things will start turning bad.

The Eagles are pretty young too. It’s usually experience that pulls teams through these postseason wars and the Eagles just don’t have that much of it. So they’ll bring the heat and maybe get burned and then there’ll be Marion Barber bein’ pesky and Demarcus Ware making things tough on Donovan and maybe some of these young Eagles guns will get the dropsies or fumble or just not be as good as they usually are.

The Cowboys have had enough bad things happen to them. They’ll play a conservative game for them but they’ll frustrate that Philly offense and hang around till the pressure gets to those Birds, whose offense just isn’t that versatile. I figure there’ll be a turnover or two at just the wrong time and the Boyz will prevail.
The over-under’s at 45 and the Eagles get 3 ½ but it won’t be enough. I think it’ll be 26-20, Cowboys.

But the game most New Yorkers (and Jerseyans) care about is the Jets game. It’s difficult to say what will happen under these peculiar circumstances, playing the same team again, one that you beat handily but they didn’t give it their best. They didn’t start their Cedric Benson. They gave 3 of their defensive injured another week off.

Interestingly enough, these 3 injured defensemen ain’t just chopped liver. I know. The Bengals were my fantasy defense. They lost Geathers first as I recall, then the other two shortly thereafter. Robert Geathers is their best defensive lineman. When they lost the defensive tackle as well, Domata Peko, the whole left side of their defense was decimated. (They play a 4-3). Peka is 6-3 and 325 and is key to the Bengals run defense. The other injured Bengal was Chris Crocker, their free safety, and we all saw what happened to the Giants when they lost their safety. All three are returning. They’ll be full-strength for the first time in weeks. They’ll be psyched in Cincinnati. Count on it.

So count on the Jets not having quite as much success on the ground. They’ll get some yards but it won’t even approach what they had last week. There could be a lot of three and outs. And then Sanchez will throw. He’ll throw some safe stuff and he’ll be careful with the ball. And sooner or later he’ll find Braylon Edwards, who might even make a catch.

Speaking of versatile offenses, the Jets don’t have one. They’ve been running their way to mini-celebrity in the City and that’ll continue but they just won’t be very good at it tomorrow. Cotchery, Dustin Keller, Braylon Edwards, they just aren’t that formidable.

Speaking of formidable, though, that would be their defense. They won’t go away. And Cedric Benson may be their #1 running back but I just don’t think he’ll make that much of a difference. They’ll fare better than last week, probably running at the middle of the Jets defense, hoping to take advantage of good ol’ Sione Pouha. (I love that name).

So what we’ll see tomorrow is the same kind of offense from both sides. It’ll be one of those battles for field position, 3 yards and a cloud of dust….stuff like that.

The over-under is 34. The Jets are getting 2 ½. I figure that’ll be just about right. The Jets will cover but they may not win. That’s the bad news. Carson Palmer being who he is and Mark Sanchez being who he is, you have to like the Bengals chances late in the game.

The most likely scenario is another Falcons affair, a late Bengals touchdown to put them ahead by one. The good news, besides covering the spread, is that they’ll look pretty good and won’t totally embarrass themselves. Hell, they might even win.
But I don’t expect it.

Other games:
Pats 27-24 over Baltimore. Ravens cover

Packers 30-27 over Cards in a pickem game.