Playoffs week 1 went as well as could be expected. The Jets won and I went 3 and 1 on my picks against the spread. What could be better? Not even if Carlos Beltran were to come back in April from his latest surprise surgery and just start acting as a member of the team again, not even that would make me happier than that the Jets actually won a playoff game.
Can the Jets beat San Diego? Of course they can. Anything can happen in the NFL. If Rivers goes down, if LaDainian goes down, if Gates and Jackson and Sproles all turn in clunkers, the Jets can win again. But I don’t expect it. They’ll cover the spread though, which is currently at 7 ½ but had been even higher. But I’m getting ahead of myself. Taking things in order:
Sat 4:30 – New Orleans Superdome
SAINTS -7 Cardinals
I’m still mad. That the Cardinals beat the Packers at all is still killing me. The Packers played a stupid defense and stayed in it. It had to be heartbreaking for the Pack. I say it’s time to sweep out the old and bring in the new blood. Kurt Warner had his day. Saturday won’t be another for him.
When the Saints come marching in, they’ll be doing so at full strength. The Saints are back. Their defense will be intact for the first time in a long time. Jeremy Shockey will be back too. Shockey of the big mouth, big biceps, big tattoos and more important, big blocking ability and big receiving threat, will be on the field. Shockey makes a difference on that offensive line.
Drew Brees will finally get the time he needs to look downfield, the running game should get a boost, and the Cardinals will have every reason to quit, something they’ve shown themselves only too willing to do at times in the past.
A 7-point spread is big though and the over/under of 57 is huge. If the whistles stay quiet, this could be quite a different game. I look for the Saints to play a keep-away game, something they should be able to re-establish on Saturday. Look for the Saints to establish Pierre Thomas in the running game, something they haven’t been able to do since Week 13.
Since Week 13, the Saints haven’t run the ball. Their points scored suffered dramatically as a result. An offense that had been scoring in the 30’s and 40’s scored 17, 17 and 10 points respectively in Weeks 15 through 17. They managed to win against Atlanta in Week 14 with Shockey in the lineup. The Saints are undefeated with Shockey and 0-3 without him.
The Dome will be rockin’……Saints 30-17.
Sat 8:15 – Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis
COLTS -6 ½ Ravens
The Colts are tough and they may win this one but it won’t be a romp for sure. The Colts took their first contest by a score of 17-15. They’re rested but have absolutely no momentum going into this game. But guess what? The Colts have an offensive line second to none. They’ll protect Manning, who, by the way, has never lost to the Ravens.
But the Ravens are playing better than ever. Both Ray Rice and Willis McGahee are pounding that rock and everybody’s playing inspired behind gimpy-hipped Joe Flacco. They have all the momentum in the world going into this one.
But Flacco made the big mistake in their first contest. He was intercepted in the final minutes after having negotiated a long drive to the Colts 12-yard line.
This will be a war……..Ravens 24-22
Sunday 1PM – Mall of America Field, Minneapolis
VIKINGS -2 ½ Cowboys
Out with the old, in with the new. Favre will find he’s got Boyz in his face. There’ll be none of the pump-fake nonsense he’s perpetrated against a lot of teams. Before pounding the hapless Giants, who could never defend anything, the Vikes had lost to the Panthers and Bears. The Panthers held the Vikes to 7 total points while the Bears simply outscored them 36-30.
Wade Phillips knows defense. Tony Romo knows offense. It’s Romo’s time. Favre has had his moments and Sunday looks to not be one of them. Look for the Boyz to stop Adrian Peterson, take an early lead, and then take a few INT’s from a desperate Favre down the stretch.
Look for the Vikes to put 20 on the board. Look for the Boyz to get a few more.
Cowboys 27-20
Sunday, 4:40 PM – Qualcomm Stadium, San Diego
CHARGERS -7 ½ Jets
While I’d love to say “out with the old, in with the new” once again, we have Phillip Rivers, who isn’t that old, going against Mark Sanchez, who’s a little too young. As well as the Jets have been playing, the Chargers have been doing it better and longer. The Chargers have just the type of versatile offense to give the Jets fits.
The Bengals didn’t have enough weapons. Carson Palmer had no time and Ochocinco was blanketed by Revis. Their second wide-out was Laverneus Coles. There were no other targets to speak of and the Bengals missed two field goals. The Jets running backs ran wild and a great offensive game plan worked to perfection but under no real duress.
I’m expecting a great deal of duress Sunday afternoon. Although the Chargers haven’t been able to get their running game going, their passing offense hasn’t been stopped. The Chargers are for real with Vincent Jackson on one side and Malcolm Floyd on the other. Then there is Antonio Gates. They’re all tall and can catch the ball, unlike one Braylon Edwards, who’ll drop anything he has to think about.
All that being said, the Chargers will be facing a fired-up young squad that won’t quit. The Jets will undoubtedly have some success on the ground, but unless they can take and hold the lead against one of the NFL’s finest offenses, they’ll have to throw. It won’t work.
Chargers 24-20, Jets cover
Showing posts with label Picks. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Picks. Show all posts
Thursday, January 14, 2010
Friday, January 8, 2010
Three Yards and a Cloud of Dust
Week 17 was another one of those monkey weeks for me as I finished 8-7 for the week to finish the regular season with a not quite heroic 101-86-4 record for the year. I won’t even look at what percentage of wins that is but it’s a hell of a lot better than .500. And hey! We are using point spreads here. None of that ESPN-ish winners picks on this site. We’re all grown up now.
Anyway, as for last week, there is an excuse or two to offer. I would have sworn the Bengals would have tried a little harder last week. And that goes for Indianapolis too. I was really disappointed in both teams really, Indianapolis because it was bad enough they had already thrown the towel in on an undefeated season and the Bengals because they had been one of my feel-good teams this year along with the Niners. I expected more from them.
Then the Eagles threw in a real dud against the Cowboys. I still can’t figure out whether the NFC East title meant anything at all to them. But did they really figure the Giants had any chance whatever against the Vikings? I don’t think so. So they had no real shot at the 2 seed and, as far as I know, the NFL isn’t handing out championship belts to just any old division winner. So the Eagles had nothing to gain and everything to lose by throwing all their cards on the table. As Romo had a lot of time to throw, I have to think they were just dogging it. Even Romo was surprised.
But that doesn’t mean I think they’ll beat Dallas. I think they’ll lose by around six. Sometimes you can do all your shrewd little ruses and outsmart yourself. I think that’s what will happen to the Eagles. They’ll come out with fire but they’ll be in the Cowboys gigantic home, and there’ll be cheerleaders and that low scoreboard and Jerry Jones….the first bad thing that happens to the Eagles will just incite that crowd and before you know it, things will start turning bad.
The Eagles are pretty young too. It’s usually experience that pulls teams through these postseason wars and the Eagles just don’t have that much of it. So they’ll bring the heat and maybe get burned and then there’ll be Marion Barber bein’ pesky and Demarcus Ware making things tough on Donovan and maybe some of these young Eagles guns will get the dropsies or fumble or just not be as good as they usually are.
The Cowboys have had enough bad things happen to them. They’ll play a conservative game for them but they’ll frustrate that Philly offense and hang around till the pressure gets to those Birds, whose offense just isn’t that versatile. I figure there’ll be a turnover or two at just the wrong time and the Boyz will prevail.
The over-under’s at 45 and the Eagles get 3 ½ but it won’t be enough. I think it’ll be 26-20, Cowboys.
But the game most New Yorkers (and Jerseyans) care about is the Jets game. It’s difficult to say what will happen under these peculiar circumstances, playing the same team again, one that you beat handily but they didn’t give it their best. They didn’t start their Cedric Benson. They gave 3 of their defensive injured another week off.
Interestingly enough, these 3 injured defensemen ain’t just chopped liver. I know. The Bengals were my fantasy defense. They lost Geathers first as I recall, then the other two shortly thereafter. Robert Geathers is their best defensive lineman. When they lost the defensive tackle as well, Domata Peko, the whole left side of their defense was decimated. (They play a 4-3). Peka is 6-3 and 325 and is key to the Bengals run defense. The other injured Bengal was Chris Crocker, their free safety, and we all saw what happened to the Giants when they lost their safety. All three are returning. They’ll be full-strength for the first time in weeks. They’ll be psyched in Cincinnati. Count on it.
So count on the Jets not having quite as much success on the ground. They’ll get some yards but it won’t even approach what they had last week. There could be a lot of three and outs. And then Sanchez will throw. He’ll throw some safe stuff and he’ll be careful with the ball. And sooner or later he’ll find Braylon Edwards, who might even make a catch.
Speaking of versatile offenses, the Jets don’t have one. They’ve been running their way to mini-celebrity in the City and that’ll continue but they just won’t be very good at it tomorrow. Cotchery, Dustin Keller, Braylon Edwards, they just aren’t that formidable.
Speaking of formidable, though, that would be their defense. They won’t go away. And Cedric Benson may be their #1 running back but I just don’t think he’ll make that much of a difference. They’ll fare better than last week, probably running at the middle of the Jets defense, hoping to take advantage of good ol’ Sione Pouha. (I love that name).
So what we’ll see tomorrow is the same kind of offense from both sides. It’ll be one of those battles for field position, 3 yards and a cloud of dust….stuff like that.
The over-under is 34. The Jets are getting 2 ½. I figure that’ll be just about right. The Jets will cover but they may not win. That’s the bad news. Carson Palmer being who he is and Mark Sanchez being who he is, you have to like the Bengals chances late in the game.
The most likely scenario is another Falcons affair, a late Bengals touchdown to put them ahead by one. The good news, besides covering the spread, is that they’ll look pretty good and won’t totally embarrass themselves. Hell, they might even win.
But I don’t expect it.
Other games:
Pats 27-24 over Baltimore. Ravens cover
Packers 30-27 over Cards in a pickem game.
Anyway, as for last week, there is an excuse or two to offer. I would have sworn the Bengals would have tried a little harder last week. And that goes for Indianapolis too. I was really disappointed in both teams really, Indianapolis because it was bad enough they had already thrown the towel in on an undefeated season and the Bengals because they had been one of my feel-good teams this year along with the Niners. I expected more from them.
Then the Eagles threw in a real dud against the Cowboys. I still can’t figure out whether the NFC East title meant anything at all to them. But did they really figure the Giants had any chance whatever against the Vikings? I don’t think so. So they had no real shot at the 2 seed and, as far as I know, the NFL isn’t handing out championship belts to just any old division winner. So the Eagles had nothing to gain and everything to lose by throwing all their cards on the table. As Romo had a lot of time to throw, I have to think they were just dogging it. Even Romo was surprised.
But that doesn’t mean I think they’ll beat Dallas. I think they’ll lose by around six. Sometimes you can do all your shrewd little ruses and outsmart yourself. I think that’s what will happen to the Eagles. They’ll come out with fire but they’ll be in the Cowboys gigantic home, and there’ll be cheerleaders and that low scoreboard and Jerry Jones….the first bad thing that happens to the Eagles will just incite that crowd and before you know it, things will start turning bad.
The Eagles are pretty young too. It’s usually experience that pulls teams through these postseason wars and the Eagles just don’t have that much of it. So they’ll bring the heat and maybe get burned and then there’ll be Marion Barber bein’ pesky and Demarcus Ware making things tough on Donovan and maybe some of these young Eagles guns will get the dropsies or fumble or just not be as good as they usually are.
The Cowboys have had enough bad things happen to them. They’ll play a conservative game for them but they’ll frustrate that Philly offense and hang around till the pressure gets to those Birds, whose offense just isn’t that versatile. I figure there’ll be a turnover or two at just the wrong time and the Boyz will prevail.
The over-under’s at 45 and the Eagles get 3 ½ but it won’t be enough. I think it’ll be 26-20, Cowboys.
But the game most New Yorkers (and Jerseyans) care about is the Jets game. It’s difficult to say what will happen under these peculiar circumstances, playing the same team again, one that you beat handily but they didn’t give it their best. They didn’t start their Cedric Benson. They gave 3 of their defensive injured another week off.
Interestingly enough, these 3 injured defensemen ain’t just chopped liver. I know. The Bengals were my fantasy defense. They lost Geathers first as I recall, then the other two shortly thereafter. Robert Geathers is their best defensive lineman. When they lost the defensive tackle as well, Domata Peko, the whole left side of their defense was decimated. (They play a 4-3). Peka is 6-3 and 325 and is key to the Bengals run defense. The other injured Bengal was Chris Crocker, their free safety, and we all saw what happened to the Giants when they lost their safety. All three are returning. They’ll be full-strength for the first time in weeks. They’ll be psyched in Cincinnati. Count on it.
So count on the Jets not having quite as much success on the ground. They’ll get some yards but it won’t even approach what they had last week. There could be a lot of three and outs. And then Sanchez will throw. He’ll throw some safe stuff and he’ll be careful with the ball. And sooner or later he’ll find Braylon Edwards, who might even make a catch.
Speaking of versatile offenses, the Jets don’t have one. They’ve been running their way to mini-celebrity in the City and that’ll continue but they just won’t be very good at it tomorrow. Cotchery, Dustin Keller, Braylon Edwards, they just aren’t that formidable.
Speaking of formidable, though, that would be their defense. They won’t go away. And Cedric Benson may be their #1 running back but I just don’t think he’ll make that much of a difference. They’ll fare better than last week, probably running at the middle of the Jets defense, hoping to take advantage of good ol’ Sione Pouha. (I love that name).
So what we’ll see tomorrow is the same kind of offense from both sides. It’ll be one of those battles for field position, 3 yards and a cloud of dust….stuff like that.
The over-under is 34. The Jets are getting 2 ½. I figure that’ll be just about right. The Jets will cover but they may not win. That’s the bad news. Carson Palmer being who he is and Mark Sanchez being who he is, you have to like the Bengals chances late in the game.
The most likely scenario is another Falcons affair, a late Bengals touchdown to put them ahead by one. The good news, besides covering the spread, is that they’ll look pretty good and won’t totally embarrass themselves. Hell, they might even win.
But I don’t expect it.
Other games:
Pats 27-24 over Baltimore. Ravens cover
Packers 30-27 over Cards in a pickem game.
Thursday, December 31, 2009
Eagles-Boyz and Week 17 Picks
Week 16 was an unqualified success. 10-4-1. Very satisfying. Cumulative stands at a very nice 94-78-3.
The miserable performance the Giants threw in totally messed up my weekly 4 best bets. Oh, and a popular theory says the Giants biggest problem is attitude. I say that's nonsense. Their biggest problem is they play confused. Especially on defense. It's so obvious. The only game the defense held up on was the Skins game. They're pretty stoppable. If I were the new Skins head of operations, I'd seriously consider a new quarterback. Really.
And now Osi says he's on the way out. Why IS that exactly? All I know is that the Giants used to have a defense, have almost always had a good defense, and I can't really get used to this bunch. It's the coverage, stupid, and the pass rush, that just isn't there. Seems Antonio Pierce could have made a big difference. But maybe not.
My comment on the Jets for that selection (over the Colts) was "who knows who'll play for Indi ?".........Manning was pissed, it was great, heh-heh.
I thought the big radio guy went too tough on the Jets for defending their victory. I mean, they won. What would you have said if they had STILL lost? Let's face it, these Jets will say stupid things because....well, they're a long way from diplomatic, and it doesn't take much success to go to their heads. But they're a tough bunch on defense. Would you rather have them talk about execution? (finger down throat)
The Jets are having a party at Giants Stadium at halftime. I have a feeling the Bengals will do all they can to put a damper on proceedings. That doesn't mean the Jets will necessarily fold either. It's just that it might be a very tough game. I may even eschew NFL Redzone to watch the WHOLE thing. After all, fantasy season is over for me. (I did take third though, woohoo!)
The tough thing is watching the Jets offense. It can be a painful thing. And I'd hope they let Sanchez loose a little throughout the game, I think they'll need his arm against the Bengals. The kid throws a nice pass, epecially when he's on the run. Seems like caging a tiger to put these shackles on him. Yeah, I know, he turns it over but still.....he's not friggin' Craig Morton, ya know?
But Week 17 is dominated by the Cowboys-Eagles game. It's got everything...tradition? You bet. Exciting players? Yeah, well, I've shown two of them up top there. Jason Avant isn't even DeSean Jackson or Jeremy Maclin, two even more spectacular receivers. He made a really nice catch at the goal line on what looked like a deflection against the poor Broncos, and then later on Asante Samuel just did what he does best....intercept the ball and get it going the other way.
Anyway, my point is you've got these wacky young guys and Number 5 going against a none-too-brash Tony Romo, that gigantic offensive line and Jersey's own Miles Austin. Then there's Marion Barber and geez, Jerry Jones too. What a friggin' circus it could be!
Anyway, let me extend my current winning pct to the final week.
For your Week 17 consideration:
Favorite Spread Underdog 4 Best My Pick Reason
MIN 9 Nyg * MIN It's all over...even the shoutin'
NYJ 10 Cin Cin Ocho Cinco's playing...why not the others?
BUF 5 Ind Ind Difficult to pick Bills under any circumstances
CAR 5 NO CAR Panthers gone wild. last two
CLE 1 Jac Cle Browns favored again! Keep Mangini?
DAL 3 Phi Phi Eagles are better...for NFC East title and poss 2 seed
Chi 3 DET * Chi Did ya see da Bears-Vikings game?
Hou 8 1/2 NE Hou Another one-hand clapping affair
Pit 3 MIA Pit Both have chances..Steelers have the goods
49ers 7 STL * 49ers First time non-losing since 2002, for big Mike S.
Atl 3 TB Atl Falcons have the QB
ARI 3 Pack ARI this is the first of two meetings
DEN 13 1/2 Chiefs * DEN Broncs hope Bengals beat Jets
Bal 11 OAK OAK At home with nothin' to lose and 13 1/2
SD 4 Was SD Who knows how bad Skins are
The best bets for Week 17:
Vikings – Must get well for playoffs, tough loss to Bears....Favre against that horrible Giants secondary. Peterson against that deflated D.
Bears– Bears showed a lot against the Vikings as for potential, the Lions don't have much to motivate them.
Broncos – after tough Eagles loss, they'll run the Chiefs wild. They have a decent shot at playoffs.
Niners – I really think the Niners players will take advantage of a losing team as tribute to Singletary. A win and they'll have the best Niners record since 2002. Optimism will abound in the city by the bay.
That's it. HAPPY NEW YEAR !!
P.S. Okay, Mets fans, we have Jason Bay at long last. Let's see ...that lineup....1.Reyes, 2.Castillo?, 3.Beltran, 4.Bay, 5.Wright,6.Delgado7.Francoeur 8.B. Molina?9. Pitcher
Then....starters the same for now....Santana, Maine, Pelfrey, Perez, Niese, Parnel...........,then Kelvim Escobar and Ryota Igarashi added to relief corps....hmm.
Prices will be coming down, folks...
J -E -T - S...........
The miserable performance the Giants threw in totally messed up my weekly 4 best bets. Oh, and a popular theory says the Giants biggest problem is attitude. I say that's nonsense. Their biggest problem is they play confused. Especially on defense. It's so obvious. The only game the defense held up on was the Skins game. They're pretty stoppable. If I were the new Skins head of operations, I'd seriously consider a new quarterback. Really.
And now Osi says he's on the way out. Why IS that exactly? All I know is that the Giants used to have a defense, have almost always had a good defense, and I can't really get used to this bunch. It's the coverage, stupid, and the pass rush, that just isn't there. Seems Antonio Pierce could have made a big difference. But maybe not.
My comment on the Jets for that selection (over the Colts) was "who knows who'll play for Indi ?".........Manning was pissed, it was great, heh-heh.
I thought the big radio guy went too tough on the Jets for defending their victory. I mean, they won. What would you have said if they had STILL lost? Let's face it, these Jets will say stupid things because....well, they're a long way from diplomatic, and it doesn't take much success to go to their heads. But they're a tough bunch on defense. Would you rather have them talk about execution? (finger down throat)
The Jets are having a party at Giants Stadium at halftime. I have a feeling the Bengals will do all they can to put a damper on proceedings. That doesn't mean the Jets will necessarily fold either. It's just that it might be a very tough game. I may even eschew NFL Redzone to watch the WHOLE thing. After all, fantasy season is over for me. (I did take third though, woohoo!)
The tough thing is watching the Jets offense. It can be a painful thing. And I'd hope they let Sanchez loose a little throughout the game, I think they'll need his arm against the Bengals. The kid throws a nice pass, epecially when he's on the run. Seems like caging a tiger to put these shackles on him. Yeah, I know, he turns it over but still.....he's not friggin' Craig Morton, ya know?
But Week 17 is dominated by the Cowboys-Eagles game. It's got everything...tradition? You bet. Exciting players? Yeah, well, I've shown two of them up top there. Jason Avant isn't even DeSean Jackson or Jeremy Maclin, two even more spectacular receivers. He made a really nice catch at the goal line on what looked like a deflection against the poor Broncos, and then later on Asante Samuel just did what he does best....intercept the ball and get it going the other way.
Anyway, my point is you've got these wacky young guys and Number 5 going against a none-too-brash Tony Romo, that gigantic offensive line and Jersey's own Miles Austin. Then there's Marion Barber and geez, Jerry Jones too. What a friggin' circus it could be!
Anyway, let me extend my current winning pct to the final week.
For your Week 17 consideration:
Favorite Spread Underdog 4 Best My Pick Reason
MIN 9 Nyg * MIN It's all over...even the shoutin'
NYJ 10 Cin Cin Ocho Cinco's playing...why not the others?
BUF 5 Ind Ind Difficult to pick Bills under any circumstances
CAR 5 NO CAR Panthers gone wild. last two
CLE 1 Jac Cle Browns favored again! Keep Mangini?
DAL 3 Phi Phi Eagles are better...for NFC East title and poss 2 seed
Chi 3 DET * Chi Did ya see da Bears-Vikings game?
Hou 8 1/2 NE Hou Another one-hand clapping affair
Pit 3 MIA Pit Both have chances..Steelers have the goods
49ers 7 STL * 49ers First time non-losing since 2002, for big Mike S.
Atl 3 TB Atl Falcons have the QB
ARI 3 Pack ARI this is the first of two meetings
DEN 13 1/2 Chiefs * DEN Broncs hope Bengals beat Jets
Bal 11 OAK OAK At home with nothin' to lose and 13 1/2
SD 4 Was SD Who knows how bad Skins are
The best bets for Week 17:
Vikings – Must get well for playoffs, tough loss to Bears....Favre against that horrible Giants secondary. Peterson against that deflated D.
Bears– Bears showed a lot against the Vikings as for potential, the Lions don't have much to motivate them.
Broncos – after tough Eagles loss, they'll run the Chiefs wild. They have a decent shot at playoffs.
Niners – I really think the Niners players will take advantage of a losing team as tribute to Singletary. A win and they'll have the best Niners record since 2002. Optimism will abound in the city by the bay.
That's it. HAPPY NEW YEAR !!
P.S. Okay, Mets fans, we have Jason Bay at long last. Let's see ...that lineup....1.Reyes, 2.Castillo?, 3.Beltran, 4.Bay, 5.Wright,6.Delgado7.Francoeur 8.B. Molina?9. Pitcher
Then....starters the same for now....Santana, Maine, Pelfrey, Perez, Niese, Parnel...........,then Kelvim Escobar and Ryota Igarashi added to relief corps....hmm.
Prices will be coming down, folks...
J -E -T - S...........
Sunday, December 27, 2009
Week 16 Picks
Well, week 15 was my worst ever. Two wins and two ties. All the rest were bad. An amazingly bad week. Still cum is 84-74-3.
Here’s the picks for all the games, with spreads again from The Star-Ledger
Favorite Spread Underdog 4 Best My Pick Reason
GIANTS 7 ½ Panthers * GIANTS GIANTS need the win
COLTS 5 ½ Jets Jets Who knows who’ll play for Indi
GB 14 Sea GB You are what your record sez, no?
BROWNS 3 Oak Oak Raiduhs have a defense
CIN 13 ½ Kc Kc Too many points
ATL 9 Buf Buf Circle the wagons
MIA 1 ½ Tex Tex Tex better all around
NO 14 Bucs NO Make up for last week
PATS 9 Jags PATS Jags awful in last week
PIT 3 Bal * Bal Ravens just better
PHI 7 Den Den Game will be closer
ARI 14 ½ Rams ARI Warner to all?
SF 13 Det * SF Back to Singletary
Dal 7 SKINS * Dal What’s to recommend Skins?
MIN 7 CHI MIN Vikes embarrassed in last
The best bets for Week 16:
Cowboys – Cowboys back to Cowboys football. The Skins have regressed if that’s even possible.
Niners – Mike S has his Niners rounding into form while the Lions are improving but are overmatched in this one.
Ravens – Ravens have a defense, at least, and I’m not sure anymore WHAT the Steelers have, except for a very lucky quarterback.
Giants – This is partly just hoping that last week wasn’t an anomaly-nice word, that
Here’s the picks for all the games, with spreads again from The Star-Ledger
Favorite Spread Underdog 4 Best My Pick Reason
GIANTS 7 ½ Panthers * GIANTS GIANTS need the win
COLTS 5 ½ Jets Jets Who knows who’ll play for Indi
GB 14 Sea GB You are what your record sez, no?
BROWNS 3 Oak Oak Raiduhs have a defense
CIN 13 ½ Kc Kc Too many points
ATL 9 Buf Buf Circle the wagons
MIA 1 ½ Tex Tex Tex better all around
NO 14 Bucs NO Make up for last week
PATS 9 Jags PATS Jags awful in last week
PIT 3 Bal * Bal Ravens just better
PHI 7 Den Den Game will be closer
ARI 14 ½ Rams ARI Warner to all?
SF 13 Det * SF Back to Singletary
Dal 7 SKINS * Dal What’s to recommend Skins?
MIN 7 CHI MIN Vikes embarrassed in last
The best bets for Week 16:
Cowboys – Cowboys back to Cowboys football. The Skins have regressed if that’s even possible.
Niners – Mike S has his Niners rounding into form while the Lions are improving but are overmatched in this one.
Ravens – Ravens have a defense, at least, and I’m not sure anymore WHAT the Steelers have, except for a very lucky quarterback.
Giants – This is partly just hoping that last week wasn’t an anomaly-nice word, that
Friday, November 20, 2009
Quick Hitters and Week 11 NFL Picks
Favorite Spread Underdog 4 Best My Pick Reason
GIANTS 6 ½ Falcons * Falcons If G-Men win at all, will be close
PATS 10 ½ Jets Jets If Jets don’t cover, I’ll cry
LIONS 3 Browns LIONS Browns show no good signs
JAGS 9 Bills Bills New coach, new effort?
Steelers 10 CHIEFS Steelers Steelers embarrassed by Bengals
Colts 1 RAVENS Colts I like beans, not Rice
PACK 6 ½ 49ers * 49ers 49ers like the Midwest
VIKES 10 ½ Sea VIKES Vikes like to cover
BOYZ 11 Skins * Skins Aw, c’mon man…11?
Saints 11 ½ TB TB Bucs have found themselves
Cards 9 RAMS Cards That’s about it for Rams
Bengals 9 ½ OAK OAK Bengals too high, win close
BRONCS 3 Chargers Chargers Bolts keep flashing
Eagles 3 BEARS * Eagles McNabb has a field day
TEXANS 5 Titans TEXANS Titans pass defense, convince me..
Things are really lookin’ good the last several weeks. Week 10 yielded a 9-5 record and cumulative now stands at a pretty healthy 54-40 (or fight). I don’t pick Thursday games and from the lineup I’ve seen, I won’t be missing much. Best bets though suffered once again, a result of the Cowboys and Saints miserable performances.
I must say I took it on the chin for the Saints pick big-time. My brother, the Rams expert, let me know what a horrible pick it was before the game so I’m humbled. He does have a knack now and then, and it’s never a secret.
I keep thinking I’m due for a bad week, so bet with your head……yada yada. I’m half-expecting SHRINKAGE, in my cumulative record that is..
The G-Men haven’t won in quite some time. I’ll be happy if they win by 1. 6 ½ seems kind of optimistic. I mean, really. Just exactly which Giants are going to come to the fore, with all that pressure at home. Even if they’re good, the defensive coordinator will screw it up.
The Niners have really done pretty well when they’ve played in the Midwest and after the Niners last week’s paltry offensive performance and the Pack’s great showing against the Cowboys, I’m expecting a return to form.
Meanwhile, I know the game’s in Big D but this is one of those classic NFC East matchups and the Skins have been looking way better than they had in the early season. They have a lot of making up to do and I think this might be the spot for it.
My Eagles pick is more of a slap at the horrid Bears and their equally horrid coach than it is some kind of affirmation for the Eagles. But somebody has to play some pass defense and the Bears have shown no inclination to do so.
Aside from football, I’m really happy for Michelle Wie finally breaking out and not becoming the Anna Kournikova of golf. And I’m glad she pulled out of her most recent tournament after shooting a 72. When you’re hurt, you’re hurt. Especially if you happen to be 19 years old.
The Mets haven’t made a move yet and spent less on the amateur draft than everybody else. That can’t be good.
Why can’t I get into the NBA this year? And it’s not just the Knicks and Nets being awful, it’s the whole damn thing. Lebron, Kobe, ad nauseum still and why can’t rookies get a break? In what other sport do rookies have no chance at all? Why was I ever watching this stuff? Well, maybe it was Jason Kidd.
The Yanks are supposed to be looking at getting Mark DeRosa. If so, it would be an excellent move. With age all over the place on that roster, it can’t hurt to have better backups. Ask the Mets.
Oh, and I still want Matt Holliday over Roy Halladay. I hope Omar was saving his money for him first. The pitching is shaky but the lineup is very very weak. What if Wright doesn’t break out of his power slump? What if Beltran’s now chronic knee problems continue?
Okay, that’s enough of the quick hitters. And speaking of quick hitters, there’s a fella named Figgins who’s one. What if Reyes can’t come back strong…or healthy…or fast?
GIANTS 6 ½ Falcons * Falcons If G-Men win at all, will be close
PATS 10 ½ Jets Jets If Jets don’t cover, I’ll cry
LIONS 3 Browns LIONS Browns show no good signs
JAGS 9 Bills Bills New coach, new effort?
Steelers 10 CHIEFS Steelers Steelers embarrassed by Bengals
Colts 1 RAVENS Colts I like beans, not Rice
PACK 6 ½ 49ers * 49ers 49ers like the Midwest
VIKES 10 ½ Sea VIKES Vikes like to cover
BOYZ 11 Skins * Skins Aw, c’mon man…11?
Saints 11 ½ TB TB Bucs have found themselves
Cards 9 RAMS Cards That’s about it for Rams
Bengals 9 ½ OAK OAK Bengals too high, win close
BRONCS 3 Chargers Chargers Bolts keep flashing
Eagles 3 BEARS * Eagles McNabb has a field day
TEXANS 5 Titans TEXANS Titans pass defense, convince me..
Things are really lookin’ good the last several weeks. Week 10 yielded a 9-5 record and cumulative now stands at a pretty healthy 54-40 (or fight). I don’t pick Thursday games and from the lineup I’ve seen, I won’t be missing much. Best bets though suffered once again, a result of the Cowboys and Saints miserable performances.
I must say I took it on the chin for the Saints pick big-time. My brother, the Rams expert, let me know what a horrible pick it was before the game so I’m humbled. He does have a knack now and then, and it’s never a secret.
I keep thinking I’m due for a bad week, so bet with your head……yada yada. I’m half-expecting SHRINKAGE, in my cumulative record that is..
The G-Men haven’t won in quite some time. I’ll be happy if they win by 1. 6 ½ seems kind of optimistic. I mean, really. Just exactly which Giants are going to come to the fore, with all that pressure at home. Even if they’re good, the defensive coordinator will screw it up.
The Niners have really done pretty well when they’ve played in the Midwest and after the Niners last week’s paltry offensive performance and the Pack’s great showing against the Cowboys, I’m expecting a return to form.
Meanwhile, I know the game’s in Big D but this is one of those classic NFC East matchups and the Skins have been looking way better than they had in the early season. They have a lot of making up to do and I think this might be the spot for it.
My Eagles pick is more of a slap at the horrid Bears and their equally horrid coach than it is some kind of affirmation for the Eagles. But somebody has to play some pass defense and the Bears have shown no inclination to do so.
Aside from football, I’m really happy for Michelle Wie finally breaking out and not becoming the Anna Kournikova of golf. And I’m glad she pulled out of her most recent tournament after shooting a 72. When you’re hurt, you’re hurt. Especially if you happen to be 19 years old.
The Mets haven’t made a move yet and spent less on the amateur draft than everybody else. That can’t be good.
Why can’t I get into the NBA this year? And it’s not just the Knicks and Nets being awful, it’s the whole damn thing. Lebron, Kobe, ad nauseum still and why can’t rookies get a break? In what other sport do rookies have no chance at all? Why was I ever watching this stuff? Well, maybe it was Jason Kidd.
The Yanks are supposed to be looking at getting Mark DeRosa. If so, it would be an excellent move. With age all over the place on that roster, it can’t hurt to have better backups. Ask the Mets.
Oh, and I still want Matt Holliday over Roy Halladay. I hope Omar was saving his money for him first. The pitching is shaky but the lineup is very very weak. What if Wright doesn’t break out of his power slump? What if Beltran’s now chronic knee problems continue?
Okay, that’s enough of the quick hitters. And speaking of quick hitters, there’s a fella named Figgins who’s one. What if Reyes can’t come back strong…or healthy…or fast?
Friday, October 16, 2009
Week 6 NFL Picks
No big story today, just the picks for the week. In Week 5, I went 3 of 4 on my best bets, having been victimized by the thoroughly chastened Jets against the Fish. I foolishly thought the Jets could stop the run. Just as silly, I thought the Jets could stop Drew Henne. Instead I got Land Shark Stadium frenzy and Jay Lo and inspired performances from anybody wearing friggin’ teal.
On overall picks against the spread, I was 6 and 8 for the second week in a row. My best bets were much better and I was THIS close to winning ten bucks.
<>Maybe I’m no good at this? Nah, you’ll see.
Carolina is just too good for the Bucs. Josh Johnson, the new starting qb, is learning about life in the NFL as is much of the Bucs team. Carolina is coming off a come-from-behind win and should be re-energized. Their horrible pass defense shows no signs of getting better. I suspect bad coaching all over the place in Tampa.
Philadelphia has Number 5 back (McNabb of course) and still another wideout named Maclin to add to a bevy of fine hands. Oakland is just playing out the string and who could blame them with the quarterback they have? Jamarcus Russell is the worst QB I've seen in many years. Once again, is there any coaching happening in Oakland?
Atlanta is coming off a big win against the Niners in a game that was supposed to be close. Who could have guessed the Niners would be all full of themselves, as personified by Dre Bly, their ridiculous corner. My guess is da Bears will be da Bears and kick some Falcon butt.
For a Charger team that looked awful against the Steelers, and that showed no defense at all, it's hard to imagine them beating a Bronco team by 6 or more, no matter how good their offense. Broncs playing tough and disciplined, like its quarterback.
Favorite Underdog Spread 4 Best My Pick Reason
MIN Bal 3 ½ Bal Favre and Vikings meet a real opponent
WAS KCy 6 ½ KCy Chiefs good enough to stay close if not win
CIN Hou 5 ½ Hou Cinci a little too comfortable
PIT Cle 13 ½ PIT Steelers will pour it on late, Polamalu return?
JAC StLo 13 StLo Rams will surprise, stop run
NO Nyg 3 NO Giants pass defense will be exposed
CAR TmpBy 3 * CAR Tampa can’t stop pass, new QB not the answer
GB Det 10 ½ GB Big spread but GB gets its OL back
PHI Oak 13 ½ * PHI Hard to imagine a spread too high
SEA Ari 2 ½ Ari Cards still AFC Super Bowl representative
NYJ Buf 9 NYJ Ryan stirred them up
NE Ten 9 NE Tennessee’s a mess, Pats aren’t
ATL Chi 4 ½ * Chi Atlanta won’t be facing Dre Bly this week
SD Den 6 * Den Div battle will be much closer
On overall picks against the spread, I was 6 and 8 for the second week in a row. My best bets were much better and I was THIS close to winning ten bucks.
<>Maybe I’m no good at this? Nah, you’ll see.
Carolina is just too good for the Bucs. Josh Johnson, the new starting qb, is learning about life in the NFL as is much of the Bucs team. Carolina is coming off a come-from-behind win and should be re-energized. Their horrible pass defense shows no signs of getting better. I suspect bad coaching all over the place in Tampa.
Philadelphia has Number 5 back (McNabb of course) and still another wideout named Maclin to add to a bevy of fine hands. Oakland is just playing out the string and who could blame them with the quarterback they have? Jamarcus Russell is the worst QB I've seen in many years. Once again, is there any coaching happening in Oakland?
Atlanta is coming off a big win against the Niners in a game that was supposed to be close. Who could have guessed the Niners would be all full of themselves, as personified by Dre Bly, their ridiculous corner. My guess is da Bears will be da Bears and kick some Falcon butt.
For a Charger team that looked awful against the Steelers, and that showed no defense at all, it's hard to imagine them beating a Bronco team by 6 or more, no matter how good their offense. Broncs playing tough and disciplined, like its quarterback.
Favorite Underdog Spread 4 Best My Pick Reason
MIN Bal 3 ½ Bal Favre and Vikings meet a real opponent
WAS KCy 6 ½ KCy Chiefs good enough to stay close if not win
CIN Hou 5 ½ Hou Cinci a little too comfortable
PIT Cle 13 ½ PIT Steelers will pour it on late, Polamalu return?
JAC StLo 13 StLo Rams will surprise, stop run
NO Nyg 3 NO Giants pass defense will be exposed
CAR TmpBy 3 * CAR Tampa can’t stop pass, new QB not the answer
GB Det 10 ½ GB Big spread but GB gets its OL back
PHI Oak 13 ½ * PHI Hard to imagine a spread too high
SEA Ari 2 ½ Ari Cards still AFC Super Bowl representative
NYJ Buf 9 NYJ Ryan stirred them up
NE Ten 9 NE Tennessee’s a mess, Pats aren’t
ATL Chi 4 ½ * Chi Atlanta won’t be facing Dre Bly this week
SD Den 6 * Den Div battle will be much closer
Friday, October 9, 2009
It's A New Week, Isn't It?
Okay, I’m trying to look at the bright side. Sure, the Mets have had nothing all season. It’s raining. It’s soggy. No, not saggy, that would be Posada’s face. Talk about pouting, come on, Jorge, suck it up. And Holliday makes a 2-out friggin’ drop to just kill the Cardinals. Made his homer look really inconsequential.
In football, I went 6 and 8 against the spread, just awful. I’m embarrassed. And Francesa’s broadcasting from Yankee Stadium. How depressing is that? Mike really lines up a great Friday show though, and he’s got college and NFL football, Troy Aikman, who isn’t a total fool, and various assorted (and sordid) guests of questionable renown….better than Manny from Brooklyn?
I tried an outline for this piece, first line was “Posada is a ____. I can’t even tell you how bad that is. I mean, let’s look at Posada’s good points. There are many. For example, Jorge can hit. Um, let’s see, what else, what else….hmm..he’s a leader in the clubhouse, how friggin vague is that?
Surely there’s more, um, can he throw people out? Well, 30% of the time, that’s not horrible, I guess. Is he good with pitchers? Hmmm. I hated him with Chamberlain and he doesn’t match Burnett that well….at all. He’s ok with CC and Pettite, so the theory goes…Molina doesn’t throw out a ton of runners either but he’s probably not obnoxious would be my guess. Heh-heh.
Did I mention Posada can hit? Oh yeah, that. I’d play Molina every day of the week. But that’s me, hitting isn’t everything, or haven’t I made that clear yet?
I was extremely ready for the Cards to hold on in Game 2. Wainwright was awesome for eight, and Holliday’s solo homer helped build a 2-1 lead. Then I worried that Franklin wouldn’t hold them, them being the Dodgers. It didn’t look as if he would hold them but then he got a liner to left. I said, “whew” when I saw Holliday would get there. Then there was his muff…..oh man.
It was one of those balls that hit you in the middle of things, glove up, glove down… and he was coming in hard and …… well, he missed it. And then you knew things were seriously downhill already. So the Dodgers are in real good shape, not an outcome I was personally looking forward to.
Then there was Week 4 that fooled me in a lot of spots. Who would’ve believed the Chargers had such a bunch of pushovers on defense? Not me. And I thought the Giants would have a down week for sure. But the Chiefs made mistakes early. It wasn’t a game after that. And I’m afraid I may have under-rated those Browns. If those three went as expected, my overall picks record would’ve looked ok. Anyway, here’s my week 5 picks. (I feel a 10-4 coming on).
Week 5 Picks
Favorite Underdog Spread 4 Best My Pick Reason
Min STL 10 * Min Favre will pad lead to run up his stats
Dal KC 8 ½ Dal After loss to Den, Dallas will run up score
CAR Was 3 ½ CAR Campbell is awful
PHI TamBay 15 PHI Tampa can’t stop pass, #5 is back
NYG Oak 15 Oak Giants don’t run up score, Oak pass defense good
BUF Cle 6 Cle Buffalo can’t stop run
BAL Cin 8 ½ * Cin Cinci Defense will surprise
Pit DET 10 ½ Pit Lost momentum w/o Stafford
SF Atl 2 ½ SF Niners may win it all
NewEng DEN 3 NewEng Pats make a point –master beats apprentice
ARZ Hou 5 ½ * ARZ Cards had plenty of prep time after bye week
Jac SEA NL Jac Seattle’s a mess, Jags aren’t
Ind TEN 4 Ind Hard to tell when Titans will stop anybody
Jets MIA 2 * Jets Jets will stop Miami run, Sanchez bounceback
My best bets (which I didn’t bother with last week, thank Jupiter) are the Vikings, Bengals, Cards and Jets. I’m going to pretend my best bets are one of those betting slips and I’ve got to pick all four to win.
“So what”? you ask. Let’s look closer at these contests.
Okay, the Vikings. They just rolled over the Packers. It was very sad indeed, especially if you happen to hate Favre. Green Bay did stop the run pretty well and Peterson didn’t do much. But maybe that wasn’t the way to go with defense as things turned out. And the Rams just were annihilated vs. the Niners last week. The Niners didn’t really even have much of an offense. The Vikings apparently do. It would take an enormous Viking flop for them not to just win but cover at just ten points.
I’ve liked Cincinnati all year. Cleveland was playing way above their heads last week, I was really impressed. But the Bengals didn’t fold. They hung on. How much better will Flacco and the Colts be than were Derek Anderson and the Browns in the Battle of Ohio? C’mon man, it was the Battle of friggin’ Ohio.
Kurt Warner with a week off along with his Arizona team should wipe up the Texans. They had a week to work on their running game and get receivers well. They did go to the Super Bowl last year. The Texans had horrible defensive performances for three weeks before holding the Raiders down last week. That’s Al Davis’s Raiders, folks. The Cards will romp.
Aah, and then there’s the Jets at Miami and a spread of two. I think the Jets are better than that. I think they can stop the run, they won’t be fooled by a wildcat, and they’re coming off a week of stopping New Orleans, one of the best offensive teams in the league. (I would have said THE best two weeks ago). Then there’s a relatively new quarterback in Miami. Another Chad named Henne. He didn’t do badly last week but it’s a new week, isn’t it.?
In football, I went 6 and 8 against the spread, just awful. I’m embarrassed. And Francesa’s broadcasting from Yankee Stadium. How depressing is that? Mike really lines up a great Friday show though, and he’s got college and NFL football, Troy Aikman, who isn’t a total fool, and various assorted (and sordid) guests of questionable renown….better than Manny from Brooklyn?
I tried an outline for this piece, first line was “Posada is a ____. I can’t even tell you how bad that is. I mean, let’s look at Posada’s good points. There are many. For example, Jorge can hit. Um, let’s see, what else, what else….hmm..he’s a leader in the clubhouse, how friggin vague is that?
Surely there’s more, um, can he throw people out? Well, 30% of the time, that’s not horrible, I guess. Is he good with pitchers? Hmmm. I hated him with Chamberlain and he doesn’t match Burnett that well….at all. He’s ok with CC and Pettite, so the theory goes…Molina doesn’t throw out a ton of runners either but he’s probably not obnoxious would be my guess. Heh-heh.
Did I mention Posada can hit? Oh yeah, that. I’d play Molina every day of the week. But that’s me, hitting isn’t everything, or haven’t I made that clear yet?
I was extremely ready for the Cards to hold on in Game 2. Wainwright was awesome for eight, and Holliday’s solo homer helped build a 2-1 lead. Then I worried that Franklin wouldn’t hold them, them being the Dodgers. It didn’t look as if he would hold them but then he got a liner to left. I said, “whew” when I saw Holliday would get there. Then there was his muff…..oh man.
It was one of those balls that hit you in the middle of things, glove up, glove down… and he was coming in hard and …… well, he missed it. And then you knew things were seriously downhill already. So the Dodgers are in real good shape, not an outcome I was personally looking forward to.
Then there was Week 4 that fooled me in a lot of spots. Who would’ve believed the Chargers had such a bunch of pushovers on defense? Not me. And I thought the Giants would have a down week for sure. But the Chiefs made mistakes early. It wasn’t a game after that. And I’m afraid I may have under-rated those Browns. If those three went as expected, my overall picks record would’ve looked ok. Anyway, here’s my week 5 picks. (I feel a 10-4 coming on).
Week 5 Picks
Favorite Underdog Spread 4 Best My Pick Reason
Min STL 10 * Min Favre will pad lead to run up his stats
Dal KC 8 ½ Dal After loss to Den, Dallas will run up score
CAR Was 3 ½ CAR Campbell is awful
PHI TamBay 15 PHI Tampa can’t stop pass, #5 is back
NYG Oak 15 Oak Giants don’t run up score, Oak pass defense good
BUF Cle 6 Cle Buffalo can’t stop run
BAL Cin 8 ½ * Cin Cinci Defense will surprise
Pit DET 10 ½ Pit Lost momentum w/o Stafford
SF Atl 2 ½ SF Niners may win it all
NewEng DEN 3 NewEng Pats make a point –master beats apprentice
ARZ Hou 5 ½ * ARZ Cards had plenty of prep time after bye week
Jac SEA NL Jac Seattle’s a mess, Jags aren’t
Ind TEN 4 Ind Hard to tell when Titans will stop anybody
Jets MIA 2 * Jets Jets will stop Miami run, Sanchez bounceback
My best bets (which I didn’t bother with last week, thank Jupiter) are the Vikings, Bengals, Cards and Jets. I’m going to pretend my best bets are one of those betting slips and I’ve got to pick all four to win.
“So what”? you ask. Let’s look closer at these contests.
Okay, the Vikings. They just rolled over the Packers. It was very sad indeed, especially if you happen to hate Favre. Green Bay did stop the run pretty well and Peterson didn’t do much. But maybe that wasn’t the way to go with defense as things turned out. And the Rams just were annihilated vs. the Niners last week. The Niners didn’t really even have much of an offense. The Vikings apparently do. It would take an enormous Viking flop for them not to just win but cover at just ten points.
I’ve liked Cincinnati all year. Cleveland was playing way above their heads last week, I was really impressed. But the Bengals didn’t fold. They hung on. How much better will Flacco and the Colts be than were Derek Anderson and the Browns in the Battle of Ohio? C’mon man, it was the Battle of friggin’ Ohio.
Kurt Warner with a week off along with his Arizona team should wipe up the Texans. They had a week to work on their running game and get receivers well. They did go to the Super Bowl last year. The Texans had horrible defensive performances for three weeks before holding the Raiders down last week. That’s Al Davis’s Raiders, folks. The Cards will romp.
Aah, and then there’s the Jets at Miami and a spread of two. I think the Jets are better than that. I think they can stop the run, they won’t be fooled by a wildcat, and they’re coming off a week of stopping New Orleans, one of the best offensive teams in the league. (I would have said THE best two weeks ago). Then there’s a relatively new quarterback in Miami. Another Chad named Henne. He didn’t do badly last week but it’s a new week, isn’t it.?
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