Quick Hitters and Week 11 NFL Picks

Favorite Spread Underdog 4 Best My Pick Reason

GIANTS 6 ½ Falcons * Falcons If G-Men win at all, will be close
PATS 10 ½ Jets Jets If Jets don’t cover, I’ll cry
LIONS 3 Browns LIONS Browns show no good signs
JAGS 9 Bills Bills New coach, new effort?
Steelers 10 CHIEFS Steelers Steelers embarrassed by Bengals
Colts 1 RAVENS Colts I like beans, not Rice
PACK 6 ½ 49ers * 49ers 49ers like the Midwest
VIKES 10 ½ Sea VIKES Vikes like to cover
BOYZ 11 Skins * Skins Aw, c’mon man…11?
Saints 11 ½ TB TB Bucs have found themselves
Cards 9 RAMS Cards That’s about it for Rams
Bengals 9 ½ OAK OAK Bengals too high, win close
BRONCS 3 Chargers Chargers Bolts keep flashing
Eagles 3 BEARS * Eagles McNabb has a field day
TEXANS 5 Titans TEXANS Titans pass defense, convince me..

Things are really lookin’ good the last several weeks. Week 10 yielded a 9-5 record and cumulative now stands at a pretty healthy 54-40 (or fight). I don’t pick Thursday games and from the lineup I’ve seen, I won’t be missing much. Best bets though suffered once again, a result of the Cowboys and Saints miserable performances.

I must say I took it on the chin for the Saints pick big-time. My brother, the Rams expert, let me know what a horrible pick it was before the game so I’m humbled. He does have a knack now and then, and it’s never a secret.

I keep thinking I’m due for a bad week, so bet with your head……yada yada. I’m half-expecting SHRINKAGE, in my cumulative record that is..

The G-Men haven’t won in quite some time. I’ll be happy if they win by 1. 6 ½ seems kind of optimistic. I mean, really. Just exactly which Giants are going to come to the fore, with all that pressure at home. Even if they’re good, the defensive coordinator will screw it up.

The Niners have really done pretty well when they’ve played in the Midwest and after the Niners last week’s paltry offensive performance and the Pack’s great showing against the Cowboys, I’m expecting a return to form.

Meanwhile, I know the game’s in Big D but this is one of those classic NFC East matchups and the Skins have been looking way better than they had in the early season. They have a lot of making up to do and I think this might be the spot for it.

My Eagles pick is more of a slap at the horrid Bears and their equally horrid coach than it is some kind of affirmation for the Eagles. But somebody has to play some pass defense and the Bears have shown no inclination to do so.
Aside from football, I’m really happy for Michelle Wie finally breaking out and not becoming the Anna Kournikova of golf. And I’m glad she pulled out of her most recent tournament after shooting a 72. When you’re hurt, you’re hurt. Especially if you happen to be 19 years old.

The Mets haven’t made a move yet and spent less on the amateur draft than everybody else. That can’t be good.

Why can’t I get into the NBA this year? And it’s not just the Knicks and Nets being awful, it’s the whole damn thing. Lebron, Kobe, ad nauseum still and why can’t rookies get a break? In what other sport do rookies have no chance at all? Why was I ever watching this stuff? Well, maybe it was Jason Kidd.

The Yanks are supposed to be looking at getting Mark DeRosa. If so, it would be an excellent move. With age all over the place on that roster, it can’t hurt to have better backups. Ask the Mets.

Oh, and I still want Matt Holliday over Roy Halladay. I hope Omar was saving his money for him first. The pitching is shaky but the lineup is very very weak. What if Wright doesn’t break out of his power slump? What if Beltran’s now chronic knee problems continue?

Okay, that’s enough of the quick hitters. And speaking of quick hitters, there’s a fella named Figgins who’s one. What if Reyes can’t come back strong…or healthy…or fast?

It's A New Week, Isn't It?

Okay, I’m trying to look at the bright side. Sure, the Mets have had nothing all season. It’s raining. It’s soggy. No, not saggy, that would be Posada’s face. Talk about pouting, come on, Jorge, suck it up. And Holliday makes a 2-out friggin’ drop to just kill the Cardinals. Made his homer look really inconsequential.

In football, I went 6 and 8 against the spread, just awful. I’m embarrassed. And Francesa’s broadcasting from Yankee Stadium. How depressing is that? Mike really lines up a great Friday show though, and he’s got college and NFL football, Troy Aikman, who isn’t a total fool, and various assorted (and sordid) guests of questionable renown….better than Manny from Brooklyn?

I tried an outline for this piece, first line was “Posada is a ____. I can’t even tell you how bad that is. I mean, let’s look at Posada’s good points. There are many. For example, Jorge can hit. Um, let’s see, what else, what else….hmm..he’s a leader in the clubhouse, how friggin vague is that?

Surely there’s more, um, can he throw people out? Well, 30% of the time, that’s not horrible, I guess. Is he good with pitchers? Hmmm. I hated him with Chamberlain and he doesn’t match Burnett that well….at all. He’s ok with CC and Pettite, so the theory goes…Molina doesn’t throw out a ton of runners either but he’s probably not obnoxious would be my guess. Heh-heh.

Did I mention Posada can hit? Oh yeah, that. I’d play Molina every day of the week. But that’s me, hitting isn’t everything, or haven’t I made that clear yet?

I was extremely ready for the Cards to hold on in Game 2. Wainwright was awesome for eight, and Holliday’s solo homer helped build a 2-1 lead. Then I worried that Franklin wouldn’t hold them, them being the Dodgers. It didn’t look as if he would hold them but then he got a liner to left. I said, “whew” when I saw Holliday would get there. Then there was his muff…..oh man.

It was one of those balls that hit you in the middle of things, glove up, glove down… and he was coming in hard and …… well, he missed it. And then you knew things were seriously downhill already. So the Dodgers are in real good shape, not an outcome I was personally looking forward to.

Then there was Week 4 that fooled me in a lot of spots. Who would’ve believed the Chargers had such a bunch of pushovers on defense? Not me. And I thought the Giants would have a down week for sure. But the Chiefs made mistakes early. It wasn’t a game after that. And I’m afraid I may have under-rated those Browns. If those three went as expected, my overall picks record would’ve looked ok. Anyway, here’s my week 5 picks. (I feel a 10-4 coming on).

Week 5 Picks


Favorite Underdog Spread 4 Best My Pick Reason

Min STL 10 * Min Favre will pad lead to run up his stats
Dal KC 8 ½ Dal After loss to Den, Dallas will run up score
CAR Was 3 ½ CAR Campbell is awful
PHI TamBay 15 PHI Tampa can’t stop pass, #5 is back
NYG Oak 15 Oak Giants don’t run up score, Oak pass defense good
BUF Cle 6 Cle Buffalo can’t stop run
BAL Cin 8 ½ * Cin Cinci Defense will surprise
Pit DET 10 ½ Pit Lost momentum w/o Stafford
SF Atl 2 ½ SF Niners may win it all
NewEng DEN 3 NewEng Pats make a point –master beats apprentice
ARZ Hou 5 ½ * ARZ Cards had plenty of prep time after bye week
Jac SEA NL Jac Seattle’s a mess, Jags aren’t
Ind TEN 4 Ind Hard to tell when Titans will stop anybody
Jets MIA 2 * Jets Jets will stop Miami run, Sanchez bounceback

My best bets (which I didn’t bother with last week, thank Jupiter) are the Vikings, Bengals, Cards and Jets. I’m going to pretend my best bets are one of those betting slips and I’ve got to pick all four to win.

“So what”? you ask. Let’s look closer at these contests.

Okay, the Vikings. They just rolled over the Packers. It was very sad indeed, especially if you happen to hate Favre. Green Bay did stop the run pretty well and Peterson didn’t do much. But maybe that wasn’t the way to go with defense as things turned out. And the Rams just were annihilated vs. the Niners last week. The Niners didn’t really even have much of an offense. The Vikings apparently do. It would take an enormous Viking flop for them not to just win but cover at just ten points.

I’ve liked Cincinnati all year. Cleveland was playing way above their heads last week, I was really impressed. But the Bengals didn’t fold. They hung on. How much better will Flacco and the Colts be than were Derek Anderson and the Browns in the Battle of Ohio? C’mon man, it was the Battle of friggin’ Ohio.

Kurt Warner with a week off along with his Arizona team should wipe up the Texans. They had a week to work on their running game and get receivers well. They did go to the Super Bowl last year. The Texans had horrible defensive performances for three weeks before holding the Raiders down last week. That’s Al Davis’s Raiders, folks. The Cards will romp.

Aah, and then there’s the Jets at Miami and a spread of two. I think the Jets are better than that. I think they can stop the run, they won’t be fooled by a wildcat, and they’re coming off a week of stopping New Orleans, one of the best offensive teams in the league. (I would have said THE best two weeks ago). Then there’s a relatively new quarterback in Miami. Another Chad named Henne. He didn’t do badly last week but it’s a new week, isn’t it.?

Reflections in a Lost Season

It’s another day for day-games, the travel day for the Yanks, Orioles, Cubs and Phillies at the very least. Just my luck, the Phils are down 5-3 just now as Feliz drives in a couple. Looks like Zambrano, my fantasy opponent pitcher, is, as we used to say “blowing up”.

I can’t watch the Yankees-Orioles, it’s too uneven a match. The O’s still haven’t scored and it doesn’t look as if they’re going to. Burnett is just wacking them down and he doesn’t look troubled by the prospect of continuing. My fantasy opponent, though, is playing Roberts so maybe I’ll just root against him.

What is with this necklace on Burnett. I preferred the days when men didn’t wear jewelry. Me, I don’t even like the wedding band, and not because I have any bad intentions. If you want jewelry, wear a watch. You know, the thing you don’t need anymore because the time is staring you in the face from your cell phone, Blackberry, i-phone, and every electronic device in your house.

Hey-hey, the O’s finally scored two, and on a wild pitch too, but I’d rather blame Posada, one of my Yankee kicking-boys this season. The pitch wasn’t that bad, Jorge just missed it. Nice to make this thing competitive though for the 8th and 9th.

Over in Philadelphia, the Phils are getting thrashed by the Cubs. It’s 7-3 now and did you really expect much from Moyer? I think that if you want to pay a 43-year old guy to take the mound every 5th day or so, you deserve what you get.

For many baseball fans, though, the actual playing of the game has become secondary, even the watching of the actual game. But I have to admit, some of the peripheral action is pretty interesting…who’ll get Halladay (nobody), who’ll get Holliday (nobody), and who’s a buyer, who’s a seller, yada yada.

My beloved Metsies, alas, seem to be racing towards the seller side of things. Give them an opportunity to lose and most times they’ll take it. But one constant in the games they lose in awful fashion is the absence of pitching. In the games that are competitive, about every other game, they get good pitching. Let’s check the game log….

In the last 10 games, going back to the last game at LA, they lost two, then Santana pitched a beautiful game against Cincinnati and the Mets won 4-0. Then they won again with Pelfrey allowing only 3 runs over 7 innings. They won that one 9-7, so the relief pitching was horrible, but as the Mets decided to hit that day, it didn’t matter.

Then against the Braves, things started to unravel. They lost a tough 5-3 decision after Perez had turned in a good performance for him, and the Mets relievers couldn’t hold those pesky Braves off, giving up two runs in the last three innings. Pelfrey was awful the next day and the Mets got killed 11-0.

Then it was Santana’s turn. The Mets won 5-1. Getting my drift here? Then it was Nieve’s turn and he immediately got hurt so he could watch Tim Redding get blasted. The Mets lost and it wasn’t very close. But, behind a very creditable performance from Livan Hernandez in the Washington opener, the Mets won. Then Ollie the crazy man Perez turned in a clunker so the Mets lost again.

As bad as all this sounds, the Mets finished that ten-game stretch 4-6. Two wins from Santana, and one each from Pelfrey and Hernandez. Perez really wasn’t that bad, giving up 7 runs in 12 innings in his two starts. The relief pitching has been dreadful except for the rock, K-Rod.

My contention had been that the Mets could still contend if they got their big guns back soon. That was based on the schedule too, which didn’t seem daunting, but the Braves were one team the Mets should have split with, and they only took one of four. They have to do better than that. They did take 2 of 3 from the Reds though, and they’ve split with Washington so far. This last game against the Nats will show me a lot about the Mets, and whether they should be buyers or sellers thereafter.

The Mets will have Pelfrey going on his fifth day. Stammen is the Nats pitcher and he’s nothing to write home about. And I’d think, as Pelfrey is the team’s union representative, that the Mets will try hard to get him the win. The Mets have to win this game, if, for nothing else, my stick-to-it-iveness.

If they can’t beat Washington with their number 2 starter, they’re in really terrible shape as a team. Then I’d say they should be sellers. But Beltran and Reyes are both coming off injuries, minimizing their current market value and who really wants them to go anyway? Beltran had been one of the “rocks” before getting hurt and Reyes is Reyes after all, which is to say, alternately good and bad. Make that very good and bad, quite a distinction actually.

Until Beltran and Reyes get well, there’s really no point in dealing. That goes for Delgado too. But the needs are very clear in the long run, at least a reliever or two and a legitimate starter.

Of their two big relief acquisitions Green has been a real bust, for the most part, and Putz is an unknown after shoulder surgery. That’s a lot of money tied up in two relievers who haven’t been able to perform up to expectations. The Mets must hope that those two come back strong, thus mitigating their relief situation.

The more it’s analyzed, the more depressing it gets. The only logical thing to do is stay pat for now and hope that a Niese or somebody else from the minors will fill that 5th starter position. The relief will just have to get better with experience.

Next year is the best time to deal.