Mets Win !! A March Tale

I have to admit I’m psyched. The greatest American game is a month away. And this could be a magic year for the Mets. I’m starting to feel it.

Imagine…Imagine a team with broke owners and no bigtime pitchers going on to win 90 games to eke out a playoff spot. Imagine a team that’s close at the All-Star break being lifted by the return of its star pitcher from injury.

Imagine a team whose second-year guys play like seasoned veterans. Imagine a team whose bargain- basement pitching acquisitions go on to win 30 games. Imagine a team whose hard-luck pitchers of the year before suddenly start to win the games they lost the previous year.

Imagine a healthy Jose Reyes in his contract year stealing 60 bases and scoring 130 runs. Imagine a Carlos Beltran limping along to get big hit after big hit in key spots down the stretch. Imagine a Jason Bay totally turning around his miserable performance of his first year in New York.

Yeah, I know. That’s a lot of imagining. But why not us? Maybe the bad luck has gone the way of Omar and Jerry. Maybe the Mets will be as lucky as their owners are not. Maybe this season will be the lucky one, the rabbit’s foot year.

Ya gotta believe. Tug McGraw had it right.

I was in the stands for Games 2 and 5 of the 1969 World Series. The Mets beat the Orioles in five games. But that team wasn’t expected to win. Their lineup was pretty suspect. Their pitchers were young, even if they had names like Seaver and Koosman and Gentry et al.

That ’86 team was expected to win but even they had to get lucky to even make it to the Series, getting by a Houston team in startling fashion. They won it all only after an easy ground ball got by a first baseman who had manned his position very adequately until that very moment. His name is legend, of course, and Bill Buckner will always be remembered in baseball lore because of it.

Yeah, I know….what about the Phillies? Well, what about them? Pitching, pitching and more pitching is what they have. But I tell you to ask any fantasy player about the reliability of pitching, especially those coming off a big year, a year in which those arms gobbled up a lot of innings.

Let’s take a closer look. Halladay will be 34 in May. In his last five years, he’s thrown way over 200 innings each year, and last year he threw an incredible 250 innings. It’s a similar story for Cliff Lee whose innings pitched for the last three years have been at around 220. He’ll be 33 in August. Roy Oswalt will be 34 in August. He’s been a horse too over the years but ask any horseman about the dependability of horses.

Cole Hamels is their number 4 pitcher and he’s younger than the big three at 27 but also logged over 200 innings last year. But, for anyone with any memory of 2009, fragility thy name is Hamels. Surely he could be good this year, but then again so could Mike Pelfrey.

Their number 5 Blanton isn’t in the same class as the others but is still a pretty fair arm, but his ERA last year was 4.82. Kyle Kendrick is listed in the Phils depth chart as a number 6 starter who sported a 4.73 ERA in 2010, not too shabby but not too far removed from average either.

An injury to any one of the big three (and to put Oswalt in the same class as Lee and Halladay is sort of specious to begin with) puts the Phillies well within striking distance. And, even discounting the possibility of injury, what about a good guy just having a bad year? It happens all the time. Ask Jason Bay.

And what about just having bad luck on the mound? Ask Johan Santana about that. Santana had more no-decisions and losses last year than just about any hurler in the league, never mind one who sported an ERA under 3.00.

An injury, some bad luck, a loss of form (ask A.J. Burnett about that), or some bad luck brings the Phils right back to the pack. And it’s a pretty good pack of pitchers in New York. Pelfrey’s ERA was 3.66 and he went 15-9 despite one truly bad month. Niese was at 4.20, Dickey was at 2.84 and had almost as bad luck as Santana when it came down to runs scored for him.

The probable number 4 pitcher will be Chris Young, still a relative youngster in terms of innings pitched but a solid veteran nevertheless with a career ERA of 3.66. Dillon Gee is an unknown quantity at Number 5 but did manage to sport a 2.18 ERA in limited action last year. Pat Misch is a possible number 6 and managed a 3.82 ERA in limited action as a starter and reliever.

The numbers aren’t all that bad. If the pitching holds up, as it did all last year, the Mets could be formidable this year. They’ll almost undoubtedly score a lot more runs. With Beltran returning and Reyes playing more games, with Wright just being himself and Bay returning to form, the Mets have at least four very dangerous guys in the lineup.

And that’s not even counting centerfielder Pagan, Ike Davis and Josh Thole, the first baseman and catcher respectively, who figure to improve off some pretty fair results last year.

Jose Reyes could have a monster year. He lights up at the mere mention of his upcoming free agency. Wright could too after bouncing back last year from his disastrous 2009. With Beltran back, opponents will have to pitch to David.

The team with no money and no pitching but with a solid lineup, good team speed and a sound defense could just go a long way. Ask Tug McGraw.

A Question of Balance

Global warming, a giant oil slick and nobody seems to care while we pick on the banks for a while. Meanwhile, the seas go to hell. But set against all that is the Mets winning 7 in a row, and John Maine striking out nine Dodgers while going into the seventh inning. The Mets are in first place after stinking it up for the first dozen games.

The combined runs total for and against during the win stretch is 35-13. Averaged over 7 games, the Mets won each game by a score of 5-2. Not too shabby.

But it’s all very curious. Their luck went from horrible to undeniably terrific, or indescribably delicious. The Cubs, Braves and Dodgers looked awful. Or was that just the Mets making those teams look so bad?

All I know is that, all things considered, things have turned out remarkably well. The promotion of Ike Davis, batting Reyes third, keeping crazy Ollie and Maine in the rotation, the pickup of Jason Bay and Barajas, and the pickup of Jeff Francoeur before that, all those things have worked out. And that’s not to mention the relievers.

You may have read here that, from spring training on, the relievers looked much better than Manuel was making them out to be. Down in Florida, I thought they all looked pretty good. Yeah, it was the spring, but I was still very hopeful. If anything, I was very concerned at that time about the starters.

But the targets of my biggest concern, Maine especially but Oliver Perez too, have managed to just hang in, like that poster with the little kitten hangin’ on for dear life. And Jonathon Niese, for whom I had been optimistic, has been even better than I’d expected, as has Mike Pelfrey. Santana is still Santana, if perhaps just a kinder, gentler Santana.

I had been concerned about the lineup too, of course, what with the likes of Mike Jacobs batting cleanup. I didn’t have much hope for Gary Matthews (and still don’t) and Rod Barajas. It was a lineup even I could pitch around…arguably. But the call-up of Ike Davis meant we wouldn’t be seeing Mike Jacobs around any longer. It meant, too, we’d see less of Fernando Tatis. Both these players seemed to suck energy from the lineup, and for that matter, from the entire team.

It’s amazing what a little tweaking can do. Ike Davis infused the team with as much energy as had formerly been drained by Jacobs and Tatis. Reyes looks as if he enjoys playing in the 3-hole. Bay looks as if he likes batting just behind him. One could say exactly the same for Wright following Bay and Davis following Wright. Francoeur may be a little farther down than I or he would like but he’s not a complainer. He’s been as instrumental as anyone in their team success, even when he hasn’t been hitting. As for Barajas, he either hits it into the seats or flies out, it seems, but at least he’s doing it from the 8-hole.

But it’s mostly been about pitching, and who’s to say Barajas and Blanco, who spells Barajas, haven’t been keys to the pitching success. I don’t see many shake-offs and, more importantly, I don’t see many stupid calls. Opposing runners respect both catchers’ arms too, as Barajas reminded me just yesterday by throwing behind the runner at first to keep him closer to the bag.

As bad as things looked a couple of weeks ago, that’s as good as things seem now. Even Citi Field, which seemed to just add to Mets woes then, now seems to embrace those frequent line drives hit by Bay, Wright and Francoeur. And, as exciting as those dingers can be, there’s nothing quite like a triple in the gap, especially with runners on, and Citi Field has nothing but gaps, and huge ones too.

Going to Philly just at this time, though, wouldn’t be my choice. Homers come easy in Philly, and the Phils have just the guys to hit them. Howard, Utley, Werth, Rollins, Ibanez, on and on, the Phils just scare the hell out of me. All those fly balls a pitcher such as Maine induces at Citi Field become homers in that bandbox that is Citizens Bank Park.

But it’ll be Niese against Kyle Kendrick in the opener Friday night, which, all things considered, should be an edge for Niese, who, besides being a lefty, has good control and keeps the ball down in the zone. Pelfrey goes next against Halladay, and it would be impossible to wax poetic about that matchup. Santana will close it out though, and, against anyone, I like Santana.

Those pitching matchups make the opener of the Series a pivotal one as far as winning another series is concerned. I’m hoping Niese can go deep into the game too, as I’m a little concerned about the number of innings some of these relievers have pitched. Especially with Igarashi’s hamstring putting him out for the next couple of weeks, it seems as if Nieve, Feliciano and Takahachi could get more work than could be considered optimal.

Balance is now what the Mets exhibit now though, and balance is hard to beat in baseball over the long run. The Mets are getting output from the entire lineup, and both starters and relievers are pitching well. That combination will be hard to beat on any field, in any venue, and, theoretically, against any team, even the Phillies.

The only starter performing well for the Phils is Halladay. Hamels, Kendrick and Moyer have been decidedly mediocre. Former Met Nelson Figueroa, listed as their fifth starter, has a better ERA at this point than any of the other starters, excepting Halladay of course.

Their closer is Madsen while Lidge is out, making them thinner in relief overall. Rollins is out, Juan Castro is in. All in all, the Mets on paper are better than this Phillies team, at least right now.

Reflections in a Lost Season

It’s another day for day-games, the travel day for the Yanks, Orioles, Cubs and Phillies at the very least. Just my luck, the Phils are down 5-3 just now as Feliz drives in a couple. Looks like Zambrano, my fantasy opponent pitcher, is, as we used to say “blowing up”.

I can’t watch the Yankees-Orioles, it’s too uneven a match. The O’s still haven’t scored and it doesn’t look as if they’re going to. Burnett is just wacking them down and he doesn’t look troubled by the prospect of continuing. My fantasy opponent, though, is playing Roberts so maybe I’ll just root against him.

What is with this necklace on Burnett. I preferred the days when men didn’t wear jewelry. Me, I don’t even like the wedding band, and not because I have any bad intentions. If you want jewelry, wear a watch. You know, the thing you don’t need anymore because the time is staring you in the face from your cell phone, Blackberry, i-phone, and every electronic device in your house.

Hey-hey, the O’s finally scored two, and on a wild pitch too, but I’d rather blame Posada, one of my Yankee kicking-boys this season. The pitch wasn’t that bad, Jorge just missed it. Nice to make this thing competitive though for the 8th and 9th.

Over in Philadelphia, the Phils are getting thrashed by the Cubs. It’s 7-3 now and did you really expect much from Moyer? I think that if you want to pay a 43-year old guy to take the mound every 5th day or so, you deserve what you get.

For many baseball fans, though, the actual playing of the game has become secondary, even the watching of the actual game. But I have to admit, some of the peripheral action is pretty interesting…who’ll get Halladay (nobody), who’ll get Holliday (nobody), and who’s a buyer, who’s a seller, yada yada.

My beloved Metsies, alas, seem to be racing towards the seller side of things. Give them an opportunity to lose and most times they’ll take it. But one constant in the games they lose in awful fashion is the absence of pitching. In the games that are competitive, about every other game, they get good pitching. Let’s check the game log….

In the last 10 games, going back to the last game at LA, they lost two, then Santana pitched a beautiful game against Cincinnati and the Mets won 4-0. Then they won again with Pelfrey allowing only 3 runs over 7 innings. They won that one 9-7, so the relief pitching was horrible, but as the Mets decided to hit that day, it didn’t matter.

Then against the Braves, things started to unravel. They lost a tough 5-3 decision after Perez had turned in a good performance for him, and the Mets relievers couldn’t hold those pesky Braves off, giving up two runs in the last three innings. Pelfrey was awful the next day and the Mets got killed 11-0.

Then it was Santana’s turn. The Mets won 5-1. Getting my drift here? Then it was Nieve’s turn and he immediately got hurt so he could watch Tim Redding get blasted. The Mets lost and it wasn’t very close. But, behind a very creditable performance from Livan Hernandez in the Washington opener, the Mets won. Then Ollie the crazy man Perez turned in a clunker so the Mets lost again.

As bad as all this sounds, the Mets finished that ten-game stretch 4-6. Two wins from Santana, and one each from Pelfrey and Hernandez. Perez really wasn’t that bad, giving up 7 runs in 12 innings in his two starts. The relief pitching has been dreadful except for the rock, K-Rod.

My contention had been that the Mets could still contend if they got their big guns back soon. That was based on the schedule too, which didn’t seem daunting, but the Braves were one team the Mets should have split with, and they only took one of four. They have to do better than that. They did take 2 of 3 from the Reds though, and they’ve split with Washington so far. This last game against the Nats will show me a lot about the Mets, and whether they should be buyers or sellers thereafter.

The Mets will have Pelfrey going on his fifth day. Stammen is the Nats pitcher and he’s nothing to write home about. And I’d think, as Pelfrey is the team’s union representative, that the Mets will try hard to get him the win. The Mets have to win this game, if, for nothing else, my stick-to-it-iveness.

If they can’t beat Washington with their number 2 starter, they’re in really terrible shape as a team. Then I’d say they should be sellers. But Beltran and Reyes are both coming off injuries, minimizing their current market value and who really wants them to go anyway? Beltran had been one of the “rocks” before getting hurt and Reyes is Reyes after all, which is to say, alternately good and bad. Make that very good and bad, quite a distinction actually.

Until Beltran and Reyes get well, there’s really no point in dealing. That goes for Delgado too. But the needs are very clear in the long run, at least a reliever or two and a legitimate starter.

Of their two big relief acquisitions Green has been a real bust, for the most part, and Putz is an unknown after shoulder surgery. That’s a lot of money tied up in two relievers who haven’t been able to perform up to expectations. The Mets must hope that those two come back strong, thus mitigating their relief situation.

The more it’s analyzed, the more depressing it gets. The only logical thing to do is stay pat for now and hope that a Niese or somebody else from the minors will fill that 5th starter position. The relief will just have to get better with experience.

Next year is the best time to deal.

A Break Is a Break....

A break is a break. There's really nothing else to say, right? I have absolutely nothing to say about the All-Star game. The NL lost again. That makes it again and again and again and on and on for way too many years. You'd think the NL would win at least once just by accident.

And then there's Halladay. Going somewhere, but not to the Mets. Do I care whether the Yanks or Phils or Red Sox or even Dodgers gets him. Most assuredly, I do not. Pedro Martinez is back with the Phils though and immediately went on the DL. That makes me so happy I could just jump up and down and kick my heels. Yuk-yuk-yuk.

Oh yeah, there's the British Open, and Tiger at the British Open. Ho-hum. And a 15-year old in World Team Tennis beat Serena. Woo-hoo.

The Jets are opening up their waiting list. Now all those thousands of fans will get the happy opportunity to pay 10 to 20 thousand dollars for a seat. But I ask you, is that worth writing about? I say no.

A break really is a break.