Mets Win !! A March Tale

I have to admit I’m psyched. The greatest American game is a month away. And this could be a magic year for the Mets. I’m starting to feel it.

Imagine…Imagine a team with broke owners and no bigtime pitchers going on to win 90 games to eke out a playoff spot. Imagine a team that’s close at the All-Star break being lifted by the return of its star pitcher from injury.

Imagine a team whose second-year guys play like seasoned veterans. Imagine a team whose bargain- basement pitching acquisitions go on to win 30 games. Imagine a team whose hard-luck pitchers of the year before suddenly start to win the games they lost the previous year.

Imagine a healthy Jose Reyes in his contract year stealing 60 bases and scoring 130 runs. Imagine a Carlos Beltran limping along to get big hit after big hit in key spots down the stretch. Imagine a Jason Bay totally turning around his miserable performance of his first year in New York.

Yeah, I know. That’s a lot of imagining. But why not us? Maybe the bad luck has gone the way of Omar and Jerry. Maybe the Mets will be as lucky as their owners are not. Maybe this season will be the lucky one, the rabbit’s foot year.

Ya gotta believe. Tug McGraw had it right.

I was in the stands for Games 2 and 5 of the 1969 World Series. The Mets beat the Orioles in five games. But that team wasn’t expected to win. Their lineup was pretty suspect. Their pitchers were young, even if they had names like Seaver and Koosman and Gentry et al.

That ’86 team was expected to win but even they had to get lucky to even make it to the Series, getting by a Houston team in startling fashion. They won it all only after an easy ground ball got by a first baseman who had manned his position very adequately until that very moment. His name is legend, of course, and Bill Buckner will always be remembered in baseball lore because of it.

Yeah, I know….what about the Phillies? Well, what about them? Pitching, pitching and more pitching is what they have. But I tell you to ask any fantasy player about the reliability of pitching, especially those coming off a big year, a year in which those arms gobbled up a lot of innings.

Let’s take a closer look. Halladay will be 34 in May. In his last five years, he’s thrown way over 200 innings each year, and last year he threw an incredible 250 innings. It’s a similar story for Cliff Lee whose innings pitched for the last three years have been at around 220. He’ll be 33 in August. Roy Oswalt will be 34 in August. He’s been a horse too over the years but ask any horseman about the dependability of horses.

Cole Hamels is their number 4 pitcher and he’s younger than the big three at 27 but also logged over 200 innings last year. But, for anyone with any memory of 2009, fragility thy name is Hamels. Surely he could be good this year, but then again so could Mike Pelfrey.

Their number 5 Blanton isn’t in the same class as the others but is still a pretty fair arm, but his ERA last year was 4.82. Kyle Kendrick is listed in the Phils depth chart as a number 6 starter who sported a 4.73 ERA in 2010, not too shabby but not too far removed from average either.

An injury to any one of the big three (and to put Oswalt in the same class as Lee and Halladay is sort of specious to begin with) puts the Phillies well within striking distance. And, even discounting the possibility of injury, what about a good guy just having a bad year? It happens all the time. Ask Jason Bay.

And what about just having bad luck on the mound? Ask Johan Santana about that. Santana had more no-decisions and losses last year than just about any hurler in the league, never mind one who sported an ERA under 3.00.

An injury, some bad luck, a loss of form (ask A.J. Burnett about that), or some bad luck brings the Phils right back to the pack. And it’s a pretty good pack of pitchers in New York. Pelfrey’s ERA was 3.66 and he went 15-9 despite one truly bad month. Niese was at 4.20, Dickey was at 2.84 and had almost as bad luck as Santana when it came down to runs scored for him.

The probable number 4 pitcher will be Chris Young, still a relative youngster in terms of innings pitched but a solid veteran nevertheless with a career ERA of 3.66. Dillon Gee is an unknown quantity at Number 5 but did manage to sport a 2.18 ERA in limited action last year. Pat Misch is a possible number 6 and managed a 3.82 ERA in limited action as a starter and reliever.

The numbers aren’t all that bad. If the pitching holds up, as it did all last year, the Mets could be formidable this year. They’ll almost undoubtedly score a lot more runs. With Beltran returning and Reyes playing more games, with Wright just being himself and Bay returning to form, the Mets have at least four very dangerous guys in the lineup.

And that’s not even counting centerfielder Pagan, Ike Davis and Josh Thole, the first baseman and catcher respectively, who figure to improve off some pretty fair results last year.

Jose Reyes could have a monster year. He lights up at the mere mention of his upcoming free agency. Wright could too after bouncing back last year from his disastrous 2009. With Beltran back, opponents will have to pitch to David.

The team with no money and no pitching but with a solid lineup, good team speed and a sound defense could just go a long way. Ask Tug McGraw.

The Good and Bad of New York

The pitching just isn’t there. Although I’d like to keep kidding myself, the Mets can’t contend for anything with their pitching. Pelfrey isn’t consistent at all and he’s the number 2 on the staff. Perez is mostly bad. So there’s Santana and pray for rain.
When the minor leaguers they bring up do better than the regulars, you can really just mail it in.

Not that there aren’t some good things to say. I really like watching these guys, Francoeur, Reed, Pagan, Sullivan, Murphy, Niese, the future looks pretty bright but it’s the present that’s kind of shaky.

As far as the regulars coming back, it sounds like a bunch of doubletalk to me. Beltran probably just wants to get his at-bats up so his resume won’t have a big hole in it. As for Reyes and Delgado, at this point I’d rather watch Cora and Murphy. I just don’t believe these players are hurt as bad as they seem to think they are.

I couldn’t help but notice that, since Minaya’s unfortunate running at the mouth, some of the absentees have appeared in the dugout. Putz, Delgado, Reyes….it’s nice to see. Anyone would think that they give a damn.

When they do get a decent pitching performance, this team is fun to watch. Good fielding, good baserunning, good at-bats generally, but as I read somewhere today, they just can’t hit a sinkerball pitcher. Oh well.

Let me talk about some other things. The Mets are just too depressing. Thank God for Jerry Manuel. He makes things bearable.

There are some bright spots in New York sports. Take the Yankees…please. As much as I dislike them generally, Cashman at the very top of my list, you have to like the lion’s share of the players themselves.

Swisher climbing the walls, Teixeira lunging and coming up with ball, Jeter being Jeter, and Melky playing out of his mind. Hitting for the cycle the way he did yesterday was just amazing. To need a triple and then get it? Waddaya kiddin’ me? . Damon, Matsui, Gardner….in fact, I kinda like everybody whose name doesn’t end in a “rod”.

On the pitching side, CC’s always good for a smile or two and Burnett is a real pro, a tough guy you like to see out there. And Joba, how can you not like Joba? The fact that Pettite and Mitre haven’t really done anything just adds a bit to their humanity, if anything can.

And Hughes has been pretty awesome when not used too awfully much, which I think has been his problem lately. Mariano Rivera has been quite impressive, of course, and provides that close of things, even if he does have to provide four outs as he did yesterday. The rest of their relief staff you can have.

Football’s starting to come to the forefront of everyone’s mind and the Jets especially look to be a very exciting team, if not the best team in New York overall. Their new head coach, the very ample Ryan, to put it nicely, has them all chomping at the bit. Compared to Mangini’s death camp, it’s a very nice change of pace.

They’ll have defense up the ying-yang. Too bad the offense looks as if it will probably leave a bit to be desired. Whichever quarterback finally wins the starting nod, he’ll be relatively new at the job and it’s really hard to like a new NFL quarterback too much. But thank God Favre’s doing his press conferences somewhere else.

Why they continue to give their best players such a hard time at the contract table is beyond me though. Give Leon Washington his due, Tannenbaum, and while you’re at it, give him some money too. I can’t believe they punish their best “team” players the way they do, using their team feeling as leverage at the contract table, a pretty despicable negotiating strategy if you ask me. And stupid in the long run.

The Giants are the real pros in town. This should be a great year if injuries don’t cripple them. Of course, they have to get over the loss of Plax and Toomer, something that won’t be too easily done. But drafting Hakeem Nicks, and then signing him relatively quickly, was a step in the right direction.

On defense, the significance of getting Umenyiora back can’t be overplayed really. The pass rush and the defense against the run should be alive and well. They’ll have Eli back and Jacobs, of course, and a great offensive line. They’ll also have good backups at just about every position.

The indictment of Plaxico today won’t help matters but it was nice to see the grand jury go easy on Antonio Pierce. It’ll be life as usual for the G-Men from here on in. Despite Antonio’s age and lack of speed, he’s been a great leader for the Giants defense and a great spokesman too.

While I’m saddened by Burress’s situation, I guess he couldn’t expect much better treatment and it appears he’ll be out of football for quite some time. But a quick look back at his Super Bowl performance against the undefeated Patriots less than two years ago should make any Giants fan feel a bit in the dumps.

What a waste! You can blame Plax, I’ll hate that sorry excuse for a mayor, Bloomberg, using his power as Mayor to undermine the legal system. New York should rid themselves of him.

He’d be a better candidate for New Jersey politics as he’s no better than the 22 or so politicians hopefully jail-bound this year. And no less heavy-handed than Hoboken’s sorry excuse for a mayor, the guy who promised to grind up anybody not in his constituency.

Gee, I guess I really am a Giants fan.

They're All in Line for 2009

The big game is over. We can stop wondering what all those speedy world-beating Cardinals were doing in the eighteen seconds it took Harrison to traverse those hundred yards to pay dirt and no longer ponder the prevent defense that could’ve killed the Steelers in the end. We can just get out in the snow and play.

Omar Minaya sure got on with his life, and that of the Mets at the same time, by finally signing good old Ollie. That would be Oliver Perez, of course, the schizoid lefthander from, as John Madden put it while describing an Oakland lineman whose head was steaming in the cold, the University of Mars.

That moniker would certainly fit Mr. Perez. Maybe the kindest thing you could say about him is that he’s not boring. Masterful one game and horrible the next, Perez is usually at his best against the best and just as bad against the worst. He also seems to lose interest after five innings, a dangerous habit especially for a team that had such an, um…….. exciting bullpen.

But he’s a year older now and, while experience certainly doesn’t guarantee anything, that should do nothing but good for mad Ollie. It’s to be hoped that the 36 million won’t go to his head, and since nothing else seems to penetrate that skull of his, I doubt that money has one chance in hell.

So ends, I would imagine, the free agent acquisitions for the Mets this season. Yeah, Pedro is still out there as is “El Comedulce”, sweet Bobby Abreu. And who knows? If they’re allowed to keep the Citi money, maybe they’ll even swing a trade for Xavier Nady, who the Yanks may have soured on, incredible as that seems to me. Of course, if there’s a bad move to be made, Cashman will find it.

Nobody could say Minaya hasn’t been on point though. He needed relievers, he got relievers; he needed a couple of starters, he got some nice ones. There have been no flights of fancy, no 43 year old left fielders, no ancient pinch-hitters or second basemen, just good solid value so far, or so it would seem anyway.

If you’re into probability though, signing guys in their twenties beats signing a bunch of old men any day of the week. As much as I like Pedro, I hope he looks great in the World Baseball Classic and signs with Boston, or even the Dodgers where he can be reunited with Manny.

There are those who will say he should have gone after Ramirez, or he should have picked up Abreu, but I really think you need to reward your current people for jobs well done. That young platoon in left field did quite nicely in left field last year, and who says they can’t get even better?

A team needs life, and that life often comes from those unproven guys in the lineup, those hustlers, those young guns trying to prove themselves. It’s what the Yankees have lacked year after year, for the most part, unless you count the young pitchers they threw into the fire last year.

You may think that last crack is a contradiction. Why is it good to give a left fielder a chance but not a pitcher? It has to do with expectations of success, I think. I’d rather go with Murphy, who showed promise for much of last season, at a less critical position, left field, than go with a rookie at a critical position, starting pitcher, for TWO rookies who really hadn’t shown much at the major league level.

Starting two rookies at starting pitcher alarms the whole team. Starting a deserving 2nd year guy in left field is a reason for optimism. It shows that the team will reward hard work and solid play. Decidedly not what the Mets had shown when they ditched Nady for a potential relief pitcher who never panned out. (That was another flight of fancy).

The Mets depth chart currently shows Murphy and Tatis in left field. It shows Nick Evans at third base. Maybe they’re expecting Wright to get tired after his World Baseball Classic. He certainly seemed to be tired in some very big spots last year.

Those are the kinds of things I’d worry about as a Mets fan, drop-offs in performance from guys who have done it in the past. I’d like to see some depth at first base, and Nick Evans is not my idea of depth at third. Delgado, Reyes, Beltran and Wright have been real workhorses for the Mets for a long time. Probability says it can’t continue. Somebody’s got to break down.

I hate to even suggest the possibility of losing any of those core guys. Who plays center like Beltran? Who can come close to providing the all-around game you usually get from Reyes or Wright? Not anybody, of course, but really, there are currently only six infielders shown on the roster, one of whom is Alex Cora at shortstop, who’s a little long in the tooth himself.

Well, it’s still early. Maybe we’ll see some new blood manning those infield positions, especially when they get into a bind. Argenis Reyes filled in nicely at second base last year. And, despite Castillo’s horrible last year, there is reason to believe he’ll recover the form he once had.

Marlon Anderson did nothing last year. That should change too, at least part of the time, as he’s an old-timer too, but he’s the Mets’ current backup for Delgado at first base. There are three catchers, Brian Schneider, Ramon Castro and Robinson Cancel, a nice threesome. Schneider is solid, Castro is a clutch hitter and seems to be the designated catcher for Santana. Cancel delivered some big hits too.

All in all, though, the Mets are all in line for 2009. The core is solid, the pitching is very good all around, but there is no depth. Depth can be had fairly easily. Omar?

A Call to Arms

Just about 24 hours to the trade deadline now, and although things seem set, at least as far as any big moves in Major League Baseball, there still could be a few surprises. The Yankees are still interested in pitchers, and sorry Seattle seems to have one extra. The Mets could use some arms in the pen but there doesn't seem to be much available.

At least one thing remains abundantly clear, though, as we approach the deadline. You just can't have too much pitching. Witness the Angels John Lackey no-hitting the Red Sox for 8 1/3, the Cubs Carlos Zambrano out-dueling Ben Sheets of Milwaukee and even our Oliver Perez shutting down the Marlins for most of the evening down in Miami.

The Cubs sure seem loaded with arms but they added still another one in Jeff Samardzija, last seen catching passes all over the field for the Notre Dame Fighting Irish. The tall, rangy Samardzija is just 23 years old but has already picked up a save for the Cubs , who are presently locked up in a death match with the Milwaukee Brewers.

World Series Champions usually wind up having a little bit of everything, or a lot of one thing, and that thing is usually pitching. At this point, it seems that the Mets and Cubs have it on the Senior Circuit and the Angels have it in the American League. Starters and relievers, they have it all.

Aaron Heilman of the Mets seemed to confirm that last night when he helped nail down the win against the Marlins by pitching two crucial shutout innings after walking the first two batters he faced in the 7th inning. And Billy Wagner had another impressive outing in the 9th.

This next week should be very revealing as to whether the Mets can overcome a couple of injuries to their staff. John Maine's MRI revealed a strained shoulder, but he may be good to go for Sunday while their old pro Pedro Martinez, who at last call was battling through an arm problem that put undue pressure on his hip. Yet Pedro will probably try again soon, and what a nice surprise it would be if he can finish up the season.

If Pedro can produce over the remainder of 2008, he would be one of the only gambles the Mets have taken on aging players that will have worked out. Luis Castillo certainly didn't help but he at least played some games. The same can't be said for Moises Alou or El Duque. And Marlon Anderson has been a disaster, depending upon one's expectations, I guess.

If Maine and Pedro can keep on keepin’ on, the Mets will be looking good. It’d be Santana, Perez, Pedro, Maine and Pelfrey to finish out the season, a combination that I could certainly live with. The Phillies, Marlins and the rest of the NL may not.

No teams in the National League can compete with that starting rotation, although the Cubs come pretty close. In addition to Zambrano and Rich Harden, they can throw three other quite capable guys at you in Ryan Dempster, Ted Lilly and Jason Marquis. The Brewers come close with Sheets, Sabathia, Bush, Parra and Suppan but their relievers have been suspect.

Can anybody stay with the Angels though? In addition to Lackey, they can throw another Santana at you, a fellow named Ervin. And then there’s Jon Garland and another Weaver named Jered. Their fifth guy is nobody to sneeze at either, in the person of Joe Saunders, who is an unbelievable 13-5 with an ERA just a shade above three. Wow!

The Anaheim bunch also have the pen with Francisco Rodriguez and Scott Shields, although the rest of the staff isn’t that strong, offering some hope to contenders. If the starter they throw at you can’t go 7 innings, there will be some scoring chances until you reach the eighth. Good luck!

Of course, Red Sox fans may be wondering what’s wrong with Beckett, Dice K, Lester, Wakefield and Bucholz. That’s an easy one, Wakefield and Bucholz. And, besides Papelbon and Okajima in the pen, there aren’t any other fellows there you can go to with confidence. And, unlike the Angels, who have the better starting five, they will have to visit the bullpen more often.

Another wildcard might be the Sox of that other color, the Chicago White Sox, who can throw Buehrle, Vasquez, Danks and Floyd at you. But their fifth starter is weak, and so is their bullpen. Aside from big Bobby Jenks, the closer, there’s really nobody else.

The perennial playoff-dwellers, the Yankees, alas, are coming up short. If the Mariners can outlast them in their bid for Jarod Washburn, they’ll be hurting with Mussina as their ace, followed by Pettite and Chamberlain, but Rasner and Ponson certainly don’t inspire much confidence.

If they can pick up Washburn though, their chances look much rosier, as they do seem to have a pretty good pen, not just Mariano but an improving Farnsworth and the hot newcomer Edwar Ramirez. Veras isn’t too shabby either.

Of course, pitching isn’t 100% of the game. There’re some other required pieces as well. But the Angels seem to have shored up their lineup by acquiring the brute first baseman, Mark Teixeira, from the Braves. And, even if he winds up just being a loaner, he’ll certainly give them confidence down the stretch this season.

So, although all you might see on ESPN this week is news and more news concerning an even more famous arm, that right arm of Bret Favre, and where it will wind up this year, the real news for me will concern pitching arms, as those more closely relate to success than do the arms of quarterbacks, who, after all, need strong performances by about 44 other big and fast bodies.

So pay close attention. Watch those arms and where they’re going. That movement will probably decide this year’s Series winners.