It'll Be Steelers Again

Okay, after studying this thing to death for 2 or 3 days, I can confidently say the Steelers should win this 45th Super Duper Bowl. Although they are still 2 ½ point underdogs in this contest, and most observers have picked the Packers to win, football games are dictated by matchups, and this particular matchup favors the team from Pittsburgh.

Most prognosticators are infatuated with Aaron Rodgers and his remarkable performances and numbers, much as they were quite taken by Tom Brady earlier in the season. Both those QB’s, and both those teams, can just eat an opponent up, and do more often than not.

When they cannot eat up their opponents though, when the opponent has a sound defensive plan against the pass, as the Bears did in their three contests against the Packers and as the Jets did in their playoffs victory, those QB’s and those teams have looked very vulnerable.

The Steelers will be able to run the ball, conspicuously to the left side, or the Packers right side, away from both AJ Hawk and Clay Matthews. The Steelers offensive line will be good enough in the running game to allow Ben Roethlisberger to pass just enough to keep the Pack defense honest. The Steelers will run left, run left, and run left some more.

Aaron Rodgers will get his passing yards to all those great receivers. The Pack will matriculate the ball down the field and, more often than not, fail to score the touchdown. Their running game will not go. Nobody runs on this Steelers defensive unit, especially not the Packers.

The Steelers offense can be compared closely with the offense of the Atlanta Falcons in that they have a big running back, a smart quarterback and a couple of good receivers. The Falcons played the Packers twice. In the first contest, a very meaningful one for both teams, Michael Turner ran successfully all day long, very conspicuously, to the Packers right side. The Falcons prevailed 20-17 in that one on a very late field goal.

In the second contest, the even more important playoff game, the Packers romped. In that contest, the Falcons, after taking a lead early, couldn’t stop Aaron Rodgers and the Pack passing game at all. To make matters much worse, Falcons QB Matt Ryan was intercepted for another TD, and the rout was on. The Falcons abandoned their running game. They had to.

The Steelers won’t have to abandon the running game. The Steelers pass defense is much better than that of the Falcons. They may be stopped early in the game but they’ll keep running. They may fall behind (in fact, it’s likely that they will fall behind), but they won’t fall behind by enough to force them to abandon their game plan. Very likely, they’ll give up two or three field goals, and one, possibly even two touchdowns, but the total Pack scoring will be relatively low, from 20 to 23 points.

The MVP of this game will very likely be Rashard Mendenhall. If the Steelers have success early in the game, as they did against the Jets, the game could conceivably get totally out of hand. If the Packers fall behind and get a little antsy, even an Aaron Rodgers could get picked a couple of times. And if they don’t get antsy, they still won’t have much success.

It’s likely though that the Pack will have at least some success early. The Steelers will likely be playing catch-up, something they’re well equipped to do. They’ll grind it out and keep their composure. The mistakes will be few and far between. They’ll own the second half and especially the fourth quarter. They can play conservatively and win this game. The Packers cannot.

The Packers pass the ball. That’s what they do. But how did they fare against the Bears, a team that plays defense much as do the Steelers? Not too shabby really, they lost the first one, and then won the last two. But they only scored ten points in their first win and 21 in the playoff victory, in which Cutler, the Bears QB, had to leave the game.

The Steelers are not the Bears. Their styles of defense can be compared but the players really can’t be. The Steelers play that defense better. The Steelers are better offensively than the Bears too. They can beat you with the run and they can beat you with the pass. And if you do manage to score, it’ll be an aberration.

The Packers are a very good team. There can be no question about that. They actually tied the Steelers in scoring defense this year. But they have no running game. The Steelers do. That will make the difference, as it does so often in playoff games, and especially in Steelers playoff games.

If the Packers have any advantage, it is that they have proven tough enough to win three playoff games on the road, at Philadelphia, at Atlanta and at Chicago. The road means nothing to them, and they could consider Super Bowl site Dallas as just another playoffs road game. The Steelers have been a good road team as well though, having lost only one road game all year. But their most recent wins were at home.

There are always a million intangibles of course. Turnovers should be even. Statistically, the two teams are very close. The Packers are probably healthier, especially with the question surrounding the Steelers first-string center Pouncey, but his replacement, Doug Legursky, has been tough, especially in the running game. Coaching should be a wash. Both teams have brilliant head coaches and coordinators, especially on the defensive side.

Another important intangible though is the effect that experience will have on this game. The Steelers have a huge edge in experience, and successful experience at that. The Packers have a big-time heritage for sure but their recent legacy has been pretty slim.

It’ll be 24-20 or so in favor of the Steelers.