This is the longest week in the sports calendar. It must be. I even turned on a minute or so of the Pro Bowl. There should be some form of punishment for that, if the game itself isn’t penalty enough. Unless you’re a madman or Super Bowl trivia expert, this is a week for that ski trip you always wanted.
Oh yeah, there’s basketball. Right. The Knicks traded their way out of contention and nobody wants to play for the Nets. Seton Hall was exciting for a brief while but those heady days appear to be over. The Australian Open was great, I must say, especially the Men’s Final between Djokovic and Nadal but that’s all over.
Oh yeah, there’s baseball hot stove stuff. Every other team in the world is doing something interesting but if you’re a Mets fan, you have to be happy with less. For Mets fans, this is the beginning of the beginning if you’re an optimist. It’ll be a year of hoping a team plays over its head….constantly.
I’m not into hockey but this week I actually wish I was. For a guy who’s never really skated, it’s tough to follow hockey. There is some Rangers buzz though and how often does that happen? Okay, I’m done, what else is there? Oh well, it’ll be a good week to hit the gym a lot. Geez, maybe I can even start following the Republican nominees around. That’s at least nasty.
I know this would probably be a good time to do a nice lengthy analysis of Giants-Pats but geez, it seems I’ve covered the Giants side of things enough already. I’ve maintained they’d need the best defense in the league to even get this far. That has proven true. But they also seem to have a little luck going for them lately, most notably against San Francisco.
I mean, really, how often is the return guy going to let the ball hit him in the knee? And how often is the same guy going to fumble? That’s what makes me nervous going into Indianapolis. It would seem that maybe the G-Men’s good luck is due to turn. I don’t want to put the horns on them but, really, will the Patriots give the ball up that easily?
I don’t think so. Plus, there’re all those characters you’ve heard about before. Yeah, yeah, Bellichick. Yeah, yeah, Brady. And now, yeah, yeah, Gronkowski. But maybe the big scary tight end will have no wheels for this game. That sure sounds like more good luck to me.
The question for me is whether or not the Giants can beat that Pats team without getting ridiculous breaks. It is possible, I think. But it’s also possible that Bellichick will come up with something weird. For this game, if I were him, I’d use the formula that won me a Super Bowl for the Giants against the Buffalo Bills back in 1991.
That day, Bellichick’s Giants defense decided to let the Bills QB Kelly complete short passes in front of them and then proceeded to knock the ever-loving hell out of the receiver. Before you knew it, the high-flying Bills were doing nothing and the Giants were just pounding the ball on the ground, keeping that Bills offense off the field. Before the Bills figured out that the G-Men were letting them run, it was almost too late.
I say “almost” because the Bills actually did finally run the ball into scoring position with a chance to win. But Scott Norwood was wide right with his field goal attempt. It was too late for the Bills only because Norwood missed. All of Bellichick’s scheming could have gone out the window. Luck showed its ugly side to the Bills that day.
But the circumstances between that game and this one are similar. The Giants have a running game for sure but the real threats are in the passing game and lots of yards after the catch. Why not sit back and blast the hell out of Nicks and Cruz and Manningham? Why wouldn’t the Pats force the G-Men to beat them on the ground?
On the other side of the ball, the Pats would try to run the ball as O.J. Anderson did that January day in 1991. That will really be the challenge for the Pats. But, even if they can just get a few yards now and then on the ground, it’ll enable Brady to dink and dunk them to death with Welker and Hernandez, their other tight end and jack-of-all-trades. A ground game will also tire out those animals on the Giants defensive line.
If the Pats can do all those things, pound the Giants receivers, run the ball successfully, and dink the Giants to death, they could easily win this game. Incredibly enough, the betting line currently says the Pats are favored by 3; the over-under at 54 ½. Vegas thinks it’ll be somewhere around 29-26 in the Pats favor.
No two teams know each other better than these Giants and Pats, having played once this season already, and both head coaches coached together under Bill Parcells. When there are no surprises, the team with the better talent will tend to win the game. You couldn’t convince me that the Pats have the better overall talent.
With a healthy Gronkowski, the Pats may be more talented. But a slowed-down Gronk makes a big difference. He’s been Brady’s favorite receiver. Even a big guy has trouble playing with pain. And a high ankle sprain presents a nice target for further injury. I’d expect some low tackles on Mr. Gronkowski.
This game is too hard to predict really, but, especially if both teams neutralize the perceived power on the other side, I’d think this will be a game of unlikely heroes, maybe a Patriots running back or a Giants tight end. I don’t think the “usual suspects” will have a chance.
Look to the little guys in this one. Definitely.
Showing posts with label Super Bowl. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Super Bowl. Show all posts
Monday, January 30, 2012
Thursday, February 3, 2011
It'll Be Steelers Again
Okay, after studying this thing to death for 2 or 3 days, I can confidently say the Steelers should win this 45th Super Duper Bowl. Although they are still 2 ½ point underdogs in this contest, and most observers have picked the Packers to win, football games are dictated by matchups, and this particular matchup favors the team from Pittsburgh.
Most prognosticators are infatuated with Aaron Rodgers and his remarkable performances and numbers, much as they were quite taken by Tom Brady earlier in the season. Both those QB’s, and both those teams, can just eat an opponent up, and do more often than not.
When they cannot eat up their opponents though, when the opponent has a sound defensive plan against the pass, as the Bears did in their three contests against the Packers and as the Jets did in their playoffs victory, those QB’s and those teams have looked very vulnerable.
The Steelers will be able to run the ball, conspicuously to the left side, or the Packers right side, away from both AJ Hawk and Clay Matthews. The Steelers offensive line will be good enough in the running game to allow Ben Roethlisberger to pass just enough to keep the Pack defense honest. The Steelers will run left, run left, and run left some more.
Aaron Rodgers will get his passing yards to all those great receivers. The Pack will matriculate the ball down the field and, more often than not, fail to score the touchdown. Their running game will not go. Nobody runs on this Steelers defensive unit, especially not the Packers.
The Steelers offense can be compared closely with the offense of the Atlanta Falcons in that they have a big running back, a smart quarterback and a couple of good receivers. The Falcons played the Packers twice. In the first contest, a very meaningful one for both teams, Michael Turner ran successfully all day long, very conspicuously, to the Packers right side. The Falcons prevailed 20-17 in that one on a very late field goal.
In the second contest, the even more important playoff game, the Packers romped. In that contest, the Falcons, after taking a lead early, couldn’t stop Aaron Rodgers and the Pack passing game at all. To make matters much worse, Falcons QB Matt Ryan was intercepted for another TD, and the rout was on. The Falcons abandoned their running game. They had to.
The Steelers won’t have to abandon the running game. The Steelers pass defense is much better than that of the Falcons. They may be stopped early in the game but they’ll keep running. They may fall behind (in fact, it’s likely that they will fall behind), but they won’t fall behind by enough to force them to abandon their game plan. Very likely, they’ll give up two or three field goals, and one, possibly even two touchdowns, but the total Pack scoring will be relatively low, from 20 to 23 points.
The MVP of this game will very likely be Rashard Mendenhall. If the Steelers have success early in the game, as they did against the Jets, the game could conceivably get totally out of hand. If the Packers fall behind and get a little antsy, even an Aaron Rodgers could get picked a couple of times. And if they don’t get antsy, they still won’t have much success.
It’s likely though that the Pack will have at least some success early. The Steelers will likely be playing catch-up, something they’re well equipped to do. They’ll grind it out and keep their composure. The mistakes will be few and far between. They’ll own the second half and especially the fourth quarter. They can play conservatively and win this game. The Packers cannot.
The Packers pass the ball. That’s what they do. But how did they fare against the Bears, a team that plays defense much as do the Steelers? Not too shabby really, they lost the first one, and then won the last two. But they only scored ten points in their first win and 21 in the playoff victory, in which Cutler, the Bears QB, had to leave the game.
The Steelers are not the Bears. Their styles of defense can be compared but the players really can’t be. The Steelers play that defense better. The Steelers are better offensively than the Bears too. They can beat you with the run and they can beat you with the pass. And if you do manage to score, it’ll be an aberration.
The Packers are a very good team. There can be no question about that. They actually tied the Steelers in scoring defense this year. But they have no running game. The Steelers do. That will make the difference, as it does so often in playoff games, and especially in Steelers playoff games.
If the Packers have any advantage, it is that they have proven tough enough to win three playoff games on the road, at Philadelphia, at Atlanta and at Chicago. The road means nothing to them, and they could consider Super Bowl site Dallas as just another playoffs road game. The Steelers have been a good road team as well though, having lost only one road game all year. But their most recent wins were at home.
There are always a million intangibles of course. Turnovers should be even. Statistically, the two teams are very close. The Packers are probably healthier, especially with the question surrounding the Steelers first-string center Pouncey, but his replacement, Doug Legursky, has been tough, especially in the running game. Coaching should be a wash. Both teams have brilliant head coaches and coordinators, especially on the defensive side.
Another important intangible though is the effect that experience will have on this game. The Steelers have a huge edge in experience, and successful experience at that. The Packers have a big-time heritage for sure but their recent legacy has been pretty slim.
It’ll be 24-20 or so in favor of the Steelers.
Most prognosticators are infatuated with Aaron Rodgers and his remarkable performances and numbers, much as they were quite taken by Tom Brady earlier in the season. Both those QB’s, and both those teams, can just eat an opponent up, and do more often than not.
When they cannot eat up their opponents though, when the opponent has a sound defensive plan against the pass, as the Bears did in their three contests against the Packers and as the Jets did in their playoffs victory, those QB’s and those teams have looked very vulnerable.
The Steelers will be able to run the ball, conspicuously to the left side, or the Packers right side, away from both AJ Hawk and Clay Matthews. The Steelers offensive line will be good enough in the running game to allow Ben Roethlisberger to pass just enough to keep the Pack defense honest. The Steelers will run left, run left, and run left some more.
Aaron Rodgers will get his passing yards to all those great receivers. The Pack will matriculate the ball down the field and, more often than not, fail to score the touchdown. Their running game will not go. Nobody runs on this Steelers defensive unit, especially not the Packers.
The Steelers offense can be compared closely with the offense of the Atlanta Falcons in that they have a big running back, a smart quarterback and a couple of good receivers. The Falcons played the Packers twice. In the first contest, a very meaningful one for both teams, Michael Turner ran successfully all day long, very conspicuously, to the Packers right side. The Falcons prevailed 20-17 in that one on a very late field goal.
In the second contest, the even more important playoff game, the Packers romped. In that contest, the Falcons, after taking a lead early, couldn’t stop Aaron Rodgers and the Pack passing game at all. To make matters much worse, Falcons QB Matt Ryan was intercepted for another TD, and the rout was on. The Falcons abandoned their running game. They had to.
The Steelers won’t have to abandon the running game. The Steelers pass defense is much better than that of the Falcons. They may be stopped early in the game but they’ll keep running. They may fall behind (in fact, it’s likely that they will fall behind), but they won’t fall behind by enough to force them to abandon their game plan. Very likely, they’ll give up two or three field goals, and one, possibly even two touchdowns, but the total Pack scoring will be relatively low, from 20 to 23 points.
The MVP of this game will very likely be Rashard Mendenhall. If the Steelers have success early in the game, as they did against the Jets, the game could conceivably get totally out of hand. If the Packers fall behind and get a little antsy, even an Aaron Rodgers could get picked a couple of times. And if they don’t get antsy, they still won’t have much success.
It’s likely though that the Pack will have at least some success early. The Steelers will likely be playing catch-up, something they’re well equipped to do. They’ll grind it out and keep their composure. The mistakes will be few and far between. They’ll own the second half and especially the fourth quarter. They can play conservatively and win this game. The Packers cannot.
The Packers pass the ball. That’s what they do. But how did they fare against the Bears, a team that plays defense much as do the Steelers? Not too shabby really, they lost the first one, and then won the last two. But they only scored ten points in their first win and 21 in the playoff victory, in which Cutler, the Bears QB, had to leave the game.
The Steelers are not the Bears. Their styles of defense can be compared but the players really can’t be. The Steelers play that defense better. The Steelers are better offensively than the Bears too. They can beat you with the run and they can beat you with the pass. And if you do manage to score, it’ll be an aberration.
The Packers are a very good team. There can be no question about that. They actually tied the Steelers in scoring defense this year. But they have no running game. The Steelers do. That will make the difference, as it does so often in playoff games, and especially in Steelers playoff games.
If the Packers have any advantage, it is that they have proven tough enough to win three playoff games on the road, at Philadelphia, at Atlanta and at Chicago. The road means nothing to them, and they could consider Super Bowl site Dallas as just another playoffs road game. The Steelers have been a good road team as well though, having lost only one road game all year. But their most recent wins were at home.
There are always a million intangibles of course. Turnovers should be even. Statistically, the two teams are very close. The Packers are probably healthier, especially with the question surrounding the Steelers first-string center Pouncey, but his replacement, Doug Legursky, has been tough, especially in the running game. Coaching should be a wash. Both teams have brilliant head coaches and coordinators, especially on the defensive side.
Another important intangible though is the effect that experience will have on this game. The Steelers have a huge edge in experience, and successful experience at that. The Packers have a big-time heritage for sure but their recent legacy has been pretty slim.
It’ll be 24-20 or so in favor of the Steelers.
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