On Fantasy and Arod

It’s a slow news week for just about everything in sports this Tuesday. Except for Pitt knocking off U Conn, there really wasn’t anything happening, that is, unless you’re really into Alex Rodriguez. Or the Sports Illustrated Swimsuit Edition. As Conan might have said, “It’s a good day to die”. Of course, he had a much more exciting context at the time.

It’s at times such as these when a young man’s thoughts turn to, well, what would I know about that? But I have been taking a look at this year’s fantasy baseball mock drafts, and I must admit there are some strange things shaping up there.

For example, Hanley Ramirez, the Marlins shortstop and Albert Pujols, the Cards perennially great first baseman, are ranked one and two in most mock drafts. While Pujols isn’t really such a surprise, you have to turn your head a little at Hanley’s ascension.

Not that his numbers are bad. Hanley batted .301 with 33 homers and 67 ribbies. Even better, he scored 125 runs and stole 35 bases. But Pujols batted .357 with 116 ribbies and 100 runs scored. Of course, Albert doesn’t steal bases unless the sky is falling, and in these 5 by 5 leagues (stats categories in hitting and batting), speed is an over-rated thing.

It’s also been reported that Hanley came to camp about 25 pounds heavier than last year, and it’s reported to be all muscle, developed through weight training and swimming. While he doesn’t expect to start the season at 225, he’ll probably play at about 210, a ten-pound jump over last year’s weight. Still, I’m wary as to how that muscle will translate to the game of baseball. After all, it never did much for Arod.

Speaking of Arod, and isn’t everybody, Arod is arguably in the top three fantasy picks again this year. Not that there’s any chance I’ll select him, but I know I’ll hate facing any team that does. Alex hit .302 with 35 homers and 103 ribbies in a down year for him. He also stole 18 bases and will be following newly-acquired Mark Teixeira in the batting order. It should be interesting to see how that will affect his ribbies as Teixeira may have already cleared the bases.

As a Mets fan, I always try to draft some Mets but not at the expense of competitive advantage. I’ll be very curious to see my draft position this year as I might be able to select Beltran, my favorite Met, if things work out just right.

Jose Reyes, by the way, was selected 4th in one mock draft while Wright was 5th. I would never select either that high, however, despite all the steals from Reyes and the five-category contributions from Wright. I’m still quite sure they both contributed big-time to the Mets demise last year. I do hold grudges.

Beltran, though, was selected in the second round with the fifth pick. He’s definitely on my list as is Johan Santana, who made it deep into the second round. I’ll be looking to add closer Francisco Rodriguez too, who lasted until the seventh round, and Delgado, who lasted until the ninth round.

If you’re curious, some other Mets went very late, which hopefully won’t be a bad omen. Crazy Ollie Perez and Mike Pelfrey were both selections in the 19th round and John Maine almost wasn’t picked at all, before someone took a chance on him in the 23rd round.

Ah, the importance of good fortune! Nobody appreciates luck more than this fantasy nut as evidenced by my luck in football this year, when my running back-depleted team beat my brother’s perfectly-situated team in the playoffs, or when my nephew’s fantasy acumen took a hit as he went winless!

I believe it was Julius Caesar who said “In all of life, but especially in war, the greatest power belongs to fortune”. And if it’s good enough for Caesar, it’s good enough for me.

I’ll continue using a rather curious fantasy strategy this year as it’s been working. I simply make a list of players I’d like on my team along with the round they’re likely to be selected. Then, as the actual draft proceeds, I simply plug them in if they’re still on the board later than I thought they’d be.

The great thing about this method is that it yields a team that, if nothing else, you can root for. At the worst, the team may lose but you enjoy the play. If you’re lucky at the same time, you get the best of all possible worlds, the money and the fun.

Just as an example, I’ve selected four outfielders I’d love to have – Curtis Granderson, Alexei Ramirez (with second base eligibility as well), Nate McLouth and Jay Bruce. Granderson was picked in the mock draft in the fourth round, 5th pick, while Alexei Ramirez was also picked in the fourth round with the 9th pick.

If either player is still there in the fifth round, I’m taking him, or, if an even higher-rated player on my board is still there, say, a Brandon Webb or Jonathan Papelbon who were both third round mock selections, I’ll take one of them.

There’s nothing worse than owning a team that has been very methodically selected by someone else’s druthers. For example, I won’t ordinarily have a Yankee on my team. If I’m picking 8th and Arod is still there, I’m not taking him. Yes, I could trade him but then you’re really leaving your fates up in the air.

Today’s New York Times sports headline screamed “Welcome to Camp Alex” in a font large enough to be unforgettable, not just to me but likely also to Jeter, Teixeira, Damon and Sabathia. Why should they perform? It’ll be Arod who gets the headline. I’d guess the Arod legacy or curse, if it pleases you, will continue. He’ll never play on a winner.

My guess is that all the Yankees will have down years.