Showing posts with label Pujols. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Pujols. Show all posts

Thursday, March 26, 2009

The Agony and the Fantasy

Well, it’s the next to last day before my Fantasy Draft and I’m chompin’ at the bit. I’ve looked over all the fantasy rankings, participated in a couple of mock drafts, and already made my selections in a Yahoo Public League. Unfortunately, none of those drafts quite match the upcoming one.

Saturday morning, I’ll be sitting with the fourth pick. Ordinarily, for most beings of the human variety, that would be just fine. The fourth pick gets you either David Wright or Jose Reyes according to the chalk.

But for a rabid Mets fan, it presents a dilemma. Do I really want to watch Mets games all year and die a little every time Reyes pops up while trying to put one over the fence? Do I want to rage at Wright every time he lets the count go to 0 and 2?

Well, the answer to both those questions is an unequivocal no. I don’t want my first pick to be a Met. If I manage to get Beltran on my second pick though, I’ll be really happy. While Beltran can be at least as infuriating as either Wright or Reyes, at least I shall not have wasted a first pick on him.

The other Mets that could wind up being Crabs (my fantasy team) are Johan Santana and JJ Putz, and maybe even Francisco Rodriguez, but I hate picking players who are coming off a career year. F-Rod won’t match last year’s numbers and, as consistent as Santana has been, there’s got to be a clunker coming up soon, especially having thrown all those innings for all those years.

Besides, pitchers are bigger risks than everyday players, what with all those injuries….elbow, shoulder, wrist, hand, fingers, it’s always sumthin’ with those damned hurlers. So I’ve made rules for myself in selecting pitchers over the years, and I’m pretty sure Santana will land elsewhere.

Putz though has been a Crab several times. This is a guy who performs very well every year and yet nobody ever selects him early. I’m pretty sure it’s his name. Who wants a Putz on his team? It’s like bad luck or something, or maybe a premonition, or possibly it may be prophetic of what your team will be….Putz!

Getting back to that first round, though, I’m pretty sure both Hanley Ramirez and Albert Pujols will be gone. The guys picking at 1 and 2 are too smart or experienced at this to just let those two fellows go floating by. After all, that first pick must be solid. In fact, the first three or four picks should be solid in order to have any chance of winning.

The third guy, my brother, says he’s taking Wright. So he probably will, barring any last-minute brain farts, but he’s more prone to gaseous selections in football. So there’s Jose just sitting there waiting for me, but I won’t take him for those reasons I’ve laid out.

Besides, Jose isn’t getting any younger and, if I may say so, he doesn’t ever seem to be getting any smarter either. And if Manuel should decide he’s the number 3 hitter, only God knows what that will do to Jose’s head. To my mind, Mr. Reyes has a somewhat fragile head, albeit one that always has a smile on it.

Other guys bat close to .300. Other guys steal bases. Hell, I could just pick Willie Taveras in the 15th round or thereabouts. Other guys hit 20 homers, even in our un-juiced era of baseball. And there are even lower-rated guys who’ll score over 100 times. I don’t need no stinking Reyes.

But who’s left? The chalk says Grady Sizemore, Miguel Cabrera, Ryan Braun, Ryan Howard, Josh Hamilton, Mark Teixeira and Jimmy Rollins, God forbid. The only one of those who appeals to me is Ryan Howard. He hits all those homers consistently and drives in all those runs. But a Philly? Do I really want a Philly, especially in this year of all years for my beloved Mets?

Howard has lost 20 pounds though. He could be more dangerous than ever before. And that’s an absolutely scary proposition. Imagine if that big guy didn’t have one of those long droughts he seems to always have! No, I won’t!! Logic won’t make me. Besides, strikeouts is also a fantasy category and, if Howard knows how to do anything besides hitting homers, it’s strike out.

Oh, one more rule, I won’t take any Yankees, unless his name happens to be Giambi, which of course is impossible this year. Interestingly enough, Teixeira takes his place this year, and for many more years to follow. But he’s out, thank God, a man has to have rules.

Miguel Cabrera….hmm. He certainly meets all the qualifications for a number one. Maddeningly consistent for average and power, and on what could be a very potent Marlins team. But he looks like a softball player, one of those guys who guzzles down a beer and then crushes the can with one hand while burping all the way. Nah! Not for me.

My list is getting really short now. Grady Sizemore, Ryan Braun, Josh Hamilton….Golly, this is hard!

Sizemore is a very nice player, does everything a bit, very consistent and this’ll be his fifth entire year. And he plays for Cleveland, a team I’ve always liked, don’t ask me why. Do I remember rooting for Rocky Colavito? Okay, he’s a definite maybe, but geez, his numbers seem Beltran-like, so why is he a number 1 and Beltran just a 2?

Ryan Braun? Hmm, he seems to be a Sizemore type, a little more power and a little less speed, a Brewer, and in what will be just his third full year. He could explode for a career year, he seems primed.

Hamilton? One full year and he died after the All-Star Game. He’s disqualified.

Hmm, Jose is looking better and better, or maybe I should move down the list…Chase Utley? But they’ll laugh!!

Tuesday, February 17, 2009

On Fantasy and Arod

It’s a slow news week for just about everything in sports this Tuesday. Except for Pitt knocking off U Conn, there really wasn’t anything happening, that is, unless you’re really into Alex Rodriguez. Or the Sports Illustrated Swimsuit Edition. As Conan might have said, “It’s a good day to die”. Of course, he had a much more exciting context at the time.

It’s at times such as these when a young man’s thoughts turn to, well, what would I know about that? But I have been taking a look at this year’s fantasy baseball mock drafts, and I must admit there are some strange things shaping up there.

For example, Hanley Ramirez, the Marlins shortstop and Albert Pujols, the Cards perennially great first baseman, are ranked one and two in most mock drafts. While Pujols isn’t really such a surprise, you have to turn your head a little at Hanley’s ascension.

Not that his numbers are bad. Hanley batted .301 with 33 homers and 67 ribbies. Even better, he scored 125 runs and stole 35 bases. But Pujols batted .357 with 116 ribbies and 100 runs scored. Of course, Albert doesn’t steal bases unless the sky is falling, and in these 5 by 5 leagues (stats categories in hitting and batting), speed is an over-rated thing.

It’s also been reported that Hanley came to camp about 25 pounds heavier than last year, and it’s reported to be all muscle, developed through weight training and swimming. While he doesn’t expect to start the season at 225, he’ll probably play at about 210, a ten-pound jump over last year’s weight. Still, I’m wary as to how that muscle will translate to the game of baseball. After all, it never did much for Arod.

Speaking of Arod, and isn’t everybody, Arod is arguably in the top three fantasy picks again this year. Not that there’s any chance I’ll select him, but I know I’ll hate facing any team that does. Alex hit .302 with 35 homers and 103 ribbies in a down year for him. He also stole 18 bases and will be following newly-acquired Mark Teixeira in the batting order. It should be interesting to see how that will affect his ribbies as Teixeira may have already cleared the bases.

As a Mets fan, I always try to draft some Mets but not at the expense of competitive advantage. I’ll be very curious to see my draft position this year as I might be able to select Beltran, my favorite Met, if things work out just right.

Jose Reyes, by the way, was selected 4th in one mock draft while Wright was 5th. I would never select either that high, however, despite all the steals from Reyes and the five-category contributions from Wright. I’m still quite sure they both contributed big-time to the Mets demise last year. I do hold grudges.

Beltran, though, was selected in the second round with the fifth pick. He’s definitely on my list as is Johan Santana, who made it deep into the second round. I’ll be looking to add closer Francisco Rodriguez too, who lasted until the seventh round, and Delgado, who lasted until the ninth round.

If you’re curious, some other Mets went very late, which hopefully won’t be a bad omen. Crazy Ollie Perez and Mike Pelfrey were both selections in the 19th round and John Maine almost wasn’t picked at all, before someone took a chance on him in the 23rd round.

Ah, the importance of good fortune! Nobody appreciates luck more than this fantasy nut as evidenced by my luck in football this year, when my running back-depleted team beat my brother’s perfectly-situated team in the playoffs, or when my nephew’s fantasy acumen took a hit as he went winless!

I believe it was Julius Caesar who said “In all of life, but especially in war, the greatest power belongs to fortune”. And if it’s good enough for Caesar, it’s good enough for me.

I’ll continue using a rather curious fantasy strategy this year as it’s been working. I simply make a list of players I’d like on my team along with the round they’re likely to be selected. Then, as the actual draft proceeds, I simply plug them in if they’re still on the board later than I thought they’d be.

The great thing about this method is that it yields a team that, if nothing else, you can root for. At the worst, the team may lose but you enjoy the play. If you’re lucky at the same time, you get the best of all possible worlds, the money and the fun.

Just as an example, I’ve selected four outfielders I’d love to have – Curtis Granderson, Alexei Ramirez (with second base eligibility as well), Nate McLouth and Jay Bruce. Granderson was picked in the mock draft in the fourth round, 5th pick, while Alexei Ramirez was also picked in the fourth round with the 9th pick.

If either player is still there in the fifth round, I’m taking him, or, if an even higher-rated player on my board is still there, say, a Brandon Webb or Jonathan Papelbon who were both third round mock selections, I’ll take one of them.

There’s nothing worse than owning a team that has been very methodically selected by someone else’s druthers. For example, I won’t ordinarily have a Yankee on my team. If I’m picking 8th and Arod is still there, I’m not taking him. Yes, I could trade him but then you’re really leaving your fates up in the air.

Today’s New York Times sports headline screamed “Welcome to Camp Alex” in a font large enough to be unforgettable, not just to me but likely also to Jeter, Teixeira, Damon and Sabathia. Why should they perform? It’ll be Arod who gets the headline. I’d guess the Arod legacy or curse, if it pleases you, will continue. He’ll never play on a winner.

My guess is that all the Yankees will have down years.