On Fantasy and Arod

It’s a slow news week for just about everything in sports this Tuesday. Except for Pitt knocking off U Conn, there really wasn’t anything happening, that is, unless you’re really into Alex Rodriguez. Or the Sports Illustrated Swimsuit Edition. As Conan might have said, “It’s a good day to die”. Of course, he had a much more exciting context at the time.

It’s at times such as these when a young man’s thoughts turn to, well, what would I know about that? But I have been taking a look at this year’s fantasy baseball mock drafts, and I must admit there are some strange things shaping up there.

For example, Hanley Ramirez, the Marlins shortstop and Albert Pujols, the Cards perennially great first baseman, are ranked one and two in most mock drafts. While Pujols isn’t really such a surprise, you have to turn your head a little at Hanley’s ascension.

Not that his numbers are bad. Hanley batted .301 with 33 homers and 67 ribbies. Even better, he scored 125 runs and stole 35 bases. But Pujols batted .357 with 116 ribbies and 100 runs scored. Of course, Albert doesn’t steal bases unless the sky is falling, and in these 5 by 5 leagues (stats categories in hitting and batting), speed is an over-rated thing.

It’s also been reported that Hanley came to camp about 25 pounds heavier than last year, and it’s reported to be all muscle, developed through weight training and swimming. While he doesn’t expect to start the season at 225, he’ll probably play at about 210, a ten-pound jump over last year’s weight. Still, I’m wary as to how that muscle will translate to the game of baseball. After all, it never did much for Arod.

Speaking of Arod, and isn’t everybody, Arod is arguably in the top three fantasy picks again this year. Not that there’s any chance I’ll select him, but I know I’ll hate facing any team that does. Alex hit .302 with 35 homers and 103 ribbies in a down year for him. He also stole 18 bases and will be following newly-acquired Mark Teixeira in the batting order. It should be interesting to see how that will affect his ribbies as Teixeira may have already cleared the bases.

As a Mets fan, I always try to draft some Mets but not at the expense of competitive advantage. I’ll be very curious to see my draft position this year as I might be able to select Beltran, my favorite Met, if things work out just right.

Jose Reyes, by the way, was selected 4th in one mock draft while Wright was 5th. I would never select either that high, however, despite all the steals from Reyes and the five-category contributions from Wright. I’m still quite sure they both contributed big-time to the Mets demise last year. I do hold grudges.

Beltran, though, was selected in the second round with the fifth pick. He’s definitely on my list as is Johan Santana, who made it deep into the second round. I’ll be looking to add closer Francisco Rodriguez too, who lasted until the seventh round, and Delgado, who lasted until the ninth round.

If you’re curious, some other Mets went very late, which hopefully won’t be a bad omen. Crazy Ollie Perez and Mike Pelfrey were both selections in the 19th round and John Maine almost wasn’t picked at all, before someone took a chance on him in the 23rd round.

Ah, the importance of good fortune! Nobody appreciates luck more than this fantasy nut as evidenced by my luck in football this year, when my running back-depleted team beat my brother’s perfectly-situated team in the playoffs, or when my nephew’s fantasy acumen took a hit as he went winless!

I believe it was Julius Caesar who said “In all of life, but especially in war, the greatest power belongs to fortune”. And if it’s good enough for Caesar, it’s good enough for me.

I’ll continue using a rather curious fantasy strategy this year as it’s been working. I simply make a list of players I’d like on my team along with the round they’re likely to be selected. Then, as the actual draft proceeds, I simply plug them in if they’re still on the board later than I thought they’d be.

The great thing about this method is that it yields a team that, if nothing else, you can root for. At the worst, the team may lose but you enjoy the play. If you’re lucky at the same time, you get the best of all possible worlds, the money and the fun.

Just as an example, I’ve selected four outfielders I’d love to have – Curtis Granderson, Alexei Ramirez (with second base eligibility as well), Nate McLouth and Jay Bruce. Granderson was picked in the mock draft in the fourth round, 5th pick, while Alexei Ramirez was also picked in the fourth round with the 9th pick.

If either player is still there in the fifth round, I’m taking him, or, if an even higher-rated player on my board is still there, say, a Brandon Webb or Jonathan Papelbon who were both third round mock selections, I’ll take one of them.

There’s nothing worse than owning a team that has been very methodically selected by someone else’s druthers. For example, I won’t ordinarily have a Yankee on my team. If I’m picking 8th and Arod is still there, I’m not taking him. Yes, I could trade him but then you’re really leaving your fates up in the air.

Today’s New York Times sports headline screamed “Welcome to Camp Alex” in a font large enough to be unforgettable, not just to me but likely also to Jeter, Teixeira, Damon and Sabathia. Why should they perform? It’ll be Arod who gets the headline. I’d guess the Arod legacy or curse, if it pleases you, will continue. He’ll never play on a winner.

My guess is that all the Yankees will have down years.

Is Nothing Sacred?

Everyone wants to weigh in on the Arod situation and I’m no different, I guess, but why do I feel as if I broke into his bedroom? It just really stinks that anybody gets smeared as Arod has been for taking a drug test that was supposed to be anonymous. That really bothers me. And I’m a Yankee-hater most of the time.

Major League Baseball botched the steroids situation from the very start. If anybody pays for their mistakes, it should be MLB. If any individual needs to be vilified, look to Bud Selig. Look to the Players Union too and its leadership. Their strategies, if they could be called that in their inanity, have failed. And now everybody will pay.

The Yankees will pay the most. As a Mets fan, and often-times Yankee-hater, life is sweet. But I wish I knew for sure my favorite Mets were clean. I don’t.

A couple of things make Arod’s situation unique. For one, it seems as if steroids didn’t really help him that much, as opposed to Bonds and Clemens and Sosa, for example. His performance may have improved as he weaned himself off them. You could say Arod botched steroids use.

A quick look at his career stats would seem to bear this out, that is, unless he also took steroids throughout the entire period from about 2003 and on. (THIS JUST IN_AROD HAS ADMITTED USE FROM 2001-2003) Just taking a look at OPS, the best measure of hitting and slugging, his numbers were as follows from 2003 through 2008: .995, .888, 1.031, .914, 1.067, and .965.

His wondrous 2007 season, in which he batted .314, with 54 homers and 156 rbi’s is suspect, of course, because we don’t really know when he stopped taking steroids. But I do know that he slimmed down a lot from 2006 to 2007. I can recall thinking Arod looked like a blown-up softball player in 2006. And his performance suffered in that year, batting only .290 with 35 homers (but he still had 121 rbi’s).

Interestingly enough, from his first full season with Seattle in 1996 through and including the year 2000, his OPS numbers were: 1.045, .846, .920, .943 and 1.026. He’s really been pretty consistent throughout his career, and it’s really difficult to isolate any drastically improved performance in a steroids year.

So what does all this mean? Baseball has been incredibly naïve AT BEST about the entire steroids question. You’d think that they’d have a greater sense of social responsibility than they have shown. (Talk about naïve, right)?

If there is a crisis for baseball, it’s one of credibility. A sport that absolutely obsesses about statistics suddenly finds itself without any meaningful ones. But, if there is a crisis for the rest of us, it’s the answer to the question “is nothing sacred”?

For it would appear that nothing is. The records aren’t sacred and our freedoms aren’t either. Confidentiality? Privacy? Forget about it. The only good advice you can impart to your children is “don’t do anything wrong, and if you do, admit nothing and don’t submit your sacred body to tests of any kind, drugs, DNA, or whatever comes next.

The U.S. Government has proven its heavy-handedness in its prosecution of Barry Bonds. Greg Anderson, Bonds’s trainer, went to jail for a year or so because he wouldn’t testify against his friend. The U.S. threatened his wife and even his mother. I still can’t believe I’m now rooting for Barry Bonds. But only to a certain extent.

I don’t think Bonds should go to jail, or even the hateful Clemens. But, for as long as they refuse to admit their cheating, for all these guys were cheaters, they should get no Hall of Fame consideration. Their records shouldn’t stand for their steroids years. Throw them out.

For those who have amitted their wrongdoing, I’d say they should go on as before, and if their non-steroid years stats should prove Hall-worthy, so be it. Translation: guys like McGuire, Bonds, Sosa and Clemens should just forget the Hall. But if Arod should just come clean about his involvement, let’s just subtract the wonder years and consider the remaining statistics.

I don’t think that’s so difficult. Hall voters can figure that out. They’ll vote their consciences. And it’s hard to have a clear conscience about someone who just continues to deny when all indications are otherwise.

Giambi and Pettite admitted their usage and life goes on for them. It’s somewhat disturbing that none of the true superstars have tried to come clean. But, if they did, they should get a break.

As a Mets fan, I must admit nothing makes me happier than to think the Yankees made a very stupid 300 million dollar investment. And they can listen to the jeering Arod will take for a decade. Cool.

But, then again, what if some of the other hundred or so names are some of my beloved Mets? It makes you think.

But what I think more than anything is that this country is beginning to stink out loud. Bush did a lot to kill our reputation. The Bonds perjury hearing is in a way quite like the Abu Ghraib torturing of prisoners. It’s heavy-handed and absolutely unnecessary.

Call off the Bonds hearings. He’s finished anyway. He was always a mean guy and that’s the way he’ll be remembered.

Hall of Fame? I don’t think it matters much to most people, except as a curiosity, another interesting factoid in sports, that, let’s face it, is in itself just a curiosity. Who are the best players in the land and what’s the best team of players in the land?

Which player called safe says, “but no, I was really out.” Every competitor, at least the rabid ones, will seek out every advantage. If steroid usage weren’t dangerous, I’d say to just forget about it. But it is dangerous.

But not as dangerous as are invasions of privacy and violations of ethics. Clean up baseball but clean up our government as well.