Monday, May 21, 2012

On Relievers, Colts and Riders

Okay, it wasn’t a totally perfect weekend. Anyone who has spent any time at all on the Belt Parkway will know what I’m talking about. The ride out to the Hamptons took forever and there wasn’t much on the radio either. But then there was nothing but warm weather, beautiful beaches, great food and drink and even a great ride back to Jersey Sunday afternoon, on that very same Belt. It didn’t hurt that the Mets game was coming in loud and clear the entire way either. They had lost those first two games in Toronto, one in spectacular fashion if you like lots of strikeouts by the opposing pitcher. But Dillon Gee and Frank Francisco especially wouldn’t give the Jays the hat trick, so to speak, as long as we’re talking about Canada here. Now anybody who’s been living and dying with the boys in blue this springtime knows that the last few innings are gonna be rockin’ and rollin’, and not always in a good way. Relievers Francisco and Rauch had been especially bad. Bobby Parnell had actually been the best of the pen along with lefty specialist Byrdak. Yesterday though, the pattern was turned on its head. Parnell was bad but Rauch and Francisco were awesome, at least for them. I felt sure Frank would blow a 1-run lead. Geez, if only all the opponents could be former Francisco employers. Meanwhile, the Mets keep winning by a little and losing by a lot and that’s just fine with me. They’ve really only lost a few 1 or 2-run games, which is saying a lot for a team with supposedly bad relief pitching. It seems to me that, despite averages, there have been already a lot of saves and holds in that bullpen. Another great aspect of the weekend though was the Preakness. What a great race!! That splendid I’ll Have Another not only ran down Bodemeister again but this time he did it despite the fact that Bodemeister was not tiring. In fact, Bodemeister seemed to even surge a little as the colt approached on the outside. I love those possible Triple Crown years. There have been a lot of them, eleven to be exact since 1978 when Stevie Cauthen drove Affirmed past Alydar once again for the Belmont win and the Triple. Two other horses won the last two races but lost the really big one, the Derby. A little math shows that in 13 of 34 years, one really good horse was able to win 2 legs but that third leg was just too much. The other great thing about I’ll Have Another is that he has never been favored in any race despite the fact that he’s won 5 of 7 including the Santa Anita Derby, and now the Derby and Preakness. The racing establishment doesn’t like this colt (he only cost $35,000), nor do they like his connections apparently. All I hear about the trainer is bad. All I hear about the jock is bad. That alone makes me want this horse to win three Saturdays from now. Almost nobody wants this horse to win it. He’s not owned by the Mellons or powerful Arabian princes. He’s not trained by Lukas or Baffert or Stevens or anybody anyone has ever heard of. He didn’t run much as a 2-year old but did win his maiden, then finished first in a Grade 2 before finishing sixth in his first Grade 1 race but it was on a sloppy track. The finishing time of 1:55.94 was not great but not bad either, especially considering the easy fractions Bodemeister was setting. The mile time was 1:38.69, which means the final 3/16 of a mile was run in a little over 17 seconds. Consider that Secretariat’s finishing quarter in the Belmont was 25 seconds after having run the first mile and a quarter in 1:59. Sure, it might be a bad analogy as the races weren’t the same distance but it does show that this horse can really turn it on in the stretch. If you were thinking your eyes were deceiving you, if you were thinking Bodemeister had slowed down even if it didn’t appear that way, if you were thinking the jock on Bodemeister was relaxing on the lead, the fractional times tell a little different story. I’ll Have Another’s rider is Mexican and nobody had ever heard of him either. He was young, sure, he’d been riding in Canada, it’s true, but I can’t help thinking that his being Mexican added to the general consensus that this kid couldn’t get it done. The “what-ifs” before the race related to what Gutierrez would do if the fractions were slower than in the Derby, what would he do if he had to rate his mount, what would he do if he didn’t get the perfect trip he had in the Derby? All he did was answer all those questions. The fractions were slow, the leader was strong at the end, but Gutierrez had the big chestnut right there, so to speak, all the way. He once again had a pretty perfect trip but that’s no accident to my mind, especially for a horse coming out of the 9- hole. This Mexican chatterbox is young and strong and smart and hungry and seemingly humble too. He’s not likely to get full of himself. He’s not likely to get into any bad racing luck, he’s not likely to let anything affect him on his way to the wire. It’s a long way, the Belmont, a mile and a half, the longest race any American horse will ever be asked to run. Bodemeister, as of now, won’t be there. Yes, there will be other horses, fresher horses, more expensive horses with richer riders sitting on top. It says here there won’t be better horses. There won’t be better jockeys. This colt won’t tire, this colt won’t break down, this colt won’t get into trouble; this jock won’t let him.

Monday, May 14, 2012

Speaking of Old Guys...and Hamilton

My last column extolled the virtues of teamwork. The Mets, stocked with so many minor leaguers who had played together in places like Buffalo, seemed to pull for one another , especially in the clutch, leading to victory after victory. What I had said was true then and, even after two total breakdowns by free agent Frank Francisco and the rest of the bullpen, it is still true now. Francisco has been a mediocre closer at best. He always has been mediocre. He’s got a good fastball. He’s got other pitches he hasn’t used very much. That’s what you get these days for 6 million. He’s not the brightest light in the box either. Showing up umpires, as Francisco did yesterday, practically guarantees that the corners of the plate will never be kind to him. And I miss that older guy, a guy named K-Rod… Go back to the well, Mets. It was a good idea, it really was, to improve the pen. You just didn’t hit on the right guys. You can’t quit now. Get another guy who can close, maybe one of those older guys, a seasoned guy, somebody who won’t scream at umpires, as much as they might deserve it. It won’t be as if it’ll be money down the hole. Francisco can be a 5th inning guy, you know, the guy you put in when the opponent has just scored 7 runs on the starter. He’s a big strong guy. He could probably be a great innings-eater, like a Pelfrey but in middle relief. Then you can go get a closer, maybe an older guy. Speaking of old guys, all the Pettitte hoopla really mystified me. I couldn’t see what all the fuss was about. To my mind he was a good pitcher but not a great one. Upon closer inspection though, Andy Pettitte was 240-139 in wins-losses for his career, not too shabby. Whitey Ford only had 236. That old Andy averaged a 14-8 record per season for 16 seasons. His career ERA was 3.88. His playoff record, a very extensive one, was 19-10 in 42 post-season starts. Pettitte was a horse for the Yanks for all but three of those sixteen years. Pettitte was even good in 3 years in Houston. The reason, I suppose, that he never stood out to me, other than playing for the Yankees and having so many “t’s” in his name, is that he wasn’t a perennial All-Star, wasn’t really a strikeout guy, averaging about 132, and didn’t have a string of 20-win seasons. But Pettitte did have two 21-win seasons, in 1996 and 2003, and had a 19-win season and an 18-win season. Now that I’m thinking about it, how many pitchers have multiple 20-win seasons? In the modern era, there are names such as Tom Seaver and Jim Palmer, Warren Spahn and Bob Lemon. Roger Clemens had five seasons of 20 or more. The great Nolan Ryan only had two 20-win seasons. Greg Maddux had just two 20-win seasons in a magnificent career that included 355 wins. Some of my personal pitching favorites haven’t pitched as well as Pettitte either. Don Drysdale had two 20-win seasons, Sandy Koufax had three 20-win seasons. How about some Yankees like Ron Guidry or Whitey Ford? Lightnin’ had 3 while Whitey had just 2. Long story short, Andy Pettitte is in some elite company. I guess the hoopla is justifiable. Meanwhile, there are some great baseball stories this year, some involving an old guy, an especially loveable Mets guy, a guy named Carlos Beltran. Carlos has already belted 13 homers for the Cards with 32 ribbies and 28 runs scored. K-Rod, another old Met, is just starting to hum for the Brewers as their 8th-inning guy. K-Rod is still the single season save leader with 62 saves. But the season has been more about younger guys, as things should be, guys like Josh Hamilton and a few really young players, Bryce Harper, Steven Strasburg and Mike Trout. Josh Hamilton has to be my personal favorite. His 18 homers in 32 games projects to about 85 homers for the season. His 44 ribbies projects to about 200 rbi’s. Hamilton did win an MVP two years ago, after having played in only 132 games. Conservatively, I’m projecting a Triple Crown win for Hamilton, with 64 homers and about 150 rbi’s…not too bad. He’ll bat around .360. The last Triple Crown winner was Carl Yasztremski in 1967. Mickey Mantle’s great 1956 Triple Crown season included an average of .353 with 52 homers and 130 rbi’s. As for season home run leaders, if you throw out the juicers, Bonds and McGwire and Sosa, the single season record is still Roger Maris, with 61 in ’61. Hank Aaron had several 40-homer seasons but never exceeded 45 in one single season. Meanwhile, Francisco is on the mound again as this is written. He just struck out Conrad of the Brewers for the second out of the 9th but there are two on base and a run has already scored. Frank is throwing gas but I don’t really have much hope. Once again, the umpire is giving him nothing close. But a drive to the gap from the next batter is tracked down by Duda for the successful close. Maybe this result will give him the confidence he needs to continue as the Mets closer after all. The Celtics have lost Game 2 to the Sixers. That series is now tied 1-1. I’ve been rooting for these older guys, Pierce, Garnett and Ray Allen to have one last hurrah. This loss in Boston is not a good omen. But it would be great to see them in the East Final against Miami. There would be passion in those Final moments. Ripe old Martin Brodeur will face the Rangers . The Yanks lead the Orioles, 7-5 in the 8th. I’m wondering who we’ll see on the mound in the 9th. It won’t be Mariano, speaking of old guys.

Monday, May 7, 2012

Can't Overplay the "Team" Stuff

Sometimes with these Mets you can watch the ugliest baseball you’ve ever seen. Pitchers slide on the grass. Batters swing at pitches that hit them when they’re not watching perfect strikes to the outside corner. These Mets can’t run either. But, before you can say “Jordany Valdespin”, they manage to come out with the win. The sliding pitcher tonight was Bobby Parnell, a guy I hate watching just in general. He is one of the Mets I’d like to see join some other team. I’ve just never seen a player, pitcher or position player, have worse baseball instincts. But Parnell managed to get out of two jams he put himself into and the Mets lived on. Ike Davis is another guy that hasn’t been able to hit a thing since his injury last year. He starts his swing as the pitcher unwinds. When he has finished swinging, the ball is just approaching the plate. Nobody you’ve ever seen since Little League has worse timing at the plate….but not this night…not in his last at-bat anyway. Reserve catcher Mike Nickeas, who had to relieve Josh Thole late in the game after Ty Wigginton tried to take his head off at the plate, usually can’t hit a lick. And this night he was only facing Jonathan Papelbon, Philly’s elite closer. You can see where this is going. Nickeas had one of the best at-bats ever versus the big right-hander. Even with Davis on third and Nickeas on second, it was still easy to figure that, with Valdespin at the plate and two outs, it was still looking pretty good for Philadelphia. But Papelbon grooved a fastball that Jordany was waiting for. Bang…zoom…the ball rocketed into the night. The Mets took the lead, 5-2. Frank Francisco, the Mets closer, almost always looks confused. He’s a guy with all the talent in the world but his talent is matched by his insecurity most nights…just not this night. Francisco looked confident and he proved it by making a great play on a Rollins bunt before blowing away the next two batters and the Mets had beaten Roy Halladay and Papelbon. You can’t overplay this “team” stuff. But what a way to start a road trip! These Mets came to play baseball and when Thole got hurt, they really got fired up. I think a lot of guys took issue with Wigginton’s shoulder to Thole’s head. I know I did. I’m hoping for a nice high hard one tomorrow when Wigginton steps up to the plate. These Mets may be short on talent but they’re a real team. There was good baseball all around. Murphy’s tough at-bats and Ike’s slap tag on Rollins, Turner’s turning that double play despite Victorino’s interference, Wright’s two ribbies early and Torres’s tough at bats all night long. So where are they tonight? The standings always really tell the story as to how good a team really is, or has been anyway, and the Mets are in third place in the NL East behind the surprise Nationals and the Braves, two teams that aren’t all that perfect either. It’s such a long season though. The Nats will be without Jayson Werth, a bigtime hurt, but now it looks as if The Mets will be without Thole and Tejada, for a little while at least. The Braves have Chipper to keep healthy and the Marlins in 4th are just a game behind. The Fish have finally begun to play like a team themselves. They may have finally incorporated Jose Reyes and Hanley Ramirez, and Giancarlo, formerly Mike, Stanton and even Carlos Zambrano. The Fish will be moving on up. But, I’m telling you, this “team” stuff can’t really be over-rated. You can see it and feel it. The Mets may not be the best all-around talent but they do seem to play tough one-run games, always historically an indicator of a good team. They’re tough in the late innings, as the Indians were tonight sweeping the Pale Hose. Even the Knicks showed some of that “team” stuff in that win over Miami in Game 4. Amare melded with Carmelo, finally, and Bibby, of all people, made a huge shot from 3-point land. This is a team that’s fated to play without a strong point guard, it seems, but five guys playing as a team can overcome the obstacles and look for opportunities to win. For one night, the Knicks were able to overcome adversity and play as a team. You see the San Antonio Spurs playing team basketball, and the Celtics too, the Bulls not so much. The Rangers in the NHL and the Devils too must be doing something right, and I guarantee you they’re both playing as teams. All those line changes in hockey demand a team concept by definition. Back to baseball though, you see that camaraderie among teams that have played together for a long time, that easy and happy feeling that carries onto the field. You see it in these Mets, you see it in Texas, you see some of it in Cleveland now, and Baltimore too, a bunch of minor leaguers all coming together in the major leagues. The Yankees? I’m still undecided on them. But most Yankees are free agents when you think about it but there still are Jeter and Cano who came from the minors. There had been Mariano too, and that catcher too…..yeah, you know who. Don’t think their loss doesn’t have some affect on that team feeling. In the final analysis, though, winning is a combination of talent and teamwork, especially in baseball, given the length of the season. The finals always match this talent and teamwork versus that talent and teamwork. Invariably too, there are usually one or two guys who inspire the rest of the team to heights unknown. The Rangers have Hamilton and Kinsler and Young, the Knicks have Pierce and Garnett and Allen, and maybe even Rondo. The Spurs have Duncan and Ginoboli. The Mets have Wright.

Friday, May 4, 2012

Baseball and the Derby Too !

You can imagine my embarrassment. My last column was entitled “When the Mets Take First”. At the time they were just a series win from the top spot in the NL East. They were facing the Houston Astros, the perennially weak, some would say pathetic, Astros. But since the game they’re playing is baseball, naturally the Mets got swept in convincing fashion and now they’re a little closer to last place. That’s baseball. I won’t re-hash the proceedings there in Minute Maid Park as almost nothing that happened there was memorable. It seemed that the park itself haunted the visitors. Nothing worked. That’s all I remember. No hitting, no pitching, no nothing. Really the only bigtime recollection is of that Pelfrey replacement, a fellow named Schwinden who seems to be making a case for not pitching. Geez, that was awful baseball. Houston fans are wondering how their terrific baseball team could have lost all those games before the Mets came to town. If most Mets fans are anything like me, they’re wondering if that series won’t prove to be a harbinger of even worse times to come. But the name of the game is baseball after all. In all probability though, things may get worse before they get better. I’d sooner believe Dillon Gee will have another lackluster effort tonight than that the D-Backs new lefty phenom, Wade Miley, will somehow falter against a mostly lifeless Mets roster. Then it’s another lefty named Patrick Corbin for Arizona against our ace, Johan Santana. We have a chance in that one for sure if all those lefties in the Mets lineup don’t totally fold. Then we get a righty but it’s a guy named Trevor Cahill, a good pitcher, versus the so-far middling R.A. Dickey. Given that the D-Backs have a lineup that includes Justin Upton and Miguel Montero and Jason Kubel, I’d have to say the D-Backs will probably get their share of big hits against the likes of Gee and Dickey, and even Santana if he’s not locating as he usually does. Thank the baseball gods, Chris Young, the pretty great centerfielder for the D-Backs, will remain on the DL for this series. But still, the Mets would seem to be out-gunned. Yes, the Mets have David Wright and Lucas Duda and Ike Davis, all capable of putting the ball into the seats but they haven’t done too much of that lately. Watching Ike at the plate has been a fate worse than death for me. And, collectively, the lineup’s chock full of lefties, and lefties that aren’t that accomplished at hitting lefties. In fact, even most of the righties can’t hit lefties. As much as I hate to admit it too, Mike Pelfrey’s injury may have had an unsettling influence on the team. Pelfrey was the horse, Pelfrey was the iron man who never went down. Pelfrey, as bad as he had been earlier this season, seemed to be hitting his stride right before his arm problem and I have to think his loss had an immediate impact on the Mets young team. But the Mets are coming home. And this game is baseball. And this team they’re facing ain’t the ’27 Yankees. It’s just the D-Backs without Chris Young. As a fan, I’d just like to see some fight from these guys, starting with the power hitters like Ike Davis and Lucas Duda. Even if they lose two of three, I’d like to see a team with heart, something the Mets did not show in Houston. Maybe I should just start thinking about the Derby tomorrow. It looks to be a very competitive race tomorrow and one that’s well nigh impossible to handicap. There’s Bob Baffert coming off a heart attack with the favorite, a colt named Bodemeister after his son. D. Wayne Lukas will be there with a longshot and the second-favorite, Union Rags, many think should be the favorite. And there’s a weirdly white horse too that has a good chance, a colt named Hansen, whose owner is a little strange himself, a fellow named Hansen who wanted to dye the colt’s tail blue but was turned down. Can you imagine how cool it would be to have this outrageously-white colt leading the charge around the final turn for the wire? Shades of the Lone Ranger! And there could be really good horses to his left and right, starting off with Union Rags and Bodemeister but also including 6-1 Gemologist and 12-1 Creative Cause, and several other legitimate nags, like 20-1 Daddy Long Legs who has actually won more money this year, 1 mill two, than any other contender. Luckily for the Mets, there are any number of things for New Yorkers to think about right now besides them. The Knicks, um, I mean Carmelos, continue to stink it up at the Garden, which, though not surprising to anyone who follows basketball even remotely, has seemingly surprised some observers who apparently attached some super-hero status to the coach-killing Anthony. The Rangers and Devils both are making tough Stanley Cup runs and now the beloved Mariano Rivera has gone down to an ACL fielding a fly ball as has been his routine for a zillion years. Now there’s a hero for you, Mariano. That’s a mouthful for a Yankee-hater, believe me. But Rivera has always been a humble guy, a happy guy and a real baseball player, a guy who always fielded his position and in fact wanted Girardi to give him a shot in centerfield someday. You’ve got to love a guy like that. The Yankees certainly do. If Pelfrey’s loss had a bad impact on the Mets, you can only imagine the potential impact of Rivera’s loss to the Yankees. Pelfrey was a well-meaning plugger. Mariano was an All-Star, and everybody says he’s the greatest closer of all time. Meanwhile, there’s the Derby and the rest of baseball. I’m watching Bobby Abreu as a Dodger now vs. the Cubs at Wrigley. Ya gotta love it.