Tuesday, September 29, 2009

Two New Guys and an Old Guy

Two new guys and an old guy, that was pretty much the story Sunday in the NFL.

We got to see rook Matt Stafford lead a hungry team to a looooong-awaited victory over the hapless Skins, so embarrassing to the media, if not the team itself, that many sports shows seem to be calling for the ouster of their seemingly unbeleaguered head coach.

And our own Mark Sanchez, who faked the Titans out of their jocks and threw a little looper TD pass to his tight end, then he put his head down on a scramble and forced his way over the goal line. Then he stunk the joint out for a quarter or so as the Titans came back. No problem, Sanchez just didn’t let them take the game away, coming back to thread the needle to Cotchery on a slant.

And, then, we saw ancient Brett Favre thread the needle with two seconds left to a little-used wide receiver at the back of the end zone to beat a deserving young 49er team. We saw it once, we saw it twice, we saw it again and again, and I know I’ll be seeing some more of it before another Sunday blessedly appears.

Taking that last game first, I was rooting for the young 49ers. I’m just coming off a trip to their fair city, I’ve picked them to win their Division crown (so to speak, I never saw the crown but I’m sure it’s a heavily-bejeweled one, at least as valuable as those boxing championship belts), and I have to admit I’m rooting for Mike Singletary.

The Niners played those Vikings really tough for the entire sixty minutes, yes, including even those last two seconds. Adrian Peterson ran hard but didn’t really kill them, their offense was good enough to put some points on the board against a tough Viking defense, and every Niner seemed to be taking care of business, just as you’d expect from a Mike Singletary representative.

But they played the game a little too conservatively at the end, going three and out in those critical two minutes, leaving time for a grizzled old gunslinger to take a good team down the field. They relied on their defense, which had done the job over and over again all day long. But, when you do that, you leave the door open.

Favre snuck in the door. He completed passes to just about everybody, Rice and Harvin, Shiancoe and even Berrian to take them all the way down to the 32 yard line with just about 12 seconds left.

Then the big bad wolf blew the 49ers house in. The play was designed so that he could step up and then slide to his right, and he could fire a line drive that would be harder to defend. He stepped up and slid around and then threw long enough to eat up ten seconds on the clock as Greg Lewis snared that liner with just two seconds on the clock.

“You have nothing to be looking at the floor for!” Singletary shouted after the game. “You didn’t steal anything! You didn’t do anything wrong! OK? We’re going to get better! We’re going to get there! We will see them again in the playoffs, all right? You hold your head up!”

That Mike felt that was necessary is good enough for me. It had to be said. That team just played a great game. Another young quarterback, Shaun Hill, had thrown 2 TD passes to tight end, Vernon Davis. The special teams blocked a field goal attempt and returned it for a touchdown. The special teams did give up a TD on a kickoff though, and that big play alone could be blamed for the loss.

I really don’t like Favre. Giving credit where it’s due though, that was one great drive and one great play. Maybe nobody else in football does it just that way, not either Manning, not Brady, not Rivers, not Roethlisberger. His arm is back this year, and that’s really my biggest problem with him. He was perfectly happy to play last year for the Jets with a torn biceps. After all, he had to save his precious “never missed a game” record.

And really, all these woops retirements, and all the Green Bay-Vikings melodrama, in addition to ruining last season for the Jets. None of any of that sits too well with me. And the sweetest thing that happened last year for me was the Pennington and Dolphins thrashing of the Favre-led Jets to win a playoff spot.

But he was himself on Sunday. His arm is back. He’s still got the same head though and the Vikings will have to take the bad with the good. It might be enough to take them to the playoffs, especially the way Green Bay has been playing. And Chicago might have something to say about the finish as well. I’ll be rooting for anybody but the Vikings.

That the young Sanchez has been able to propel his Jets to the top of the heap in the AFC East, and beat the Pats in the process, is almost doubly sweet because he’s the guy replacing Favre.

Yeah, it’s been nice seeing a young whippersnapper run around and throw bullets and say all the right things too, unlike his ridiculous teammate Scott, But a swashbuckler isn’t exactly what the Jets may need. And that TD run, as much as I liked it, qualifies him as one.

But those USC quarterbacks ain’t too shabby, Carson Palmer and Matt Leinart and now Sanchez. You could see them hangin’ with D’Artagnan at the local pub. And Francesa says he’s “cavalier” with the ball.

Finally, you have to like a youngster who can light up an entire city, if just for a day, and that’s what Matt Stafford pulled off in Detroit. That Washington team he beat really isn’t as bad as it looked. Look for Detroit to win a few.

Friday, September 25, 2009

A Very Little Bit of Uncertainty

I have to admit to being somewhat confused this Friday. What’s interesting? Certainly not the upcoming Giants and Jets games on Sunday. The G-Men will most likely romp while the Jets play another Jeff Fisher version of an NFL team, the Titans, all defense (but not this year so much) and absolutely no passing game.

The G-Men go against the Tampa Bay Bucs, who have shown nothing in the way of pass defense in their first two games, so Eli should just eat them up whenever he gets the notion. Now that they’ve found Mario Manningham, things should go very smoothly. He and Steve Smith are among the leaders in the NFC receiving categories and they may approach stratospheric numbers after this week. The Bucs toughened their run defense while absolutely killing their historically tough cover-2 pass defense.

The Jets play the Titans from Tennessee and, although the Titans played Houston very tough in their last game, they still managed to lose, even with an unbelievable performance from their fleet running back, Chris Johnson.

The Titans also lost to Pittsburgh 13-10 in the opener, and, well, they may put up a good fight against Ryan’s warriors but I get the feeling that they’ll manage to lose again, but not before they bore us all to death. The Jets will smother the run and then pick-off Kerry Collins ad infinitum.

The Mets are dead. And have been dead, lo these many months of this sorriest of sorry baseball seasons. I refuse to even discuss Beltran and Reyes and Delgado and Maine and Wright’s power slump. I mean, really, how excited can I get about Jeff Francoeur and Angel Pagan? Oh, and Luis Castillo too. And K-Rod and Santana, I guess. Let’s face it, the Mets are in purgatory.

The Yanks face the Red Sox with a five game lead in the loss column, so a lot of the potential drama was drained from this series last week when the Bombers held on to take two of three from the Angels. I had been looking forward to the Angels kicking their butts, but it just didn’t happen. The Yanks pitchers held on in those last two games to make it clear that this isn’t the Yankees of the last few years.

Of course, Joba goes in the Yanks opener and that will undoubtedly have some tongues wagging again, no matter how he does. If he wins against Lester, the story will be his inconsistency. If he loses, it’ll be about his stupid innings-limit (again). Really, the Yanks may have bought the pennant (again), but the general management stinks (again), and the broadcast team is laughable (again).

The NJ Nets are in the news but not in any good way. What a surprise, huh? They sold the team to a Russian nickel and financial magnate whose only other claim to fame is his way with the ladies. And David Stern loves the deal. How nice for him. How sad for the locals.

The poor Knicks haven’t been in the news at all and that situation is an upgrade over where they’ve been the last few years. They did sign David Lee for about 8.5 million and that move bodes well for this year, I suppose. All signs though point to another year of holding steady until they can pick up a top free agent in 2010.

I almost never watch hockey so I won’t bore you any comments in that direction.

Given these circumstances, to me there are only a couple of things that could capture my attention. One is the remarkable comeback of the Twins and the other, strangely enough for a Mets fan, is the almost unreal performance of the Braves under a soon-retiring Bobby Cox.

The Braves could very well steal the wildcard from the Rockies. They play the hapless Washington Nationals in 7 of their last 10 games. The Rockies have a much harder schedule, playing the Central Division-leading Cards, then the hard-hitting Brewers and then the Western Division-leading Dodgers. If the Braves go 8 and 2 while the Rocks can manage only 4 and 5, a distinct possibility, they’ll wind up in a flat-out tie for the NL wildcard.

The SF Giants are still there, of course, and the Marlins have been hanging around, but the hottest team is the Braves, and the niftiest schedule imaginable plays right into their hands. How cool it would be for Atlanta to once again rise to baseball prominence under a beloved but retiring manager? For a city buried in water after a 21-inch pounding of rain, I can think of nothing better; it does my heart good.

And then there’s the upcoming NFL blackouts. What a shame ! Detroit is dying and now they won’t even get to watch their Lions play on Sunday. The same goes for Jacksonville and maybe even some other lower-profile NFL entities but my heart really goes out to Detroit.

A friend pointed out that fans will still see other games on cable but that’s really not making me feel better if I’m a Lions fan. With something approaching 40% unemployment in Motor City, another hit below the belt is not what’s needed. While it’s nice that the Tigers are probably making the playoffs, chances are they’ll be buried in the first round.

So, not being a Yanks fan, and as I foresee Jets and Giants easy wins, I guess I’ll just have to immerse myself in my fantasy team this weekend. That team is at least exciting, with Drew Brees leading the exciting Saints and Marques Colston too. But this will be one of those nail-biter weeks, as my opponent’s got the Baltimore defense and Tony Gonzalez, who keeps getting better and better.

But who really knows in football? The G-Men surely didn’t impress vs. the run against the Boyz and the Bucs have shown they can run the ball with Cadillac and former Giant Derrick Ward. And maybe the Titans will surprise us all.

Tuesday, September 22, 2009

Mid-Beginning and Beginning of End

What a weekend for sports as football moved to the middle of the beginning and baseball moved toward the beginning of the end.

In pro football, it’s hard to decide whether the Giants or the Jets had the better game. They both won, of course, and while the Jets beat Brady and the Pats, something they surely haven’t made into a habit, the Giants had to come back still one more time to edge the Cowboys in their new digs with a game-ending drive that reminded some fans (i.e. me) of Eli’s Super Bowl clincher.

This guy was in San Francisco. I had the pleasure of watching Frank Gore score on two long runs of about 80 yards each for touchdowns in beating one of the would-be NFC West contenders, the Seattle Seahawks. The Raiduhs won too in a laugh-fest against the Chiefs, a game that had a lot of people in KC wondering whether their head coach has any thimbleful of a brain.

The Saints rolled again. The Steelers lost to the Bears. Arizona bounced back from their loss to the Niners with an execution of the Jaguars. Seattle lost its quarterback in much the same fashion as had Donovan McNabb and Number 5’s replacement passed for 391 yards but still managed to get his team shellacked..

Peyton Manning seemed to do it all by himself in the Colts win over the Fish and Houston, which looked vey bad against the Jets, beat the Titans in a shootout. All in all, the Week 2 action lent a little more information towards deciding which teams will be 2009 contenders.

The best thing about the Giants game might have been the emergence of Mario Manningham as their Number One receiver. Manningham seemingly was open all night and he was catching everything too, even the one he juggled in the end zone. The question of who’ll replace Plaxico may have been answered. (Condolences to Plax who got sentenced for the full two years today).

The G-Men didn’t escape unscathed though. Justin Tuck’s shoulder looked as if it might not be the same for weeks to come. They also seemed to get every break imaginable, which, while nice, doesn’t really bode well for the future. The running game really didn’t impress, Jacobs and Bradshaw managing just 95 yards, and their defense against the run was a little bit scary at times.

But they’re 2-0 and they’ve beaten two division opponents. While they haven’t beaten the Eagles yet, things don’t look too good for the Birds. So the G-Men are lookin’ good heading into Week 3. As they’re slated to play the Tampa Bay Bucs, whose pass defense has gone decidedly south, it should be one more week of big numbers for the passing game.

As I was in that city by the bay, I didn’t catch the Jets game, except for highlights. Most of those featured Tom Brady sliding and ducking and throwing before he would have liked. It’s a tribute to his savvy in the pocket that he didn’t get sacked, but the outcome was the same, hurried passes and a non-existent passing game by Patriot standards. And Revis shut down Randy Moss….not too shabby.

And yeah, the Pats didn’t have Welker, but it’s hard to say whether it would have made that much difference. In truth, I think it would have been a lot harder if Welker were able to play. And, in general, the Jets offense really didn’t do much against a Pats defense that featured 3 or 4 newbies that replaced some very big names in Boston.

So there is a decided buzz in New York for football. After the decidedly non-buzzing Mets season, and the recent decline of the Yankees, it’s nice to hear, especially for Jets fans, I imagine.

But the Jets per se are getting a little full of themselves, even though that whole defensive toughness thing that Ryan has instilled may require it, I suppose. But I’m not crazy about the talk. It’s Week friggin’ Two. And the usually strong but winless Titans are on tap. Let’s beat a few more teams before we get crazy.

But the weekend wasn’t all about football. The Yanks lost again and are just four games ahead in the loss column in the Division over the Red Sox. As they’re now in La-la Land playing (and losing to) the Angels, things might be looking up for Boston….finally.

The Yanks are down on their pitching too, especially as they’ve gone out of their way to screw up Joba, and they’re already driving Burnett to distraction. I’m looking forward to the Yanks losing two more to the Angels and host Boston only two games up in the loss column.

The Twinkies aren’t dead yet either, and, aside from losing a bet to my brother if they make the playoffs, the thought doesn’t really upset me. Detroit doesn’t send me. The Twins have the better lineup, I believe, and are a little more exciting to watch.

The Rangers are just about dead, which disturbs me. What a hard-luck team, losing Michael Young, their shortstop, and Josh Hamilton to injuries down the stretch. Losing six in a row to Seattle and the lowly A’s quite did the job.

Much to my dismay, in the National League, the Giants hit a road block and the Rockies are sailing. The Marlins are still in it too. So the last eleven games of the baseball season look to be very exciting.

My Metsies are still in the news too, if only to say what bad shape they’re in and point out how difficult it may be to right the ship. A painful topic maybe, but one that is at least interesting. I understand they’ll have about thirty million to spend if they stick to their current budget.

And, if the Wilpons want to hang on to their financial credibility, which has been questioned in some quarters, they’ll spend some money. And keep most of the core.

Friday, September 18, 2009

A Heart in San Francisco

This fine Friday is special. Why? Because I’m leaving town, bound for San Francisco, that city by the sea, but also home of the 49ers and baseball Giants and geez, whoever cared about those things before?

But the Giants’ve got the freak, Tim Lincecum, and Matt Cain, and that probably beats Sabathia and Burnet. And the Niners have a crazy old linebacker from Jersey named Mike Singletary, who’s been turning an annual pigskin joke into a real live football team.

Lincecum is 14-5 with 244 strikeouts in 207 innings, not too shabby I’d say for a team with no cleanup hitter, well, to be honest, they really have no hitter of any kind, leadoff, a guy to move the runner over, a real live number 3 hitter; you name it, the Giants don’t have it.

Why do they call him the freak though? Maybe it has something to do with being 5’11” and 170 pounds. Maybe it’s his weird delivery that features a whip-like release that ends up somewhere real close to his foot. Or maybe it’s just his demeanor, which is kind of laid back and unworldly, other-worldly?

Anyway, if they just had Lincecum at the top of the rotation, they’d be scary enough, but then there’s Matt Cain too. Now he’s only 13-6 with a paltry by comparison 155 K’s in 202 innings, but how many guys have a 2.71 ERA and 1.17 WHIP?

Oh, and there’s Barry Zito at 3.94 and Jonathan Sanchez at 4.16 and oh, yeah, they picked up an old retread (are there any new retreads) named Brad Penny from Boston, a city obviously not to his liking. But he likes San Fran real well apparently as he’s given up just 4 whole runs in 22 innings in 3 games in September.

Gone are the days when all anybody heard about was Barry Bonds, although they still revere him there, strange as that may seem to me. But then, there’s Giambi and Arod and McGuire and Sosa and about a hundred others. Of course, they liked Bonds before we knew about all those other guys. Maybe it’s having watched all those majestic drives into the water. That would probably do it.

As luck would have it, the Giants won’t be playing at home this weekend. They’ll be in La La-land, home of the Dodgers and, oh yeah, another freak named Manny Ramirez, who seems so much less freaky since his name appeared in the steroids-yes column.

Nevertheless, the Dodgers lead in the West by 5 over the Rockies and 8 ½ over San Fran’s finest. But they’re just 3 ½ behind the Rocks for the wildcard with 16 games left to play. And that will mean 6 more starts at least for Lincecum/Cain and a guarantee that the rest won’t be easy with Zito, Sanchez and Penny going.

The relief’s not too shabby either with Brian Wilson closing and Jeremy Affeldt setting things up. Wilson looks kinda freaky too, by the way, but he’s got 34 saves and a 2.69 ERA so whos going to make a big thing about hair.

So I won’t be seeing the Giants first-hand or experiencing the thrill of AT&T Park but I shall be feeling that buzz, a buzz you feel more in smaller and less cynical markets than New York, like Denver for sure and even Chicago for that matter.

The buzz will be that much stronger as the Niners are playing Seattle at home and both teams won their openers, but the Niners did it versus last year’s NFC Super Bowl team, the Arizona Cardinals while Seattle just walked all over an overmatched Rams squad.

But it all started for these Niners against Seattle last year. That was Singletary’s finest moment for most NFL fans (but not Mike himself) as he benched his star tight end Vernon Davis at halftime and dropped his pants to make a point. And, since that game, his point seems to have been made.

“…cannot play with them, cannot win with them, cannot coach with them. Can’t do it. I want winners. I want players that want to win.” And since then, the Niners have won, going 6-3 since that game and since inserting Shaun Hill at the quarterback position.

Ya think that doesn’t inspire SF fans? I know it inspires me, and I’ll bet it inspired at least some of those players. (Davis is now a team captain). You sure can’t point to any one guy, or even any one portion of the team, as the reason they’re winning. They just seem to be eking out these team victories.

Defense is a good part of it though and the Cards found that out last week as Kurt Warner was harrassed into mistake after mistake. The running game is part of it too, even though they couldn’t run very well against the Cards. The passing game got them the win in that one.

But that’s par for the course for this team. Whatever it takes to win from week to week, they seem to come up with. They’re my pick to win that Western Division this year, and this game against Seattle should go a long way towards deciding that one.

It’s too bad they haven’t yet been able to sign their Number 1 pick in the draft, WR Michael Crabtree, even though their offer was said to be for 5 years and 22 million, 16 of it guaranteed. Even that enormous sum is apparently low-balling a Number 10 pick overall. They supposedly are trying to appeal to the player directly. I don’t hold out too much hope for that effort, and I’d rather see them spend that money on a more established wideout.

But even the holdout might eventually work to their advantage, especially if they can manage to beat up the Seahawks a little this Sunday.

Yeah, I’m looking forward to it , almost as much as that the Jets have taken the Pats and those G-Men the Boyz.

Tuesday, September 15, 2009

NFL - Perspective and Indicators

The Jets were electric and the Giants were boring but won anyway. Don’t get too giddy yet though, New York sports fans. I hate to be a party pooper but Houston is still too obviously Houston and the Skins, well, it’s hard to tell how bad they are. What’s missing in this first week of the season is perspective.

We’ll need to see a few more weeks of football before we can really begin to figure anything out. For example, the heretofore lowly 49ers upset the NFC Champion Arizona Cardinals. That’s a good indicator that they’ll be better and they have a good defense but did Arizona just have a bad game?

I just finished watching the Chargers look horrible while managing to just edge by the Raiders in Oakland. The Bills just absolutely threw one away against the lucky Pats. Are the Bills really that improved or are Brady and the Pats still rusty?

A really confusing game was the Bengals-Broncos match. I had expected the Bengals to be a possible playoff team this year while I thought the Broncos would be much better than everyone expects them to be, after the Cutler-Orton trade and the unhappy Brandon Marshall fiasco. But the Broncos won the game on a tipped ball in the last seconds in a very low-scoring game. What the heck does that mean?

Most Giants fans will remember the first three weeks of the 2007 Super Bowl season. They were marked by an atrocious Giants defense, a laughably bad defense. Then they magically transformed into something else. So, even when it seems pretty clear what you’re witnessing, it ain’t necessarily so.

But there are indicators. In the Jets case, all the indicators are good. The offensive line was dominant, the receivers aren’t that bad after all, and Mark Sanchez found a lot of them with no problem at all. (Well, there was that one pick but who’s counting). But how bad is that Houston secondary? Only time will tell.

The Giants indicators were good too but they certainly weren’t electric, especially on offense. While I know they played it smart, as they should, it was pretty much a yawner, except for that pass rush. The Umenyiora forced fumble and return for a TD was really good to see but then that was offset by the Skins fake punt for a TD. Does that mean anything? Will that be an isolated incident?

The Cowboys beat the Bucs by a good margin but their run defense looked kind of shaky, especially early. And Romo looked fantastic on those TD’s to Williams and Crayton but how bad was the Bucs pass defense? It looked pretty bad to me. And is Cadillac Williams really that tough? Hard to say, as Derrick Ward (remember him?) looked pretty good too.

We’ll get a whole giant helpingful of perspective next week though, as the G-Men face off against the Boyz. Early indications are that it will be a war. Only after that game will we be able to see just how good the Giants defensive front really is.

Then there’re the injuries, really season-shaking injuries, as the Bears lost Brian Urlacher and the Eagles lost McNabb for at least a couple of weeks. (I’ve had a cracked rib myself and my guess would be three weeks). Can the Eagles win with Kolb? Can the Bears survive without Urlacher? (My guess would be no).

Most distressing for me was the Vikings game against Mangini’s Browns. Adrian Peterson ran wild in the second half and Brett Favre looked fine, much to my dismay. I was kind of hoping for some “look-out” blocks in the Vikings offensive line and some bone-jarring sacks of Favre but it just never happened.

But are the Vikings really that good? Gimme a break, that was the horrible Browns on the other side of the field. Drew Brees threw 6 TD passes but, come on!! That was the winless Lions the Saints were shellacking.

The point is made, I think. The only thing that’s sure is that you’d better not place too much faith on what you thought you saw in Week 1. The eyes can be deceiving, especially in the wild and wacky world of the National Football League.

Football is more unpredictable than other sports, if just because of emotion. It’s a game dominated by emotion. And injuries. And both of those things are fairly unpredictable, even if you can almost guarantee that certain players will get hurt sometime in the course of the year, like McNabb, for example.

The Eagles at least have an answer for McNabb. And, because they weren’t too sure about either Kolb or Vick, eventually, they made a very smart move in picking up Jeff Garcia, who was very reliable in backing up McNabb a couple of years ago. The Eagles seem pretty serious about their chances of winning it all this year. All indications would seem to point in that direction anyway.

Aside from injuries, however, there is that emotion that makes the difference between winning and losing. It seems to come from the top too, from the ownership and the management and the quarterback. For examples, I’ll give you Dan Rooney and Rex Ryan and Tom Brady, or even Eli Manning, in a pinch.

Dan Rooney’s Steelers are always good, they always seem to play with passion and they always seem to have a good coach who believes in fundamentals and effort. Rex Ryan’s defenses always played with emotion and now his team, the Jets, seem to have been touched by his magic wand. And Brady just won’t lose (except when he’s on his back a lot), as he proved again last night.

So I’m psyched, definitely, for an eventful season. The Jets play the Patriots, the Giants play the Cowboys and all will be right with the world. I can forget about the unhappy Mets season, the incredible ugliness at the U.S. Open, and look forward to two tough teams in town. Now.

Thursday, September 10, 2009

The 2009 NFL Season Predictions

Well, here we are. After seeming months of pre-season, fantasy picks and predictions, and playoff picks by everybody with half-a-brain, the 2009 NFL season finally kicks off tonight when Super Bowl champ Pittsburgh faces Tennessee. It’ll be on NBC at 8:30 PM.

But that’s hardly the top of the NFL news. That belongs to Big Ben’s rape hearing and Bret Favre’s biceps tendon. It seems as if nobody really cares that much for the opener. My take? The Titans lost Haynesworth and they’ll start paying for it tonight.

Because the season starts tonight, I need to get my own predictions done. And, because I like to take a different slant on most things, I decided to use the Vegas over-under numbers as my starting point. After all, those numbers should constitute that which most people feel are the capabilities of each team in the hunt (and aren’t they all).

My Methodology will be as follows: I’ll first layout the Vegas over/under lines by division, taking note of the playoff teams. Then I’ll outline my exceptions to those playoff predictions, based on those o/u lines that seem out of whack. Then I’ll expound on the buggest surprises of the year. Who will be the 2009 version of the 2008 Arizona Cardinals or the Miami Dolphins?

Ok, here goes”

O/U NFC East Over or Under-Rated My Rating My Predictions
10 Philadelphia Div champ 11 Div champ
9.5 NYG Wildcard 1 Over-rated, young wideouts, new def. coord 8.5
9 Dallas Tie wildcard2 Over-rated, changes, schedule, coaching 8
8 Washington 8
NFC North
9.5 Minnesota Div champ Over-rated, switch with Green Bay 8.5
9 Chicago Tie wildcard2 9 Wildcard 1
8.5 Green Bay Under-rated, switch with Minnesota 9.5 Div champ
4.5 Detroit 5
NFC South
9 New Orleans Div champ 10.5 Div champ
8.5 Carolina 8.5 Wildcard 2
8.5 Atlanta 8
6 Tampa Bay Under-rated, good OL, Cadillac & run game 7.5
NFC West
8.5 Arizona Div champ 8.5
8 Seattle 8
7.5 SF Under-rated, Singletary, not Crabtree difference 8.5 Div champ
6 STL 6




O/U AFC East Over or Under-Rated My Rating My Predictions
12 New England Div champ Over-rated, defense 10 Div champ
7.5 Miami 8
7.5 Buffalo 6
7 NYJ Under-rated, defense 8
AFC North
10.5 Pittsburgh Div champ 10 Div champ
9 Baltimore Wildcard 1 Under-rated 10 Wildcard 1
7 Cincinnati Under-rated 8.5 Wildcard 2
6.5 CLE 6
AFC Central
10 Indianapolis Div champ Way over, coach, wr’s 8.5
9 Tennessee Wildcard 2 Over, def suffers 8.5
8.5 Houston 8
8.5 Jacksonville Under-rated, OL 9.5 Div champ
AFC West
10 San Diego Div champ 10 Div champ
6.5 Denver Under-rated, coach 8
6 Kansas City 6
5.5 Oakland 5.5

Okay, then, the biggest surprises in the NFC will be the SF 49ers and Green Bay Packers. On the downside, just as surprising to some will be the demise of the Vikings and Bret Favre, or the slide of the Giants.

The prime consideration here is coaching. I believe people make a difference, and nowhere was that more evident than in the case of Mike Singletary. He took over a reeling team last year and managed to turn it around. He faced up to the coddled stars and made that team play like its coach….tough.

The Packers made good management decisions regarding Favre and Rodgers and those right moves will show up in the standings. Their running back, Ryan Grant, is healthier and Rodgers looks way, way, way better than Favre. He’s younger and he may even be smarter. Their defense will be more aggressive.

The Vikes will suffer as the Jets suffered last year with Favre, the single most over-rated player in NFL history. If it’s not his biceps, it’ll be something else, and whatever it is will entail having a lot of Bret in front of the cameras. This team will be totally demoralized.

The Giants are just given too much credit for their offensive line and running game. There are new receivers here and probably still no breakaway threat. The Cowboys have similar problems except that their defense will be even worse. Romo’s best receiver is the tight end, nothing to write home about.

In the AFC, the Jets will be better but not quite good enough to make the playoffs. Baltimore will become more of a throwing team and score more while Cincinnati, behind a rejuvenated Carson Palmer, and the return of Ochocinco to prominence.

Jacksonville may start slowly but their attention to their offensive line problems will pay off more and more as the season progresses. MJD will get his yards and scores, but the QB David Garrard will benefit even more from the additional protection. Denver will improve as well but not enough to be playoff-bound.

Green Bay, New Orleans and Philadelphia would appear to be the main contenders for the NFC Championship, and I’d have to give the nod to the Eagles. Baltimore will once again challenge the Steelers for AFC pre-eminence and this time they’ll prevail.

The Eagles will battle the Ravens in the Super Bowl. They’ll win it too, and Michael Vick will have a lot to do with it. But Donovan McNabb will win the Super Bowl MVP.

Mangini won’t have too much affect on the Browns but he’ll bring them back to respectability if not unpredictability. And Josh McDaniels will be vindicated for his loss of Cutler, even though Cutler will have success with the Bears in Chicago. The Broncos will be an improved team, making fewer mistakes and playing better defense.

I’ll be rooting for the Giants, Eli and the rest, of course. I just wish I could be more optimistic. These receivers, though, just don’t excite me and Eli will be lost without his big target. Opponents will stop the short game and there’ll be nobody to execute anything longer, not with enough consistency anyway.

And they’re already missing Steve Spagnuolo, who will eventually become a household name in Saint Louis.

.

Monday, September 7, 2009

I Love Labor Day!

I love Labor Day. What could be better for a sports fan? First of all, performing any actual labor is practically forbidden and what could be better than that? But the sports tableau is unbelievable, especially if you like tennis.

Now I’m watching this little mercuric Melanie Oudin drive this Russian crazy, and being that it’s Nadia Petrova, that shouldn’t be that hard. Ms Oudin is playing smart, taking full advantage of her fitness, moving Petrova left and right, up and down, and she kicked her butt in the second set tie-breaker.

I’m not ordinarily a jingo, but I find myself saying, “move that fat Russian” at every opportunity. But I have an excuse. This little fireball inspires some loyalty; she plays so hard!

But enough about tennis. The great thing on Labor Day is that you can switch between the Yankee game and the tennis, or you can watch the Mets encore against the Cubs with Mike Pelfrey apparently trying to prove he really doesn’t stink. (I had reamed him a new butt in my last article.)

The Yankee pitcher, C.C. Sabathia, is similarly easy to root for (even if the team is not). The last time I looked, he was tie at 1, his only wayward pitch was one that ventured over the plate against Tampa Bay’s Longoria.

Tampa Bay is still hanging in there, especially with Garza on the mound. He’s another real competitor, throwing hard all the time an with every pitch purposeful. (Sabathia’s in trouble now, turning back to the Yankee game).

Labor Day is also like the end of the sports fiscal year, if you will. Baseball’s winding down and it seems apparent who’ll be in the Series (although this year may be different), the football season is just beginning, fantasy drafts have all been conducted, and, as I said, there’s this U.S. Open.

But basketball’s right on the horizon too. And this year, we may even be able to root for the Knicks a little harder. I like the moves they’ve made so far, but it’s almost funny to see the horrible Curry pulling down the money he’s making, 9.7 million. It’s hard to make up that kind of deficit.

But there’s life at the end of the Knicks tunnel. They may not have Nate Robinson anymore, or that nice power forward, but they do have Larry Hughes, Darko Milicic and Cuttino Mobley. They’re all making some fancy bucks too, but I’m pretty sure those salaries will be coming off soon.

Back at Flushing Meadows, Oudin is up 5-3 in the third, and thoroughly wiping out the Red Menace. (Really, I’m no jingoist). Petrova’s done. Oudin just missed on her first match point, but she’s so so close and the result seems inevitable. Relentless is what she is.

And there it is, the end of things; Oudin has prevailed. “Down goes Dementieva, down goes Sharapova, and down goes Petrova”, says the announcer. Three Russians in a row, they’ll be talking about Oudin down in friggin’ Moscow for a long long time. Wow! I’m really psyched!

Geez, the Yankee game seems kind of tame compared to Oudin. But it’s over, it’s time to move along. The Yanks are still tied 1-1, a real pitching duel between CC and Garza. Bottom of the sixth and with these two horses, we may not see any relievers for a long time yet.

Arod just got a little single, and it’s his third hit in as many tries. With just one out and men on first and second now, this could be the end for Garza. Arod’s actually holding up pretty well this year, batting about .280 now with about 24 homers and 80 ribbies, not too shabby for missing April.

It’s so tough to watch men’s tennis and not just for obvious reasons. The thought of watching these guys for up to five sets is just too daunting, kind of the same way I feel in the first quarter of a basketball game. The women just have to win two sets and every point holds your attention.

Nevertheless, Federer is going now against Robredo, and while Federer may be the best player in the world, it’s the first set and I know there’ll be another two hours, at least, before this match winds itself down.

Geez, I just had to explain to my wife about Labor Day. It seems she’s never heard that you don’t work on Labor Day. Wikipedia tells me that I am right (again). This day has its origins back in the 1880’s after a particularly harsh treatment of labor unions in the Pullman Strike. Beyond that though, tradition has always called for this day to be a day of rest, something totally alien to my Brit wife.

At any rate, there is a conspicuous absence of football today unless you’re rabid enough to watch the 4th exhibition games. Not me. The NFL seems to think they can put anybody out there and still command the same commercial dollars from advertisers. No way. Not this guy, I have trouble slogging through all the commercials for a regular season contest.

There have been some things happening though, and I was sorry to see David Tyree let go, albeit totally agreeing with the move. Now both heroes of the Super Bowl are gone and they’ll be missed, if just for the sake of nostalgia. But Tyree’s routes (and hands) were always an adventure.

Back to the Yankees, Posada and Cano (and Hughes for that matter) just teamed up on a great pitchout and throwout of Crawford, the fastest Ray, at second base. Just when I was thinking what a huge mistake it was for Hughes to walk Crawford, the error gets expunged by a beautiful play (and call).


And that’s what makes this Yankee team kinda special, their infield defense is formidable and their hitting and relief pitching are all there too. I was surprised to hear that even Aceves has ten wins.

Aaaaah, Labor Day.

Friday, September 4, 2009

The Open, Blackouts and Budgets

Wow! This U.S. Open women’s bracket is really sumthin’. A 17-year old young woman from Georgia just beat Maria Dementieva, and she looked great doing it. Dementieva didn’t give it away either. Oudin took it.

Oudin won it on an ace. But there were some long rallies and some wicked forehands mixed in. And this is all happening right up there in Flushing Meadows, hard by Metsland.

Tennis continued into today, of course, and we got to see Maria Sharapova, who only even needs a last name because of one Maria Kirilenko. I love the U.S. Open. And this Open may be enjoying the best weather of any U.S. Open ever. Just a good time for everybody in a beautiful setting.

Today though, the Mets won again, for once not losing the first game of a series. So that’s pretty good, and they beat Carlos Zambrano. The Mets pitcher was Bobby Parnell and, after about five horrid outings in a row, he shut out the Cubs for seven innings. So that’s two in a row for my sorry team, the first time they’ve pulled that off since July 30th.

But one thing definitely caught my eye today, and pretty soon it will be all too apparent to football fans in lots of places. Commissioner Goodell expects that 20% of NFL games will be blacked out this year. That’s one out of five for you math minors. In New York we may be safe but what about the six or seven cities every week that can’t sit back and watch their local football team on TV.

I can’t imagine the uproar. For example, in Denver (which may or may not be one of the cities in trouble), folks can sit home on Sunday morning and see NFL action starting at 10 AM. Then they’ll take a little break maybe and see another game at 1 PM. If the Broncos are blacked out, that goes a long way towards ruining your Sunday morning.

Too many Sundays like that and maybe football fans will have to develop an alternative life style. I can’t even imagine what that would be…maybe attendance at churches will soar to the heights but I don’t think so. People will go skiing or take a ride into the mountains for a day trip. Maybe they’ll realize what they’ve been missing and forget about the vicarious thrills of hard hits (yeah, even in Denver) and bad behavior (especially in Denver).

Can anything be worse than trying to get into a team’s fourth exhibition game? Oh My God! Lots of offense if that’s what turns you on, but the whole game is played by folks you’ve never heard of. And may never hear from again.

The Jets had Sanchez on the field for one series against the Eagles second team. He was great again, going four for four to that nifty tight end, Dustin Keller, twice and once to Cotchery in the end zone. Other than that, they managed to lose the game but nobody really cared.

The Giants game was even more boring but I guess Sinorice Moss made a case for himself, if anybody really cares about Moss. I know he’d shown nothing for at least two years. If I were the Giants, I’d drop him anyway. It’s a little late in the game to decide to show up and play.

Baseball’s getting a lot crazier. I just watched Jim Thome belt out a hit for the Dodgers! I can’t get used to this. Meanwhile, Giambi banged out another big hit for the Rockies. Cliff Lee is pitching for the Phils. Pedro Martinez is too, and he beat Lincecum the other day. And that’s only a tithe (well maybe a mini-tithe) of the players who’ve changed teams since the break.

Everybody’s just picking up players willy-nilly. I wonder if teams feel a little better this year about dumping salaries. Makes sense to me. But it sure does make things confusing. And things are confusing enough, especially if you’re a Mets fan.

I mean, really, what kind of curse got laid on this team! Not only did all the players get hurt but the friggin’ owner went out and lost a lot of his money too, probably more than a a tithe. It’s really not fair. Not only is our present messed up, but now our future doesn’t look that rosy either.

Ah well, I guess in this economy,you just have to roll with the punches, and if the recession or depression or whatever it is we’re in the middle of, finally starts to intrude on our fantasy sports world, I guess we had it coming. It’s certainly intruded on everybody else’s life. Why should we be immune?

Maybe the Mets will become like the Pirates, developing young players and then dumping them at peak value. Even if it could be for just a couple of years, that would be very depressing. Not that it’d be all bad to see young guys playing the game, especially after the years of watching aging fellows not quite living up to what they had done in the past.

I know one thing. I’m really tired of watching Pelfrey. He’s finally made it to my list. How many times can he pitch a good one only to look like a Little Leaguer the very next start. Enough with the head cases already. We already have Ollie Perez, that’s more than enough.

Aah, Minaya will think of something. If anybody’s adept at picking up serviceable players for just a little money, it’s him. And things aren’t totally bad, I suppose. Beltran’s supposed to be showing his face next week, and I guess Reyes will be back next year. Delgado’s gone but so will that salary. If Omar is free to spend it, all will be right with the world.

Meanwhile, Mets fans can try to imagine the Yankees in a short series with just about anybody with two good starters and getting their arrogant butts beat.