This is the longest week in the sports calendar. It must be. I even turned on a minute or so of the Pro Bowl. There should be some form of punishment for that, if the game itself isn’t penalty enough. Unless you’re a madman or Super Bowl trivia expert, this is a week for that ski trip you always wanted.
Oh yeah, there’s basketball. Right. The Knicks traded their way out of contention and nobody wants to play for the Nets. Seton Hall was exciting for a brief while but those heady days appear to be over. The Australian Open was great, I must say, especially the Men’s Final between Djokovic and Nadal but that’s all over.
Oh yeah, there’s baseball hot stove stuff. Every other team in the world is doing something interesting but if you’re a Mets fan, you have to be happy with less. For Mets fans, this is the beginning of the beginning if you’re an optimist. It’ll be a year of hoping a team plays over its head….constantly.
I’m not into hockey but this week I actually wish I was. For a guy who’s never really skated, it’s tough to follow hockey. There is some Rangers buzz though and how often does that happen? Okay, I’m done, what else is there? Oh well, it’ll be a good week to hit the gym a lot. Geez, maybe I can even start following the Republican nominees around. That’s at least nasty.
I know this would probably be a good time to do a nice lengthy analysis of Giants-Pats but geez, it seems I’ve covered the Giants side of things enough already. I’ve maintained they’d need the best defense in the league to even get this far. That has proven true. But they also seem to have a little luck going for them lately, most notably against San Francisco.
I mean, really, how often is the return guy going to let the ball hit him in the knee? And how often is the same guy going to fumble? That’s what makes me nervous going into Indianapolis. It would seem that maybe the G-Men’s good luck is due to turn. I don’t want to put the horns on them but, really, will the Patriots give the ball up that easily?
I don’t think so. Plus, there’re all those characters you’ve heard about before. Yeah, yeah, Bellichick. Yeah, yeah, Brady. And now, yeah, yeah, Gronkowski. But maybe the big scary tight end will have no wheels for this game. That sure sounds like more good luck to me.
The question for me is whether or not the Giants can beat that Pats team without getting ridiculous breaks. It is possible, I think. But it’s also possible that Bellichick will come up with something weird. For this game, if I were him, I’d use the formula that won me a Super Bowl for the Giants against the Buffalo Bills back in 1991.
That day, Bellichick’s Giants defense decided to let the Bills QB Kelly complete short passes in front of them and then proceeded to knock the ever-loving hell out of the receiver. Before you knew it, the high-flying Bills were doing nothing and the Giants were just pounding the ball on the ground, keeping that Bills offense off the field. Before the Bills figured out that the G-Men were letting them run, it was almost too late.
I say “almost” because the Bills actually did finally run the ball into scoring position with a chance to win. But Scott Norwood was wide right with his field goal attempt. It was too late for the Bills only because Norwood missed. All of Bellichick’s scheming could have gone out the window. Luck showed its ugly side to the Bills that day.
But the circumstances between that game and this one are similar. The Giants have a running game for sure but the real threats are in the passing game and lots of yards after the catch. Why not sit back and blast the hell out of Nicks and Cruz and Manningham? Why wouldn’t the Pats force the G-Men to beat them on the ground?
On the other side of the ball, the Pats would try to run the ball as O.J. Anderson did that January day in 1991. That will really be the challenge for the Pats. But, even if they can just get a few yards now and then on the ground, it’ll enable Brady to dink and dunk them to death with Welker and Hernandez, their other tight end and jack-of-all-trades. A ground game will also tire out those animals on the Giants defensive line.
If the Pats can do all those things, pound the Giants receivers, run the ball successfully, and dink the Giants to death, they could easily win this game. Incredibly enough, the betting line currently says the Pats are favored by 3; the over-under at 54 ½. Vegas thinks it’ll be somewhere around 29-26 in the Pats favor.
No two teams know each other better than these Giants and Pats, having played once this season already, and both head coaches coached together under Bill Parcells. When there are no surprises, the team with the better talent will tend to win the game. You couldn’t convince me that the Pats have the better overall talent.
With a healthy Gronkowski, the Pats may be more talented. But a slowed-down Gronk makes a big difference. He’s been Brady’s favorite receiver. Even a big guy has trouble playing with pain. And a high ankle sprain presents a nice target for further injury. I’d expect some low tackles on Mr. Gronkowski.
This game is too hard to predict really, but, especially if both teams neutralize the perceived power on the other side, I’d think this will be a game of unlikely heroes, maybe a Patriots running back or a Giants tight end. I don’t think the “usual suspects” will have a chance.
Look to the little guys in this one. Definitely.
Showing posts with label Brady. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Brady. Show all posts
Monday, January 30, 2012
Tuesday, September 22, 2009
Mid-Beginning and Beginning of End
What a weekend for sports as football moved to the middle of the beginning and baseball moved toward the beginning of the end.
In pro football, it’s hard to decide whether the Giants or the Jets had the better game. They both won, of course, and while the Jets beat Brady and the Pats, something they surely haven’t made into a habit, the Giants had to come back still one more time to edge the Cowboys in their new digs with a game-ending drive that reminded some fans (i.e. me) of Eli’s Super Bowl clincher.
This guy was in San Francisco. I had the pleasure of watching Frank Gore score on two long runs of about 80 yards each for touchdowns in beating one of the would-be NFC West contenders, the Seattle Seahawks. The Raiduhs won too in a laugh-fest against the Chiefs, a game that had a lot of people in KC wondering whether their head coach has any thimbleful of a brain.
The Saints rolled again. The Steelers lost to the Bears. Arizona bounced back from their loss to the Niners with an execution of the Jaguars. Seattle lost its quarterback in much the same fashion as had Donovan McNabb and Number 5’s replacement passed for 391 yards but still managed to get his team shellacked..
Peyton Manning seemed to do it all by himself in the Colts win over the Fish and Houston, which looked vey bad against the Jets, beat the Titans in a shootout. All in all, the Week 2 action lent a little more information towards deciding which teams will be 2009 contenders.
The best thing about the Giants game might have been the emergence of Mario Manningham as their Number One receiver. Manningham seemingly was open all night and he was catching everything too, even the one he juggled in the end zone. The question of who’ll replace Plaxico may have been answered. (Condolences to Plax who got sentenced for the full two years today).
The G-Men didn’t escape unscathed though. Justin Tuck’s shoulder looked as if it might not be the same for weeks to come. They also seemed to get every break imaginable, which, while nice, doesn’t really bode well for the future. The running game really didn’t impress, Jacobs and Bradshaw managing just 95 yards, and their defense against the run was a little bit scary at times.
But they’re 2-0 and they’ve beaten two division opponents. While they haven’t beaten the Eagles yet, things don’t look too good for the Birds. So the G-Men are lookin’ good heading into Week 3. As they’re slated to play the Tampa Bay Bucs, whose pass defense has gone decidedly south, it should be one more week of big numbers for the passing game.
As I was in that city by the bay, I didn’t catch the Jets game, except for highlights. Most of those featured Tom Brady sliding and ducking and throwing before he would have liked. It’s a tribute to his savvy in the pocket that he didn’t get sacked, but the outcome was the same, hurried passes and a non-existent passing game by Patriot standards. And Revis shut down Randy Moss….not too shabby.
And yeah, the Pats didn’t have Welker, but it’s hard to say whether it would have made that much difference. In truth, I think it would have been a lot harder if Welker were able to play. And, in general, the Jets offense really didn’t do much against a Pats defense that featured 3 or 4 newbies that replaced some very big names in Boston.
So there is a decided buzz in New York for football. After the decidedly non-buzzing Mets season, and the recent decline of the Yankees, it’s nice to hear, especially for Jets fans, I imagine.
But the Jets per se are getting a little full of themselves, even though that whole defensive toughness thing that Ryan has instilled may require it, I suppose. But I’m not crazy about the talk. It’s Week friggin’ Two. And the usually strong but winless Titans are on tap. Let’s beat a few more teams before we get crazy.
But the weekend wasn’t all about football. The Yanks lost again and are just four games ahead in the loss column in the Division over the Red Sox. As they’re now in La-la Land playing (and losing to) the Angels, things might be looking up for Boston….finally.
The Yanks are down on their pitching too, especially as they’ve gone out of their way to screw up Joba, and they’re already driving Burnett to distraction. I’m looking forward to the Yanks losing two more to the Angels and host Boston only two games up in the loss column.
The Twinkies aren’t dead yet either, and, aside from losing a bet to my brother if they make the playoffs, the thought doesn’t really upset me. Detroit doesn’t send me. The Twins have the better lineup, I believe, and are a little more exciting to watch.
The Rangers are just about dead, which disturbs me. What a hard-luck team, losing Michael Young, their shortstop, and Josh Hamilton to injuries down the stretch. Losing six in a row to Seattle and the lowly A’s quite did the job.
Much to my dismay, in the National League, the Giants hit a road block and the Rockies are sailing. The Marlins are still in it too. So the last eleven games of the baseball season look to be very exciting.
My Metsies are still in the news too, if only to say what bad shape they’re in and point out how difficult it may be to right the ship. A painful topic maybe, but one that is at least interesting. I understand they’ll have about thirty million to spend if they stick to their current budget.
And, if the Wilpons want to hang on to their financial credibility, which has been questioned in some quarters, they’ll spend some money. And keep most of the core.
In pro football, it’s hard to decide whether the Giants or the Jets had the better game. They both won, of course, and while the Jets beat Brady and the Pats, something they surely haven’t made into a habit, the Giants had to come back still one more time to edge the Cowboys in their new digs with a game-ending drive that reminded some fans (i.e. me) of Eli’s Super Bowl clincher.
This guy was in San Francisco. I had the pleasure of watching Frank Gore score on two long runs of about 80 yards each for touchdowns in beating one of the would-be NFC West contenders, the Seattle Seahawks. The Raiduhs won too in a laugh-fest against the Chiefs, a game that had a lot of people in KC wondering whether their head coach has any thimbleful of a brain.
The Saints rolled again. The Steelers lost to the Bears. Arizona bounced back from their loss to the Niners with an execution of the Jaguars. Seattle lost its quarterback in much the same fashion as had Donovan McNabb and Number 5’s replacement passed for 391 yards but still managed to get his team shellacked..
Peyton Manning seemed to do it all by himself in the Colts win over the Fish and Houston, which looked vey bad against the Jets, beat the Titans in a shootout. All in all, the Week 2 action lent a little more information towards deciding which teams will be 2009 contenders.
The best thing about the Giants game might have been the emergence of Mario Manningham as their Number One receiver. Manningham seemingly was open all night and he was catching everything too, even the one he juggled in the end zone. The question of who’ll replace Plaxico may have been answered. (Condolences to Plax who got sentenced for the full two years today).
The G-Men didn’t escape unscathed though. Justin Tuck’s shoulder looked as if it might not be the same for weeks to come. They also seemed to get every break imaginable, which, while nice, doesn’t really bode well for the future. The running game really didn’t impress, Jacobs and Bradshaw managing just 95 yards, and their defense against the run was a little bit scary at times.
But they’re 2-0 and they’ve beaten two division opponents. While they haven’t beaten the Eagles yet, things don’t look too good for the Birds. So the G-Men are lookin’ good heading into Week 3. As they’re slated to play the Tampa Bay Bucs, whose pass defense has gone decidedly south, it should be one more week of big numbers for the passing game.
As I was in that city by the bay, I didn’t catch the Jets game, except for highlights. Most of those featured Tom Brady sliding and ducking and throwing before he would have liked. It’s a tribute to his savvy in the pocket that he didn’t get sacked, but the outcome was the same, hurried passes and a non-existent passing game by Patriot standards. And Revis shut down Randy Moss….not too shabby.
And yeah, the Pats didn’t have Welker, but it’s hard to say whether it would have made that much difference. In truth, I think it would have been a lot harder if Welker were able to play. And, in general, the Jets offense really didn’t do much against a Pats defense that featured 3 or 4 newbies that replaced some very big names in Boston.
So there is a decided buzz in New York for football. After the decidedly non-buzzing Mets season, and the recent decline of the Yankees, it’s nice to hear, especially for Jets fans, I imagine.
But the Jets per se are getting a little full of themselves, even though that whole defensive toughness thing that Ryan has instilled may require it, I suppose. But I’m not crazy about the talk. It’s Week friggin’ Two. And the usually strong but winless Titans are on tap. Let’s beat a few more teams before we get crazy.
But the weekend wasn’t all about football. The Yanks lost again and are just four games ahead in the loss column in the Division over the Red Sox. As they’re now in La-la Land playing (and losing to) the Angels, things might be looking up for Boston….finally.
The Yanks are down on their pitching too, especially as they’ve gone out of their way to screw up Joba, and they’re already driving Burnett to distraction. I’m looking forward to the Yanks losing two more to the Angels and host Boston only two games up in the loss column.
The Twinkies aren’t dead yet either, and, aside from losing a bet to my brother if they make the playoffs, the thought doesn’t really upset me. Detroit doesn’t send me. The Twins have the better lineup, I believe, and are a little more exciting to watch.
The Rangers are just about dead, which disturbs me. What a hard-luck team, losing Michael Young, their shortstop, and Josh Hamilton to injuries down the stretch. Losing six in a row to Seattle and the lowly A’s quite did the job.
Much to my dismay, in the National League, the Giants hit a road block and the Rockies are sailing. The Marlins are still in it too. So the last eleven games of the baseball season look to be very exciting.
My Metsies are still in the news too, if only to say what bad shape they’re in and point out how difficult it may be to right the ship. A painful topic maybe, but one that is at least interesting. I understand they’ll have about thirty million to spend if they stick to their current budget.
And, if the Wilpons want to hang on to their financial credibility, which has been questioned in some quarters, they’ll spend some money. And keep most of the core.
Tuesday, September 15, 2009
NFL - Perspective and Indicators
The Jets were electric and the Giants were boring but won anyway. Don’t get too giddy yet though, New York sports fans. I hate to be a party pooper but Houston is still too obviously Houston and the Skins, well, it’s hard to tell how bad they are. What’s missing in this first week of the season is perspective.
We’ll need to see a few more weeks of football before we can really begin to figure anything out. For example, the heretofore lowly 49ers upset the NFC Champion Arizona Cardinals. That’s a good indicator that they’ll be better and they have a good defense but did Arizona just have a bad game?
I just finished watching the Chargers look horrible while managing to just edge by the Raiders in Oakland. The Bills just absolutely threw one away against the lucky Pats. Are the Bills really that improved or are Brady and the Pats still rusty?
A really confusing game was the Bengals-Broncos match. I had expected the Bengals to be a possible playoff team this year while I thought the Broncos would be much better than everyone expects them to be, after the Cutler-Orton trade and the unhappy Brandon Marshall fiasco. But the Broncos won the game on a tipped ball in the last seconds in a very low-scoring game. What the heck does that mean?
Most Giants fans will remember the first three weeks of the 2007 Super Bowl season. They were marked by an atrocious Giants defense, a laughably bad defense. Then they magically transformed into something else. So, even when it seems pretty clear what you’re witnessing, it ain’t necessarily so.
But there are indicators. In the Jets case, all the indicators are good. The offensive line was dominant, the receivers aren’t that bad after all, and Mark Sanchez found a lot of them with no problem at all. (Well, there was that one pick but who’s counting). But how bad is that Houston secondary? Only time will tell.
The Giants indicators were good too but they certainly weren’t electric, especially on offense. While I know they played it smart, as they should, it was pretty much a yawner, except for that pass rush. The Umenyiora forced fumble and return for a TD was really good to see but then that was offset by the Skins fake punt for a TD. Does that mean anything? Will that be an isolated incident?
The Cowboys beat the Bucs by a good margin but their run defense looked kind of shaky, especially early. And Romo looked fantastic on those TD’s to Williams and Crayton but how bad was the Bucs pass defense? It looked pretty bad to me. And is Cadillac Williams really that tough? Hard to say, as Derrick Ward (remember him?) looked pretty good too.
We’ll get a whole giant helpingful of perspective next week though, as the G-Men face off against the Boyz. Early indications are that it will be a war. Only after that game will we be able to see just how good the Giants defensive front really is.
Then there’re the injuries, really season-shaking injuries, as the Bears lost Brian Urlacher and the Eagles lost McNabb for at least a couple of weeks. (I’ve had a cracked rib myself and my guess would be three weeks). Can the Eagles win with Kolb? Can the Bears survive without Urlacher? (My guess would be no).
Most distressing for me was the Vikings game against Mangini’s Browns. Adrian Peterson ran wild in the second half and Brett Favre looked fine, much to my dismay. I was kind of hoping for some “look-out” blocks in the Vikings offensive line and some bone-jarring sacks of Favre but it just never happened.
But are the Vikings really that good? Gimme a break, that was the horrible Browns on the other side of the field. Drew Brees threw 6 TD passes but, come on!! That was the winless Lions the Saints were shellacking.
The point is made, I think. The only thing that’s sure is that you’d better not place too much faith on what you thought you saw in Week 1. The eyes can be deceiving, especially in the wild and wacky world of the National Football League.
Football is more unpredictable than other sports, if just because of emotion. It’s a game dominated by emotion. And injuries. And both of those things are fairly unpredictable, even if you can almost guarantee that certain players will get hurt sometime in the course of the year, like McNabb, for example.
The Eagles at least have an answer for McNabb. And, because they weren’t too sure about either Kolb or Vick, eventually, they made a very smart move in picking up Jeff Garcia, who was very reliable in backing up McNabb a couple of years ago. The Eagles seem pretty serious about their chances of winning it all this year. All indications would seem to point in that direction anyway.
Aside from injuries, however, there is that emotion that makes the difference between winning and losing. It seems to come from the top too, from the ownership and the management and the quarterback. For examples, I’ll give you Dan Rooney and Rex Ryan and Tom Brady, or even Eli Manning, in a pinch.
Dan Rooney’s Steelers are always good, they always seem to play with passion and they always seem to have a good coach who believes in fundamentals and effort. Rex Ryan’s defenses always played with emotion and now his team, the Jets, seem to have been touched by his magic wand. And Brady just won’t lose (except when he’s on his back a lot), as he proved again last night.
So I’m psyched, definitely, for an eventful season. The Jets play the Patriots, the Giants play the Cowboys and all will be right with the world. I can forget about the unhappy Mets season, the incredible ugliness at the U.S. Open, and look forward to two tough teams in town. Now.
We’ll need to see a few more weeks of football before we can really begin to figure anything out. For example, the heretofore lowly 49ers upset the NFC Champion Arizona Cardinals. That’s a good indicator that they’ll be better and they have a good defense but did Arizona just have a bad game?
I just finished watching the Chargers look horrible while managing to just edge by the Raiders in Oakland. The Bills just absolutely threw one away against the lucky Pats. Are the Bills really that improved or are Brady and the Pats still rusty?
A really confusing game was the Bengals-Broncos match. I had expected the Bengals to be a possible playoff team this year while I thought the Broncos would be much better than everyone expects them to be, after the Cutler-Orton trade and the unhappy Brandon Marshall fiasco. But the Broncos won the game on a tipped ball in the last seconds in a very low-scoring game. What the heck does that mean?
Most Giants fans will remember the first three weeks of the 2007 Super Bowl season. They were marked by an atrocious Giants defense, a laughably bad defense. Then they magically transformed into something else. So, even when it seems pretty clear what you’re witnessing, it ain’t necessarily so.
But there are indicators. In the Jets case, all the indicators are good. The offensive line was dominant, the receivers aren’t that bad after all, and Mark Sanchez found a lot of them with no problem at all. (Well, there was that one pick but who’s counting). But how bad is that Houston secondary? Only time will tell.
The Giants indicators were good too but they certainly weren’t electric, especially on offense. While I know they played it smart, as they should, it was pretty much a yawner, except for that pass rush. The Umenyiora forced fumble and return for a TD was really good to see but then that was offset by the Skins fake punt for a TD. Does that mean anything? Will that be an isolated incident?
The Cowboys beat the Bucs by a good margin but their run defense looked kind of shaky, especially early. And Romo looked fantastic on those TD’s to Williams and Crayton but how bad was the Bucs pass defense? It looked pretty bad to me. And is Cadillac Williams really that tough? Hard to say, as Derrick Ward (remember him?) looked pretty good too.
We’ll get a whole giant helpingful of perspective next week though, as the G-Men face off against the Boyz. Early indications are that it will be a war. Only after that game will we be able to see just how good the Giants defensive front really is.
Then there’re the injuries, really season-shaking injuries, as the Bears lost Brian Urlacher and the Eagles lost McNabb for at least a couple of weeks. (I’ve had a cracked rib myself and my guess would be three weeks). Can the Eagles win with Kolb? Can the Bears survive without Urlacher? (My guess would be no).
Most distressing for me was the Vikings game against Mangini’s Browns. Adrian Peterson ran wild in the second half and Brett Favre looked fine, much to my dismay. I was kind of hoping for some “look-out” blocks in the Vikings offensive line and some bone-jarring sacks of Favre but it just never happened.
But are the Vikings really that good? Gimme a break, that was the horrible Browns on the other side of the field. Drew Brees threw 6 TD passes but, come on!! That was the winless Lions the Saints were shellacking.
The point is made, I think. The only thing that’s sure is that you’d better not place too much faith on what you thought you saw in Week 1. The eyes can be deceiving, especially in the wild and wacky world of the National Football League.
Football is more unpredictable than other sports, if just because of emotion. It’s a game dominated by emotion. And injuries. And both of those things are fairly unpredictable, even if you can almost guarantee that certain players will get hurt sometime in the course of the year, like McNabb, for example.
The Eagles at least have an answer for McNabb. And, because they weren’t too sure about either Kolb or Vick, eventually, they made a very smart move in picking up Jeff Garcia, who was very reliable in backing up McNabb a couple of years ago. The Eagles seem pretty serious about their chances of winning it all this year. All indications would seem to point in that direction anyway.
Aside from injuries, however, there is that emotion that makes the difference between winning and losing. It seems to come from the top too, from the ownership and the management and the quarterback. For examples, I’ll give you Dan Rooney and Rex Ryan and Tom Brady, or even Eli Manning, in a pinch.
Dan Rooney’s Steelers are always good, they always seem to play with passion and they always seem to have a good coach who believes in fundamentals and effort. Rex Ryan’s defenses always played with emotion and now his team, the Jets, seem to have been touched by his magic wand. And Brady just won’t lose (except when he’s on his back a lot), as he proved again last night.
So I’m psyched, definitely, for an eventful season. The Jets play the Patriots, the Giants play the Cowboys and all will be right with the world. I can forget about the unhappy Mets season, the incredible ugliness at the U.S. Open, and look forward to two tough teams in town. Now.
Thursday, August 27, 2009
Who's the Fantasy Number 1 ?
Drew Brees? Peyton Manning? Tom Brady? Aaron Rodgers? All week, and even longer), these names and others keep buzzing by my head. Yesterday, while fixing the roof and cleaning the gutters, the question was all-consuming, who should be by number 1 overall pick in our 2009 Squander Fantasy Football League?
Now, some of you are probably asking yourself why I’m focusing on quarterbacks. What about the consensus #1 pick, Adrian Peterson, the great Minnesota running back? There are some great runners out there, and aren’t you concerned about the shortage of running backs, the traditional approach of fantasy pundits for the last ten years or so?
Well, first you have to understand that, while most fantasy leagues award passing TD’s with just 4 points, which tends to equalize a quarterback’s value with running backs and receivers, Squander Football insists on awarding a TD with 6 points; a touchdown is a touchdown, right?
Well, I’m ok with that notion, what the hell, we can come to grips with anything, this league doesn’t have any duffers, these guys have been doing this for years and years. The commissioner, my brother John, was an old Strat player and, many times you could find him happily playing it down the basement when he was maybe 6 years old.
John disagrees, by the way, with my theory that this points system should humongously skew the draft towards qb’s. The deciding factors should be scarcity at individual spots and point increments between the leaders and those following.
He maintains that the overall points difference between Drew Brees, the top fantasy scorer last year, and the rest of the qb’s, doesn’t exceed that of the top running back, Peterson, from the rest of the running backs. And that may even be so, I won’t be listing the stats here, too boring, but what happens when you list the all the available players and sort by total fantasy points?
Of the first 15 players of all types last year, a running back doesn’t appear until number 9 on the list. And it isn’t Peterson, it’s DeAngelo Williams, the Carolina RB back that tore up the league last year. Of the next 6 spots, 4 more are qb’s before you get to 15, Adrian Peterson’s rank. The points differential between Drew Brees and Adrian Peterson was 361-233 or a whopping 128 points. Even spread out over 16 weeks, that’s a little more than a TD per week. The top back scored 272 points, still 89 less or about 5 points per week.
In a snake draft as in Squander, the number 1 picker’s next pick doesn’t occur until pick 24. So, taking a qb, I’d get 360 for Brees and then be faced with selections worth 210 points. That gives me 360 plus 210 or 570 points. Taking a running back first, I’d get 270 for the back and then probably the 10th or 11th best qb, currently Eli Manning, at 231 points. That’s basically 500 points overall. So I pick up 70 points overall by taking a QB first. I don’t think there’s any two ways about it.
And furthermore, I’d have Brees and either a top wide receiver or a middling running back versus having Peterson and Eli Manning. While I really like Eli, he can’t be a top fantasy qb playing for Coughlin and the Giants, a shame really, but there you have it. Imagine Brees and a top receiver, maybe even a Larry Fitzgerald or Randy Moss. Or, I’d have Brees and a middling running back, say a Ryan Grant or Ronnie Brown.
It doesn’t really matter, running back or wide receiver, as I also get pick 25 in a snake draft. So the real choice is how to combine the picks for maximum advantage. My next pick wouldn’t occur until pick 49 (and then 50), at which point the talent is significantly thinned. A quick look at the list shows players such as Roy Williams and Larry Johnson there, not too shabby.
But the significant thing is that statistical edge going into the third round if I take a qb first; it doesn’t even have to be Brees, it could be Philip Rivers or Adam Rodgers who both scored about 335 fantasy points on the season, still way ahead of the top-rated running back at 270.
There are flaws to this approach, of course, the biggest one being the fact that what happened last year will not necessarily happen this year. Statistically, it makes more sense to look at career performances among the qb’s, which of course would add to the luster of guys like Brady, who was hurt last year, and Peyton Manning, the only Manning in town, so to speak, when you’re talking fantasy.
Then there is aesthetics, the art of the game and my enjoyment of the season. There is also the fun of the draft itself to keep in mind. I’d get a kick out of surprising the numbers 2 through 5 pickers, and maybe even a psychological advantage. For example, I could take Brady and really discomfit Snake Eyes, picking at number 2.
There is embarrassment to consider too, but I don’t really care about that so much. Last year, for example, I took Tony Romo with the number 1, an unconventional choice that drew some jeers but I was never really sorry, this despite Romo’s missing of a few weeks and then returning at only about 70%. Romo is a lot of fun to watch and you never know what starlet he’ll be bringing to the stadium.
And, speaking of last year, though I lost every game Romo didn’t start (backup Delhomme was truly horrible), I made the playoffs and won at least once in the playoffs, even though I needed a savvy running back pickup to muddle through.
But running backs will be a secondary consideration. There are too many good ones, too many split backfields and the wildcat too. The quarterback stirs the drink in Squander.
Now, some of you are probably asking yourself why I’m focusing on quarterbacks. What about the consensus #1 pick, Adrian Peterson, the great Minnesota running back? There are some great runners out there, and aren’t you concerned about the shortage of running backs, the traditional approach of fantasy pundits for the last ten years or so?
Well, first you have to understand that, while most fantasy leagues award passing TD’s with just 4 points, which tends to equalize a quarterback’s value with running backs and receivers, Squander Football insists on awarding a TD with 6 points; a touchdown is a touchdown, right?
Well, I’m ok with that notion, what the hell, we can come to grips with anything, this league doesn’t have any duffers, these guys have been doing this for years and years. The commissioner, my brother John, was an old Strat player and, many times you could find him happily playing it down the basement when he was maybe 6 years old.
John disagrees, by the way, with my theory that this points system should humongously skew the draft towards qb’s. The deciding factors should be scarcity at individual spots and point increments between the leaders and those following.
He maintains that the overall points difference between Drew Brees, the top fantasy scorer last year, and the rest of the qb’s, doesn’t exceed that of the top running back, Peterson, from the rest of the running backs. And that may even be so, I won’t be listing the stats here, too boring, but what happens when you list the all the available players and sort by total fantasy points?
Of the first 15 players of all types last year, a running back doesn’t appear until number 9 on the list. And it isn’t Peterson, it’s DeAngelo Williams, the Carolina RB back that tore up the league last year. Of the next 6 spots, 4 more are qb’s before you get to 15, Adrian Peterson’s rank. The points differential between Drew Brees and Adrian Peterson was 361-233 or a whopping 128 points. Even spread out over 16 weeks, that’s a little more than a TD per week. The top back scored 272 points, still 89 less or about 5 points per week.
In a snake draft as in Squander, the number 1 picker’s next pick doesn’t occur until pick 24. So, taking a qb, I’d get 360 for Brees and then be faced with selections worth 210 points. That gives me 360 plus 210 or 570 points. Taking a running back first, I’d get 270 for the back and then probably the 10th or 11th best qb, currently Eli Manning, at 231 points. That’s basically 500 points overall. So I pick up 70 points overall by taking a QB first. I don’t think there’s any two ways about it.
And furthermore, I’d have Brees and either a top wide receiver or a middling running back versus having Peterson and Eli Manning. While I really like Eli, he can’t be a top fantasy qb playing for Coughlin and the Giants, a shame really, but there you have it. Imagine Brees and a top receiver, maybe even a Larry Fitzgerald or Randy Moss. Or, I’d have Brees and a middling running back, say a Ryan Grant or Ronnie Brown.
It doesn’t really matter, running back or wide receiver, as I also get pick 25 in a snake draft. So the real choice is how to combine the picks for maximum advantage. My next pick wouldn’t occur until pick 49 (and then 50), at which point the talent is significantly thinned. A quick look at the list shows players such as Roy Williams and Larry Johnson there, not too shabby.
But the significant thing is that statistical edge going into the third round if I take a qb first; it doesn’t even have to be Brees, it could be Philip Rivers or Adam Rodgers who both scored about 335 fantasy points on the season, still way ahead of the top-rated running back at 270.
There are flaws to this approach, of course, the biggest one being the fact that what happened last year will not necessarily happen this year. Statistically, it makes more sense to look at career performances among the qb’s, which of course would add to the luster of guys like Brady, who was hurt last year, and Peyton Manning, the only Manning in town, so to speak, when you’re talking fantasy.
Then there is aesthetics, the art of the game and my enjoyment of the season. There is also the fun of the draft itself to keep in mind. I’d get a kick out of surprising the numbers 2 through 5 pickers, and maybe even a psychological advantage. For example, I could take Brady and really discomfit Snake Eyes, picking at number 2.
There is embarrassment to consider too, but I don’t really care about that so much. Last year, for example, I took Tony Romo with the number 1, an unconventional choice that drew some jeers but I was never really sorry, this despite Romo’s missing of a few weeks and then returning at only about 70%. Romo is a lot of fun to watch and you never know what starlet he’ll be bringing to the stadium.
And, speaking of last year, though I lost every game Romo didn’t start (backup Delhomme was truly horrible), I made the playoffs and won at least once in the playoffs, even though I needed a savvy running back pickup to muddle through.
But running backs will be a secondary consideration. There are too many good ones, too many split backfields and the wildcat too. The quarterback stirs the drink in Squander.
Wednesday, December 12, 2007
Hmm, Pats vs. Jets...
Looks like everybody's expecting the Patriots to completely drub the Jets. Our local heroes lost 38-14 to them in their season debut, and that was with Pennington out there. Of course, they had no offensive line to speak of at that time. And Darrell Revis wasn't really playing yet. And you could run the ball all day long against their defense then. Now? I don't think so. They got that big Michigan fella at linebacker now. You know...what's's name?....
And of course there's the retribution factor, Belichick will pound the upstart Mangini and his pitiful, woeful band of wannabe's....
I don't know about you, but all that stuff would make me mad...and look at the opportunity....knock off the undefeated and obnoxious Pats...and get a couple of shots at Brady...and Moss...(I'd be foaming at the mouth).
Look for a close game.....at least..
And of course there's the retribution factor, Belichick will pound the upstart Mangini and his pitiful, woeful band of wannabe's....
I don't know about you, but all that stuff would make me mad...and look at the opportunity....knock off the undefeated and obnoxious Pats...and get a couple of shots at Brady...and Moss...(I'd be foaming at the mouth).
Look for a close game.....at least..
Wednesday, December 5, 2007
Coaches Add That Sumthin'....or Don't
It was Monday afternoon. I was trying to figure out whether Tom Brady, that marvel of a Patriots quarterback, would score 25 or more fantasy points that night. In looking at the past games, I determined that Brady had missed the "25" mark only once, that performance just last week against the Philadelphia Eagles. The following is an excerpt from my actual league posting:
hey ramsy, just fyi, and as you still have the BAL DEF on your roster, you might already know this and are just being coy, (yeah, that's right, coy), the Ravens have everybody back on D tonight except for Trevor Pryce, their DE.
McAllister, Rolle, Ed Reed, Landry are all in line.
If the Ravens play conservatively on offense and don't fumble, and play like madmen on Def like the Eagles did, it could even get interesting.
It surely did prove to be interesting, the game turning, I thought, on Billick's time-out.
Why is it always the Belichicks who have their full complement of timeouts at the end of the game? And it’s always the Billicks who call timeout for any reason whatsoever. I grow weary of these high-profile coaches who lose games for their teams. Joe Gibbs, Mike Shanahan, Mike Martz, Brian Schottenheimer of the Jets to name just a few.
But none can match KC’s Herm Edwards. In the Oakland game, withKansas City
Of course, some decisions are very tough. The really good coaches, though, seem to transcend the moment. With confidence in their players, with a total awareness of the situation and the opponent, they prevail; they live to fight another day.
hey ramsy, just fyi, and as you still have the BAL DEF on your roster, you might already know this and are just being coy, (yeah, that's right, coy), the Ravens have everybody back on D tonight except for Trevor Pryce, their DE.
McAllister, Rolle, Ed Reed, Landry are all in line.
If the Ravens play conservatively on offense and don't fumble, and play like madmen on Def like the Eagles did, it could even get interesting.
It surely did prove to be interesting, the game turning, I thought, on Billick's time-out.
Why is it always the Belichicks who have their full complement of timeouts at the end of the game? And it’s always the Billicks who call timeout for any reason whatsoever. I grow weary of these high-profile coaches who lose games for their teams. Joe Gibbs, Mike Shanahan, Mike Martz, Brian Schottenheimer of the Jets to name just a few.
But none can match KC’s Herm Edwards. In the Oakland game, with
Of course, some decisions are very tough. The really good coaches, though, seem to transcend the moment. With confidence in their players, with a total awareness of the situation and the opponent, they prevail; they live to fight another day.
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