Showing posts with label football. Show all posts
Showing posts with label football. Show all posts

Thursday, September 1, 2011

A Good Draft, a Bad Irene

Imagine if you never had to see Mike Pelfrey pitch again……in your entire lifetime….Pelfrey-free….aahh.

But this won’t be about the Mets. After all, what can anybody really say? Just, please God, don’t make me watch any more Mets wheel-plays. And the latest highlight of the Mets fortunes was Jason Bay’s arm-less lunge for home plate with his arms pinned to the ground under his body.

The Mets won that one so Jason gets a pass, but it was the most ridiculous slide I’ve ever seen.

Enough said about the Mets. Even if David Wright had a really nice night and Tejada made the tough play he had to make to close the game out. It was like old times. Reyes was back smiling and Wright was playin’ energized and Duda came through with a nicely- measured swing to win it. I could really get used to watching baseball like that.

I just watched a replay of the Jets-Giants exhibition game from Monday night. I thought it was bad the first time around. It was worse in Round 2. The Giants, who lost 17-3 to their Green rivals, looked ordinary at best. The Jets were just a little more impressive.

If it seemed to you that Eli Manning had no clue as to where his receivers might be going, join the club. If it seemed to you as if nobody ever came open for him, you’re not alone.

The Jets actually looked better defensively to me than they were last year. The offense needs a little work right now but that could be said of a number of teams. They can still run the ball, especially if Shonn Green stays healthy. Once again, their only fly in the ointment might be New England. The Pats will be a huge fly to swallow.

But most people here are just getting over the wrath of Irene, the raging waters, the dump from the sky. Trees down, power lines down, rivers swelling, politicians swaggering, and Weather-Channel scaring the life out of you every step of the way, but especially before the event . Irene was a big fat girl wagging her fatt butt all the way up the Jersey coast.

But I stood ready for her, pump ready for the onslaught. Around 2 PM on Saturday, the pumping began. But its little 1/6 HP heart couldn’t keep the waters below the 18” retaining wall between the garage and house proper, could it? Well, it pumped its little brains out for about 27 hours straight and saved our butts from a watery ending.

The power held up for me. There’ll be a generator in my future. The worst wind I got was as Irene was dragging her disgusting ass out of here. She was worn out by then, all that torrential rain for all that time having dragged the venom out of her. Her home invasion was finally over by mid-afternoon Sunday.

I’m thinking about giving my pump a name.

But right before the deluge, that would be Saturday morning, we had our fantasy draft. That was fun. Once again, I tested my QB-first strategy with a guy everybody seems to have forgotten about, Drew Brees. He had no running game last year at all and still managed to have himself a nice year.

But it’s all about risk. The first pick should offer the highest risk-reward. If running backs get hurt waaay more often than QB’s, how can you pick a RB first? There were four who loomed over the rest of the ball-carriers, Arian Foster, Adrian Peterson, Chris Johnson and, arguably, Rrrray Rrrrrice. In our new world of two-back systems, you could throw a blanket around many of the rest.

I should point out too that passing TD’s count as much as running TD’s in our league and QB’s fantasy scores vs. RB scores are always a lot higher overall.

Then there is the matter of variability, week to week adherence to a standard. Drew Brees is like a machine. The opponent doesn’t matter that much, he’ll score against Green Bay and Buffalo too. He won’t be a target like Vick or slide around a lot like Rodgers or have a Manning neck or a Brady benching in Week 13.

He’ll just be cruisin’ this year, handin’ the rock to Mark Ingram, making the play-action go. And there’ll be the same guys on the other end, Colston and Meachem and Henderson and Mohr. His line is good, his coach is smart and they like to score points….every week.

I could have had RB Jamaal Charles, as things turned out. He was one of the four leading the pack and perhaps my favorite among those. But will all of those four guys finish the season? Would Jamaal Charles have been the odd man out?

Anyway, my second pick was 21 overall and I still didn’t particularly like any of the running backs there so why not grab a top wideout? And if you could get yourself a Giant at the same time, why wouldn’t Hakeem Nicks be the logical choice? Then at 28 overall, there was Jersey-boy Miles Austin edging out DeSean Jackson and the possibly resurgent JET Shonn Greene. I see lots of catches in my future.

A lot of nice players disappeared from the board before my next pick. Fearing a run on tight ends, I jumped on Jermichael Finley, Rodgers’s favorite target most Green Bay days. I could finally select a running back so I jumped on Knowshon Moreno of the Broncos, who does a little bit of everything pretty much all by himself in Denver.

I may have actually taken a risk with Julio Jones, Atlanta’s multi-pick alleged wonder, but I still wasn’t sold on any particular RB. I did get a nice reliable guy in Fred Jackson of Buffalo, who got them his thousand yards last year and seems to be the star in lowly Buffalo. And, um, circle the wagons.

And Detroit will be my defense. Good Luck.

Tuesday, November 16, 2010

Uncertainty the Only Certainty

Now I know I’m a baseball fan. It’s all I can do to muster any enthusiasm for football anymore. It’s totally unpredictable.

This week it was Dallas and Buffalo who came back from the dead. Teams I expected to come back from the dead didn’t. There was the dreadful Minnesota totally striking out against the Bears, a real juggernaut. There was Brett Favre running around, getting hit, dropping the ball, then running around, throwing on the run, getting intercepted. And then there was Washington on Monday night, Washington, I thought, with that defense that gives up yards but not points. Surely they’ll stop Michael Vick. You know what happened there.

And then there were the “good” teams, such as the Steelers, getting lambasted by Tom Brady, and our Giants, ballyhooed all week for being the best team in the NFC, decidedly NOT covering the best wide receivers in the game, Dez Bryant and Miles Austin, Roy Williams and Jason Witten. Oh, and they didn’t get to the quarterback either. After all, it was only Jon Kitna. You know how that one turned out.

Of course I belong to one of those Yahoo football groups, making picks for each week’s games, just the winners, no point spreads to make things more difficult. This year, the spreads aren’t necessary. Anything can happen and usually will, but only when you’re absolutely SURE of a very different outcome.

Being that I’m one of those analytical types, I need to put this uncertainty into some kind of box. Surely there are underlying reasons for it. I’ve got it narrowed down to two basic factors. Coaches and players. Not bad, huh?

The Cowboys changed coaches after losing became a way of life. Boom! They won, convincingly. You wondered how they could have looked so abysmal all those other weeks. You wonder if they’ll go undefeated for the rest of the season. You wondered how they ever won with a lily-livered coach. You wondered why it took Jerry Jones so long to act. You wonder much the same thing about that Bengals coach, Marvin Lewis. What’s the owner thinking? Oops, there’s another factor, owners.

A subset of owners might be stadiums, new stadiums, and seat licenses, especially unsold seat licenses, to be exact. The Jets sure stocked up on players this year, LaDainian and Santonio and the rest. The Giants actually went out and bought a secondary, not that it looked that way last Sunday. Of course, Kitna had all day to throw. Jerry Jones too had that gigantic edifice in Big D built to accommodate all those rabid Cowboys fans. He figured they had as much talent as they needed, so he didn’t need to go crazy, especially on defense. He figured, as Wade did, that any sorry bunch of bodies could comprise a well thought out system of defense. Heh-heh.

Another factor seems to be the betting line itself. Maybe it’s the Internet betting that’s made the spread more important. Those heavy favorites just never seem to pan out, except when they do, once again totally inexplicably.

Let’s recap. There’re coaches and players and owners and stadiums and the betting line itself. Oh, and maybe the fact that there’s a whole TV network dedicated to football, 24/7, and endless analysis, if you could call it that, of everything you ever wanted to know about, well, mostly about Brett Favre, or Chad Ochochinco or T.O. Oh yeah, there’re those reality shows too, starring the aforementioned, of course, but there are others too, like for Shawn Merriman, I understand.

Of course there’s ESPN too, not that I watch those guys anymore. I wonder, does anybody? I mean…why? There’s a baseball channel and a football channel and teams with their own channels. There’re even channels for tennis and golf, for Pete’s sake. (Pete’s a bigtime golfer and tennis enthusiast, take my word for it). If it’s a sport, chances are it’s got its own channel. Horseracing and soccer, of course, and even fishing and fitness and wildlife and, omigosh, as I write this, there’s a woman getting into dressage. Honestly.

Maybe I should just stop trying to pick game winners and just concentrate on my fantasy team. There’s quite enough uncertainty there alone. Replacing Drew Brees on his bye week with Brett Favre was my brain-fart of the season. And to compound that mistake, I had dumped Jon Kitna for him. After all, he’d be facing those ferocious G-Men. And surely Jahvid Best would finally start producing against the lowly Bills, right? Surely he’d be a better start than Miles Austin, who never did establish any kind of rapport with Kitna. Romo used to love him but not Kitna. He loved Dez Bryant. And besides, they were facing the feared G-Men.

Luckily for me, my other players played great, Percy Harvin and Ahmad Bradshaw, Brandon Lloyd and Knowshow Moreno. But the really fortunate thing was my opponent’s decision to take his chances that his running back, Clinton Portis, listed as questionable all week, would actually play on Monday night, even if Skins coach Mike Shanahan had been saying for days that he wouldn’t play. After all, isn’t it true that Shanahan’s the biggest phony in the NFL, except for Belichick maybe? Shanahan saying he wouldn’t play only kind of guaranteed that he would. Of course we know how that one turned out.

Oh yeah, one more factor, a big one, injuries, even after you figure out the enigmatic code that basically says “doubtful” players are the only ones who won’t play. “Questionable” guys figure significantly in their team’s fortunes week after week, hence my opponent’s hesitation to go with anyone else in that spot. (Yeah, he would have had to drop a player with a bye to replace him but still…).

There are just so few things you can count on. That uncertainty might be the biggest winning factor of them all, the only thing on which you can rely.

I’ll take baseball anytime, and especially those Mets.

Friday, September 10, 2010

More On Mets (Get It?)

Okay, you’re expecting some Mets news here so here it is…..the Mets still stink. They are a little more fun to watch though. And taking 2 of 3 from Washington sure beats losing another series. Of course, it hardly matters now.
Thank God they’re not still pretending to contend. Now we can watch all the rejects in their farm system. Of course, the new guys are outperforming anything the regulars ever put together. So what does that tell us?
Bad things can happen when a team sits on its laurels, watching every significant deadline for adding players go by with barely a twitch. A flower grows way faster than the Mets moved this year.
Of course, that can only mean the ownership, aka Jeff Wilpon, has totally lost faith in the general manager. At this point, that can only be a good thing. Omar Minaya is a personable fellow but he hasn’t done much towards fashioning a championship team. I think a break is needed for Mr. Minaya. Have you ever considered fishing, Omar?
Let’s recap, 2006 was a tough year, 2007 was even tougher, 2008 was incredibly bad, 2009 was a hard luck year and 2010 has been another tough year. Hmmm, not good. There are a lot of teams that have done more with less.
Minaya does have time left on his contract though. If Wilpon hasn’t been in a spending mode, to say the very least, he may not jump at the idea of firing Minaya, who he seems to like despite his failures. There are some signs though that the two of them are already planning for next year, even if Minaya may not be the ultimate recipient of the benefits of the plan.
Here’s my take on the Beltran, Perez and Castillo flap (they didn’t attend a hospital team visit). Wilpon is greasing the skids for getting rid of all of them. If he can turn the fans against these guys, principally Beltran as it’d be difficult to suggest any Mets fans like crazy selfish Ollie or poor picked-on Luis Castillo, it’ll be easier to trade him for a lesser player, and let’s face it, these are the Mets, they’ll inevitably make a bad deal.
I’ve put my request in for a second baseman. I think this Tejada little guy is really slick with the glove, and I like watching him in the field, but he’s really got to show me something the rest of the way. I hope he does. If you’re going to have a weak spot in the lineup, it may as well be at second base.
Some team will want Beltran though, especially if they can negotiate a lesser rate for his services. Carlos Beltran, minus the attitude, would be a hell of an asset for any team. He’s still the most feared batter in the Mets lineup. Of course, that’s saying very little.
It’s fun to speculate though. The Mets could use a pitcher for sure, even if Dickey and Niese continue their winning ways. Who knows what Mike Pelfrey can do going forward? Not even Mike could tell you. But he is a hard-throwing right hander, as is the new kid Mejia. They probably mix things up pretty well for the two left-handers, Santana and Niese, and then of course, there’s the knuckleballer Dickey, who doesn’t even resemble other knuckleballers!
The Mets aren’t that far off really from some respectability. The bullpen isn’t really that bad with Takahashi and Purcell and perpetual Pedro out there. You can have the other two guys. So they need a couple of relievers on the pitching side of things.
On the hitting side of the ledger, the current depth chart shows a left field of Lucas Duda and Chris Carter, a ridiculously weak spot. Carter’s a pinch-hitter. Who knows about Duda? But Jason Bay will be back and maybe he’ll return to some semblance of a power hitter. In center, there’s Beltran or his replacement, In right field there is Pagan, not too shabby.
Then there will be an infield of Ike Davis at first, Tejada at second, Reyes at short and David Wright at third base. Davis will hit better next year for sure and he hasn’t been so very bad this year either. I don’t care for his backup though, this Hessman fellow. A nice big guy who can hit for power would be a nice addition.
It looks as if Josh Thole is a keeper at the catcher position too. He seems to be a tough out when the pressure is on. The Mets don’t have a lot of talent in that area….that’s for sure. Maybe Beltran’s replacement can at least be a guy with good stats for hitting with runners in scoring position. And maybe Bay will start pulling his weight.
The Mets could use a good utility guy in the infield too, a Ryan Theriot type guy who can play second base or shortstop. Even better would be a power-hitting second baseman/shortstop, even one that would just backup Tejada on one of his prolonged slumps, or one of Reyes’s prolonged injuries. How about Theriot and that magnificent Jose Uribe?
When you think about it, what makes the difference between the Mets and the Padres right now? And the Padres, despite their recent slump, may still outlast everybody else in the NL West. The Phillies and the Braves, though, would still be the class of the division unless Bay and Pagan and Wright and Reyes and even Ike Davis all hit and play to their capabilities.
Okay, enough about the Mets. It is, after all, football season. The Giants open up against the Panthers. They’ll lose, but by a less embarrassing score than last year, when the Panthers killed them 41-9 in the last game played at the old Giants Stadium. Look for Carolina to take the opener, but only by a 27-24 score.
Those crazy Jets finally signed Revis. But that doesn’t mean they’ll win Monday. Ravens 17-13.

Thursday, September 2, 2010

Mets? Who Cares?

It’s hard to even discuss the Mets at all these hot dreary days but when other distractions are so much more fun than watching weak groundouts and strikeouts, it’s really impossible. Why concentrate on a minor league team?

Besides, football’s starting, the baseball races for playoff spots are heating up, there’s a hurricane coming and the U.S. Open is proceeding along without Serena just fine, thank you.

Fantasy Football dominates my attentions early on in the football season every year as my fan interest in the Giants and Jets isn’t revved up yet. My draft was this past Sunday and I’m as happy as the proverbial pig in the poke, as hopeful as Bob Baffert on Derby Day. With Drew Brees as my quarterback, all other considerations become secondary.

And Drew will have Miles Austin to throw to on my scrappy Dem Crabs team. That’s on one side, the other will be manned by another speedster with hands, a fellow named Percy Harvin, as in Favre to Harvin on a Vikings team missing Sidney Rice as a big secondary target. Will that help his numbers?

If Harvin can’t face all those double-teams, I can only throw in the likes of Bobby Meacham, whose numbers can only improve this year as he competes with Marques Colston and Devery Henderson for playing time. Or, if Bobby should falter, there’s Indi’s Austin Collie to steady those numbers, like one of those center horses on Ben Hur’s chariot team.

Running backs were hard to come by once again for me this year, having gone for a qb with my first pick, but Denver’s Knowshon Moreno is one of those young backs who figure to get even more carries in his second year for the Broncos. The Lions’ first round draft choice, Jahvid Best, looked terrific in one exhibition I’ve seen, and the Lions will put points on the board this year, having beefed up that offense to protect Calvin Johnson. Besides, if the Lions were so stuck on the likes of Kevin Smith as their main horse in the running game, they wouldn’t have wasted a first-rounder on good ol’ Mr. Best.

At tight end, it would be difficult to be happier. San Francisco’s Vernon Davis is one of the leaders of that Niners offense and Alex Smith seems to really like throwing his way, to the tune of 965 yards and 13 touchdowns last year. If he and wideout Michael Crabtree don’t kill each other on the practice field, they should both enjoy good seasons.

Managing to grab the Ravens as my defensive unit was fortuitous as that unit has been a top unit year after year for a lot of years. And the Bengals figure to continue to surprise in 2010 after showing up big last year.

If Brees should go down, and I hate to even think it could happen, I nabbed Donovan McNabb as his backup at quarterback. McNabb didn’t waste any time twisting his ankle but should return soon to an offense that has potential, what with Clinton Portis hitting the line hard and Santana Moss returning to prominence now that Jason Campbell is gone, along with his slow reactions to just about every situation. I feel for the Raiders who seem to think he’ll revive their game.

But one of the best features of this formidable fantasy squad of Crawlers is the reserve squad at running back. For a Giants fan, playing both Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs at running back sure seems like a relatively riskless running alternative, not to mention what positive effect it’ll have on my viewing pleasure on Sundays. Grabbing Lawrence Tynes as my kicker will just enhance the overall effect.

As for the G-Men’s chances this year, I can’t be that optimistic after watching the defense have trouble with the Ravens on third downs. While the pass rush shows every sign of improving, they weren’t quick enough to protect that linebacking and secondary crew. The offensive line hasn’t really clicked yet either and injuries along the front could just prolong their coming together as a unit.

They can’t possibly be as bad as they were last year, can they? With the return of Phillips and no more CC Brown , things have got to be better. But will they be good enough to beat a Panthers team in the opener, one that thrashed them late last year 41-9? Their QB, Matt Moore had a ridiculous 139.8 passer rating in that one, completing 15-20 and throwing 3 TD passes. Some pretty smart football folks think Carolina will be the most improved team in the NFL this year.

Oh, and Jonathan Stewart rushed for 206 yards in that one. The Giants stopped nothing that day. Can Antrel Rolle and Keith Bulluck make that much of a difference? The answer is “maybe”. A new defensive coordinator and scheme could make all the difference. But it’s the players that have to make the difference on the field. The depth chart still shows Phillips only backing up at safety and Jonathon Goff is the middle linebacker. I don’t expect the Giants to win that opener, or the one against the Colts after that. It’ll be all uphill for the G-Men this year.

The Jets are a different story. They’re a hard team to like, to be honest. Tannenbaum makes me sick. So does that Scott fella. On the other hand, it’s easy to like Sanchez at QB and Rex Ryan as the coach. But Darrell Revis was the star of the defense and Tannenbaum didn’t save any money to sign him. Yeah, you can say he was already under contract but as Michael Corleone once said, “C’mon Kaye, who’s being naïve now”?

The Jets were also incredibly lucky last year. That unprecedented luck of catching Indi and Cincinnati after they’d already wrapped up playoff spots won’t be repeated. And opening up against Baltimore and New England, and then to Miami, that’s no easy road either.

Mets? Who cares?

Tuesday, January 19, 2010

On Football, Radio and Refs

I have to be honest. After visiting my Dad down in Toms River and having watched a particularly uninspiring first half of Jets-Chargers action, if you want to call it that, I got in my car for the long ride home. But for about the first agonizing 25 minutes of my ride home, in a driving rainstorm, mind you, I had station 1050 on my dial blasting so as to hear the game thru the static.

The next hour or so, though, was terrific. You should really try it sometime. Once the signal came in clearly, there’s nothing like a car radio and a slightly-crazed announcer in a playoff game to shorten a ride home (except perhaps for windshield wipers….well, maybe the defroster too). By the time I hit the bridge, the Jets were ahead on an agonizingly drawn out call of Sanchez’s rollout and zing to Dustin Keller in the right corner of the endzone.

Of course it got even better from there as the Jets held and then extended the lead. And the call on Shonn Greene’s blast through the Chargers line and safety for the TD making it 17-7 was outstanding. But I was still in the car for Jackson’s catch down the right sideline and by the time that dust settled, I was all the way to Morris Avenue, thrilled that the Chargers gave the Jets 15 yards back on one of the stupidest, most selfish emotional displays ever.

Well, I won’t replay the entire game. We all know what happened. By the time the much-maligned Kerry Rhodes snatched the onside kick, I was in my driveway and I actually got to watch the 4th down burst by Thomas Jones to ensure a Jets berth in the AFC Championship Game. (I can scarcely believe I get the chance to compose that sentence).

The post-game show was just gravy, marred only by the extraordinary analyses of Norv Turner’s decision to go for the onsides kick and Rex Ryan’s decision to go for the first down on 4th and 1. Although both decisions were similar in kind to me, i.e. making a rather bold move to win the game, Ryan’s decision was lauded and Turner’s was panned, over and over and over….

While I had picked the Jets to cover, I never expected them to win. In fact, if they played that same zone garbage in the second half, they would have lost. But Ryan’s instincts are good. Hell, they’ve been impeccable, which, of course, has been the difference between winning and losing, his handling of Rhodes, his handling of Sanchez, his handling of the media….

I must say, though, Ryan’s instincts notwithstanding, that the Jets have had some incredibly good luck as well. First there were the Colts and Bengals not giving a damn for their last two games, and then they got missed field goals in key situations from two pretty good kickers in both the Bengals and Chargers playoff games.

I’m not even a Jets fan, really, although I used to be, before having to witness Stalag Mangini. While I hate to change allegiances from the Giants, it’s not as if I’d have no justification for it. After all, it took Coughlin forever to drop that automaton of a defensive coordinator, which only served to lose the Giants any chance of a playoffs berth. But it may not have been his call. When have the Giants ever dropped a coach mid-season? I’ll give them one more year.

Besides, who would I root for if not the Jets…Favre and Childress and the Vikings? I don’t think so. I’m firmly on the Saints this weekend, hoping against hope the home field noise at the SuperDome and resultant hard counts from Brees will effectively slow that Vikings defensive line. That alone would boost both the Saints’ running and passing games, both of which would come in handy, to say the very least.

While Favre got all the applause Sunday, it was Sidney Rice who was the real star to me, along with a totally clueless Dallas secondary. The first touchdown was absolutely ridiculous. The corner had his back turned. Any play on the ball whatsoever and that catch isn’t made. On another TD, Rice made a nice block, got up, and still Favre had enough time to deliver the ball to him.

The Saints were awesome versus the sorry Cards, a result I did foresee, what with Shockey’s return along with the rest of their defense. They pressured Warner all day. He never had a chance, much as that sorry Cards defense had no shot against either the running of Reggie Bush or the downfield shots from Brees to Colston and company.

I was wrong on the Ravens , I guess, even though I still feel the refs did them in. The calls went the Colts way all game, huge calls, season-altering calls for both teams. The call against Ray Lewis was the only big call that I gave any credence too. The pass interference call on Reed’s interception was horrible. I hate to say it, but these calls seem like “Manning calls.”
I thought I was watching the NBA. If you’re a star, you’re untouchable. If you’re on the stars team, you have an edge. If your name is Manning (or Jordan or LeBron James, etc.), you are the closest thing to God on earth. The Jets will have no chance if he and his team get the same preferential treatment this Sunday, especially with respect to pass interference and hits on the quarterback.

Even give the horrible calls, the Ravens still might have won if not for some extremely questionable play-calling by the Ravens right before the half. They ran almost no time off the clock, giving Manning all the time he needed to break their backs. That game was virtually over at the half.

I’ll be picking the Saints and Jets, hoping the Jets can get a fair shake from the refs.

Thursday, August 27, 2009

Who's the Fantasy Number 1 ?

Drew Brees? Peyton Manning? Tom Brady? Aaron Rodgers? All week, and even longer), these names and others keep buzzing by my head. Yesterday, while fixing the roof and cleaning the gutters, the question was all-consuming, who should be by number 1 overall pick in our 2009 Squander Fantasy Football League?

Now, some of you are probably asking yourself why I’m focusing on quarterbacks. What about the consensus #1 pick, Adrian Peterson, the great Minnesota running back? There are some great runners out there, and aren’t you concerned about the shortage of running backs, the traditional approach of fantasy pundits for the last ten years or so?

Well, first you have to understand that, while most fantasy leagues award passing TD’s with just 4 points, which tends to equalize a quarterback’s value with running backs and receivers, Squander Football insists on awarding a TD with 6 points; a touchdown is a touchdown, right?

Well, I’m ok with that notion, what the hell, we can come to grips with anything, this league doesn’t have any duffers, these guys have been doing this for years and years. The commissioner, my brother John, was an old Strat player and, many times you could find him happily playing it down the basement when he was maybe 6 years old.

John disagrees, by the way, with my theory that this points system should humongously skew the draft towards qb’s. The deciding factors should be scarcity at individual spots and point increments between the leaders and those following.

He maintains that the overall points difference between Drew Brees, the top fantasy scorer last year, and the rest of the qb’s, doesn’t exceed that of the top running back, Peterson, from the rest of the running backs. And that may even be so, I won’t be listing the stats here, too boring, but what happens when you list the all the available players and sort by total fantasy points?

Of the first 15 players of all types last year, a running back doesn’t appear until number 9 on the list. And it isn’t Peterson, it’s DeAngelo Williams, the Carolina RB back that tore up the league last year. Of the next 6 spots, 4 more are qb’s before you get to 15, Adrian Peterson’s rank. The points differential between Drew Brees and Adrian Peterson was 361-233 or a whopping 128 points. Even spread out over 16 weeks, that’s a little more than a TD per week. The top back scored 272 points, still 89 less or about 5 points per week.

In a snake draft as in Squander, the number 1 picker’s next pick doesn’t occur until pick 24. So, taking a qb, I’d get 360 for Brees and then be faced with selections worth 210 points. That gives me 360 plus 210 or 570 points. Taking a running back first, I’d get 270 for the back and then probably the 10th or 11th best qb, currently Eli Manning, at 231 points. That’s basically 500 points overall. So I pick up 70 points overall by taking a QB first. I don’t think there’s any two ways about it.

And furthermore, I’d have Brees and either a top wide receiver or a middling running back versus having Peterson and Eli Manning. While I really like Eli, he can’t be a top fantasy qb playing for Coughlin and the Giants, a shame really, but there you have it. Imagine Brees and a top receiver, maybe even a Larry Fitzgerald or Randy Moss. Or, I’d have Brees and a middling running back, say a Ryan Grant or Ronnie Brown.

It doesn’t really matter, running back or wide receiver, as I also get pick 25 in a snake draft. So the real choice is how to combine the picks for maximum advantage. My next pick wouldn’t occur until pick 49 (and then 50), at which point the talent is significantly thinned. A quick look at the list shows players such as Roy Williams and Larry Johnson there, not too shabby.

But the significant thing is that statistical edge going into the third round if I take a qb first; it doesn’t even have to be Brees, it could be Philip Rivers or Adam Rodgers who both scored about 335 fantasy points on the season, still way ahead of the top-rated running back at 270.

There are flaws to this approach, of course, the biggest one being the fact that what happened last year will not necessarily happen this year. Statistically, it makes more sense to look at career performances among the qb’s, which of course would add to the luster of guys like Brady, who was hurt last year, and Peyton Manning, the only Manning in town, so to speak, when you’re talking fantasy.

Then there is aesthetics, the art of the game and my enjoyment of the season. There is also the fun of the draft itself to keep in mind. I’d get a kick out of surprising the numbers 2 through 5 pickers, and maybe even a psychological advantage. For example, I could take Brady and really discomfit Snake Eyes, picking at number 2.

There is embarrassment to consider too, but I don’t really care about that so much. Last year, for example, I took Tony Romo with the number 1, an unconventional choice that drew some jeers but I was never really sorry, this despite Romo’s missing of a few weeks and then returning at only about 70%. Romo is a lot of fun to watch and you never know what starlet he’ll be bringing to the stadium.

And, speaking of last year, though I lost every game Romo didn’t start (backup Delhomme was truly horrible), I made the playoffs and won at least once in the playoffs, even though I needed a savvy running back pickup to muddle through.

But running backs will be a secondary consideration. There are too many good ones, too many split backfields and the wildcat too. The quarterback stirs the drink in Squander.

Friday, September 12, 2008

All About the Leaders

t’s tough to think about sports with any degree of seriousness on September 11th. I’m always taken back to my living room, watching a newscast with some morning coffee. They first said it appeared a private plane had crashed into the World Trade Center. Then they discovered it wasn’t a private plane at all but a commercial airliner.

And, as I watch, already horrified, another jet crashes into the tower. Three people from my town were killed, including a good friend of my daughter. And there is no World Trade Center.

In the aftermath, our leader vowed to get the people responsible. Then he assigned the responsibility to a country he hated, and, what a coincidence, Cheney was a key figure in the mistaken notion that Iraq was producing weapons of mass destruction. So off we went to war for no reason, killing Iraqis and a lot of Americans too.

Seven years later, we have no clue as to the whereabouts of Osama bin Laden. We’re assured people are looking though. The economy is horrible, nobody can sell their house, and the dollar is doing its best impression of a peso. Oh, it’s pretty tough to get a job too. Maybe that’ll curtail the flow of illegal immigrants.

We have only two “legitimate” candidates for President. And, once again, the prospective Vice Presidents are far and away more impressive than the Presidential candidates. There’s something wrong with our picture.

Leaders determine a great deal in life, and in the sports world too. We of course have seen the Mets take on new life since Jerry Manuel took the reins. Willie Randolph was a great sportsman and a nice man. Some say our President shares those traits. Wasn’t he reading a story to a class of children during the attack on New York City? Wasn’t he addressing a nice group of Republicans when Katrina slammed into New Orleans?

How does this tie in with the world of sports, you may ask? Well, the only bridge I can construct is leadership. Bad leaders accumulate losses and good ones rack up the wins. And teams tend to take on the character of the leader. Our country seems arrogant and hurtful and even stupid to the world right now. We must hope….. no, pray, that either candidate will be better….. much better.

As much of an influence, though, as a good solid leader can have on a baseball game, and a baseball team, that influence pales in significance compared to that of the head coach in professional football, and major college football too, for that matter.

The days when a quarterback could call his own plays are gone, of course, almost beyond recall. (Not for me but for many of you, I’m sure). The head coach puts together the game plan and usually calls each play. But, beyond that enormous influence, he also determines the type of players a team will acquire and dictates their behavior on the field.

It’s the worst thing that ever happened to football. A team can have a great passing quarterback such as Kurt Warner, for example, and he’ll be forced to run the football until his team is almost hopelessly behind.

Conversely, there are countless stories of the great running quarterbacks, such as Michael Vick and Vince Young, who are shackled to the pocket by coaches more interested in their system than winning, or, too limited mentally to figure out that the system that worked with their previous team won’t necessarily work with the team they have now.

The best coaches adapt their styles to their personnel. That is why Bill Belichick can win with overpowering defense, or win with an overwhelming passing attack, or win with a hard-hitting running attack. He adapts his style to his personnel, unlike Mike Martz and the new genius in Arizona.

Another mark of good leaders is that they can adapt to changing styles of play and new ideas that work. That is why we are seeing a lot more emphasis already this year on rushing the passer. The Giants’ convincing win over the supposed team of the century was accomplished by maintaining a constant stream of pressure on Tom Brady. The better teams with the better coaches will copy that style this year. And already this young season, we’ve seen Tom Brady get hurt and Peyton Manning fail to beat the Bears.

It seems to me that this new philosophy will prove a very dangerous one indeed for the quarterback population. Vince Young is hurt too, and maybe mentally as well as physically, if Coach Fischer can be believed. Fantasy footballers especially will feel the pinch when the better quarterbacks go down. Will Romo be next?

But the better coaches will already have been thinking about adaptations. More screens and draws maybe, more quick releases; the running backs who can catch the ball should see an increase in their usefulness and productivity, as will the Wes Welkers of the world. Especially against teams with the big pass rush, those quick hitters will be the only way to survive.

We might see teams loading up on quarterbacks, or see them feature better backups or perhaps younger backups. We’ve certainly seen already an adaptation to the injury factor with the almost universal switch to dual running backs. We’ve already seen the better teams, and smarter teams, put a more pronounced emphasis on the offensive line, at least if their increasing salaries is any indication.

Whatever changes are incorporated into the game, though, it’ll be the head coaches with smarts and imagination who will carry the day, and the season, as Belichick has, and Parcells, and a few others, if perhaps to a lesser extent. In a way, Parcells’s style or system already incorporates the injury risk factor, calling not only for big linemen but also for big linebackers and even a big secondary.

Sports emulates life and it’ll be a different type of season. Leadership will determine the winners, and the losers too

Monday, September 8, 2008

Just Too Much..

It was just too much, way too much to absorb...a full schedule of football games, a Mets doubleheader against the hated Phillies, Brett Favre vs. Chad Pennington. Who could even think about Serena winning another U.S. Open?

Sunday certainly didn't disappoint, if you were a Mets fan, a Jets fan, or a football fan in general. The Mets salvaged the third game of their series against the Phillies behind Johan Santana and still more heroics from Carlos Delgado.

The Jets pulled a tough one out against a surprisingly tough Miami team and, for those who just love football, NFL style, Tom Brady hurt his knee, not a happy circumstance, surely, but one that seemed to open up new vistas for teams in the AFC East. That could mean the Bills, who looked ridiculously strong against the Seahawks, will battle it out with the Jets and Pats for the division title.

The great Peyton Manning and his Colts couldn't beat the Bears! And da Bears looked like the old Bears, all defense and just enough offense. And, oh yeah, Serena Williams beat Jelena Jankovic for the U.S. Open title.

Of course, that Mets win was the best for this writer. Not only did Carlos Delgado rip two loooong home runs, not only did Johan Santana baffle Phillies hitters into the eighth inning, but Luis Ayala gave Mets fans hope that he may be a legitimate closer, no matter what happens with Billy Wagner's elbow.

It was a channel-flippers delight. From my perspective in Toms River, there were two football games of particular interest, Eagles-Rams and Jets-Dolphins. Maybe it was fortuitous that the Eagles and Number 5, Donovan McNabb, pulled away rather early from the lowly Rams, allowing that much more attention to be paid to Chad Pennington’s comeback against the Jets.

Chad came within a couple of inches of bringing the Fish all the way back from a 13-point deficit versus the Florham Park boys in green, foiled in the end only by the quick and sure hands of cornerback Darelle Revis.

Of course, all that action afforded very little time to catch Pedro Martinez and the Mets endure an old-fashioned wuppin’ by the Phils. Just as well, I guess….who wants to watch a favorite pitcher get whacked?

Other surprises abounded around the league. There was Jake Delhomme threading the needle to one of his more obscure wideouts with zero seconds on the clock to break the Chargers’ hearts and signal the return of John Fox and his Carolina Panthers.

There were the horrid Detroit Lions lying down against the Falcons and letting LaDainian Tomlinson’s former backup in San Diego, Michael Turner, light them up for TD after TD. And B.C.’s own Matt Ryan’s first career pass went for a TD for 62 yards!

The Cowboys seemed to be having a field day vs. the Browns until Tony Romo got bent, folded and mutilated by three giant bodies in brown. But not before he hit Terrell Owens for a vintage touchdown.

There was another new QB in Baltimore too, a really tall fellow named Joe Flacco who ran one in from about 40 yards out. And there was Ray Rice from Rutgers making some nice runs too. That all this occurred against the Bengals of Cincinnati and their whacko wideout Ocho Cinco made it all the more enjoyable.

Expectations of a great game between the Saints and Buccaneers materialized as Reggie Bush wowed the Bucs secondary with moves they’d never seen and a stiff arm too. Drew Brees hit Devery Henderson for about 85 yards. But old veteran Tampa QB Jeff Garcia wasn’t able to bring the Bucs all the way back this time.

In some quarters, they said the Eagles would be tough, but nobody said it with conviction except those rabid fans last seen shrieking “Fly Eagles Fly” into the night. But a rook named DeSean Jackson seemed all they said he might be. And little Brian Westbrook was pretty huge once again. Oh, and did I mention the 90-yarder to a fellow named Baskett?

After the totally uneventful Giants win over the hapless Redskins on Thursday night, not much was expected in the way of excitement this first Sunday in September. Surely there would be the same stories this year, New England, San Diego and the Colts would dominate the AFC action. Jaguars and Titans would threaten but weaken down the stretch. The Cowboys would once again rule the NFC, and the same Giants and Packers would threaten once again The Bears would be terrible once again.

In one fell swoop though, the Pats lost the best QB in either league, maybe for the season. The Chargers lost with no time on the clock, the Colts lost to the Bears. And Ben Roethlisberger and his boys in black and gold lit up the scoreboard, with cameos by Hines Ward and the return of Willie Parker.

Hmm, maybe things will be different this year.

Maybe anything is possible. Rookie quarterbacks can excel in this league, and wide receivers too, if just given the opportunity. Old QB’s can still return from injuries to wow the crowd, big defense and heart can still win games, and old-fashioned power football can still be overwhelming.

And it’s not over yet, this first NFL week. There is still a contest between those formidable Vikings and Favre-less Pack coming up, those same Vikings accused of tampering with good ol’ Bret. It should be a war.

Despite all the strange pigskin happenings though, the highlight of the day was still that Mets game. Delgado’s first homer dented the scoreboard at Shea, impressive enough, but his second seemed to soar over the stadium’s upper deck. And those two dingers followed a two-run single in the first that put the Mets on top for once in this series.

Thanks to Santana, the Mets wouldn’t need anybody but Delgado on this night. Howard, no problem. Utley, who’s he? Jayson Werth, fuhgeddaboutit.

The Mets are still up by two. WOOHOO!