Tuesday, March 30, 2010

Spring Means Nothing

I certainly hope it’s true that the spring means nothing. I know it means rain for me. And I probably haven’t nearly seen the end of it. Thank God for sump pumps and hoses and drains that still take more water than you’d think was possible. It’s meant rain for the Mets too unfortunately, and it just doesn’t look that promising right now. A Mets fan has to hope the sun is just around the corner.

Maybe it’s just that they’re always playing the Cardinals and the Marlins, who share the stadium down in nearby Jupiter, Roger Dean stadium. In case you’re wondering, Roger Dean is a local car dealer. I had been hoping he was a pirate or something, but alas, no. Both those teams are good though, if the games I’ve seen are any indicator. I have to think that. The alternative is too depressing.

Who knows, maybe today will be the start of a turnaround. Stranger things have happened. Murphy just made a horrible baserunning blunder and got hurt in the process. Maybe that will get Mike Jacobs on the team. At least he can hit the ball out of the park on a regular basis. I mean, if you’re going to hit for a low average, you may as well have some power. Dave Kingman would look good to me now.

Things could turn around too. Sean Green, who had been so bad as to be almost scary, just pitched two very solid innings. Of course they’re down by five so that really isn’t such a tremendous deal either. And here comes Kiko Calero into the game after watching Fernando Tatis have another totally inconsequential at-bat.

I don’t even know who started. The broadcast team is keeping it to themselves. It was probably Ollie though, judging by the score. Hmm, looks like Calero has a nice slider anyway, and he did do a nice job last year for the Marlins. (Somebody should tell these ladies in the stands behind home plate that they really should make an attempt to keep their knees together).

The guessing continues as to the composition of the bullpen. (Matt Holliday just hit his second homer of the day off Calero, about 420 feet to dead center, what a shot). The broadcast team seems to think it’ll be Francisco Rodriguez for sure and Pedro Feliciano for sure and everything else is up in the air. Fernando Nieve is out of options, I understand. I like Igarashi and Calero. Kelvim Escobar may return to form too. Then there is the kid with all the talent they’ll hold down, God knows why. (Yeah, I know why but I don’t agree).

Hope springs eternal for Jose Reyes, though, and I love his quote about feeling that he was Japanese, with all the pens and cameras following him around. Newly acquired Jason Bay just hit one out of the stadium. Wright still looks like Wright. Beltran is still out and probably won’t be returning for a little while yet. I refuse to speculate on him anymore. Angel Pagan is actually starting to look like not such a bad alternative to Beltran, not to mention Fernando Martinez, another young talent who won’t get called up until it’s too late to matter.

Mike Jacobs is up now and I’m hoping he hits another long one, just to make GM Omar Minaya a little crazier. Minaya’s supposed to make a decision by Friday on his final roster. It should be interesting. As a Mets fan, you have to hope the mid-season roster will look quite different from the one we are witnessing right now, barring a complete turnaround in their play once the season gets under way.

The Mets seem to be playing their cards for the future, no matter that their present may very well dictate the futures of the GM and manager Jerry Manuel. I just heard catcher Omir Santos will be starting the season in Buffalo, a fact that makes me sick. I just can’t get excited about Rod Barajas. In fact, I can’t make heads or tails on why they picked him up in the first place. He must think Barajas and Henry Blanco are an upgrade but you couldn’t convince most Mets fans of that.

I’ve defended Minaya for ages now, but I’m beginning to think I’ve been wrong about him. Not only is the present not too rosy, but the future doesn’t look that good either. Where are the pitching prospects other teams seem to have coming out their ears? Yeah, we have a first baseman in Ike Davis, a centerfielder in Fernando Martinez, and a pitcher in this Mejia(sp) who are supposed to be great (but not great enough to call up), but what about the pitching?

The starters inspire no confidence whatsoever, not even from this eternal optimist when it comes to the Mets. It’s as if God handed all the concentration and focus to Johan Santana, but withheld it totally from all the rest. Pelfrey, Maine, Perez…..what a mess! There has to be a short leash on these guys if they don’t turn it around pretty soon, especially for Perez and Maine. It’s beginning to look like the classic “addition by subtraction” situation.

K-Rod’s on the mound now, thank God. Only Sean Green’s done anything on the mound today. K-Rod just threw the nicest curve I’ve ever seen to record another strikeout. It looks as if the ninth inning will be secure, but it’s anybody’s guess how many times the Mets will arrive in that ninth inning with a lead.

Baseball’s a funny game though. Sometimes those teams appearing quite dead in March turn it immediately around once April rolls around. A Mets fan has to hope for that eventuality. I’m hoping Minaya will start showing some concern for his own immediate future. I’m hoping he gets a little less patient with players who have given him nothing in return.

Meanwhile, spring means nothing, spring means nothing…..

Wednesday, March 24, 2010

There'll Be No Crab Yankees

They’re still the Evil Empire. They always will be. I’m reminded of this today as Yankee fans are picking on the Mets at every opportunity. It’s not good enough to have your team finally break through after years and years and millions and millions spent on virtually nothing. They have to remind everybody how bad the Mets are.

And why? Francesa seems to be obsessing about relief pitching. He of course hasn’t watched a single pitch so far this year and is relying on his sycophant for info that he’s frankly too intimidated to give. He likes his job. He knows Francesa doesn’t want to hear anything good. My brother talks about Vegas odds, which is okay. Vegas didn’t pick the Saints either.

But I’m reminded too today of how much more interesting the Mets announcers are than those of the Yankees. They can actually say what they like, including pointing out Dwight Gooden’s recent problem with the law. But there is a chemistry there on that Mets broadcast team that’s just absent from Yankees broadcasts. And they can change the people but they’ll still be laboring under the strict guidelines of the Evil Empire.

Santana’s pitching today and I’m watching him now getting screwed on the corners by the home plate umpire. But he’s cool. He’s focused, as he is always. But he just gave up his first walk and the pitch wasn’t that close. Hmmm.

You can probably tell I’m psyched for the season opener. This is probably maximum psych time for me as my fantasy draft is tonight, something I always look forward to, and I’ll be drafting eighth in a ten-team league. This presents some interesting problems. It’s a good thing I’ve thought about it too, my objectives, my exclusions (any and all Yankees) and the importance of winning as compared to having fun.

There are only a few locks really. And some of those locks are guys I wouldn’t pick with a gun to my head. Arod for example. Teixeira’a another. Even CC Sabathia, a longtime Crab favorite (my fantasy team name) will be summarily shunned as he has joined the bad guys. But there are some very nice Yankee fantasy players, I must admit, in just about every one of the first five rounds.

One of the biggest factors though in selecting is that cost/benefit ratio of winning versus having fun. Prince Fielder, for example, has been a Crabs mainstay year after year. He’s even more valuable in this league as strikeouts count against you and walks are a positive. Fielder was terrific last year too and could be even better this year, still relatively young but with all that experience and maybe even a better Milwaukee team. And he’ll probably be there at pick 8.

But will he still be there at 13? I don’t think so. So it’s either pick him at 8 or I don’t get him. I figure 1-7 will be Pujols, Hanley Ramirez, Arod, Utley, Braun, Longoria and Teixeira. But Teixeira may still be there at 8 if fellow players feel about Matt Kemp as I do, which is over-rated. One good thing about passing him up is that there’re seemingly a million good fantasy first-basemen, any one of whom could have a bigger year than Teixeira.

But Fielder’s a first-sacker too. Do I really want to win this fantasy year? There surely aren’t too many shortstops or second-basemen that I’d like to have. And there are really just 3 catchers who seem to tower above the rest. Mauer’s availability at 8 presents a big problem, not just because he was the American League MVP but because he just got a huge contract, much more than I would have paid for him, and that tends to wreck a fella’s motivation, y’know?

Then Fielder is rated above some other very good players, Tulowitzki, Cabrera, and our own David Wright. Can David shake his power numbers in spacious Citi? And they did lower the fence or something, didn’t they? And he did hit .307. But he only had 72 rbi’s. That’s awful. If he improves 50%, that’s still just 108 and who improves 50% under almost any circumstances?

Tulowitzki is an interesting possibility. He’s a shortstop, a position of scarcity, an he had very nice numbers all around last year. But it was a career year for him, even though it has been a short career. He was hurt in 2008 and had relatively horrible numbers for half a season. The year before though, he had a very respectable OPS of .838 in his first full year as a player. But that stat is 100 points lower than he achieved last year. So what should be my expectation? It’s a real puzzler but I’d say somewhere between the .838 and .930, which would be a very respectable year indeed from a shortstop.

So Tulowitzki is still alive for consideration. I can’t take Jeter. I just can’t. Talk about career years!

Moving down the rankings, dangerous in itself, and having already passed not only on Yankees but also on Miguel Cabrera, who I don’t personally like, there is Ian Kinsler, a second baseman, also in short supply, and he’s had four relatively good years in a row. He’s a definite possibility, especially since his numbers should improve with Josh Hamilton coming back to that Texas lineup.

Should I consider a pitcher? Lincecum, Halladay and Greinke have a healthy ranking over the rest of the field. But they all pitched a lot of innings last year. And I don’t like taking pitchers early. They’re all tainted goods, y’know, from a fantasy viewpoint. Although I recognize the need for good pitchers, I think the variability of their numbers is totally unacceptable. I think, for the most part, you have to be lucky with pitchers, and I’ll be checking out their innings pitched, you can be sure.

But, no matter what happens, and there’s always a surprise, at least I won’t have any stinking Yankees.

Monday, March 22, 2010

All About Relief for the Mets

Okay, I’m psyched. “30 Clubs in 30 Days” is on the tube, it’s raining so I can’t be doing anything else, the grass, the paneling, the roof leak, the paint, and the MLB Channel is featuring the Giants. (No, not those pansies with the secondary that can’t cover).

Oh baby! Here’s Bruce Bochy! (Giants manager).

The Giants are all about pitching. Notables are that little whipper Lincecum and Matt Cain and Barry Friggin’ Zito and more. They have no offense to speak of…well, it’s actually pretty unspeakable.They’ve got this big kid closing too, one Brian Wilson who’s got a great fastball and is wasting his time developing a breaking ball.

What are the Mets all about? Umm….injuries? How about lack of focus? It sure seems that way sometimes. But let me try harder…really think about this team. Pitching? A little shaky, especially the starters if they stay with Maine and Perez. Santana’s looking recovered but will he be the same Santana?

I saw John Maine down in Florida and he was awful. He had a better outing his next time out but here is a guy who looks as if he just doesn’t care. He has no presence whatsoever. I’m really tired of his act. I think a little recess in AAA is long overdue for him. Perez….even if he were having a good spring, (which, to my mind he’s really not, he’s still good one day and awful the next), is an unknown and, if he has a bad start, he should go to Buffalo along with Maine.

That would leave a rotation of Santana, Mike Pelfrey, Jonathan Niese and Nelson Figueroa or Bobby Parnell. I’d be happier with that, but it’s hardly a world-beater starting rotation. All is not lost though. Niese can really be very good and Figgy always gives a good effort. I’d rather see Bobby Parnell set up for Ol’ Pinkeye, the closer.

Speaking of relief, I think we can expect big things from them. I really like both the Japanese pickups, Igarashi and Takahashi, and Calero looks good too. They’ve got Feliciano to get out the odd lefty (aren’t they all a little odd?)

All in all, I’d have to say the 2010 Mets will NOT be all about starting pitching. It looks to me as if there’ll be a lot of five-inning stints, except for the horse Pelfrey, and we’ll be seeing a lot of these relievers, which really won’t be such a bad thing, not like 2008 anyway, when it was “batten down the hatches, here comes trouble.”

The relief pitching will keep the Mets in games for that offense.

Are the Mets all about hitting? No, especially as presently constructed. But, if Reyes and Beltran return in good form, things improve considerably. Pagan can be off and on offensively but isn’t a real liability in center. Then there’s Fernando Martinez, the rookie who’s wow-ing everybody but Mets management. To spell Reyes, there is just Alex Cora.

There’re worse leadoff guys in the game than Angel Pagan. (In fact, Reyes is one of them when he’s off in never-never land). Then there is ol’ steady Luis Castillo, who is reputed to be looking to drive the ball more this year, heh-heh. That leaves that all-important three-hole to David Wright, and he’s looking more athletic to me this year, not so bulky like an old softball player. And his swing seems faster, quicker. So the first three spots are reliable.

Manning the four through six lineup spots would be Jason Bay, Jeff Francoeur and David Murphy, not necessarily in that order. Bay has impressed me thus far and Francoeur is just a good guy all around. You just wish he’d swing at a strike once in a while. Murphy will be more reliable this year as he ended last year strongly and should benefit from the year at first base, if Mike Jacobs doesn’t drive him up the wall. Jacobs will provide a power threat that Murphy doesn’t really bring to the table.

So I’d say the middle lineup could be a pleasant surprise. There’re runs there somewhere.

Without Beltran and Reyes though, the Mets have just six batters. I count on nothing from Cora and Barajas. Hopefully, the Mets will finally give Omir Santos a chance. That’d improve a bleak seven and eight, but opposing pitchers will be able to pitch carefully to Francoeur and Murphy without a threat to follow.

Bring Reyes and Beltran back and things get way better in a hurry. Then you have eight solid hitters, if Santos catches. There will be nobody to pitch around. That means a lot in the National League, with only the pitcher to contend with at nine. Moving Francoeur and Murphy back to 6 and 7 and inserting Santos at 8 would give the lineup some punch all the way through. Reyes, Beltran, Bay, Wright, Francoeur…..I’m very much looking forward to it.

How about defense? Well, they’ll be okay without Reyes and Beltran but things get better in a hurry if they come back real soon, not because their replacements are bad fielders but just that Reyes and Beltran are terrific. So, yeah, the Mets could be all about defense in time.

So, the Mets won’t be all about anything really, at least not to start with. If they’ll be about anything, it’ll be relief…the return of two star players and that strong relieving corps. They’ll have trouble early with the Marlins and Braves for sure, and forget about playing with the Phillies. The best they could hope for would be a .500 record going into May.

But, when Beltran and Reyes return, the Mets will become a real force. Anyway you look at it, Beltran and Reyes will drastically improve the lineup and the defense. The relief pitching willl keep them in games in the bad times and keep them ahead in the good times.

Prognostication? With Beltran and Reyes - 2nd in NL East and possible wildcard. Without them, 4th.

Monday, March 8, 2010

OFF TO SPRING TRAINING

Leaving in an hour or so on train to West Palm. Mets, Marlins and Cards right up the highway. Life is good. Weather will be in 70's all week....woohoo!!

Get well, Jose....and Carlos....and Johan...

Tuesday, March 2, 2010

On 2010 Fantasy Baseball

Let me first offer my apologies to any regular readers for my extreme laziness of late. The Winter Olympics, though, is not really my cup of java, or anything else for that matter. Basketball doesn’t send me either, especially lately, although I suppose Tracy McGrady going to the Knicks was worthy of a few words.

And there’s been nothing new with the ol’ blue and orange. Even with spring training under way, there haven’t been too many nuggets upon which to comment. And I’m even having trouble filling out my fantasy baseball league. You don’t suppose it’s my inane posts, do you?

Fantasy baseball, for the uninitiated, is to me by far the best fantasy game, especially if you have some time to spare, as the opportunities to make moves abound, setting your pitching staff for the week, deciding between your fast second baseman and your slugger, or even picking up spot pitchers in a given week to put some pressure on your opponent. (This almost never works).

It’s still three weeks to the fantasy draft so I have ample time to obsess about which players I’d especially like to have on my roster. But I can’t even begin my period of real obsession until the draft order is set, and that really can’t be done until the league hopefully fills out a bit.

For the present then, I can just hope against hope that I don’t draw the number 1 pick, as Albert Pujols would be the only logical pick there, and I’m really not enthralled with the prospect of rooting for either him or the Cardinals. Of course, Matt Holliday is there in St Loo too, along with a couple of other fellows who can hit, so I should perhaps change my view.

Then there is the question of whether or not I want to have Mets on my roster. While Carlos Beltran has been practically a fixture on my annual fantasy teams, it’ll be troubling to assess how many rounds he should drop due to his late start and, even more troubling perhaps, how he’ll play when he returns.

Will he be a stolen base threat at all? Will his apparent disgruntledness make him take a seat when he’s a little sore? Will he decide it’s just too much trouble to take that extra base? Will the absence of Carlos Delgado bother him a lot? I’m thinking yes to that last question and really have very little clue as to the answers to the first two questions.

Should I continue my anti-Yankee policy? While my heart says yes, my head is screaming no, no, no. Even without Damon and Matsui, that Yankee lineup could be a real killer…again. Granderson is dangerous and, while I’m quite sure Nick Johnson will get hurt again, he still poses a threat to keep those rallies going when he is in the lineup.

But really, how can I live with having Arod or Jeter or Posada on my team? Do I really want to put myself in the position of having to root for them? I think not. I’ll just have to find a competing roster that can score nearly as much. Certainly the Phillies will find their way to home plate quite often this year, and the Cards should do very nicely indeed.

I’m sure my spring training trip next week will also affect my selections and, as I’ll be seeing a lot of the Marlins and Cards along with the Mets, I’m sure a Hanley Ramirez or Dan Uggla might find his way into my lineup, possibly to join a Holliday or a Poo Holes.

I know one thing for sure. I’ll be more likely to acquire a Jeff Francoeur in a late round rather than a David Wright or Jose Reyes early. And the same goes for pitchers, I guess, as Santana is coming off an operation and only the true faithful could expect big seasons from Perez, Pelfrey or Maine.

Who’ll be the surprise team of 2010? It could be the Reds or even the Pirates, believe it or not, or maybe those strange Brewers. And I’m expecting more from the Cubs and less from the Dodgers. In the American League, I’m expecting a lot from Seattle and, of course, the Twins, not that that would be that much of a surprise. And the M&M twins, Mauer and Morneau, could have very big years….hmmm.

Will a guy like Giants starter Tim Lincecum relax after his big contract? Will the Phils outfielder Jayson Werth go nuts in this last year of his contract? And how will Jason Bay react to his first year as a Met?

Then there’s the question of the newbies, the future stars and big bonus babies who sometimes pan out but more often either split time or play in AAA until July. There’ll be a run on those types in the late rounds and you don’t want to be caught with your pants down when that pick string commences.

Here is where you can find a good summary of those rookies expected to break out in 2010. You’ve probably heard of Stephen Strasburg, the million dollar baby with the Nationals (who could be another sleeper team), but you may not be familiar with Drew Storen, that same team’s potential closer.

And Neftali Feliz, who, I seem to recall, put in some innings last year as a reliever is said to be the Rangers’ Joba Chamberlain. He might become a starter if he can handle the innings.

On the hitting side of your roster, you might consider the Giants’ Buster Posey (and I love the name too, a nice baseball name), a catcher who can spell Bengie Molina, whose penchant for free-swinging is legendary. Another great baseball name is the Rangers’ Justin Smoak, who should be a pitcher with that moniker but actually plays the outfield and can hit like crazy.

So good luck, fantasy nuts, and make sure that first pick is solid. You’ll need him.