Look to the Little Guys

This is the longest week in the sports calendar. It must be. I even turned on a minute or so of the Pro Bowl. There should be some form of punishment for that, if the game itself isn’t penalty enough. Unless you’re a madman or Super Bowl trivia expert, this is a week for that ski trip you always wanted.

Oh yeah, there’s basketball. Right. The Knicks traded their way out of contention and nobody wants to play for the Nets. Seton Hall was exciting for a brief while but those heady days appear to be over. The Australian Open was great, I must say, especially the Men’s Final between Djokovic and Nadal but that’s all over.

Oh yeah, there’s baseball hot stove stuff. Every other team in the world is doing something interesting but if you’re a Mets fan, you have to be happy with less. For Mets fans, this is the beginning of the beginning if you’re an optimist. It’ll be a year of hoping a team plays over its head….constantly.

I’m not into hockey but this week I actually wish I was. For a guy who’s never really skated, it’s tough to follow hockey. There is some Rangers buzz though and how often does that happen? Okay, I’m done, what else is there? Oh well, it’ll be a good week to hit the gym a lot. Geez, maybe I can even start following the Republican nominees around. That’s at least nasty.

I know this would probably be a good time to do a nice lengthy analysis of Giants-Pats but geez, it seems I’ve covered the Giants side of things enough already. I’ve maintained they’d need the best defense in the league to even get this far. That has proven true. But they also seem to have a little luck going for them lately, most notably against San Francisco.

I mean, really, how often is the return guy going to let the ball hit him in the knee? And how often is the same guy going to fumble? That’s what makes me nervous going into Indianapolis. It would seem that maybe the G-Men’s good luck is due to turn. I don’t want to put the horns on them but, really, will the Patriots give the ball up that easily?

I don’t think so. Plus, there’re all those characters you’ve heard about before. Yeah, yeah, Bellichick. Yeah, yeah, Brady. And now, yeah, yeah, Gronkowski. But maybe the big scary tight end will have no wheels for this game. That sure sounds like more good luck to me.

The question for me is whether or not the Giants can beat that Pats team without getting ridiculous breaks. It is possible, I think. But it’s also possible that Bellichick will come up with something weird. For this game, if I were him, I’d use the formula that won me a Super Bowl for the Giants against the Buffalo Bills back in 1991.

That day, Bellichick’s Giants defense decided to let the Bills QB Kelly complete short passes in front of them and then proceeded to knock the ever-loving hell out of the receiver. Before you knew it, the high-flying Bills were doing nothing and the Giants were just pounding the ball on the ground, keeping that Bills offense off the field. Before the Bills figured out that the G-Men were letting them run, it was almost too late.

I say “almost” because the Bills actually did finally run the ball into scoring position with a chance to win. But Scott Norwood was wide right with his field goal attempt. It was too late for the Bills only because Norwood missed. All of Bellichick’s scheming could have gone out the window. Luck showed its ugly side to the Bills that day.

But the circumstances between that game and this one are similar. The Giants have a running game for sure but the real threats are in the passing game and lots of yards after the catch. Why not sit back and blast the hell out of Nicks and Cruz and Manningham? Why wouldn’t the Pats force the G-Men to beat them on the ground?

On the other side of the ball, the Pats would try to run the ball as O.J. Anderson did that January day in 1991. That will really be the challenge for the Pats. But, even if they can just get a few yards now and then on the ground, it’ll enable Brady to dink and dunk them to death with Welker and Hernandez, their other tight end and jack-of-all-trades. A ground game will also tire out those animals on the Giants defensive line.

If the Pats can do all those things, pound the Giants receivers, run the ball successfully, and dink the Giants to death, they could easily win this game. Incredibly enough, the betting line currently says the Pats are favored by 3; the over-under at 54 ½. Vegas thinks it’ll be somewhere around 29-26 in the Pats favor.

No two teams know each other better than these Giants and Pats, having played once this season already, and both head coaches coached together under Bill Parcells. When there are no surprises, the team with the better talent will tend to win the game. You couldn’t convince me that the Pats have the better overall talent.

With a healthy Gronkowski, the Pats may be more talented. But a slowed-down Gronk makes a big difference. He’s been Brady’s favorite receiver. Even a big guy has trouble playing with pain. And a high ankle sprain presents a nice target for further injury. I’d expect some low tackles on Mr. Gronkowski.

This game is too hard to predict really, but, especially if both teams neutralize the perceived power on the other side, I’d think this will be a game of unlikely heroes, maybe a Patriots running back or a Giants tight end. I don’t think the “usual suspects” will have a chance.

Look to the little guys in this one. Definitely.

Yes, the Best Defense in the League!

Since Saturday night, all I’ve been hearing is that Aaron Rodgers had an uncharacteristically bad day. Otherwise, they seem to say, the Giants could’ve lost their battle with the #1 seed and 15-1 Green Bay Packers. They outline each and every time Rodgers missed a pass or one of his receivers dropped a ball.

I say “bullshit.”

Rodgers missed the passes because he was out-of-synch all game long. The best passer in the world was only normal when he had pass-rushers up his butt all afternoon. His receivers got a little jumpy when they had defensive backs and linebackers growing out of their backs. Packer running backs found a lot of tough going and every Packer had to make sure they held onto that football.

Pressure. That’s what stopped the Packers. Relentless all-day-long hits and eleven guys paying attention, an offense the Packers kind of knew they couldn’t stop, a quarterback named Manning making all the throws and making all the right calls. The combination of all that was just too much for the green and gold, even at home.

There would be very few leaps into the stands that day.

I had called it exactly right. I had said that it would take the best defense in the league to stop Aaron Rodgers and all those nifty receivers, Finley and Jennings and Jordy Nelson and Donald Driver. And it did take some really great defense to do it. I think the Giants have the best defense in the league. Who’s better….the Ravens?

I don’t think so.

Not the guys from Baltimore, not the 49ers and certainly not the New England Patriots. The Giants are the best defense in the league. The 49ers will have something to say about that this weekend but it wasn’t the Niners defense that won their game against Drew Brees and the Saints, although for almost 3 quarters, they showed they were awfully tough.

In the final quarter, the Niners were getting picked apart. It was an almost miraculous performance by the Niners offense that saved the Niners day. Alex Smith and Vernon Davis saved the Niners. The Saints defense couldn’t stop a perfectly-thrown goal line pass to Vernon Davis. They couldn’t stop Alex Smith running with the ball. The Saints dared Alex Smith to beat them and so he did.

The Niners may beat the Giants but it won’t be their defense stifling Manning and those wide-outs. They may stop the run pretty well but the Giants should get their points. Hell, they may even be able to run the ball, though the wise would be wise to not count on such a happening.

Even Eli and all his weapons will have trouble penetrating that sure to be pumped-up Niners defense in San Francisco. But I think they eventually will. It’ll probably come late in the game, after having pressured that Niners secondary all day long.

The G-Men will eventually take the lead and hold it. Alex Smith and Vernon Davis won’t beat these Giants. The home field of that City by the Bay won’t beat them. After all, they’ve already come through that gigantic structure in Dallas and that frozen tundra in Green Bay. Those la-la Niners fans won’t shake them. It’s not likely anyway.

What might be likely is a bit of a Giants letdown. They’ve been through a lot of pressure themselves. This will be their umpty-ump must-win game in a row. And it’ll be the first time in these playoffs that they won’t be facing an acknowledged defense-killer at quarterback, no Romo, no Rodgers, just a guy named Smith.

And they’ve faced these Niners before. To a man, they think they should have won that game. That previous experience can do two things. It can build up confidence or it can lead to a little bit of complacency on the field. After all, it won’t be Rodgers guiding those Niners….just Alex Smith.

Our heroes will also be facing arguably the best head coach in the league. Jim Harbaugh doesn’t make mistakes. He’s no Mike Smith, the Falcons head coach, the 4th and 1 wonder. He’s no Jason Garrett either. He’s probably on a par with that Green Bay head coach who won 15 games this season.

Harbaugh will keep that team motivated. He’ll probably figure a way of getting to Eli. Harbaugh will likely find some chink in that Giants armor. It’ll probably be centered around the Niners running game and that horse Frank Gore.

But the Falcons had a horse of a runner in Michael Turner. He didn’t do much. And the Falcons had a great receiving corps…Julio Jones and Roddy White and that venerable Tony Gonzalez at tight end. That contingent scored zero versus the Giants. Sure, Mike Smith was a handicap but even the best head coach would’ve had trouble with the Giants that day.

The Niners though have some Smiths of their own, some formidable Smiths, not just Alex but also Aldon and Justin in that steely Niners front seven. Justin is especially scary. Anybody who witnessed him charging through that Saints offensive line won’t take anything for granted this weekend. The Harbaugh Niners are really tough and play really hard.

Unlikely as it seems to me, the Giants are currently the underdog in this matchup by 2 ½ points, no doubt due primarily to hosting the game in San Fran. The over-under is currently 42. That means the rest of the world thinks the Niners will come out on top by a score of 22 ¼ to 19 ¾.

I don’t think so. Yeah, I know all about the brilliant Niners coaching and their terrific kicking game and their stingy defense but the Giants ain’t chopped liver either. Harbaugh acknowledged as much the other day. He seemed to be of the same mind as Green Bay when they decided to on-sides kick in a tie game, that they would need an extra possession to win.

If the better team prevails, it’ll be the Giants game.

The Best Defense in the League?

What an NFL Wildcard Weekend!!

I had thought this past weekend might be one of those yawners that seem to happen now and then. The matchups certainly didn’t lend themselves to one’s thinking that it’d be great entertainment, especially not the Broncos-Steelers game. I’d been looking forward to the Giants-Falcons, of course, but the other games didn’t send me, except for maybe the Bengals against the Texans. I thought the Bengals had a great chance.

Wrong, wrong, wrong!!

The Texans were off and running early. JJ Watt, a lineman for Pete’s sake, made a reaching stab of a Dalton pass to the flat and that play pretty much was a harbinger of things to come. There’d be no Dalton dramatics, there’d be no stopping the Texans running game….it was a pretty routine win for the contingent from Texas. For one more year, it’d be a shame to be a Bengals fan.

That Saturday night, the Saints-Lions was on the schedule. Nobody in their right mind thought the Lions would be able to stop Drew Brees but they actually did pretty well through the first half before utterly crumbling in the second half. It was like a snowball rolling down the hill. But, if you like watching a good quarterback work, Drew Brees is one of the three quarterbacks in the league that can absolutely destroy a defense.

One of the other two, of course, Aaron Rodgers, is unfortunately facing our Giants this weekend. His Packers have lost just once this year and Rodgers has been a huge part of the reason. The man is as accurate as anybody who’s ever played. He rolls around in the pocket and will take off running when the opportunity presents itself. The man just rolls.

Yeah. That’s true. But what about the Giants defense? Won’t that pass rush get to Rodgers? I certainly hope so but that Pack OL ain’t chopped liver and I’m not so sure the Falcons OL had one of its better days against the G-Men. But, statistically, as I can recall, the Falcons OL was pretty high in the rankings.

What I’m trying to say is that, if the Giants defensive line is the best in the league, if they can get to any quarterback in the league, then Rodgers might find himself running around a bit more than he is used to. I’ve already heard the Giants have a puncher’s chance and that’s as good an analogy as any, I suppose.

The trouble is that even a Rodgers under pressure is going to be pretty damned good. He’ll roll around and get rid of the ball when he must but most of the time, he’ll just find those receivers in perfect stride. Or, if they’re covered, he’ll just do that back-shoulder routine that’s so impossible to stop. Rodgers throws to everybody and he throws on the run probably better than anybody. So, even if he’s running, that doesn’t help the opposition as much as you’d think.

When the Giants beat the Pats in early 2008, Brady was the QB and, at the time anyway, Brady was considered the best quarterback ever. As things turned out, the Giants did indeed get to Brady and the pressure affected him bigtime. But Brady is a statue compared to Rodgers.

The aforementioned Brady is still in these playoffs, of course, and his Pats should have another reasonably good time against the Broncos. All I can say about that one is Tebow, Tebow, Tebow, Tebow. Watching Tebow running that Denver offense, when it’s all working, is a thing of beauty. What’s he going to do? Well, he could run himself, he could simply hand off or he could run to the edge and pitch it, or he could just wing it down the field, that last being the least likely of all.

That is, until Sunday afternoon. After Sunday’s game, the defense will have to figure against the Broncs passing game as well. Tebow’s 316 yards passing and two touchdowns, and another one rushing, pretty much killed any thoughts that the Broncs were only 3-dimensional. Any more dimensions, of course, would be out of this world, by definition, and that’s exactly what most Broncos fans are thinking about their quarterback these days.

After the Giants crushing of the witless Falcons, I would’ve been happy with the day as it was. I didn’t really need a great Broncos game, even if the Broncs opponent was the hated Steelers, the hated Ben Roethlisberger, that stupid Kiesel beard, that bully Harrison, and Mike Tomlin just out-thinking and out-motivating everybody else on the sidelines.

The way Denver went about their business was special. That first half was especially good, watching the Broncos not only take the lead with a beautifully-thrown Tebow pass that went the distance, but then adding insult to injury by just piling up some more points. And when hated Big Ben took the Steelers all the way back to inevitably tie the game in regulation, one had to think the worst. But Tebow’s on-target dart to Demaryus Thomas on the first play of overtime was just great. There would be no Steelers victory that day. Tebow to Thomas took care of that.

Saving the best for last, the Giants game proceeded pretty much as I had expected. The game started slowly, both teams did nothing and then things heated up quickly. But I’d thought both teams would have some success through the air. I’d thought Falcons head-man Mike Smith would ultimately blow the game. As things turned out though, Smith took his team out early with badly-run quarterback sneaks while the ponderous Michael Turner watched from the bench.

And the Giants defense stopped everything the Falcons could muster.

But Rodgers will be doing the mustering this week and their head coach isn’t Mike Smith. The G-Men need to bring their best game. If they truly have become the best defense in the league, as it certainly appeared on Sunday, they could even win this thing.