Look to the Little Guys

This is the longest week in the sports calendar. It must be. I even turned on a minute or so of the Pro Bowl. There should be some form of punishment for that, if the game itself isn’t penalty enough. Unless you’re a madman or Super Bowl trivia expert, this is a week for that ski trip you always wanted.

Oh yeah, there’s basketball. Right. The Knicks traded their way out of contention and nobody wants to play for the Nets. Seton Hall was exciting for a brief while but those heady days appear to be over. The Australian Open was great, I must say, especially the Men’s Final between Djokovic and Nadal but that’s all over.

Oh yeah, there’s baseball hot stove stuff. Every other team in the world is doing something interesting but if you’re a Mets fan, you have to be happy with less. For Mets fans, this is the beginning of the beginning if you’re an optimist. It’ll be a year of hoping a team plays over its head….constantly.

I’m not into hockey but this week I actually wish I was. For a guy who’s never really skated, it’s tough to follow hockey. There is some Rangers buzz though and how often does that happen? Okay, I’m done, what else is there? Oh well, it’ll be a good week to hit the gym a lot. Geez, maybe I can even start following the Republican nominees around. That’s at least nasty.

I know this would probably be a good time to do a nice lengthy analysis of Giants-Pats but geez, it seems I’ve covered the Giants side of things enough already. I’ve maintained they’d need the best defense in the league to even get this far. That has proven true. But they also seem to have a little luck going for them lately, most notably against San Francisco.

I mean, really, how often is the return guy going to let the ball hit him in the knee? And how often is the same guy going to fumble? That’s what makes me nervous going into Indianapolis. It would seem that maybe the G-Men’s good luck is due to turn. I don’t want to put the horns on them but, really, will the Patriots give the ball up that easily?

I don’t think so. Plus, there’re all those characters you’ve heard about before. Yeah, yeah, Bellichick. Yeah, yeah, Brady. And now, yeah, yeah, Gronkowski. But maybe the big scary tight end will have no wheels for this game. That sure sounds like more good luck to me.

The question for me is whether or not the Giants can beat that Pats team without getting ridiculous breaks. It is possible, I think. But it’s also possible that Bellichick will come up with something weird. For this game, if I were him, I’d use the formula that won me a Super Bowl for the Giants against the Buffalo Bills back in 1991.

That day, Bellichick’s Giants defense decided to let the Bills QB Kelly complete short passes in front of them and then proceeded to knock the ever-loving hell out of the receiver. Before you knew it, the high-flying Bills were doing nothing and the Giants were just pounding the ball on the ground, keeping that Bills offense off the field. Before the Bills figured out that the G-Men were letting them run, it was almost too late.

I say “almost” because the Bills actually did finally run the ball into scoring position with a chance to win. But Scott Norwood was wide right with his field goal attempt. It was too late for the Bills only because Norwood missed. All of Bellichick’s scheming could have gone out the window. Luck showed its ugly side to the Bills that day.

But the circumstances between that game and this one are similar. The Giants have a running game for sure but the real threats are in the passing game and lots of yards after the catch. Why not sit back and blast the hell out of Nicks and Cruz and Manningham? Why wouldn’t the Pats force the G-Men to beat them on the ground?

On the other side of the ball, the Pats would try to run the ball as O.J. Anderson did that January day in 1991. That will really be the challenge for the Pats. But, even if they can just get a few yards now and then on the ground, it’ll enable Brady to dink and dunk them to death with Welker and Hernandez, their other tight end and jack-of-all-trades. A ground game will also tire out those animals on the Giants defensive line.

If the Pats can do all those things, pound the Giants receivers, run the ball successfully, and dink the Giants to death, they could easily win this game. Incredibly enough, the betting line currently says the Pats are favored by 3; the over-under at 54 ½. Vegas thinks it’ll be somewhere around 29-26 in the Pats favor.

No two teams know each other better than these Giants and Pats, having played once this season already, and both head coaches coached together under Bill Parcells. When there are no surprises, the team with the better talent will tend to win the game. You couldn’t convince me that the Pats have the better overall talent.

With a healthy Gronkowski, the Pats may be more talented. But a slowed-down Gronk makes a big difference. He’s been Brady’s favorite receiver. Even a big guy has trouble playing with pain. And a high ankle sprain presents a nice target for further injury. I’d expect some low tackles on Mr. Gronkowski.

This game is too hard to predict really, but, especially if both teams neutralize the perceived power on the other side, I’d think this will be a game of unlikely heroes, maybe a Patriots running back or a Giants tight end. I don’t think the “usual suspects” will have a chance.

Look to the little guys in this one. Definitely.