Tuesday, September 28, 2010

Too Many Variables

It’s hard to figure, professional football outcomes. There are just too many variables.

For the Giants, it was another bad day at the office. A left-handed pass, a fumble down low, a bunch of penalties….geez, I expected them to lose, but who could have predicted that they would lose the way they did?

Let’s face it, their offensive tackles stunk last week, and now they came in without their center. Their tight end had been out. That they were favored in that game was ridiculous. The Titans are a pretty damned good team, year after year, and especially with their line play.

But it didn’t turn out the way I figured. The O-line was good and would have been great if not for their stupid penalties later in the game. Their defensive line, in fact, their whole defense, played admirably. But the Giants did lose anyway. Their special teams, and especially their new punter, Dodge, were awful.

Injuries are the order of the day in professional football. How a team weathers them determines their success. If the Giants had a backup center who was any good, if they had a better punter, they would have played. I didn’t see them, did you?

The Giants need some changes. Will they make them? No. They don’t make in-season changes. Almost every other team does. So they have a built-in disadvantage. They’re living in a different century.

Coughlin takes responsibility though….again. That makes me feel a whole lot better.

The Jets surprised me in a good way, showing me some unexpected toughness, not to mention skill, down in Miami. Mark Sanchez was great….again. He made some awfully nice passes. So was their tight end, Dustin Keller. So was Braylon Edwards, who scored on a cornerback slip, proving there really is no justice in this world. Ask Michael Vick.

But the Jets defense forced the Fish to pass. Ronnie Brown had 54 yards. Ricky Williams had 28. The Jets offense put the Fish in a hole, which forced them to pass. And pass they did, but it wasn’t enough and it’s really not their game. They’re used to running and wearing out the other team, keeping the opposing offense off the field.

The Jets overcame their defensive liabilities, their loss of run-stopper Kris Jenkins, their loss of pass-stopper Darrelle Revis. And they just scored more points than they usually do, even without Leon Washington, the running back they let go to Seattle, who scored twice yesterday to beat the Chargers.

It didn’t have to turn out that way. But the Jets have reserves all over the place. A fellow named Sione Pouha manned the center of the defense, just as capably as he did last year. A fellow named Antonio Cromartie partially made up for the loss of Revis. All their acquisitions were all too visible; LaDainian Tomlinson and Jason Taylor played key roles in the win too.

But in professional football, there are just too many variables to determine outcomes of games. Injuries are only the most glaring example. There is coaching, the game plan, the scheme and how it works against a particular matchup, and just plain luck.

But coaching is huge, not just for game-planning but for motivation as well. The Jets play the game as if it were fun, the Giants play as if it were a forced march, much as the Jets used to play under Mangini.

But the Giants won’t change coaches. They did win it all a few years ago. But that was before the departure of Steve Spagnola to the Rams, an organization on the upswing for sure. That team also had a fellow named Strahan, a leader on and off the field, and a younger offensive line.

The Forty- Niners, who had played like a team on a mission just last week against the Super Bowl champion Saints, lost yesterday to the uncharacteristically good Kansas City Chiefs 31-10. They fired their offensive coordinator today. The Giants will react to their problems sometime next year.

The quarterback sets the tone. Eli Manning, as good as his numbers may be, set the tone yesterday for the Giants and that tone was stupid. Throwing left-handed in the red zone just isn’t smart. Everybody worked too hard to get there. Maybe he hangs around with Favre too much.

Backup quarterback is arguably the second most important position on a football team. When the starter is injured, the backup becomes all-important. The Eagles and Steelers weathered the loss of their first-string guys quite nicely.

Their names were Michael Vick for the Eagles and Dennis Dixon, and then Charlie Batch for the Steelers. They all played great. The Lions just had backup QB Shawn Hill. They haven’t won yet. The Raiders had a fellow named Gradkowski backing up the disappointing Jason Campbell, and he lead them to what should have been a victory.

But then kickers can lose a game for you too. It happened in the Big Easy yesterday. And it happened in Arizona against the Raiders. Sebastian Janikowski, one of the best kickers in the league, missed the game-winner and so did Garrett Hartley for the Saints.

There are just too many variables. With around 50 players and 15 coaches, and an infinite number of game situations, just about anything can happen, and often does.

For example, the Jets just finished beating the Patriots and the Dolphins, both front-runners for playoff bids. They go to lowly Buffalo next week. But Buffalo just rid themselves of their former Number 1 quarterback, and are now involving talented running back C.J. Spiller into the game plan.

The Jets are riding high. How will that affect their attitude?

Those variables, especially injuries, affect fantasy teams too. My team continued its streak of good luck yesterday against a tough opponent despite the loss of its leading scorer, Jahvid Best, who injured a toe. Who could have foreseen a 12-catch performance out of Austin Collie while my opponent’s QB Matt Schaub had his worst game ever?

Thursday, September 23, 2010

Melodrama Without Chemistry

Is anybody else tired of all the melodrama surrounding the New York football teams? I think it shows a huge team character and chemistry deficit.

The Jets beat the Patriots, a huge win given their slow start, and all we hear about is Braylon Edwards. The Giants play one of their worst games ever, but all we hear about is Brandon Jacobs and his helmet, or Antrel Rolle, a new Giant, who says there’s no leadership on the team.

I’m really tired of it. If you want any analysis, you have to tune in to MLB or NFL or NBA Networks. The newspaper coverage is a wasteland. Can anybody tell me what the Giants are going to do about that horrible offensive line, when they’ll get their tight end situation fixed, or when they can rid themselves of David Diehl as the tackle on the left-hand side?

The Jets are a reality show. I don’t even care about them anymore, except for Rex Ryan, who seems to be a good man under all that baloney. Tom Coughlin has the Giants playing under his unique form of despotism again, after disbanding that pesky players committee after they won that Super Bowl. And his team played like a team that doesn’t care.

The Jets-Dolphins matchups over the years have been awesome, practically each and every one. This year’s game could be the best one of them all. Yet you’ll hear nothing about that in the papers.

It’ll be that tough Jets offensive line and running game facing off against a Fish defensive line that spit back Adrian Peterson after a few attempts inside the ten-yard line. It’ll be two young QB’s showing off their wares, Sanchez against Henne. Sanchez should have time but see no open receivers. Drew Henne, Miami’s QB, will see open receivers yet have no time to get the ball to them.

But underlying all the talents on the field is that indefinable team chemistry, a factor in football games more so than in any other sport. How will the Jets react to being told to tone it down after Braylon Edwards’s arrest ? How will the Dolphins come out after thrashing the Vikings this weekend?

Team chemistry…the Jets have some, the Dolphins have some, even the Kansas City Chiefs have some. The Giants have none. Neither do the Bills or half a dozen other teams, even some of those who spend big money for players.

The poster-boy for team chemistry would have to be the New Orleans Saints. On Monday night, before a packed house in San Francisco, they showed the timely combination of good offense and defense that just got the job done, no matter what the circumstances.

I’ve been a closet Saints fan for a few years now, and to me, their Monday night game against the San Francisco 49ers proved that a team that believes in its coach, and a coach who believes in his team, can accomplish wonders…..packed house, Jerry Rice Day, mad Mike Singletary….it just doesn’t matter.

You’ll seldom see a team play as hard as the Niners did Monday night. Their head coach, Mike Singletary, had been rabid all week after the Niners opening loss against the lowly Seahawks , a loss that was largely attributable to coaching. But Monday night, Singletary’s team came ready to play.

The Niners may have been too ready. After a bad snap for a safety and an early Drew Brees-engineered drive, the Saints took an early 9-0 lead. But, when backed up to their ten-yard line with the crowd screaming, the Saints played conservatively, using runs and short passes to gain ground. When they could not, they simply punted. There would be no Saints meltdown; the Niners would have to earn every yard.

The Niners kept coming though. Frank Gore was a battering ram, the un-Brandon Jacobs. But Saints CB Roland Harper intercepted an Alex Smith pass to thwart one drive, only to have the Niners force another Saints punt when they sacked Brees, who was fortunate to keep his grip on the football.

Then the Niners really started turning it on. Frank Gore, Alex Smith and a few different receivers put together a clock-eating drive to pull within 9-7. Then they forced another Saints punt to take control of the ball again with about 7 minutes left in the first half.

The Niners kept coming. Banging Frank Gore into the line and using some deft passing from Alex Smith, they drove again to the Saints 12-yard line. But the Saints kept their composure, and when Delanie Walker had the ball punched out at about the 4-yard line, it was the the Saints who swarmed to the ball, the Saints who would hold on to lead at the half.

In the second half, the Niners changed gears. Two long passes to Morgan and tight end Vernon Davis spearheaded their next drive, one that was good for an eventual TD that gave the Niners the lead 14-9, for the first time.

It was then that the Saints really showed their character. Using their big guns, Bush and Colston and Pierre Thomas, the Saints took the lead again on their very next possession. And their defense held, first by forcing a 3 and out, then intercepting a Smith pass.

Punting then became the order of the day. The Saints held on like bulldogs in a few sequences that included a nifty Brees batted pass to himself. But a Niners goal-line stand forced a Saints field goal. Instead of putting the game away, the Saints lead was only 8.

A TD and 2-point conversion could still tie it. The Saints finally blinked. The Niners took advantage and tied it. The crowd went wild. It looked bad for the Saints.

But the Niners left 1:19 on the clock, too much time against a QB like Brees, a coach like Payton and some great team players named Colston and Thomas. Hartley kicked the winning field goal with zero on the clock.

Wednesday, September 15, 2010

Dumb Luck and Just Dumb

What’s better than this? It’s 70 degrees, and the Mets got a complete game out of a really nice guy, it would seem anyway, a fellow named Dickey. He’s 35, he’d been in the minors forever, nobody really noticed, and then he figured out how to throw a knuckleball.

Anyway, this guy Dickey has a weird knuckleball, a harder than “normal” one, and it only gets hit when it decides to do nothing, to just sit there and say, “hit me”. But that isn’t very often. Most times, the batter will be out, in spectacularly boring ways.

Anyway, this Dickey guy won his 11th game last night, and he should be up to at least 15 by now. He’s unassuming, he has no attitude except for a refreshing positive nature, he’s high on his team, and naturally, the Mets will probably wind up losing him some way, or pissing him off, or making him crazy.

Naturally I’m reminded of Carlos Beltran, who FINALLY is looking something like himself. But I don’t think he’s trying very hard. I saw him on the front end of a double play and he just ducked. Oh well. Tendinitis, operations the management gave him trouble for, in the last year of his contract, who could expect anything more.

He’ll get his numbers if he can but, until someone talks to him about an extension or a trade, he’ll hit his long balls, he’ll play a pretty good outfield (meaning fast and smart if uninspired), and be scary to opponents. That’ll be good enough for me, even at 16 million, given our Jason Bay experience.

But one again, it’s a beautiful day. Why sully it with Mets talk. It’s just depressing. They coulda been a contender, as Marlon might have said.

The Giants, on the other hand, were great on Sunday, much to my delighted surprise. That Carolina team killed them last year. Even with all the new guys, that whole infusion of talent, I never expected them to come together as a unit. They didn’t really show much in the exhibitions.

The Giants stopped the run, they covered receivers pretty well, they rushed the passer. Hell, they did everything a defense is supposed to do. Manning to Nicks was there all day. The running game didn’t look that good but it’s early yet. But defense will not be absent this year.

For whatever reason, whether it was Sheridan, or guys who couldn’t cover, or just a general malaise, the Giants stunk it up last year on defense. And it took the management all year to figure it out. The Giants almost never make big in-season moves. They should have. This isn’t 1956, it’s 2010, the era of just in time inventory systems. Gimme a break.

But it’s really nice to have football back. That’s for sure. Aside from the Giants and Jets, there’s all the action around the league. I thoroughly enjoyed Sunday if just because my fantasy opponent had some of the most horrendous luck I’ve ever seen.

Kevin Kolb was his quarterback and, ordinarily, he could put up some big numbers. He got hurt very early in that Packers game. His most dangerous wide receiver, Calvin Johnson, got totally screwed, along with his Detroit Lions team, on a sure touchdown pass that didn’t fulfill all the “process” requirements for a TD in today’s NFL. Who’s making the rules, Eric Mangini?

Another fantasy opponent who scared me was none other than MJD, Marcus Jones Drew of the Jacksonville Jaguars. MJD did quite creditably with 98 yards rushing, but that’s all he had. Jags quarterback David Garrard decided to have the best game of his career, throwing three TD passes on the day.

So my fantasy team survived a rather moribund performance from its quarterback, Drew Brees, and a horrendous effort thrown in by Percy Harvin, who couldn’t connect with Bret Favre all day long. Instead I got lucky, saved by touchdowns scored by players having just average days or worse.

Jahvid Best had two scores but just hadf 20 yards rushing. Knowshon Moreno managed to get one by the Jags and Ahmad Bradshaw and the G-men came on in the second half of their game to start rushing effectively.

The Jets were horrible on offense and no team ever deserved defeat more than that bunch against Ryan’s former team, the Ravens. It turns out you can’t play great when you have no left guard. And you can’t just maul receivers running down the field, imagine that, what a concept! The Jets went down the hole with their braggadocio.

Of course, all things aren’t going my way. The Yankees won last night in a big game against the Rays, a game the Rays could’ve won despite everything else, if Carl Crawford hadn’t pulled a Carlos Beltran by trying to steal third on a short fly ball with two outs and a shaky Mariano on the mound. I truly dislike the Yanks and still do. The Rays are the better team. Crawford should have known better.

And I was terribly disappointed with the performance of the Niners against the lowly-rated Seattle Seahawks. The Niners were as bad as the Jets. Maybe Pete Carroll really can coach in the NFL. And maybe Mike Singletary isn’t as good a coach as I had hoped.

Dallas looked really awful in their debut and, once again, Wade Phillips helped them lose the game with a ridiculous fancy shmancy (and chancy) play call on the last play of the second quarter, allowing the Skins DeAngelo Hall to recover a fumble and score for the only Skins TD of the game, in what turned out to be the game-winner. Not that I’m a Cowboys fan but Miles Austin is my fantasy #1 wide receiver and at least he had a good game.

So life is good. The Mets aren’t getting any worse, the Giants have a defense and the NFL kicked off with a bang. And the Yanks look vulnerable to me.

Friday, September 10, 2010

More On Mets (Get It?)

Okay, you’re expecting some Mets news here so here it is…..the Mets still stink. They are a little more fun to watch though. And taking 2 of 3 from Washington sure beats losing another series. Of course, it hardly matters now.
Thank God they’re not still pretending to contend. Now we can watch all the rejects in their farm system. Of course, the new guys are outperforming anything the regulars ever put together. So what does that tell us?
Bad things can happen when a team sits on its laurels, watching every significant deadline for adding players go by with barely a twitch. A flower grows way faster than the Mets moved this year.
Of course, that can only mean the ownership, aka Jeff Wilpon, has totally lost faith in the general manager. At this point, that can only be a good thing. Omar Minaya is a personable fellow but he hasn’t done much towards fashioning a championship team. I think a break is needed for Mr. Minaya. Have you ever considered fishing, Omar?
Let’s recap, 2006 was a tough year, 2007 was even tougher, 2008 was incredibly bad, 2009 was a hard luck year and 2010 has been another tough year. Hmmm, not good. There are a lot of teams that have done more with less.
Minaya does have time left on his contract though. If Wilpon hasn’t been in a spending mode, to say the very least, he may not jump at the idea of firing Minaya, who he seems to like despite his failures. There are some signs though that the two of them are already planning for next year, even if Minaya may not be the ultimate recipient of the benefits of the plan.
Here’s my take on the Beltran, Perez and Castillo flap (they didn’t attend a hospital team visit). Wilpon is greasing the skids for getting rid of all of them. If he can turn the fans against these guys, principally Beltran as it’d be difficult to suggest any Mets fans like crazy selfish Ollie or poor picked-on Luis Castillo, it’ll be easier to trade him for a lesser player, and let’s face it, these are the Mets, they’ll inevitably make a bad deal.
I’ve put my request in for a second baseman. I think this Tejada little guy is really slick with the glove, and I like watching him in the field, but he’s really got to show me something the rest of the way. I hope he does. If you’re going to have a weak spot in the lineup, it may as well be at second base.
Some team will want Beltran though, especially if they can negotiate a lesser rate for his services. Carlos Beltran, minus the attitude, would be a hell of an asset for any team. He’s still the most feared batter in the Mets lineup. Of course, that’s saying very little.
It’s fun to speculate though. The Mets could use a pitcher for sure, even if Dickey and Niese continue their winning ways. Who knows what Mike Pelfrey can do going forward? Not even Mike could tell you. But he is a hard-throwing right hander, as is the new kid Mejia. They probably mix things up pretty well for the two left-handers, Santana and Niese, and then of course, there’s the knuckleballer Dickey, who doesn’t even resemble other knuckleballers!
The Mets aren’t that far off really from some respectability. The bullpen isn’t really that bad with Takahashi and Purcell and perpetual Pedro out there. You can have the other two guys. So they need a couple of relievers on the pitching side of things.
On the hitting side of the ledger, the current depth chart shows a left field of Lucas Duda and Chris Carter, a ridiculously weak spot. Carter’s a pinch-hitter. Who knows about Duda? But Jason Bay will be back and maybe he’ll return to some semblance of a power hitter. In center, there’s Beltran or his replacement, In right field there is Pagan, not too shabby.
Then there will be an infield of Ike Davis at first, Tejada at second, Reyes at short and David Wright at third base. Davis will hit better next year for sure and he hasn’t been so very bad this year either. I don’t care for his backup though, this Hessman fellow. A nice big guy who can hit for power would be a nice addition.
It looks as if Josh Thole is a keeper at the catcher position too. He seems to be a tough out when the pressure is on. The Mets don’t have a lot of talent in that area….that’s for sure. Maybe Beltran’s replacement can at least be a guy with good stats for hitting with runners in scoring position. And maybe Bay will start pulling his weight.
The Mets could use a good utility guy in the infield too, a Ryan Theriot type guy who can play second base or shortstop. Even better would be a power-hitting second baseman/shortstop, even one that would just backup Tejada on one of his prolonged slumps, or one of Reyes’s prolonged injuries. How about Theriot and that magnificent Jose Uribe?
When you think about it, what makes the difference between the Mets and the Padres right now? And the Padres, despite their recent slump, may still outlast everybody else in the NL West. The Phillies and the Braves, though, would still be the class of the division unless Bay and Pagan and Wright and Reyes and even Ike Davis all hit and play to their capabilities.
Okay, enough about the Mets. It is, after all, football season. The Giants open up against the Panthers. They’ll lose, but by a less embarrassing score than last year, when the Panthers killed them 41-9 in the last game played at the old Giants Stadium. Look for Carolina to take the opener, but only by a 27-24 score.
Those crazy Jets finally signed Revis. But that doesn’t mean they’ll win Monday. Ravens 17-13.

Thursday, September 2, 2010

Mets? Who Cares?

It’s hard to even discuss the Mets at all these hot dreary days but when other distractions are so much more fun than watching weak groundouts and strikeouts, it’s really impossible. Why concentrate on a minor league team?

Besides, football’s starting, the baseball races for playoff spots are heating up, there’s a hurricane coming and the U.S. Open is proceeding along without Serena just fine, thank you.

Fantasy Football dominates my attentions early on in the football season every year as my fan interest in the Giants and Jets isn’t revved up yet. My draft was this past Sunday and I’m as happy as the proverbial pig in the poke, as hopeful as Bob Baffert on Derby Day. With Drew Brees as my quarterback, all other considerations become secondary.

And Drew will have Miles Austin to throw to on my scrappy Dem Crabs team. That’s on one side, the other will be manned by another speedster with hands, a fellow named Percy Harvin, as in Favre to Harvin on a Vikings team missing Sidney Rice as a big secondary target. Will that help his numbers?

If Harvin can’t face all those double-teams, I can only throw in the likes of Bobby Meacham, whose numbers can only improve this year as he competes with Marques Colston and Devery Henderson for playing time. Or, if Bobby should falter, there’s Indi’s Austin Collie to steady those numbers, like one of those center horses on Ben Hur’s chariot team.

Running backs were hard to come by once again for me this year, having gone for a qb with my first pick, but Denver’s Knowshon Moreno is one of those young backs who figure to get even more carries in his second year for the Broncos. The Lions’ first round draft choice, Jahvid Best, looked terrific in one exhibition I’ve seen, and the Lions will put points on the board this year, having beefed up that offense to protect Calvin Johnson. Besides, if the Lions were so stuck on the likes of Kevin Smith as their main horse in the running game, they wouldn’t have wasted a first-rounder on good ol’ Mr. Best.

At tight end, it would be difficult to be happier. San Francisco’s Vernon Davis is one of the leaders of that Niners offense and Alex Smith seems to really like throwing his way, to the tune of 965 yards and 13 touchdowns last year. If he and wideout Michael Crabtree don’t kill each other on the practice field, they should both enjoy good seasons.

Managing to grab the Ravens as my defensive unit was fortuitous as that unit has been a top unit year after year for a lot of years. And the Bengals figure to continue to surprise in 2010 after showing up big last year.

If Brees should go down, and I hate to even think it could happen, I nabbed Donovan McNabb as his backup at quarterback. McNabb didn’t waste any time twisting his ankle but should return soon to an offense that has potential, what with Clinton Portis hitting the line hard and Santana Moss returning to prominence now that Jason Campbell is gone, along with his slow reactions to just about every situation. I feel for the Raiders who seem to think he’ll revive their game.

But one of the best features of this formidable fantasy squad of Crawlers is the reserve squad at running back. For a Giants fan, playing both Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs at running back sure seems like a relatively riskless running alternative, not to mention what positive effect it’ll have on my viewing pleasure on Sundays. Grabbing Lawrence Tynes as my kicker will just enhance the overall effect.

As for the G-Men’s chances this year, I can’t be that optimistic after watching the defense have trouble with the Ravens on third downs. While the pass rush shows every sign of improving, they weren’t quick enough to protect that linebacking and secondary crew. The offensive line hasn’t really clicked yet either and injuries along the front could just prolong their coming together as a unit.

They can’t possibly be as bad as they were last year, can they? With the return of Phillips and no more CC Brown , things have got to be better. But will they be good enough to beat a Panthers team in the opener, one that thrashed them late last year 41-9? Their QB, Matt Moore had a ridiculous 139.8 passer rating in that one, completing 15-20 and throwing 3 TD passes. Some pretty smart football folks think Carolina will be the most improved team in the NFL this year.

Oh, and Jonathan Stewart rushed for 206 yards in that one. The Giants stopped nothing that day. Can Antrel Rolle and Keith Bulluck make that much of a difference? The answer is “maybe”. A new defensive coordinator and scheme could make all the difference. But it’s the players that have to make the difference on the field. The depth chart still shows Phillips only backing up at safety and Jonathon Goff is the middle linebacker. I don’t expect the Giants to win that opener, or the one against the Colts after that. It’ll be all uphill for the G-Men this year.

The Jets are a different story. They’re a hard team to like, to be honest. Tannenbaum makes me sick. So does that Scott fella. On the other hand, it’s easy to like Sanchez at QB and Rex Ryan as the coach. But Darrell Revis was the star of the defense and Tannenbaum didn’t save any money to sign him. Yeah, you can say he was already under contract but as Michael Corleone once said, “C’mon Kaye, who’s being naïve now”?

The Jets were also incredibly lucky last year. That unprecedented luck of catching Indi and Cincinnati after they’d already wrapped up playoff spots won’t be repeated. And opening up against Baltimore and New England, and then to Miami, that’s no easy road either.

Mets? Who cares?