Wednesday, March 24, 2010

There'll Be No Crab Yankees

They’re still the Evil Empire. They always will be. I’m reminded of this today as Yankee fans are picking on the Mets at every opportunity. It’s not good enough to have your team finally break through after years and years and millions and millions spent on virtually nothing. They have to remind everybody how bad the Mets are.

And why? Francesa seems to be obsessing about relief pitching. He of course hasn’t watched a single pitch so far this year and is relying on his sycophant for info that he’s frankly too intimidated to give. He likes his job. He knows Francesa doesn’t want to hear anything good. My brother talks about Vegas odds, which is okay. Vegas didn’t pick the Saints either.

But I’m reminded too today of how much more interesting the Mets announcers are than those of the Yankees. They can actually say what they like, including pointing out Dwight Gooden’s recent problem with the law. But there is a chemistry there on that Mets broadcast team that’s just absent from Yankees broadcasts. And they can change the people but they’ll still be laboring under the strict guidelines of the Evil Empire.

Santana’s pitching today and I’m watching him now getting screwed on the corners by the home plate umpire. But he’s cool. He’s focused, as he is always. But he just gave up his first walk and the pitch wasn’t that close. Hmmm.

You can probably tell I’m psyched for the season opener. This is probably maximum psych time for me as my fantasy draft is tonight, something I always look forward to, and I’ll be drafting eighth in a ten-team league. This presents some interesting problems. It’s a good thing I’ve thought about it too, my objectives, my exclusions (any and all Yankees) and the importance of winning as compared to having fun.

There are only a few locks really. And some of those locks are guys I wouldn’t pick with a gun to my head. Arod for example. Teixeira’a another. Even CC Sabathia, a longtime Crab favorite (my fantasy team name) will be summarily shunned as he has joined the bad guys. But there are some very nice Yankee fantasy players, I must admit, in just about every one of the first five rounds.

One of the biggest factors though in selecting is that cost/benefit ratio of winning versus having fun. Prince Fielder, for example, has been a Crabs mainstay year after year. He’s even more valuable in this league as strikeouts count against you and walks are a positive. Fielder was terrific last year too and could be even better this year, still relatively young but with all that experience and maybe even a better Milwaukee team. And he’ll probably be there at pick 8.

But will he still be there at 13? I don’t think so. So it’s either pick him at 8 or I don’t get him. I figure 1-7 will be Pujols, Hanley Ramirez, Arod, Utley, Braun, Longoria and Teixeira. But Teixeira may still be there at 8 if fellow players feel about Matt Kemp as I do, which is over-rated. One good thing about passing him up is that there’re seemingly a million good fantasy first-basemen, any one of whom could have a bigger year than Teixeira.

But Fielder’s a first-sacker too. Do I really want to win this fantasy year? There surely aren’t too many shortstops or second-basemen that I’d like to have. And there are really just 3 catchers who seem to tower above the rest. Mauer’s availability at 8 presents a big problem, not just because he was the American League MVP but because he just got a huge contract, much more than I would have paid for him, and that tends to wreck a fella’s motivation, y’know?

Then Fielder is rated above some other very good players, Tulowitzki, Cabrera, and our own David Wright. Can David shake his power numbers in spacious Citi? And they did lower the fence or something, didn’t they? And he did hit .307. But he only had 72 rbi’s. That’s awful. If he improves 50%, that’s still just 108 and who improves 50% under almost any circumstances?

Tulowitzki is an interesting possibility. He’s a shortstop, a position of scarcity, an he had very nice numbers all around last year. But it was a career year for him, even though it has been a short career. He was hurt in 2008 and had relatively horrible numbers for half a season. The year before though, he had a very respectable OPS of .838 in his first full year as a player. But that stat is 100 points lower than he achieved last year. So what should be my expectation? It’s a real puzzler but I’d say somewhere between the .838 and .930, which would be a very respectable year indeed from a shortstop.

So Tulowitzki is still alive for consideration. I can’t take Jeter. I just can’t. Talk about career years!

Moving down the rankings, dangerous in itself, and having already passed not only on Yankees but also on Miguel Cabrera, who I don’t personally like, there is Ian Kinsler, a second baseman, also in short supply, and he’s had four relatively good years in a row. He’s a definite possibility, especially since his numbers should improve with Josh Hamilton coming back to that Texas lineup.

Should I consider a pitcher? Lincecum, Halladay and Greinke have a healthy ranking over the rest of the field. But they all pitched a lot of innings last year. And I don’t like taking pitchers early. They’re all tainted goods, y’know, from a fantasy viewpoint. Although I recognize the need for good pitchers, I think the variability of their numbers is totally unacceptable. I think, for the most part, you have to be lucky with pitchers, and I’ll be checking out their innings pitched, you can be sure.

But, no matter what happens, and there’s always a surprise, at least I won’t have any stinking Yankees.

No comments: