Wednesday, January 5, 2011
A Prescription For Violence
I mean…the Giants are going nowhere but home and the Jets will be facing the Colts. Except for the great Ohio State victory over Arkansas last night, all the Northern and Eastern teams got beat in the Bowl Games. Teams I rooted for, like the Rams to beat the lowly Seahawks, went down in a flurry of dropped passes.
And there’s no baseball news to get excited about, not if you’re a Mets fan. If you’re a Mets fan, the only question about who’ll win the NL East is whether it’ll be the Phillies or the Braves. The latest Mets acquisitions have been strictly lower-level at best.
But maybe the most depressing thing of all for a defensively-minded football fan is that I can’t fathom the Jets giving the Colts a run for their money. They’ve got the really accurate Manning, the one who figures everything out at the line of scrimmage and just picks a defense apart, especially the ones being tricky.
I remember feeling the same way about the Niners offense back in Joe Montana’s heyday. The Niners threw all those short passes that required no time at all to throw, using precision and timing to frustrate the best defenses of the day.
But our very own Giants team did beat that Montana-led offense. Guys like Leonard Marshall and Lawrence Taylor wouldn’t let Montana finish the game and just creamed those Niners receivers all day long.
You just can’t assume anything in football. The favorites tend to win most of the time but any of those locks can go down in a wave of violence and momentum. Arkansas showed that last night before finally succumbing to a brilliantly-executed zone blitz.
I don’t expect the Jets to beat the Colts. That is, not unless they just do the following:
1. Knock the crap out of anything they see in blue.
2. Hit those wideouts and tight end right off the line. Mess up that timing. If you give up something along the way (and it’s almost inevitable but just once would be acceptable), so be it.
3. Go for the 3 and outs. Get that defense off the field.
4. Don’t try to outsmart Peyton Manning.
5. Swipe at that ball when it makes sense. Otherwise just make the hard tackle.
6. Run the ball. Use Joe McKnight if necessary.
7. Protect Sanchez, use max protect if necessary, he only sees one or two receivers anyway.
8. Continue with step 6.
Braylon Edwards and Santonio Holmes seeking redemption won’t beat the Colts, Mark Sanchez’s suddenly good shoulder won’t make the difference, Rex Ryan’s making it a personal battle won’t carry the day. What’ll beat the Colts is a 60-minute football ass-kicking.
The Jets need to feel insulted going in there. They have to be pissed off. They should remember that Peyton didn’t recognize any personal battle with Rex. He wasn’t aware of it. Rex was below his radar on awareness. The Jets have to hit this guy. Clearly.
That ballyhooed offensive line has to perform, Ferguson and Mangold and Woody have to show up. If they think in terms of long drives and clock-killing and 3 and outs, they can outperform those guys in blue. They can hold the ball forever. LaDainian Tomlinson isn’t chopped liver. This is the game for which he was picked up in the first place.
The game plan is so important. It should be conservative.
For Reggie Wayne there is Darrelle Revis and for Garcon there is Cromartie. There will be no Austin Collie or Clark to worry about. There is every reason to believe the Colts passing game can be held in check.
It goes without saying (and I’ve tried up to now not to say it), the Jets have to stop any sniveling Colts attempts to run the football. I mean, it’s Addai and Rhodes, not Arian Foster or, dare I say it, LaDainian Tomlinson. And hell, isn’t that what Rex Ryan really knows how to do?
Peyton Manning can get flustered. The Saints proved that last year. If you keep the pressure on Manning (or really just about anyone not wearing a big S on his chest), he can go bust. Of course, the Saints were a lot smarter than this Jets defense has yet shown itself to be. But they definitely gave Manning less time to think as the game wore on, and yet they still covered everybody.
The Jets can’t be the Saints but they can be a smarter Jets. Rex Ryan can’t try to be Sean Payton but he doesn’t have to be Herman Edwards either. He has to rely on his “best team in the AFC”, play conservatively and not make the big mistake. He has to concentrate on making the first down in three attempts, and, if not, punt.
Peyton Manning has to feel the pressure on every pass attempt. Let him know there will be no downs off when he can stand back there and survey the field. There must always be someone coming for him. But, in addition to the pressure of every down, Manning has to be made to feel the pressure of the game situation.
If the Jets play the physical game they’re noted for and keep the pressure on Manning and that precision-passing game, they can be assured of either staying close or maintaining a lead very late into the game.
If they make no obvious mistakes, if they can get Brad Smith free just one time, or maybe even get another safety out of a Jason Taylor, if they can just “out-football” that Indianapolis team for 60 minutes, that Colts team can be beaten.
I’d love to see it, to make Peyton Manning “aware” of Rex Ryan and the Jets.
Monday, January 25, 2010
Ridiculous to Absurd to Tawdry
That the way the Jets lost it was really painful is beside the point. I’d never have expected either a 45-yarder out of the wildcat or an 80-yard Sanchez to Edwards bomb. Neither did the Colts, for sure. I hadn’t expected a Jets lead at all, at any point in the game. But then I didn’t expect the Jets secondary to look like the Giants for long stretches.
Jets fans are filled with hope now for next year, and everywhere it seems there is already talk of how great Sanchez will be next year. Although I’d have to agree that he’ll be better, I don’t think he’ll ever be much better than he was down the stretch this year. He looked good and played about as well as a quarterback could play….including yesterday. He’s got great feet, a good brain, and an accurate arm.
Remember Dwight Gooden? He was absolutely great early on, and everybody drooled about how much better he’d become. It never happened. Drugs happened. Same thing with Strawberry. My only point with this is to be happy with what you have. Don’t expect much more. If every Jet had played like Mark Sanchez yesterday, they’d have come out on top.
The same optimism is being shown for the Jets in general….how a pass rusher would obviate the need to blitz so much, how another cover guy like Revis would shore up that unit, how a healthy Kris Chambers would solidify the run defense, how another wide-out would provide some better targets for the rookie.
Well, the game is football. Anybody can get hurt and they usually do. Shonn Greene is a perfect example. Joe Namath is another. He was way better as a young QB than he was later on as his knees got taken out in Detroit, I think it was. Then he became rather stationary.
I’m just saying that what makes Sanchez so exciting is his feet, which are attached to his legs, and he already sports a brace on one knee. I’m certainly not wishing him ill but unless he has the luck of Brett Favre or Fran Tarkenton, or even Peyton Manning for that matter, he really can’t be much better than he was in the playoffs this season. He could certainly get more opportunities to shine. That wouldn’t be hard, but I won’t count on him getting much better in absolute terms. He’s been great.
When I heard that Lito Sheppard wasn’t starting yesterday, I cringed. I gave up hope that the Jets could win. The Colts had Lowery for breakfast, lunch and dinner. Pierre friggin’ Garcon made him look very bad. I can’t stomach corners who don’t look for the ball. That’s Lowery. I know the Jets were concerned about Sheppard against Manning, but give me a break….Lowery’s better?
The Saints-Vikings game was just ridiculous. The Vikings were better in every respect except for the turnovers. But you really can’t say that…turnovers are the biggest part of the game. So now we get to see the Saints play the Colts in the Super Bowl, the second-best NFC team for sure.
The only solace I can take from this game is that Favre got hit about a million times and looked bad in the game, especially down the stretch. I loved his cross-the-field INT to put an end to the regulation game. And I loved seeing him talk about retirement again…and his allusion to talking it over with his family. When you’ve already gone from ridiculous to absurd, what’s left…tawdry?
Let’s look at the game itself and Favre’s part in it. Favre blew a hand-off to Peterson from the ten-yard line that would have just about destroyed the Saints after Reggie Bush’s fumbled punt. Favre must’ve sensed Adrian may have scored on the play, meaning somebody besides him may have become the star. As it was, Peterson got three scores. Favre’s 2nd INT, as I’ve mentioned, closed any chance Minnesota may have had in regulation to win the game. His first INT was also in New Orleans territory just outside their 30-yard line. His QB rating for the day was 70.
Brad Childress deserved no better fate either as he managed to get too many men on the field at the critical juncture of the game, when the Vikings were in field goal range, only to be pushed out again, shortly followed by Favre’s INT. Furthermore, he never was able to control Favre.
New Orleans took the day and nobody was ever happier for that result than I was. But they didn’t do much against that great purple defense. They did take advantage of every opportunity though, or so it seemed. They won the turnover battle; they gave Brees time to throw; they played better than the Vikings on special teams overall, and they definitely held together as a team, something the Vikings can only wish for this Monday.
The Colts are currently 4 ½ point favorites to beat the Saints in the Bowl and I suspect that spread will only increase, especially if people start really analyzing these games. The Colts have everything, although you may say they have no running game. I think they elect to have no running game. They run only well enough to enable Manning’s play action passes. They have a terrific offensive line, a very good defensive line, and fast linebackers and secondary. All those assets are in addition to some very fine wide receivers, Reggie Wayne, Austin Collie and Pierre Garcon. The Colts are very similar to the Vikings in that they have all that versatility.
What the Colts don’t have, though, is personality. And, if I see any more colorless quotes from that coach of theirs…..UGH!!
Saturday, January 23, 2010
Ground and Pound or Lost and Found
Last week I had the Saints and my score prediction was even pretty close but, even though I had joked that it was possible, I didn't expect the enormity of the Saints rout of the Cardinals. I had the Jets to cover but certainly not to win and, of course, they pulled it out. I had the Cowboys and Ravens too and both teams were awful, more awful than I thought possible., the biggest surprises being the ferocity of the Vikings and Colts defenses, against both run and pass.
So here they come again....those very tough defenses facing off against very different teams and very different circumstances too. The Colts were home against the Ravens and they'll still be home for the Jets. The Vikings have to travel to New Orleans to face the Saints.
Sat 6:40PM – New Orleans Superdome
SAINTS -3 1/2 Vikings
The Saints will be at home again but can be had, especially if Darren Sharper is limited. If the Vikings can run the ball all day, the game will be over. If that Saints offense is on the sidelines for long stretches and then, when they do take the field, they find the likes of the Vikings defense facing them, it'll be a very tough day, home or away.
So, for the Saints, they'll need big days from Jonathan Vilma, and no-names Sedrick Ellis and (a real tongue-twister now) and Remi Ayodele in the middle. Somehow, I don't get an extraordinary boost from that lineup, especially if Sharper is limited. (Who knows really with these injury reports)?
I'm pretty sure Reggie Bush won't have quite the success he had last week (vs the Cards) against the Vikings. Brees will do the best he can without a running game, but the pressure from the Vikings, not to mention the situation, will wear on him. And my least favorite quarterback, Brett Favre, won't find the pass rush from the Saints any more troublesome than was that of the Cowboys. He may even have time to throw some kisses to his fans in the stands, yes, even in New Orleans.
The Vikings can run the ball too, bigtime, with a big, strong, fast fellow named Adrian Peterson.
Percy Harvin's supposed to be sick. I believe it but how sick can he really be? Sharper will probably be his old self too, but Favre won't have to throw. Third and three, he can still give it to Adrian. (as in yo). Can we say the same thing for Reggie Bush? I don't think so.
The over-under is at 53, with a 3 1/2 spread, so the great betting populace is saying the score will be around 28-25 in favor of the Saints. I say, "Nah."
The Vikes run and run and run some more. Favre will pass off the run, of course, if just to bolster his stats, and get a couple of TD's. Figure Peterson for two and they might even get a field goal here and there. I'm figuring the Vikes can score 31.
The Saints will have big trouble on the ground, and then there'll be all those big and fast Vikes defensive linemen in his face. I figure they can score 3 TD's tops and a field goal or two. That's 27.
I hope I'm wrong but logic says the Vikings take this game. I hate logic too. I'd love to pick the Saints. But all those Saints I mentioned will have to play better than I give them credit for right now. So, sadly.....it'll be:
Vikings 31-27
Sunday 3PM – Mall of America Field, Minneapolis
COLTS -8 Jets
I saved the best for last. I can't even call them "my Jets" although I would like to. My sorry-ass team is the Giants.
The Jets played their best game of the season Sunday to overtake the Chargers, who couldn't stop the run at all. I'd expect the Colts to do a better job. The pressure will then be on the rook to produce in the face of some very mean defensive linemen that even those big and talented Jets offensive linemen will have trouble handling.
Peyton Manning will be looking at the same situation (trouble running the ball) but he's been through it before. He'll be careful with the ball more often than not, and he may even throw it to some Jets once, but if he limits the INT's to 1, I figure he'll be able to put two in the endzone (to any of his receivers) at least and add a couple of field goals. That'd make 20.
Not that the Jets won't make a lot of stops. They'll have to. I'm expecting a lot of Jets punts because they'll need to pass more than run against these Colts, especially towards the end of the game. They'll run with some success and will most likely get a TD or even two, but only because they are pretty tough in the red zone. I just don't expect that many drives to take them into Colts territory.
I'd figure the Jets to get in scoring position a maximum of five times. But I'd be guilty of over-optimism if I didn't expect either a fumble or INT on one or two of those drives. Shonn Greene hasn't fumbled recently but that could easily change. And Sanchez had just the one pick against the Chargers but these are the Colts.
I figure the Jets for 2 or 3 field goals and 2 or just 1 touchdown. It'll be that kind of day. Figure the Jets to get 20 points tops. That result would take the game into an overtime period. More likely than not, though, there'll be some "lost and found" to go with that "ground and pound." And the Jets will get around 16.
But the game still has to be played and this game is almost eerily similar to the last two playoff games these Jets have played. They were about the same class of dog against the Chargers away and a lesser dog vs. the Bengals away but a dog nonetheless.
But they didn't play like dogs. They just played relentlessly. Ground and pound indeed. The Colts are a little undersized, they say. And I guess they could get ground down by this Jets running game too. But I just think the Colts won't fold. They faced a pretty tough Ravens running game and came out on top.
And then there's the outrageous fortune the Jets have experienced, with the ball bouncing crazily and the field goals going hither and yon. And there's crazy Rex Ryan to turn up the Jets. And I think he's just lucky too.
But, if I had to pick just one team, it'd be the Colts in a close one. Logic says the Jets will cover, as I picked them to cover and not win versus the Bengals and to cover but not win versus the Chargers. Geez, how many times can you roll seven? (And I sure hope they can do it one more time). But my brain says:
Colts 20 - 16
But if it can stay "ground and pound" rather than "lost and found" for the Jets, they'll do it one more laughingly ridiculous time.
Wednesday, December 16, 2009
The Worst and Best of 2009
I don’t even care whether he is or not but it seems the AP is trying to get in the good graces of Tiger, amidst all the well-deserved media (and universal) criticism. If not for his good graces, the award was given to make sure he’d return to the game so that AP writers would have something to write about, as if there’re no other good candidates for a little more press.
I’m not a moralist but Tiger has lived a despicable existence for a married man, not because he fooled around but because he fooled around and took almost no pains to disguise the fact. It was okay with Woods to embarrass his wife and his kid…..over and over again.
So spare me if I spit on your award, AP. I’m happy not to be a part of it.
Speaking of despicable human beings, Bret Favre was hailed in a recent Newark Star-Ledger article that boosted him for MVP, as if there were no other candidates, as if there were nobody performing better, not Peyton Manning, not Drew Brees or Philip Rivers, to name just a few.
The writer in question also seemed to think all the criticism was unfounded, a theory that just doesn’t wash.
Let me say it one more time. Favre ruined the Jets season last year by playing hurt. He hid his arm injury to keep his consecutive games record alive. He didn’t care what he did to the Jets season. That he had a perfectly willing Jets management to assist him in that regard isn’t really the point. The man needed an arm operation LAST YEAR, not in the off-season so that he could come back totally healthy with his rocket arm working perfectly well for his old team’s biggest rival.
Favre certainly has been great this year. And he was pretty great for a lot of years. And maybe he would be a viable candidate for NFL MVP this year. But he cheated the Jets and the Jets fans. He took a playoffs season away from them. That’s my problem with Favre. The fact that he never met a camera or microphone he didn’t like has nothing to do with it.
Let’s see….who else can I pick on? Oh, I know, how about Serena Williams, the latest quasi-star to get a break from the U.S. press and the powers that be in tennis.
She deserved a suspension for her ugly emotional display (and arguably, assault upon the lineswoman) at the U.S. Open. She got a fine instead. She now has the green light to ruin everybody’s good time at another major tennis event. Along the way, we can listen to her whine that the whole ugly matter should be put to rest.
She not only ruined the Open, she also robbed the winner, Kim Clijsters of Belgium, of her victory on the court, a hard-fought and decisive victory, one for which Williams had no ready excuse. She hadn’t launched her crippled act. She hadn’t tapped into the trainers-session delays she had used in several important past matches to demoralize opponents who had finer tennis skills but couldn’t match her for gamesmanship and rules-twisting.
There is still some good in the world though. As this is the Christmas season, let me now focus on some positively good people, some people who aren’t just talented but who always seem to personify hard work and class.
How about Mark Teixeira? Teixeira did nothing but good things for the Yankees in 2009, earning every bit of his money and hustling all along the way. I’ll always remember his scoring from first base with the winning run against the Mets on a fly ball that 99.5 % of the time gets caught. But since it was Luis Castillo, the ball wasn’t caught. Teixeira stole one for his Yankees, not with his considerable talent but with his remarkable hustle.
How about Eli Manning? All Eli does is try to win. He can’t quite manage the fine sense of humor his brother has always had. And he doesn’t have his brother’s accuracy to be perfectly honest.
Eli just had exactly the confident but humble demeanor his team needed in 2007, one that he still brought to the table this year and last, no matter that he was robbed first of his wide-outs and then of his defense. You never hear a word of complaint from Eli, although I suspect his receivers hear about their route-running from time to time.
How about Drew Brees? Here’s a true man of stature who lacks only height, a guy who has been “dissed” throughout his lifetime by football experts, a guy who kept Philip Rivers on the bench in San Diego, where he started his pro career, for two full years, a guy who should have won the Heisman in 2000 but lost to the taller Chris Weinke from Florida State (but did finish ahead of LaDainian Tomlinson and a fella named Michael Vick).
When Brees was eligible for free agency in 2006, the Chargers elected to let him go with nary an unkind word from Mr. Brees, to the Saints, who Brees lead to their first NFC Championship Game in his first year.
Ever since his acquisition, Brees has been top notch offensively, starting every game for the Saints and gaining over 4400 yards in his first two years before topping the 5000 yard mark in 2008. This year, Brees is once again among the NFC leaders in yardage and touchdowns, this despite the fact that the Saints are running more than ever in their quest for that elusive Super Bowl victory.
Unlike Peyton and Brady, though, Brees throws to everyone ,usually making sure every wide-out gets his touchdown each game, making household names of Marques Colston, Robert Meachem and Devery Henderson.
He’s the best of 2009 and King of Bacchus too!
Tuesday, November 24, 2009
Good But Boring-Bad But Funny
But you know I will.
Even a casual observer would have to agree that, at the very least, the Jets are a very entertaining team. The quarterback is a nut job, the head coach is even funnier and everybody else just tries to keep their heads up. And that’s okay. Anybody who really expected playoffs this year was just dreaming.
The Giants’ defense stinks. That’s really all you can say. But, with Eli firing bullets and lobs and showing a magnificent touch, and with his bevy of receivers seemingly open all the time, we could really see some shootouts in our future, and that’s not a bad thing either.
I guess that’s the biggest difference between these two teams. The Giants play a great football game, on one side of the ball at least, but they’re a bore off the field. The Jets turn in stinker after stinker on the field, but they’re a barrel of laughs off of it.
Did anybody expect the Jets to beat the Patriots again? I know I didn’t. I did think they’d beat the spread, which was 10 ½, a ridiculous spread, given that the Jets beat them the first time they played.
My mistake was that I thought they’d attempt to cover Wes Welker. At the very least, I figured they’d harass him coming off the line, or knock the bejeezus out of him when he caught the ball, thus discouraging him from perpetrating any further aerial offenses against them.
But that didn’t happen. Welker ran here and there unmolested. When he caught the ball, which was quite often, he either ran for big yardage or hit the ground before he could be pummeled.
And, last but certainly not least, the rookie quarterback started bad, came back a little, and then totally came undone.
But that’s what Bill Belichick teams do to rookie quarterbacks. That Sanchez somehow escaped that fate in the season’s first matchup with New England was nothing short of miraculous. Sanchez tried to win the game, though, and along the way, he threw a perfect long pass to Cotchery in the end zone that brought the Jets back to within 10.
But he started the game very badly by throwing that INT that went for a touchdown. That’s a killer for a team to start the game in a 7-point hole right off the bat. But he brought the team back before imploding and, all in all, I’d rather watch him than his backup. The kid still shows a lot of promise. He reminds me of Joe Montana in a lot of ways, the scrambling, the arm, the demeanor….he just needs the same head, and that will come.
Rex has promised to address his young QB’s turnover problem personally. That’s what makes you love him. It may not be the right thing to do but ya gotta love the attitude. Rex has taken as many shots as has Sanchez, and he’s apparently taken them to heart.
So the Jets are a riot, if not a successful one.
The G-Men are a playoff contender but a boring one. I still don’t think they’ll make it to the playoffs though. Their defense won’t allow it. When their opponent has needed to score, they have scored. That’s not a good sign. And, while Eli was able to take advantage of the sieve of a Falcons pass defense, I can’t imagine he’ll be able to do the same this Thanksgiving against the Broncos.
Philip Rivers and his Chargers did though. But they have a strong defense and a better running game. They have LaDainian, we have Twinkletoes. They have Sproles, we have Bradshaw. Their offensive line blocks for the run as well as the pass. Ours blocks quite well for the passing game but the holes just aren’t there in the running game, and even the powerful Bradshaw can’t run through a wall.
Regular readers may wonder why I keep picking on Jacobs. Well, aside from picking up that 4th and 1 against the Pats in that wonder-filled Super Bowl, he’s done nothing up the middle. He has no explosiveness whatsoever, runs high and doesn’t have that much leg strength. What he can do is build up a head of steam and really roll, once he gets an opening.
That’d be great if they used him a little differently, I guess, but the Giants don’t. And they usually have better options in Smith and Manningham, Nicks and Boss and, well, just about anybody else….Hedgecock?
So I can’t be bullish on this Broncos game. We won’t be seeing Simms, we’ll get their first string of Kyle Orton, and the Broncs do have some receivers who can hurt us, Marshall and Gaffney and Royal and a nice tight end who can catch. The Broncs will be able to pass and they may even be able to run. They also have some nice defenders against the passing game, aka Champ Bailey and Brian Dawkins. Hell, Ty Law is their second-string corner.
Can our G-Men win in a shootout? I don’t think so. The only way they win this game is if they’re able to run the ball and stop the passing game. I don’t think they can do either. (I just deleted a whole passage ripping Sheridan, the defensive coordinator in name only, a new butt-hole). But who’s to blame when the defense has no clue?
Almost everything else NFL-wise went my way though this past weekend so I’m not complaining. My picks against the spread went 9-6, and, better yet, my best bets were flawless and I finally won my imaginary ten bucks. I won in both my fantasy leagues and still have a shot at the playoffs.
Not the Giants.
Monday, November 16, 2009
An NFL Upside Down Day
Then, as if to reaffirm a ridiculous point, I watched a good defensive team with a 6-point lead go for a 4th and 2 from their own 28 yard line with just a little more than 2 minutes left on the clock. The team’s gamble went down the tubes as their delighted opponent scored a touchdown and extra point, leaving their bewildered opponent just 13 seconds to do something about it.
Of course, everybody knows what I’m talking about. The Jets defense, blah blah blah, wonders of the modern football world, whose spokesman just about a month ago asked how the media could dare to ask a question that didn’t hint at his team’s greatness, were trying their best to allow the Jaguars to score.
The Jags were down by two points with time swiftly running down. They were driving through the Jets defense as if they were seashells caught in a wave from a Nor’easter. They couldn’t stop the run and they were clueless against the pass, a team on the run, a beaten defense whose best option was to concede the touchdown quickly so that their offense would have time left to score.
Of course, they screwed that tactic up too. The Jags, immediately detecting the ruse and needing just a field goal to win, proceeded to fall down at the one, and then run around in circles for a few downs so as to totally run out the clock as they kicked the winning field goal.
Witnessing this whole thing was disgusting if you had any good feeling for the Jets at all after their high-mindedness of the preceding weeks. That they could continue their braggadocio even after having lost several games in every conceivable fashion seemed unreal. They were a team in denial.
Well, they know who they are now. Thank all the football gods. They found out who they were in that last Jacksonville drive when they went belly up. Their self-proclaimed great defense had no thoughts of forcing a fumble or getting a pick, or stopping the Jags dead in their tracks to force a long field goal. They just gave up.
Yeah, I know all about the strategy. I know it could have worked out, as unlikely as that seems to me now. But I hate the whole idea. It stinks, it smells bad. If I were a true Jets fan, I’d be embarrassed by the very notion.
A team has to have a personality. The Jets personality had become that of a strong defensive team. After three undefeated weeks followed by strong defensive efforts in several unfortunate losses, that personality was still largely intact….but not after yesterday. Now, they’re just a bad team, no good on offense, no good on defense and certainly no good on special teams.
The theme I kept hearing after yesterday’s disgraceful exhibition was that the team needed to finish, meaning that they had to stop losing games in the fourth quarter. And while that is certainly true, it isn’t the whole story. The Jets need better discipline all around. They need better communications before, during and after the game. They need to somehow accommodate for their lost presence in the middle of their defensive line. And they need to catch the ball.
They probably can’t accomplish all those things this season. But what they can do is try to re-establish a personality, even if it’s that of a brash but formidable defense. The Jets can either fortify that defensive line or change their schemes somewhat to make up for that weakness. They’ll then be something again, that something being a strong defensive team.
I won’t mind terribly if the Jets have a losing season. I rather expect one now. What I would mind is to see a team that is lost, a team that doesn’t know what it is or what it is trying to be. Yesterday’s tactics smelled of that.
As unlikely as it seems to me, Bill Belichick was guilty of the same mistake. He drank whatever Kool-Aid Peyton Manning was handing out and decided that the probability of his offense making a fourth and two exceeded that of his defense stopping Peyton Manning and the rest of the Colts offense on a final drive.
By doing so, he fired up the Colts defense and, unavoidably really, alienated his own defense. That may play into the hands of the Jets or some other opponent down the road for the Pats. If he punted, he may still have lost the game. But Manning would have had to be great once again against a strong defense. And he’d have had to take his Colts a long way, probably around 65 to 70 yards.
But he didn’t give his defense that opportunity. It’s too bad really. It’s out of character too. A man noted for his brilliant defensive schemes decided to gamble it all away on one offensive play, and in so doing, he challenged another good defensive team to be great. It was upside down, inside out and backwards, for anyone really, but especially for Bill Belichick.
And that’s probably the reason it didn’t work.
I’d like to see the world righted again. Rex Ryan should have a dominant defense and so should Belichick. A rookie quarterback shouldn’t be dictating terms to the media, even if he were a good quarterback, which Sanchez so far hasn’t really shown.
I’m quite sure Belichick would have punted against the Jets.
And Horse of the Year should be a tie. Both Zenyatta and Rachel Alexandra proved their greatness.
.
Tuesday, September 15, 2009
NFL - Perspective and Indicators
We’ll need to see a few more weeks of football before we can really begin to figure anything out. For example, the heretofore lowly 49ers upset the NFC Champion Arizona Cardinals. That’s a good indicator that they’ll be better and they have a good defense but did Arizona just have a bad game?
I just finished watching the Chargers look horrible while managing to just edge by the Raiders in Oakland. The Bills just absolutely threw one away against the lucky Pats. Are the Bills really that improved or are Brady and the Pats still rusty?
A really confusing game was the Bengals-Broncos match. I had expected the Bengals to be a possible playoff team this year while I thought the Broncos would be much better than everyone expects them to be, after the Cutler-Orton trade and the unhappy Brandon Marshall fiasco. But the Broncos won the game on a tipped ball in the last seconds in a very low-scoring game. What the heck does that mean?
Most Giants fans will remember the first three weeks of the 2007 Super Bowl season. They were marked by an atrocious Giants defense, a laughably bad defense. Then they magically transformed into something else. So, even when it seems pretty clear what you’re witnessing, it ain’t necessarily so.
But there are indicators. In the Jets case, all the indicators are good. The offensive line was dominant, the receivers aren’t that bad after all, and Mark Sanchez found a lot of them with no problem at all. (Well, there was that one pick but who’s counting). But how bad is that Houston secondary? Only time will tell.
The Giants indicators were good too but they certainly weren’t electric, especially on offense. While I know they played it smart, as they should, it was pretty much a yawner, except for that pass rush. The Umenyiora forced fumble and return for a TD was really good to see but then that was offset by the Skins fake punt for a TD. Does that mean anything? Will that be an isolated incident?
The Cowboys beat the Bucs by a good margin but their run defense looked kind of shaky, especially early. And Romo looked fantastic on those TD’s to Williams and Crayton but how bad was the Bucs pass defense? It looked pretty bad to me. And is Cadillac Williams really that tough? Hard to say, as Derrick Ward (remember him?) looked pretty good too.
We’ll get a whole giant helpingful of perspective next week though, as the G-Men face off against the Boyz. Early indications are that it will be a war. Only after that game will we be able to see just how good the Giants defensive front really is.
Then there’re the injuries, really season-shaking injuries, as the Bears lost Brian Urlacher and the Eagles lost McNabb for at least a couple of weeks. (I’ve had a cracked rib myself and my guess would be three weeks). Can the Eagles win with Kolb? Can the Bears survive without Urlacher? (My guess would be no).
Most distressing for me was the Vikings game against Mangini’s Browns. Adrian Peterson ran wild in the second half and Brett Favre looked fine, much to my dismay. I was kind of hoping for some “look-out” blocks in the Vikings offensive line and some bone-jarring sacks of Favre but it just never happened.
But are the Vikings really that good? Gimme a break, that was the horrible Browns on the other side of the field. Drew Brees threw 6 TD passes but, come on!! That was the winless Lions the Saints were shellacking.
The point is made, I think. The only thing that’s sure is that you’d better not place too much faith on what you thought you saw in Week 1. The eyes can be deceiving, especially in the wild and wacky world of the National Football League.
Football is more unpredictable than other sports, if just because of emotion. It’s a game dominated by emotion. And injuries. And both of those things are fairly unpredictable, even if you can almost guarantee that certain players will get hurt sometime in the course of the year, like McNabb, for example.
The Eagles at least have an answer for McNabb. And, because they weren’t too sure about either Kolb or Vick, eventually, they made a very smart move in picking up Jeff Garcia, who was very reliable in backing up McNabb a couple of years ago. The Eagles seem pretty serious about their chances of winning it all this year. All indications would seem to point in that direction anyway.
Aside from injuries, however, there is that emotion that makes the difference between winning and losing. It seems to come from the top too, from the ownership and the management and the quarterback. For examples, I’ll give you Dan Rooney and Rex Ryan and Tom Brady, or even Eli Manning, in a pinch.
Dan Rooney’s Steelers are always good, they always seem to play with passion and they always seem to have a good coach who believes in fundamentals and effort. Rex Ryan’s defenses always played with emotion and now his team, the Jets, seem to have been touched by his magic wand. And Brady just won’t lose (except when he’s on his back a lot), as he proved again last night.
So I’m psyched, definitely, for an eventful season. The Jets play the Patriots, the Giants play the Cowboys and all will be right with the world. I can forget about the unhappy Mets season, the incredible ugliness at the U.S. Open, and look forward to two tough teams in town. Now.
Thursday, August 27, 2009
Who's the Fantasy Number 1 ?
Now, some of you are probably asking yourself why I’m focusing on quarterbacks. What about the consensus #1 pick, Adrian Peterson, the great Minnesota running back? There are some great runners out there, and aren’t you concerned about the shortage of running backs, the traditional approach of fantasy pundits for the last ten years or so?
Well, first you have to understand that, while most fantasy leagues award passing TD’s with just 4 points, which tends to equalize a quarterback’s value with running backs and receivers, Squander Football insists on awarding a TD with 6 points; a touchdown is a touchdown, right?
Well, I’m ok with that notion, what the hell, we can come to grips with anything, this league doesn’t have any duffers, these guys have been doing this for years and years. The commissioner, my brother John, was an old Strat player and, many times you could find him happily playing it down the basement when he was maybe 6 years old.
John disagrees, by the way, with my theory that this points system should humongously skew the draft towards qb’s. The deciding factors should be scarcity at individual spots and point increments between the leaders and those following.
He maintains that the overall points difference between Drew Brees, the top fantasy scorer last year, and the rest of the qb’s, doesn’t exceed that of the top running back, Peterson, from the rest of the running backs. And that may even be so, I won’t be listing the stats here, too boring, but what happens when you list the all the available players and sort by total fantasy points?
Of the first 15 players of all types last year, a running back doesn’t appear until number 9 on the list. And it isn’t Peterson, it’s DeAngelo Williams, the Carolina RB back that tore up the league last year. Of the next 6 spots, 4 more are qb’s before you get to 15, Adrian Peterson’s rank. The points differential between Drew Brees and Adrian Peterson was 361-233 or a whopping 128 points. Even spread out over 16 weeks, that’s a little more than a TD per week. The top back scored 272 points, still 89 less or about 5 points per week.
In a snake draft as in Squander, the number 1 picker’s next pick doesn’t occur until pick 24. So, taking a qb, I’d get 360 for Brees and then be faced with selections worth 210 points. That gives me 360 plus 210 or 570 points. Taking a running back first, I’d get 270 for the back and then probably the 10th or 11th best qb, currently Eli Manning, at 231 points. That’s basically 500 points overall. So I pick up 70 points overall by taking a QB first. I don’t think there’s any two ways about it.
And furthermore, I’d have Brees and either a top wide receiver or a middling running back versus having Peterson and Eli Manning. While I really like Eli, he can’t be a top fantasy qb playing for Coughlin and the Giants, a shame really, but there you have it. Imagine Brees and a top receiver, maybe even a Larry Fitzgerald or Randy Moss. Or, I’d have Brees and a middling running back, say a Ryan Grant or Ronnie Brown.
It doesn’t really matter, running back or wide receiver, as I also get pick 25 in a snake draft. So the real choice is how to combine the picks for maximum advantage. My next pick wouldn’t occur until pick 49 (and then 50), at which point the talent is significantly thinned. A quick look at the list shows players such as Roy Williams and Larry Johnson there, not too shabby.
But the significant thing is that statistical edge going into the third round if I take a qb first; it doesn’t even have to be Brees, it could be Philip Rivers or Adam Rodgers who both scored about 335 fantasy points on the season, still way ahead of the top-rated running back at 270.
There are flaws to this approach, of course, the biggest one being the fact that what happened last year will not necessarily happen this year. Statistically, it makes more sense to look at career performances among the qb’s, which of course would add to the luster of guys like Brady, who was hurt last year, and Peyton Manning, the only Manning in town, so to speak, when you’re talking fantasy.
Then there is aesthetics, the art of the game and my enjoyment of the season. There is also the fun of the draft itself to keep in mind. I’d get a kick out of surprising the numbers 2 through 5 pickers, and maybe even a psychological advantage. For example, I could take Brady and really discomfit Snake Eyes, picking at number 2.
There is embarrassment to consider too, but I don’t really care about that so much. Last year, for example, I took Tony Romo with the number 1, an unconventional choice that drew some jeers but I was never really sorry, this despite Romo’s missing of a few weeks and then returning at only about 70%. Romo is a lot of fun to watch and you never know what starlet he’ll be bringing to the stadium.
And, speaking of last year, though I lost every game Romo didn’t start (backup Delhomme was truly horrible), I made the playoffs and won at least once in the playoffs, even though I needed a savvy running back pickup to muddle through.
But running backs will be a secondary consideration. There are too many good ones, too many split backfields and the wildcat too. The quarterback stirs the drink in Squander.
Sunday, January 11, 2009
No Tears for the Giants
I can’t really get that upset about this. The Giants decided they really didn’t need Plaxico that badly. They saw their chance to save some money and took it, a calculated risk. So they lost on that one, but, what the heck, the Stadium’s still selling out (without cheerleaders) and they did get the number 1 seed. So they probably feel pretty good all in all. So why should I get upset.
I’ve been hearing already that the Eagles wanted it more, that from one of the Giants. So maybe it’s true. But I don’t think so. It was just the Eagles and the Giants before they had Plaxico, and before they had Strahan and Umenyiora. A nice little defense and a nice quarterback and some possession-type receivers to complement a massive ground attack.
But it’s not like the Eagles had to guess what was coming that often. It’s not like they had to worry that some really big guy with long arms who could catch a lot of passes with just one hand would streak down the sideline or across the middle. Those Eagles have some nice secondary people too, don’t they?
One of them, a fella named Samuel, (you remember Asante, he used to be with the Pats and then went to the Eagles, he intercepted one on the Vikings last week for a touchdown?) intercepted a Manning fling in the first quarter and took it a very long way. Eli raced about five feet and waited for Samuel around the goal line. Not that I blame him, but that didn’t show that much intensity.
Intensity, just a hair short on intensity yesterday. The defense played great, all things considered, even without any vestige of the pass rush they had last year. But they couldn’t stop everything and it seemed as if they were on the field a lot. (Upon checking, the Eagles ran 68 plays to the Giants 61, the time of possession was about even).
I know most people probably support the Giants decision on Burress. A lot of people don’t like endzone celebrations either, or a guy making a snow angel in the endzone. They like discipline and respect for the game, and showing up ten minutes early all the time. All that stuff.
Of course it wasn’t all about the lack of a Plaxico. The Giants could’ve played better, and smarter, and made it closer at the end. If they did everything right, they may have pulled out the win, but I don’t think so. Derrick Ward could’ve caught a couple of passes and made me happy. There were a couple of misses in the field goal department, and I thought a little lack of intensity on those fourth down plays. Those were really killers.
The Giants were beautiful last year though, when they had all those guys, before Osi got hurt and Strahan retired and Plax shot himself in the butt. This year’s version couldn’t have played New England so tightly in the last week of the season, or beaten Tampa so easily. They never would have got by Dallas as that team did, which sent them off to frigid Green Bay and then on to beautiful Arizona.
So maybe it’s better that this team exited early. Why prolong the agony? Philly’s a better team right now, and I have to think they’ll beat Arizona next week. Whether they can beat either Pittsburgh or Baltimore is problematical, but they certainly show a lot of potential.
The Eagles passing game sure seems to have come a long way in a short period of time. Curtis and DeSean Jackson and Avant and Celek, and then Westbrook too. Lots of targets, much as the Giants seemed to have had last year. The Eagles did everything just right yesterday.
They have the secondary to match up with those Arizona receivers, the offensive line to deal with those tough defenses of whatever team emerges from the AFC, either Pittsburgh or Baltimore. They do all right against the run too. If they can handle that big horse, Jacobs, they might be able to handle Willie Parker or Willis McGahee, even if those two are a lot shiftier.
True fans will wonder about next year. Receivers just don’t grow on trees, and it takes a long time, usually, before they can become really effective in the passing game. Maybe they’ll trade for an established star as they did with Burress years ago. Or maybe Burress will remain with the club, who knows?
Of course the Giants have done quite well in the draft. Look for them to draft another defensive lineman or maybe a linebacker as a number 1. That’s if they don’t decide they need another running back. After all, earth, wind and fire didn’t exactly demolish the Eagles….just some earth and a little bit of wind.
The Giants were very respectable yesterday. That’s more that can be said about the Panthers, the #2 seed that lost to Arizona so easily, with a mad quarterback and two great running backs who never got used.
They looked better than San Diego did as well. The Chargers held the Steelers even for a while before the Steelers turned up the pressure. Of course, the Chargers had their excuse, too; no LaDainian was an awfully big handicap, even though little Darren Sproles did get into the endzone until after the issue had already been decided.
As for those people and radio voices who kept saying “The Giants are the better team so they should win”, what games have you been watching the last few weeks?
Monday, December 1, 2008
NY Super Bowl My Butt
Think of the last few Super Bowl teams. New England, Indianapolis, and our own Giants. QB’s…Brady, Peyton, Eli…..Coaches….Belichick, Dungy, Coughlin. I could go on, traversing every position on the field but the Jets just don’t measure up to those Super Bowl teams.
Not to be unkind but the Jets succumbed to the theories of their own greatness. After beating the Pats and then the Titans, they really thought they were hot. It didn’t occur to them, maybe, that the Broncos were a totally different team, a team with a real live passing game.
It didn’t occur to them that there may have been a big difference from Titans QB Kerry Collins to Broncos QB Jay Cutler. All the way down their respective rosters, the Broncos are superior to the Titans. The Titans are just a running team. Stop the run and you stop the Titans.
The Jets weren’t prepared for any adversity on Sunday. You could tell that from the opening kickoff to the final gun. It was cold and rainy too, and Favre just really wasn’t interested. After all, who would notice a clunker thrown in on the last Sunday in November? It wasn’t a team in the AFC East, they had a cushion in the East on the Pats and the Dolphins, it was time to coast past the Broncos.
Surely, they thought, we could stop their running game. Surely, then they would stop the pass. Well, it didn’t turn out that way, of course, but the Jets didn’t react, even after it became quite apparent that the Broncos weren’t going to be content with just holding the lead in the AFC West. They wouldn’t be making any turnovers this day.
The Jets just weren’t prepared to play. I don’t put the blame on Mangini, although he can’t be held blameless. The same goes for Favre who was pretty dreadful in the rain yesterday. It’s a team responsibility, heart. The Giants have it, clearly. The Steelers have it, the Chargers don’t have it, the Jets don’t have it.
I wouldn’t even mind if the Jets had come back. But they didn’t. They were content to tuck their tails between their knees and go home. They are a seriously-flawed team, not from a talent perspective as from a character point of view.
Chad Pennington, I might add, did not have a character problem and still doesn’t, as evidenced by his bringing the Dolphins back to respectability. His Jets played with a lot of heart but they didn’t have the talent in his time. Now, they clearly have the talent but not the heart. A large part of the heart got shipped to Miami.
You see the lack of character all over the NFL. Plax’s gun incident is a very clear example. How easy it is for a man to go from the heights to the depths when he is conspicuously lacking character. All those physical attributes that make him such a talent on the football field couldn’t save him from the debacle that will be his life from here on.
It’s a good thing that Burress has been such a small part of the Giants’ success this year. The team seems to be carrying on without missing a beat. The beat goes on and it will go on without Burress. But it may not go on against the best teams in the NFL, a team that has a balanced offense and defense, a team such as the Pats were last year before they were beaten by the Giants with Burress.
Is there a team though that meets those qualifications this year? In either the AFC or NFC? I don’t think so.
You could possibly make a case for the Steelers. They have Ben Roethlisberger at QB, and some talent at the receiver position. They have a formidable defense too, and, in the person of Troy Polamalu, they have the most talented player in either league. They can run the ball too, but not as well as a Super Bowl team should. Their offensive line doesn’t seem strong enough to support either part of their overall offense.
Their potential to fulfill that Super Bowl contender position will be seriously challenged next Sunday when the Cowboys come to town. The Cowboys have Romo back, and he does not seem to be the Romo of last year, not from the perspective of character.
Romo seems to have grown into a leader this year, his injury and the subsequent Cowboys demise seems to have challenged his whole being, and his performance in the games since his injury seems to bear that out. He is one of those players who can make everyone around him better, at least this year.
The Colts have always been a team with character. They were hit hard by injuries this year, and seem to be a little slow in coming back from them. Their performance against the Browns yesterday wasn’t that of a playoffs contender though, unless it was the Browns that made them look bad, a Browns team that seems to lift its game against better opponents, as evidenced by their victory over the G-Men this year.
Who else is there? There are Carolina and the Bucs in the AFC, the Panthers with conspicuous talent on both sides of the ball. But I don’t think Carolina has the heart. They are a team much like the Jets. The Bucs may have the character but not as much talent as is required to reach the heights, at least on the offensive side of things.
A team that turned in that performance against the Broncos yesterday could never reach the Super Bowl. Forget about it. They probably already have.
Wednesday, January 23, 2008
Cold Hands, Hot Foot
What was Sunday's Giants victory over the Green Bay Packers really about? To me, after watching the tape, it was all about many cold hands and one foot. Whose hands? Well, Plaxico Burress's were in evidence all night. There was also, of course, Amani Toomer. And the hands that didn't LOSE a fumble all night, and, actually, for three games now, those of Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw. There were also the hands of Eli Manning, using one glove only, throwing lots of completions right on the button. There were illegal hands to the face too, but more than any others, today I would like to pay tribute to the hands of TE Kevin Boss and special teamer Domenick Hixon. Boss recovered Jacobs's fumble at the goal line. Hixon recovered still another R.W. McQuarters fumble amongst several furiously groping men in green.
The foot, of course, belonged to Lawrence Tynes, who, after failing to put the ball through the uprights on two previous occasions, finally solidly kicked the hell out of that last kick, putting out of his mind the things that went before, like a bad snap, like a scolding from his coach. That singlemindedness put the Giants back into the Super Bowl. It also solidified his career, I'm sure, but that's quite beside the point.
Was there ever a game that was more fun to watch? The lead changed hands seemingly all night long before finally evening up at 20 with almost the entire fourth quarter (and ultimately overtime) to go. The Giants dominated, it seemed, all night long, time of possession, yards on the ground, yards in the air, receptions, quarterback pressures, yet here they were, tied with a team that still, after all, boasted the world's finest quarterback and about five dangerous receivers.
But the "hands of the night" award was fated to go to arguably the MVP of the Giants post-season run, namely cornerback Cory Webster, who snagged Favre's errant pass to his favorite receiver, Donald Driver, and streaked down the sideline, setting up the G-Men for that last miracle kick. I don't say "miracle" lightly either. It was in zero-degree weather, the man missed two shorter kicks earlier and he had to listen to some vitriol from Coughlin on at least one of them.
All was forgiven in the aftermath of the victory, of course. Coughlin joked that they just had to move the ball back a little farther. Also forgiven in those joyous post-game moments, I'm sure, were the R.W. McQuarters two fumbles and Sam Madison's impossibly poorly-timed unsportsmanlike penalty that killed still another Giants drive.
What's abundantly clear after these three playoff wins is that this really is a team. You can't pick one player on whom to focus. The quarterback, of course, gets most of the credit, but what's new? And who's more deserving? Eli had been the whipping boy all year for talk-radio, especially one mean-spirited cretin who can't pronounce most English words over one syllable, for former Giants running backs, for TV pitchmen disguised as football analysts....for most of the NY print-media. He's certainly answered all his detractors, controlling the game, setting a selfless example, and showing the same coolness in the pocket that so annoys all of those pickers of bones. Where was Eli to be found, directly after the game? Looking for someone in the stands, concern written all over his face. It's easy to play for a guy like Eli.
But, even given Eli's performance, what about the coaching staff, in fact, the entire management team ! There is a GM who seemingly picked all the right players, a head coach who has his team ready to play each week, an offensive coordinator choosing all the right plays, a defensive coordinator who no quarterback can quite figure out, and owners who just keep smiling.
And what about these new players? Tight end Kevin Boss, in addition to recovering that critical fumble on Sunday, has been a huge 6'7" presence, he gets open, and he catches everything coming his way. Ahmad Bradshaw missed eleven games and came back running hard and fast. Steve Smith, the wide receiver, has been a magnificent third option behind Plaxico Burress and Amani Toomer. Justin Tuck stops the run and pass. Even players we never heard of like that cornerback Pope have stepped in without missing a beat. Domenick Hixon, Madison Hedgecock, the list goes on and on.
The veterans have performed as well as, if not better than, ever. Michael Strahan, Burress and Toomer, the entire offensive line, the leader of the defense, Antonio Pierce, who made a miraculous game-saving stop on a screen pass in Sunday’s game, wrapping up the running back and his blocker until help could arrive. The veteran offensive line has stood up to the rigors of the Patriots, Bucs, Cowboys and now Packers. Feagles, the punter, is a marvel at 41 years of age. And of course there’s Tynes.
If I were the Patriots, I’d be a little nervous. For, as perfect as they have been, for eighteen games now, can they continue that perfection for another game against a team that’s only been perfect for four? Even though the Pats beat the Giants in that last game of the season, they only won barely, and that on a rather unfortuitous quirk of fate, a blown coverage after an injury to a cornerback.
And the Giants are now a curious mirror of the Pats. There is balance everywhere, an offense with two good running backs, a strong offensive line, and a bevy of receivers. There is a defense with a gunslinger mentality, a reflection of its new leader. Its special teams have truly been special down the stretch. But, most of all, they play as a team, they win as a team. Sound familiar?








