The 2009 NFL Season Predictions

Well, here we are. After seeming months of pre-season, fantasy picks and predictions, and playoff picks by everybody with half-a-brain, the 2009 NFL season finally kicks off tonight when Super Bowl champ Pittsburgh faces Tennessee. It’ll be on NBC at 8:30 PM.

But that’s hardly the top of the NFL news. That belongs to Big Ben’s rape hearing and Bret Favre’s biceps tendon. It seems as if nobody really cares that much for the opener. My take? The Titans lost Haynesworth and they’ll start paying for it tonight.

Because the season starts tonight, I need to get my own predictions done. And, because I like to take a different slant on most things, I decided to use the Vegas over-under numbers as my starting point. After all, those numbers should constitute that which most people feel are the capabilities of each team in the hunt (and aren’t they all).

My Methodology will be as follows: I’ll first layout the Vegas over/under lines by division, taking note of the playoff teams. Then I’ll outline my exceptions to those playoff predictions, based on those o/u lines that seem out of whack. Then I’ll expound on the buggest surprises of the year. Who will be the 2009 version of the 2008 Arizona Cardinals or the Miami Dolphins?

Ok, here goes”

O/U NFC East Over or Under-Rated My Rating My Predictions
10 Philadelphia Div champ 11 Div champ
9.5 NYG Wildcard 1 Over-rated, young wideouts, new def. coord 8.5
9 Dallas Tie wildcard2 Over-rated, changes, schedule, coaching 8
8 Washington 8
NFC North
9.5 Minnesota Div champ Over-rated, switch with Green Bay 8.5
9 Chicago Tie wildcard2 9 Wildcard 1
8.5 Green Bay Under-rated, switch with Minnesota 9.5 Div champ
4.5 Detroit 5
NFC South
9 New Orleans Div champ 10.5 Div champ
8.5 Carolina 8.5 Wildcard 2
8.5 Atlanta 8
6 Tampa Bay Under-rated, good OL, Cadillac & run game 7.5
NFC West
8.5 Arizona Div champ 8.5
8 Seattle 8
7.5 SF Under-rated, Singletary, not Crabtree difference 8.5 Div champ
6 STL 6




O/U AFC East Over or Under-Rated My Rating My Predictions
12 New England Div champ Over-rated, defense 10 Div champ
7.5 Miami 8
7.5 Buffalo 6
7 NYJ Under-rated, defense 8
AFC North
10.5 Pittsburgh Div champ 10 Div champ
9 Baltimore Wildcard 1 Under-rated 10 Wildcard 1
7 Cincinnati Under-rated 8.5 Wildcard 2
6.5 CLE 6
AFC Central
10 Indianapolis Div champ Way over, coach, wr’s 8.5
9 Tennessee Wildcard 2 Over, def suffers 8.5
8.5 Houston 8
8.5 Jacksonville Under-rated, OL 9.5 Div champ
AFC West
10 San Diego Div champ 10 Div champ
6.5 Denver Under-rated, coach 8
6 Kansas City 6
5.5 Oakland 5.5

Okay, then, the biggest surprises in the NFC will be the SF 49ers and Green Bay Packers. On the downside, just as surprising to some will be the demise of the Vikings and Bret Favre, or the slide of the Giants.

The prime consideration here is coaching. I believe people make a difference, and nowhere was that more evident than in the case of Mike Singletary. He took over a reeling team last year and managed to turn it around. He faced up to the coddled stars and made that team play like its coach….tough.

The Packers made good management decisions regarding Favre and Rodgers and those right moves will show up in the standings. Their running back, Ryan Grant, is healthier and Rodgers looks way, way, way better than Favre. He’s younger and he may even be smarter. Their defense will be more aggressive.

The Vikes will suffer as the Jets suffered last year with Favre, the single most over-rated player in NFL history. If it’s not his biceps, it’ll be something else, and whatever it is will entail having a lot of Bret in front of the cameras. This team will be totally demoralized.

The Giants are just given too much credit for their offensive line and running game. There are new receivers here and probably still no breakaway threat. The Cowboys have similar problems except that their defense will be even worse. Romo’s best receiver is the tight end, nothing to write home about.

In the AFC, the Jets will be better but not quite good enough to make the playoffs. Baltimore will become more of a throwing team and score more while Cincinnati, behind a rejuvenated Carson Palmer, and the return of Ochocinco to prominence.

Jacksonville may start slowly but their attention to their offensive line problems will pay off more and more as the season progresses. MJD will get his yards and scores, but the QB David Garrard will benefit even more from the additional protection. Denver will improve as well but not enough to be playoff-bound.

Green Bay, New Orleans and Philadelphia would appear to be the main contenders for the NFC Championship, and I’d have to give the nod to the Eagles. Baltimore will once again challenge the Steelers for AFC pre-eminence and this time they’ll prevail.

The Eagles will battle the Ravens in the Super Bowl. They’ll win it too, and Michael Vick will have a lot to do with it. But Donovan McNabb will win the Super Bowl MVP.

Mangini won’t have too much affect on the Browns but he’ll bring them back to respectability if not unpredictability. And Josh McDaniels will be vindicated for his loss of Cutler, even though Cutler will have success with the Bears in Chicago. The Broncos will be an improved team, making fewer mistakes and playing better defense.

I’ll be rooting for the Giants, Eli and the rest, of course. I just wish I could be more optimistic. These receivers, though, just don’t excite me and Eli will be lost without his big target. Opponents will stop the short game and there’ll be nobody to execute anything longer, not with enough consistency anyway.

And they’re already missing Steve Spagnuolo, who will eventually become a household name in Saint Louis.

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