Tuesday, April 15, 2008

Paper Tigers?

In this topsy-turvy world of the 2008 Major League Baseball season, perhaps no statistic is more anomalous than is the 3-10 won/loss record of the Detroit Tigers. The Tigers were the pre-season favorites of quite a few pundits to be World-Series bound in October, but, with their heavy hitters off to a bad start and their pitching looking horrendous, the band-wagons are empty....everyone's jumped off.

<>But not your intrepid reporter. Not yet, I won't. There are just too many good players on that team, not flash-in-the-pan players either, guys who have done it year after year after year. Magglio Ordonez, pictured above on the right, and Miguel Cabrera, seen celebrating last night's hard-fought victory over the Twins last night with Brandon Inge, have been way too consistent over the years for me to believe they won't finish batting over .300 with 30 or so homers and well over 100 rbi's.

Shortstop Edgar Renteria, acquired this off-season from the Braves, is another acknowledged consistent batter and smooth glove that just won't be denied in 2008. Gary Sheffield may be getting a little long in the tooth and Pudge, good old Ivan Rodriguez, will be 37 in November, but "consistency " could be their middle-names.

Even their lesser-celebrated players have been really consistent. First baseman Carlos Guillen, who currently is the only Tiger NOT slumping with a .359 batting average, has batted over .300 since 2004 in every full season he has played. Much the same could be said for Placido Polanco, manning the keystone bag, although without the gaudy power figures.
Jacque Jones, Brandon Inge, Marcus Thames....there is just too much talent and pride in the Motor City to believe the Tigers are done. <>A huge missing link for Detroit has been centerfielder Curtis Granderson. Granderson scored 122 runs for the Tigers last year. Even though Granderson also hit 23 home runs, that may not be the glaring missing statistic. Just as the Mets faltered badly when their sparkplug Jose Reyes virtually disappeared, so have the Tigers missed their speed guy. Although Brandon Inge has performed admirably in his stead, he does not possess the same tools, and very likely the more needed ingredients in the Detroit chemistry.

And what about the pitching? Okay, let's take a look. Justin Verlander, with a current ERA of 6.52, has a career mark of 3.87. Nate Robertson, now at 7.84 has performed at a 4.64 clip, not great but not horrible either. Jeremy Bonderman is actually doing pretty well this year with a 4.58 ERA. Kenny Rogers, at 6.75 this year, has a career mark at 4.21. Dontrelle Willis is a hurler I do worry about. But how many starters do you really need?

The Tiger relief pitching has been just as bad thus far, but injuries are to account for that. Upon their return, the Tigers should be just fine. Fernando Rodney and Joel Zumaya aen't exactly chopped liver. They'll return very soon. Todd Jones, their beleaguered closer, has had 37 saves or more for the last three years.

The manager is the best part of all. Jim Leyland has been too competitive a person and manager for this reporter to believe he'll ever give up on his guys, or, better yet, let them give up on him and one another. Leyland won a World Series for Florida back in 1997 and an American League pennant for a less talented Tigers team just two years ago.

Mr. Leyland, who had seen too many slow starts in his career to over-react to this one, finally lost it a couple of days ago. His team responded. In a game that threatened over and over to get out of hand, the Tigers just kept coming back. Down 5-zip in the 6th, they scored four to come within one. Then, down 5 again the next inning they managed to put one more run on the board. After finally holding the Twins in the 8th, they came back to score 6 big runs in the bottom half to put the Twins away for good, but not before having to endure a final scare in the ninth.

<>Three things could possibly derail the Tigers Express. One is relief pitching, of course, and, if Zumaya and Rodney don’t produce upon their return, there will be trouble. No team can endure the emotional upheaval associated with consistently falling behind, or, even worse, taking the lead only to fall behind later in the game. <>

The second is the successful return of Curtis Granderson…122 runs is a heck of a lot of runs to take out of a lineup, per se, but how many more runs are lost when your table-setter never does his job? In a sport saturated with statistics, to everyone’s delight, there’s a poser for you.

The third is pitch selection. The Tigers can’t be as free-swinging as they would like if they want to win the AL Central. They have to work the opposing pitcher so that they can face tired pitchers in the 6th inning and beyond, much as their opponents work the Tigers pitching staff. In short, despite having all that heavy lumber in their lineup, they still have to want to win. They have to try as hard as their opponents. The best teams year after year work the pitchers, and if the Tigers don’t or won’t, they won’t win consistently.

Is it possible that there are too many stars in that lineup? It’s certainly a possibility. Just looking at the standings this year tells us that. Look at the teams who were picked to lose, or lose AGAIN, teams such as Kansas City, St Louis, Baltimore and Pittsburgh. It’s no accident that lesser-talented teams always seem to have better beginnings than their more talented counterparts. They’re trying harder.

If the Tigers had become complacent, I think this horrible start may actually wind up to have served a useful purpose. They won’t let it happen anymore. They’ve seen how hard it is to win games in this league.

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