For Want of an Outfielder...

As bad as the Mets looked against the Cards, there are a few reasons to look forward to the rest of the season. This feeling was reaffirmed after a close look at the differences between our locals and the best team in baseball right now, the Tampa Bay Rays.

Say "Rays" and most baseball people in the know will think "pitching", as Mike Lowell of the Red Sox did the other day when asked if he thought the Rays will be around for the entire season. The Rays' ace, Scott Kazmir, is now 7-3 with a 2.28 ERA . Their number 2 is hard-luck James Shields, just 6-5 but with a 3.70 ERA and one hell of a right cross. Three, four and five are named Garza, Jackson and Sonnanstine and have combined for a 19-13 record with an ERA around 4.00. Just those 5 guys have fanned 342 batters.

Say "Mets" and most people will think "mistakes", but their response earlier in the season, at the very start, would have been "pitching". And Johan Santana has been great halfway through with a 3.01 ERA but just a 7-7 record. Number 2 starter Oliver Perez, despite his ups and downs, is 6-5 but with a relatively high 4.98 ERA. Starters 3, 4 and 5 are currently listed as Martinez, Maine and Pelfrey. Their combined record is 15-14 and, if Pedro's currently anomalous 7.12 ERA isn't included, Maine and Pelfrey are just a bit above a 4.00 ERA. And those five have struck out 328 batters.

The Mets compare favorably to the Rays on the relief front as well. Billy Wagner has an ERA under 2.00 while saving 18. Troy Percival has one more save but sports an ERA of 3.54. The Mets main setup guy, if they can be said to have one, is Duaner Sanchez. His ERA is just 3.89 thus far. The Rays main setup guy has been J.P Howell, who sports a more respectable 3.00 ERA. The Rays other relievers, Wheeler, Glover, Hammel, Miller and Balfour don't outshine the Mets group, statistically at least.

Despite Aaron Heilman's problems, for example, his ERA is just 4.68. I would have expected a much higher number. But Mr Heilman has apparently thrown a lot of good innings too. I must admit to not recollecting those quite as well. In any event, the Mets have a nice mix of relievers, with lefties Feliciano and Schoenweiss and some quality in Joe Smith. All in all, the Mets relief staff outshines that of the Rays.

So the Mets staff compares pretty favorably as a whole with that of the Rays, on an overall basis, at the very least. So why are the Rays sporting the best record in baseball while the Mets wallow in the muck and mire of the NL East?

It's the outfield. The Mets have only two real live major-league outfielders. I'm referring to Carlos Beltran and Ryan Church of course. Most teams have three, never mind the Rays. Endy Chavez is a defensive specialist. He's batting .248 but has just 6 rbi's. That's ridiculous. Marlon Anderson is batting .196 with almost no production of any kind. There's hope for Fernando Tatis who, after all, can boast of a .283 BA but his production has tailed off lately. And then of course there's Moises Alou, the Carl Pavano of outfielders.

The Rays not only have three genuine outfielders, they're pretty good ones, among the best in the American League. Carl Crawford, BJ Upton and the tandem of Gross and Hinske, sometimes supplemented by Jhonny Gomes have scored 177 runs and driven in 166. Although Metsies Beltran and Church have combined for 93 runs scored and 89 ribbies, Chavez, Anderson, Alou and Tatis have combined for just 35 runs scored and 32 runs batted in.

The Mets picked up Trot Nixon, nice move but he's on the DL already. The Mets still need another outfielder desperately, one who can produce runs, not just a warm body opposing pitchers can target as a second pitcher in the lineup. The situation wouldn't be so critical, maybe, if the Mets were stronger at second and behind the plate. But they're not. The Mets lineup can definitely be worked, quite easily.

The Mets infielders compare favorably to the Rays from a production standpoint, Longoria vs Wright, and certainly Reyes vs the Rays shortstop Bartlett. At second base, Castillo's stats are about even with those of Iwamura and at first base, Delgado surprisingly has better numbers than does Tampa's Carlos Pena.

The Mets infield defense has been pretty bad though. Third baseman Wright's FPCT is just .942. Longoria's is .975. Shortstop Reyes is at .966, Bartlett at .972. At second, Castillo has a FPCT of .980 while his counterpart on the Rays, Iwamura, sports an incredible .997. Delgado's FPCT isn't really that bad at .988 but Pena's is ten points higher.

<>So, it comes down to picking up an outfielder, a real live outfielder who can produce and who is not named Alou. Or Caspar the friendly ghost. Not a defensive guy who’ll cringe with runners on base, or a retread from another decade. I’m talking about a man (or woman) who could legitimately expect to vie for a starting position on a major league club.

And the infield defense needs to pick it up, beginning with Wright. There is reason to believe that they will. Wright’s current .942 is 12 points lower than his numbers for the last two years. Reyes’s .966 is 16 points lower than his .982 from last year.

<>As for Delgado and Castillo, Manager Jerry Manuel has already outlined a plan to substitute Tatis for Delgado as a defensive replacement late in close games. That change should alleviate the lack of range shown by both men on the right side.

It seems relatively simple. The Mets need to make a trade for an outfielder. Maybe they could use one of those good relievers as bait. Come on, Omar, make a few calls