Well, here we are. After seeming months of pre-season, fantasy picks and predictions, and playoff picks by everybody with half-a-brain, the 2009 NFL season finally kicks off tonight when Super Bowl champ Pittsburgh faces Tennessee. It’ll be on NBC at 8:30 PM.
But that’s hardly the top of the NFL news. That belongs to Big Ben’s rape hearing and Bret Favre’s biceps tendon. It seems as if nobody really cares that much for the opener. My take? The Titans lost Haynesworth and they’ll start paying for it tonight.
Because the season starts tonight, I need to get my own predictions done. And, because I like to take a different slant on most things, I decided to use the Vegas over-under numbers as my starting point. After all, those numbers should constitute that which most people feel are the capabilities of each team in the hunt (and aren’t they all).
My Methodology will be as follows: I’ll first layout the Vegas over/under lines by division, taking note of the playoff teams. Then I’ll outline my exceptions to those playoff predictions, based on those o/u lines that seem out of whack. Then I’ll expound on the buggest surprises of the year. Who will be the 2009 version of the 2008 Arizona Cardinals or the Miami Dolphins?
Ok, here goes”
O/U NFC East Over or Under-Rated My Rating My Predictions
10 Philadelphia Div champ 11 Div champ
9.5 NYG Wildcard 1 Over-rated, young wideouts, new def. coord 8.5
9 Dallas Tie wildcard2 Over-rated, changes, schedule, coaching 8
8 Washington 8
NFC North
9.5 Minnesota Div champ Over-rated, switch with Green Bay 8.5
9 Chicago Tie wildcard2 9 Wildcard 1
8.5 Green Bay Under-rated, switch with Minnesota 9.5 Div champ
4.5 Detroit 5
NFC South
9 New Orleans Div champ 10.5 Div champ
8.5 Carolina 8.5 Wildcard 2
8.5 Atlanta 8
6 Tampa Bay Under-rated, good OL, Cadillac & run game 7.5
NFC West
8.5 Arizona Div champ 8.5
8 Seattle 8
7.5 SF Under-rated, Singletary, not Crabtree difference 8.5 Div champ
6 STL 6
O/U AFC East Over or Under-Rated My Rating My Predictions
12 New England Div champ Over-rated, defense 10 Div champ
7.5 Miami 8
7.5 Buffalo 6
7 NYJ Under-rated, defense 8
AFC North
10.5 Pittsburgh Div champ 10 Div champ
9 Baltimore Wildcard 1 Under-rated 10 Wildcard 1
7 Cincinnati Under-rated 8.5 Wildcard 2
6.5 CLE 6
AFC Central
10 Indianapolis Div champ Way over, coach, wr’s 8.5
9 Tennessee Wildcard 2 Over, def suffers 8.5
8.5 Houston 8
8.5 Jacksonville Under-rated, OL 9.5 Div champ
AFC West
10 San Diego Div champ 10 Div champ
6.5 Denver Under-rated, coach 8
6 Kansas City 6
5.5 Oakland 5.5
Okay, then, the biggest surprises in the NFC will be the SF 49ers and Green Bay Packers. On the downside, just as surprising to some will be the demise of the Vikings and Bret Favre, or the slide of the Giants.
The prime consideration here is coaching. I believe people make a difference, and nowhere was that more evident than in the case of Mike Singletary. He took over a reeling team last year and managed to turn it around. He faced up to the coddled stars and made that team play like its coach….tough.
The Packers made good management decisions regarding Favre and Rodgers and those right moves will show up in the standings. Their running back, Ryan Grant, is healthier and Rodgers looks way, way, way better than Favre. He’s younger and he may even be smarter. Their defense will be more aggressive.
The Vikes will suffer as the Jets suffered last year with Favre, the single most over-rated player in NFL history. If it’s not his biceps, it’ll be something else, and whatever it is will entail having a lot of Bret in front of the cameras. This team will be totally demoralized.
The Giants are just given too much credit for their offensive line and running game. There are new receivers here and probably still no breakaway threat. The Cowboys have similar problems except that their defense will be even worse. Romo’s best receiver is the tight end, nothing to write home about.
In the AFC, the Jets will be better but not quite good enough to make the playoffs. Baltimore will become more of a throwing team and score more while Cincinnati, behind a rejuvenated Carson Palmer, and the return of Ochocinco to prominence.
Jacksonville may start slowly but their attention to their offensive line problems will pay off more and more as the season progresses. MJD will get his yards and scores, but the QB David Garrard will benefit even more from the additional protection. Denver will improve as well but not enough to be playoff-bound.
Green Bay, New Orleans and Philadelphia would appear to be the main contenders for the NFC Championship, and I’d have to give the nod to the Eagles. Baltimore will once again challenge the Steelers for AFC pre-eminence and this time they’ll prevail.
The Eagles will battle the Ravens in the Super Bowl. They’ll win it too, and Michael Vick will have a lot to do with it. But Donovan McNabb will win the Super Bowl MVP.
Mangini won’t have too much affect on the Browns but he’ll bring them back to respectability if not unpredictability. And Josh McDaniels will be vindicated for his loss of Cutler, even though Cutler will have success with the Bears in Chicago. The Broncos will be an improved team, making fewer mistakes and playing better defense.
I’ll be rooting for the Giants, Eli and the rest, of course. I just wish I could be more optimistic. These receivers, though, just don’t excite me and Eli will be lost without his big target. Opponents will stop the short game and there’ll be nobody to execute anything longer, not with enough consistency anyway.
And they’re already missing Steve Spagnuolo, who will eventually become a household name in Saint Louis.
.
Thursday, September 10, 2009
Monday, September 7, 2009
I Love Labor Day!
I love Labor Day. What could be better for a sports fan? First of all, performing any actual labor is practically forbidden and what could be better than that? But the sports tableau is unbelievable, especially if you like tennis.
Now I’m watching this little mercuric Melanie Oudin drive this Russian crazy, and being that it’s Nadia Petrova, that shouldn’t be that hard. Ms Oudin is playing smart, taking full advantage of her fitness, moving Petrova left and right, up and down, and she kicked her butt in the second set tie-breaker.
I’m not ordinarily a jingo, but I find myself saying, “move that fat Russian” at every opportunity. But I have an excuse. This little fireball inspires some loyalty; she plays so hard!
But enough about tennis. The great thing on Labor Day is that you can switch between the Yankee game and the tennis, or you can watch the Mets encore against the Cubs with Mike Pelfrey apparently trying to prove he really doesn’t stink. (I had reamed him a new butt in my last article.)
The Yankee pitcher, C.C. Sabathia, is similarly easy to root for (even if the team is not). The last time I looked, he was tie at 1, his only wayward pitch was one that ventured over the plate against Tampa Bay’s Longoria.
Tampa Bay is still hanging in there, especially with Garza on the mound. He’s another real competitor, throwing hard all the time an with every pitch purposeful. (Sabathia’s in trouble now, turning back to the Yankee game).
Labor Day is also like the end of the sports fiscal year, if you will. Baseball’s winding down and it seems apparent who’ll be in the Series (although this year may be different), the football season is just beginning, fantasy drafts have all been conducted, and, as I said, there’s this U.S. Open.
But basketball’s right on the horizon too. And this year, we may even be able to root for the Knicks a little harder. I like the moves they’ve made so far, but it’s almost funny to see the horrible Curry pulling down the money he’s making, 9.7 million. It’s hard to make up that kind of deficit.
But there’s life at the end of the Knicks tunnel. They may not have Nate Robinson anymore, or that nice power forward, but they do have Larry Hughes, Darko Milicic and Cuttino Mobley. They’re all making some fancy bucks too, but I’m pretty sure those salaries will be coming off soon.
Back at Flushing Meadows, Oudin is up 5-3 in the third, and thoroughly wiping out the Red Menace. (Really, I’m no jingoist). Petrova’s done. Oudin just missed on her first match point, but she’s so so close and the result seems inevitable. Relentless is what she is.
And there it is, the end of things; Oudin has prevailed. “Down goes Dementieva, down goes Sharapova, and down goes Petrova”, says the announcer. Three Russians in a row, they’ll be talking about Oudin down in friggin’ Moscow for a long long time. Wow! I’m really psyched!
Geez, the Yankee game seems kind of tame compared to Oudin. But it’s over, it’s time to move along. The Yanks are still tied 1-1, a real pitching duel between CC and Garza. Bottom of the sixth and with these two horses, we may not see any relievers for a long time yet.
Arod just got a little single, and it’s his third hit in as many tries. With just one out and men on first and second now, this could be the end for Garza. Arod’s actually holding up pretty well this year, batting about .280 now with about 24 homers and 80 ribbies, not too shabby for missing April.
It’s so tough to watch men’s tennis and not just for obvious reasons. The thought of watching these guys for up to five sets is just too daunting, kind of the same way I feel in the first quarter of a basketball game. The women just have to win two sets and every point holds your attention.
Nevertheless, Federer is going now against Robredo, and while Federer may be the best player in the world, it’s the first set and I know there’ll be another two hours, at least, before this match winds itself down.
Geez, I just had to explain to my wife about Labor Day. It seems she’s never heard that you don’t work on Labor Day. Wikipedia tells me that I am right (again). This day has its origins back in the 1880’s after a particularly harsh treatment of labor unions in the Pullman Strike. Beyond that though, tradition has always called for this day to be a day of rest, something totally alien to my Brit wife.
At any rate, there is a conspicuous absence of football today unless you’re rabid enough to watch the 4th exhibition games. Not me. The NFL seems to think they can put anybody out there and still command the same commercial dollars from advertisers. No way. Not this guy, I have trouble slogging through all the commercials for a regular season contest.
There have been some things happening though, and I was sorry to see David Tyree let go, albeit totally agreeing with the move. Now both heroes of the Super Bowl are gone and they’ll be missed, if just for the sake of nostalgia. But Tyree’s routes (and hands) were always an adventure.
Back to the Yankees, Posada and Cano (and Hughes for that matter) just teamed up on a great pitchout and throwout of Crawford, the fastest Ray, at second base. Just when I was thinking what a huge mistake it was for Hughes to walk Crawford, the error gets expunged by a beautiful play (and call).
And that’s what makes this Yankee team kinda special, their infield defense is formidable and their hitting and relief pitching are all there too. I was surprised to hear that even Aceves has ten wins.
Aaaaah, Labor Day.
Now I’m watching this little mercuric Melanie Oudin drive this Russian crazy, and being that it’s Nadia Petrova, that shouldn’t be that hard. Ms Oudin is playing smart, taking full advantage of her fitness, moving Petrova left and right, up and down, and she kicked her butt in the second set tie-breaker.
I’m not ordinarily a jingo, but I find myself saying, “move that fat Russian” at every opportunity. But I have an excuse. This little fireball inspires some loyalty; she plays so hard!
But enough about tennis. The great thing on Labor Day is that you can switch between the Yankee game and the tennis, or you can watch the Mets encore against the Cubs with Mike Pelfrey apparently trying to prove he really doesn’t stink. (I had reamed him a new butt in my last article.)
The Yankee pitcher, C.C. Sabathia, is similarly easy to root for (even if the team is not). The last time I looked, he was tie at 1, his only wayward pitch was one that ventured over the plate against Tampa Bay’s Longoria.
Tampa Bay is still hanging in there, especially with Garza on the mound. He’s another real competitor, throwing hard all the time an with every pitch purposeful. (Sabathia’s in trouble now, turning back to the Yankee game).
Labor Day is also like the end of the sports fiscal year, if you will. Baseball’s winding down and it seems apparent who’ll be in the Series (although this year may be different), the football season is just beginning, fantasy drafts have all been conducted, and, as I said, there’s this U.S. Open.
But basketball’s right on the horizon too. And this year, we may even be able to root for the Knicks a little harder. I like the moves they’ve made so far, but it’s almost funny to see the horrible Curry pulling down the money he’s making, 9.7 million. It’s hard to make up that kind of deficit.
But there’s life at the end of the Knicks tunnel. They may not have Nate Robinson anymore, or that nice power forward, but they do have Larry Hughes, Darko Milicic and Cuttino Mobley. They’re all making some fancy bucks too, but I’m pretty sure those salaries will be coming off soon.
Back at Flushing Meadows, Oudin is up 5-3 in the third, and thoroughly wiping out the Red Menace. (Really, I’m no jingoist). Petrova’s done. Oudin just missed on her first match point, but she’s so so close and the result seems inevitable. Relentless is what she is.
And there it is, the end of things; Oudin has prevailed. “Down goes Dementieva, down goes Sharapova, and down goes Petrova”, says the announcer. Three Russians in a row, they’ll be talking about Oudin down in friggin’ Moscow for a long long time. Wow! I’m really psyched!
Geez, the Yankee game seems kind of tame compared to Oudin. But it’s over, it’s time to move along. The Yanks are still tied 1-1, a real pitching duel between CC and Garza. Bottom of the sixth and with these two horses, we may not see any relievers for a long time yet.
Arod just got a little single, and it’s his third hit in as many tries. With just one out and men on first and second now, this could be the end for Garza. Arod’s actually holding up pretty well this year, batting about .280 now with about 24 homers and 80 ribbies, not too shabby for missing April.
It’s so tough to watch men’s tennis and not just for obvious reasons. The thought of watching these guys for up to five sets is just too daunting, kind of the same way I feel in the first quarter of a basketball game. The women just have to win two sets and every point holds your attention.
Nevertheless, Federer is going now against Robredo, and while Federer may be the best player in the world, it’s the first set and I know there’ll be another two hours, at least, before this match winds itself down.
Geez, I just had to explain to my wife about Labor Day. It seems she’s never heard that you don’t work on Labor Day. Wikipedia tells me that I am right (again). This day has its origins back in the 1880’s after a particularly harsh treatment of labor unions in the Pullman Strike. Beyond that though, tradition has always called for this day to be a day of rest, something totally alien to my Brit wife.
At any rate, there is a conspicuous absence of football today unless you’re rabid enough to watch the 4th exhibition games. Not me. The NFL seems to think they can put anybody out there and still command the same commercial dollars from advertisers. No way. Not this guy, I have trouble slogging through all the commercials for a regular season contest.
There have been some things happening though, and I was sorry to see David Tyree let go, albeit totally agreeing with the move. Now both heroes of the Super Bowl are gone and they’ll be missed, if just for the sake of nostalgia. But Tyree’s routes (and hands) were always an adventure.
Back to the Yankees, Posada and Cano (and Hughes for that matter) just teamed up on a great pitchout and throwout of Crawford, the fastest Ray, at second base. Just when I was thinking what a huge mistake it was for Hughes to walk Crawford, the error gets expunged by a beautiful play (and call).
And that’s what makes this Yankee team kinda special, their infield defense is formidable and their hitting and relief pitching are all there too. I was surprised to hear that even Aceves has ten wins.
Aaaaah, Labor Day.
Friday, September 4, 2009
The Open, Blackouts and Budgets
Wow! This U.S. Open women’s bracket is really sumthin’. A 17-year old young woman from Georgia just beat Maria Dementieva, and she looked great doing it. Dementieva didn’t give it away either. Oudin took it.
Oudin won it on an ace. But there were some long rallies and some wicked forehands mixed in. And this is all happening right up there in Flushing Meadows, hard by Metsland.
Tennis continued into today, of course, and we got to see Maria Sharapova, who only even needs a last name because of one Maria Kirilenko. I love the U.S. Open. And this Open may be enjoying the best weather of any U.S. Open ever. Just a good time for everybody in a beautiful setting.
Today though, the Mets won again, for once not losing the first game of a series. So that’s pretty good, and they beat Carlos Zambrano. The Mets pitcher was Bobby Parnell and, after about five horrid outings in a row, he shut out the Cubs for seven innings. So that’s two in a row for my sorry team, the first time they’ve pulled that off since July 30th.
But one thing definitely caught my eye today, and pretty soon it will be all too apparent to football fans in lots of places. Commissioner Goodell expects that 20% of NFL games will be blacked out this year. That’s one out of five for you math minors. In New York we may be safe but what about the six or seven cities every week that can’t sit back and watch their local football team on TV.
I can’t imagine the uproar. For example, in Denver (which may or may not be one of the cities in trouble), folks can sit home on Sunday morning and see NFL action starting at 10 AM. Then they’ll take a little break maybe and see another game at 1 PM. If the Broncos are blacked out, that goes a long way towards ruining your Sunday morning.
Too many Sundays like that and maybe football fans will have to develop an alternative life style. I can’t even imagine what that would be…maybe attendance at churches will soar to the heights but I don’t think so. People will go skiing or take a ride into the mountains for a day trip. Maybe they’ll realize what they’ve been missing and forget about the vicarious thrills of hard hits (yeah, even in Denver) and bad behavior (especially in Denver).
Can anything be worse than trying to get into a team’s fourth exhibition game? Oh My God! Lots of offense if that’s what turns you on, but the whole game is played by folks you’ve never heard of. And may never hear from again.
The Jets had Sanchez on the field for one series against the Eagles second team. He was great again, going four for four to that nifty tight end, Dustin Keller, twice and once to Cotchery in the end zone. Other than that, they managed to lose the game but nobody really cared.
The Giants game was even more boring but I guess Sinorice Moss made a case for himself, if anybody really cares about Moss. I know he’d shown nothing for at least two years. If I were the Giants, I’d drop him anyway. It’s a little late in the game to decide to show up and play.
Baseball’s getting a lot crazier. I just watched Jim Thome belt out a hit for the Dodgers! I can’t get used to this. Meanwhile, Giambi banged out another big hit for the Rockies. Cliff Lee is pitching for the Phils. Pedro Martinez is too, and he beat Lincecum the other day. And that’s only a tithe (well maybe a mini-tithe) of the players who’ve changed teams since the break.
Everybody’s just picking up players willy-nilly. I wonder if teams feel a little better this year about dumping salaries. Makes sense to me. But it sure does make things confusing. And things are confusing enough, especially if you’re a Mets fan.
I mean, really, what kind of curse got laid on this team! Not only did all the players get hurt but the friggin’ owner went out and lost a lot of his money too, probably more than a a tithe. It’s really not fair. Not only is our present messed up, but now our future doesn’t look that rosy either.
Ah well, I guess in this economy,you just have to roll with the punches, and if the recession or depression or whatever it is we’re in the middle of, finally starts to intrude on our fantasy sports world, I guess we had it coming. It’s certainly intruded on everybody else’s life. Why should we be immune?
Maybe the Mets will become like the Pirates, developing young players and then dumping them at peak value. Even if it could be for just a couple of years, that would be very depressing. Not that it’d be all bad to see young guys playing the game, especially after the years of watching aging fellows not quite living up to what they had done in the past.
I know one thing. I’m really tired of watching Pelfrey. He’s finally made it to my list. How many times can he pitch a good one only to look like a Little Leaguer the very next start. Enough with the head cases already. We already have Ollie Perez, that’s more than enough.
Aah, Minaya will think of something. If anybody’s adept at picking up serviceable players for just a little money, it’s him. And things aren’t totally bad, I suppose. Beltran’s supposed to be showing his face next week, and I guess Reyes will be back next year. Delgado’s gone but so will that salary. If Omar is free to spend it, all will be right with the world.
Meanwhile, Mets fans can try to imagine the Yankees in a short series with just about anybody with two good starters and getting their arrogant butts beat.
Oudin won it on an ace. But there were some long rallies and some wicked forehands mixed in. And this is all happening right up there in Flushing Meadows, hard by Metsland.
Tennis continued into today, of course, and we got to see Maria Sharapova, who only even needs a last name because of one Maria Kirilenko. I love the U.S. Open. And this Open may be enjoying the best weather of any U.S. Open ever. Just a good time for everybody in a beautiful setting.
Today though, the Mets won again, for once not losing the first game of a series. So that’s pretty good, and they beat Carlos Zambrano. The Mets pitcher was Bobby Parnell and, after about five horrid outings in a row, he shut out the Cubs for seven innings. So that’s two in a row for my sorry team, the first time they’ve pulled that off since July 30th.
But one thing definitely caught my eye today, and pretty soon it will be all too apparent to football fans in lots of places. Commissioner Goodell expects that 20% of NFL games will be blacked out this year. That’s one out of five for you math minors. In New York we may be safe but what about the six or seven cities every week that can’t sit back and watch their local football team on TV.
I can’t imagine the uproar. For example, in Denver (which may or may not be one of the cities in trouble), folks can sit home on Sunday morning and see NFL action starting at 10 AM. Then they’ll take a little break maybe and see another game at 1 PM. If the Broncos are blacked out, that goes a long way towards ruining your Sunday morning.
Too many Sundays like that and maybe football fans will have to develop an alternative life style. I can’t even imagine what that would be…maybe attendance at churches will soar to the heights but I don’t think so. People will go skiing or take a ride into the mountains for a day trip. Maybe they’ll realize what they’ve been missing and forget about the vicarious thrills of hard hits (yeah, even in Denver) and bad behavior (especially in Denver).
Can anything be worse than trying to get into a team’s fourth exhibition game? Oh My God! Lots of offense if that’s what turns you on, but the whole game is played by folks you’ve never heard of. And may never hear from again.
The Jets had Sanchez on the field for one series against the Eagles second team. He was great again, going four for four to that nifty tight end, Dustin Keller, twice and once to Cotchery in the end zone. Other than that, they managed to lose the game but nobody really cared.
The Giants game was even more boring but I guess Sinorice Moss made a case for himself, if anybody really cares about Moss. I know he’d shown nothing for at least two years. If I were the Giants, I’d drop him anyway. It’s a little late in the game to decide to show up and play.
Baseball’s getting a lot crazier. I just watched Jim Thome belt out a hit for the Dodgers! I can’t get used to this. Meanwhile, Giambi banged out another big hit for the Rockies. Cliff Lee is pitching for the Phils. Pedro Martinez is too, and he beat Lincecum the other day. And that’s only a tithe (well maybe a mini-tithe) of the players who’ve changed teams since the break.
Everybody’s just picking up players willy-nilly. I wonder if teams feel a little better this year about dumping salaries. Makes sense to me. But it sure does make things confusing. And things are confusing enough, especially if you’re a Mets fan.
I mean, really, what kind of curse got laid on this team! Not only did all the players get hurt but the friggin’ owner went out and lost a lot of his money too, probably more than a a tithe. It’s really not fair. Not only is our present messed up, but now our future doesn’t look that rosy either.
Ah well, I guess in this economy,you just have to roll with the punches, and if the recession or depression or whatever it is we’re in the middle of, finally starts to intrude on our fantasy sports world, I guess we had it coming. It’s certainly intruded on everybody else’s life. Why should we be immune?
Maybe the Mets will become like the Pirates, developing young players and then dumping them at peak value. Even if it could be for just a couple of years, that would be very depressing. Not that it’d be all bad to see young guys playing the game, especially after the years of watching aging fellows not quite living up to what they had done in the past.
I know one thing. I’m really tired of watching Pelfrey. He’s finally made it to my list. How many times can he pitch a good one only to look like a Little Leaguer the very next start. Enough with the head cases already. We already have Ollie Perez, that’s more than enough.
Aah, Minaya will think of something. If anybody’s adept at picking up serviceable players for just a little money, it’s him. And things aren’t totally bad, I suppose. Beltran’s supposed to be showing his face next week, and I guess Reyes will be back next year. Delgado’s gone but so will that salary. If Omar is free to spend it, all will be right with the world.
Meanwhile, Mets fans can try to imagine the Yankees in a short series with just about anybody with two good starters and getting their arrogant butts beat.
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