High Time for the Giants

After a careful review of the New York Giants and Tampa Bay Bucs season statistics, I've decided that this is a game between two teams so closely matched in performance and numbers that it really can't be decided or predicted in that manner. The game will be decided on emotion. And timing. Whose time is it? I think it'll be the Giants time.

Reason might actually favor the Bucs. Their quarterback, Jeff Garcia, has been “there” before, as has their formidable wide receiver Joey Galloway. Their defensive stud, Derrick Brooks, likewise has played and won some big games. Jon Gruden, their exuberant coach with the Chucky-face, has been to the Super Bowl and won. Experience in big games favors the Bucs, especially winning experiences.
And, speaking of reason, the numbers also would seem to slightly favor the Buccaneers. You can throw out the Giants first two games and the Bucs last two games. The Giants struggled mightily in those first two games learning their new defensive roles while the Bucs played subs in their last two games. In the other 14 games, the Giants outscored the Bucs 325 to 292 points, but allowed 271 points to the Bucs 218, a wider disparity in points allowed than points scored, in favor of the Bucs. On the entire season, the Giants defense ranks seventh overall while the Bucs rank second. The Giants are more balanced though, ranking 8th against the rush and eleventh against the pass, and that includes the horrors against Tony Romo and Bret Favre.
A look at common opponents also favors the Bucs. Against the Redskins, the Giants won at Washington and lost at home while the Bucs beat the Skins 19-13 at home. As for losses vs. playoff teams, the Bucs lost at Seattle in the first week of the season, 20-6, lost at Indianapolis 33-14, and lost at home to Jacksonville 24-23. The Giants lost twice to Dallas, but in the second game lost respectably 31-20 at home. They lost to the Skins as discussed, a loss in a week late in the season while they were coasting a bit. They lost to Green Bay, but once again, that was in Week 2 when their defense had not yet solidified. The G-Men played their best game of the season last week against the All-Everything New England Patriots but still lost 38-35. While the Bucs performance against the tough Jaguars is impressive, the most notable statistic here is that Pats game, and it may work to the Giants’ advantage that they lost.
The Giants have more players who will be hungry. Look at the cast of characters. Eli Manning has been ridden all season for his completion percentage, his turnovers, his decisions under pressure, and on and on. Brandon Jacobs has been living under Tiki’s shadow all year. Plaxico Burress has been hurt all year, his ankle, and yet played in every game, most of the time drawing two defenders despite his handicaps. The offensive line is a veteran group that gets little respect.
On defense, the great Michael Strahan has never won a Super Bowl. Antonio Pierce has had a great year. They’ve played well against the run especially. Even more significant may be that their veteran coach, Tom Coughlin, has never won a playoff game. He may be the hungriest of all. Of the two teams, the Giants have more experienced players and more players who have been frustrated for much of their careers.
Although Tampa Bay can boast the best pass defense in the NFL, they rank only 17th against the rush. The Giants should be able to push the ball up the field. Eli Manning proved against the Patriots that he can play the dink and dunk game as well as throw the long pass. Both his wideouts are experienced, talented and motivated. The Bucs have nobody to match the 6’5” Plaxico for sheer size. Amani Toomer gets open and, despite some periods of lost concentration, is a reliable possession receiver. The wildcard may be Kevin Boss, the 6’6” 253 pound tight end who filled in admirably for Jeremy Shockey last week against the Pats with four catches for 50 yards and a touchdown. That’s two huge receivers who’ll be hard to cover (even when they’re “covered”).
While the Giants have gone to sleep in several games this year, against the Vikings for sure, they have also shown themselves to be a team that can seize a real opportunity. But for a very unfortunate injury to Sam Madison and a subsequent blown coverage, they could and should have beaten the Patriots. And what bigger opportunity is there than to advance in the playoffs !
They will surely recognize that if they could pressure Tom Brady, with his great offensive line and All-World receivers, surely they can pressure Jeff Garcia, with only one really big-play wideout and a somewhat suspect offensive line. Consider that Garcia has beaten them in the playoffs twice already. Surely they have seen those tapes.
The Giants have been strong vs. the run all year. While the Bucs’ Earnest Graham can run the ball, I don’t think he can crack that defensive unit of the Giants. Garcia will be forced to throw early and often. The Bucs Galloway is coming off an injury and is no Randy Moss. Ike Hilliard isn’t Wes Welker. The tight ends of the Bucs are not a formidable group. Yes indeed, the Giants will concentrate on stopping the run. Then they’ll stop the pass.
Offensively, the Boys in Blue will try to run the ball down the throats of the Bucs. But they’re capable of surprising the Bucs defense at any time. They’ll continue to throw to Jacobs out of the backfield. They’ll continue to use that huge tight end Boss as still another alternative.
And then there’s momentum. At the expense of hurting some big guns, they played hard in Week 17. They’ll be right on schedule for Week 18. The Bucs won’t. They took a couple of weeks off. It’ll show on Sunday. Giants 34-20.