All Things Being Equal...

There are going to be some real dogfights for divisional titles this year in Major League Baseball. No, there won’t be any pit bulls or even evil-looking roosters, but there will be some guys with that determined look on their faces, and they’ll be dramatically changing the outlook for their respective teams in the races for the playoffs.

In the AL East, while the Red Sox won it all last year, they will have trouble repeating. With Curt Schilling ailing, the starting pitching isn’t really that strong. Josh Beckett and Daisuke Matsuzaka are #1 and #2, but #3 will be Wakefield and #4 will be Jon Lester or Clay Bucholz. The lineup isn’t really all that strong either after a big three of Ortiz, Ramirez and Youkilis. Jacoby Ellsbury, their nifty cf of last year, will have to do it again to make me a true believer.

The Yankees have all that power and, although they lost out in the Santana sweepstakes, have fewer question marks in a starting rotation going into the season. Wang and Pettite are very steady and Joba makes a hell of a third starter if they put him there. Mussina wasn’t as reliable last year as he had been, but I’d expect that one of either Phil Hughes or Ian Kennedy should be a more than adequate replacement.

<>The real surprise team in all of baseball, though, could be the Toronto Blue Jays. I believe Scott Rolen will outperform Troy Glaus, who they traded to the Cards. When Scott Rolen is happy, he’s formidable on offense and defense. He’s a winner, as is another very nice clutch player, a real gamer, ss David Eckstein. Vernon Wells had shoulder surgery and could recapture some of the magic he produced in the past. On paper, their potential lineup is scary with speed and power. Alex Rios, their rightfielder returns. Rios hits for power and can run. Lyle Overbay is a very nice first baseman. And Frank Thomas, if he can stay healthy, could out-produce his 2007 numbers of 26 homers and 95 rbi’s.

Pitching? Roy Halladay, A.J. Burnett and youngsters Dustin McGowan and Shaun Marcum are the best starting rotation in the league. And with B.J. Ryan returning to close, and a perfectly good middle-relief corps of lefties and righties, the Jays might also have the best relief corps in baseball.

<>In the AL Central, Detroit’s additions of Dontrelle Willis, Miguel Cabrera and Edgar Renteria should make them too much for anything else in the Central. But the Indians will be returning with the best starters in Sabathia, Carmona, Westbrook and Byrd. The relief corps is very strong again, despite the seemingly annual harangue over closer Joe Borowski. <>

The Angels will once again battle the Mariners for supremacy but neither of these teams is on the rise. Whoever prevails will fall in the first round.

I think the Jays will win the AL East this year. And maybe win the whole shebang. Because these three AL East teams will be knocking one another off all year, look for the wildcard to come out of the Central Division. Detroit and Cleveland will probably prevail over the Mariners or Angels.

In the NL East, the most ballyhooed addition of a player was, of course, Johan Santana, and he should considerably bolster the Mets staff, considering the net advantage of him versus Tom Glavine. The Mets also should have less controversy this year if swapping a Schneider for a LoDuca at catcher is any indication.

The Phillies will be tough again though. They also acquired a pretty fair closer in Brad Lidge, enabling Brett Myers to move back into his #2 starting role. Cole Hamels is the Number 1 starter and the southpaw went 15-5 with a 3.39 ERA in 2007. The starting pitching does drop off after the first big two though. They do have some nice middle relief though in Tom Gordon, J.C. Romero and Ryan Madsen.

<>The Braves are looking improved as well. While Tom Glavine isn’t Johan Santana, he isn’t chopped liver either and will probably be better than ever in his old home ballpark. The loss of Andruw Jones though will be painful. They do have the powerful Mark Teixeira now though, and a young fellow named Yunel Escobar, a 6-2 200 pound ss who hit .326 for them last year should adequately replace Edgar Renteria. If Chipper Jones can stay healthy, you have to look out for the Braves as well.

In the NL Central, there are the Chicago Cubs. They are loaded with pitchers. Zambrano, Lilly, Rich Hill, Jon Lieber for starters and a shootout for closing duties between Kerry Wood and Carlos Marmol. Two intriguing additions to their lineup could make them that much stronger. Kosuke Fukudome may compare with Ichiro, they say, and there is also a new catcher in the person of Geovany Soto who hit .353 in AAA before smacking .389 for the major league club in just 18 games.

The Cubs ascendancy may very well be at the expense of the perennial hard-luck Milwaukee Brewers. But the Brewers added five pitchers to their suspect relief corps. And have a potentially strong starting rotation. The Brewers could surprise. Prince Fielder returns, of course, and if Bill Hall can man third base while Ryan Braun moves to the outfield, their defense will be greatly improved.

<>In the NL West, the Arizona Diamondbacks, San Diego Padres and Colorado Rockies seem poised for another thriller of a division race in the NL West. All pitching, no hitting for the D-Backs though; the same can be said for the Padres. I expect that the Rockies will prevail once more, despite the losses of Kaz Matsui and starter Josh Fogg.

Parity can be a wonderful thing. Especially if it results in a Blue Jays-Cubs World Series. Or Indians-Brewers even. Only the networks would take issue with those matchups. That is, unless you discount about 20 million Yanks, Mets and Red Sox faithful.