Some Very Fine Tuning for the Mets

As much as it's difficult to pull ourselves from football, after the Giants Super Bowl win and the surprise cancellation of "Inside the NFL" by HBO, it's high-time to talk baseball. I'll skip basketball for the moment and Shaq's trade to the Suns, which was highway-robbery on Miami's part. I'll skip all the drivel revolving around Roger Clemens too. I'd like to forget about him completely, as much of the sports world will do once the syringe results are in. Except....I do wonder how Mike Piazza feels about the whole thing.

Yes, it's about time I turn my attention to my favorite subject, the New York Mets. Shaking off their astounding collapse of 2007, the Mets, after some seemingly lack-luster moves over the winter, managed to pick up Johan Santana, only the best pitcher in the game. Although I say that with some reservation, given the unbelievable performance of Josh Beckett in last year's playoffs and World Series, millions of fantasy baseball players can't be wrong.

And, as any fantasy player will tell you, the first pitcher chosen in fantasy drafts for several years has been Johan Santana. I must also confess, however, that most winners in fantasy baseball do not select pitchers in the first round. Nor, for that matter, do they select pitchers in about the first five rounds. The reason, of course, is risk.

Pitchers do some very strange things with their shoulders and elbows. The pitchers who seem to last the longest, though, are those fastball pitchers and Johan qualifies. The interesting thing about Santana is that, despite the overpowering heater, his strikeout pitch is quite often the "circle change". The nice thing, from a Mets fan's point of view is that the circle change requires no twisting of the wrist or elbow. Just sock that ball way back in your palm and let it go.

Pitchers are also very often inconsistent, both from season to season and within each season itself. In the last three years with the Twins, Santana went 16-7, 19-6 and 15-13. His ERA for the same years was 2.87, 2.77 and 3.33. I've heard it said that he's had over 200 strikeouts every year, but that's a bit like saying Barry Bonds had over 30 homers every year. Santana had K totals of 238, 245 and 235 in his last three years.

Josh Beckett for the same years went 15-8, 16-11 and 20-7, very impressive, but that was with the World Champions for the last two years. His ERA for the same years was 3.38, 5.01 and 3.27. (It is rather troubling that, in his first year changing leagues, his ERA increased dramatically). He struck out 166, 158 and 194 batters. He gives up more hits, walks more batters and pitches fewer innings than does Santana.

Despite having pitched so many innings over the last three years, he doesn't throw many pitches per outing.. He doesn't walk many batters, and he doesn't surrender many hits either. That reduces his pitch counts per game dramatically, and, if I may say so, puts smiles on his and his teammates' faces all throughout the game.

You may have guessed by now, that despite the risk associated with pitchers in general, I am thrilled that the Mets acquired this 28-year old. No pitcher has been more consistent and no pitcher has a more risk-worthy pitching style than Santana. In addition, as far as anyone knows, he does not attend cock-fights.

The Santana contract compares favorably, given inflation in the market for pitchers, to the deal for Pedro Martinez, which was for four years and 53 million back in 2004, if you consider that Pedro was 33 years old at the time. Pedro, of course, pitched well for the Mets in 2005 and half of 2006 before missing almost the entire 2007 season.

This 2008 season will be another contract year for Pedro (another interesting fact not lost on fantasy players). There is every reason to believe that Pedro may have his best season in years, which would be saying something. If Pedro can produce at 90% of his 2005 production, he wil pitch 28 starts, throw 195 innings and strikeout 187. His ERA would be about 3.10.

So, Mets fans, we lost a nice left-hander, Tom Glavine, and gained the best southpaw in baseball. We lost a nice catcher, Paul LoDuca but Brian Schneider has been a better defensive catcher, and Ramon Castro may get more at-bats, a good thing. We lost Lastings Milledge and Shawn Green but acquired Ryan Church, and Endy Chavez may get more at-bats, another good thing. In addition, both Schneider and Church bat left-handed; expect eventual platoons at both catcher and right field.

The rotation looks to be that much stronger, but, perhaps more significantly, the middle relief could regain its 2006 status. Duaner Sanchez returns. Minaya also picked up a 27-year old named Ruddy Lugo. He should complement Pedro Feliciano, Jorge Sosa, Scott Schoenweiss and another interesting addition, Matt Wise from the Brewers.

Last year's collapse was primarily due to too many leads given up in the middle innings, due to comparatively short starter outings and too many middle relief appearances. Jose Reyes and Carlos Delgado, however, also slumped and placed additional pressure on Wright and Beltran for run production. They need to have better years.

Moises Alou needs to be play a full season. He has been a great hitter but in his last three years has averaged only about 100 games. Marlon Anderson backs him up, but is also the premiere pinch-hitter in the league, and he can't do both.

It should be another battle with the Phils this year. They picked up a closer in Brad Lidge and moved Bret Myers into the rotation. They also added power to an already strong lineup in the form of Geoff Jenkins from the Brewers.

The Mets now have better starters, better overall relief and more flexibility, if not power, in their lineup. Look for a mid-season trade if Delgado can’t produce. With a little luck, the Mets should make a return trip to the World Series.