Holy Cow ! Winning is Risky !!

Holy Cow! Almost lost against the backdrop of NFL playoff games have been some very interesting baseball developments, not just signings but also the behind-the-scenes skullduggery among the various contenders for the talent that’s still out there.

For me, two signings take precedence. Both of them relate to the Yanks recent finalization of their humongous contract with Mark Teixeira, the wunderkind first baseman, who of course got 22.5 million dollars per year for eight long years.

First, I’m very happy for Jason Giambi, who Teixeira is replacing. Jason landed back in Oakland, the team for which he built his formidable reputation as a hitter for both average and power. That Oakland legacy was enough to inspire the Yankees to sign Giambi seven years ago for record numbers.

Sadly for Jason and Yankees fans, that signing never really bore fruit in terms of World Series victories. The prevailing remembrances for most New Yorkers of Giambi’s New York service will be steroids and a fervent wish that the Yanks had kept Tino.

But for the true baseball aficionado, Jason Giambi was a potent presence in the Yanks lineup, more than capable of knocking one over the wall or, at the very least, to draw a base on balls after coaxing about ten more pitches out of their opponent’s starter. If he had any speed on the bases, or anywhere for that matter, Jason would have been even more valuable.

Giambi will be missed in New York, I suspect, much as Tino Martinez was before him. Not because Mark Teixeira can’t play the game, but just as a Yankees presence and overall good guy and teammate. Giambi was always affable with the media, too, even after some rough nights in the field.

But his gaffes in the field and his lack of speed on the base paths severely limited his overall value and suppressed his runs scored quite severely. Surely though, he was valued by his teammates and management as a hard-nosed player who wanted to win. But in hindsight, he surely was not the player the Yanks had envisioned.

The second signing I’ve been anxiously awaiting took place yesterday. That would be the Indians signing of a true Yankees disaster, Carl Pavano, probably the biggest mistake the Yankees, or any team for that matter, has ever made in free agency except perhaps for the Albert Belle fiasco.

Pavano was beset by injuries throughout the term of his 4-year $50 million contract with the Yanks and pitched just 26 starts in four years. That’s basically 2 mill per start. Even the Roger Clemens partial-year deal doesn’t compare in sheer magnitude of loss.

But what makes this deal most intriguing is its structure. It’s for one year only at 1.5 mill, but Carl can make as much as 5.3 mill with 18 starts, not a bad deal for anyone concerned really. What makes this even better is that Pavano may be pitching against the Yankees in the middle of April, at the new stadium, as the Indians third starter behind Cliff Lee and Fausto Carmona.

Those two signings typify the risk involved for teams and players in free agency. It appears that only the major league players, like New York, Boston, Philly, LA…. can even contend for the really big earners, your Teixeiras and Mannys and Sabathias. Cleveland can’t compete for Sabathia or Burnet maybe but they can wind up picking up a potentially great pitcher for fair value.

If Pavano doesn’t make his starts number, he walks away with just 1.5 million. But, if he does win 15 or more games, and as he’s already undergone the arm surgery, his chances of doing just that are quite good, he’ll make, say, 5 million. That’s just 300K per win, and, figuring 25 starts, just 200k per start.

It’s good for the game that a team such as the Indians can still pick up a bargain and actually compete. And it’s just as good, if not better, that a team such as the Yankees or Boston can make such huge mistakes. Surely a Milwaukee can’t be so colossally stupid!

That’s not to say that the signings of Sabathia and Burnet and Teixeira are stupid. But the risk is pretty large. Ask yourself what are the chances that Teixeira will put in even close to eight full seasons. He’s a big fellow, he’ll be 29 in April and he’ll be playing the lion’s share of his contract years in his thirties, the last three years in his 35’s, so to speak.

Burnet’s getting 82.5 mill for 5 years and he’s already 32. Sabathia got better money, 7 years for 161 mill. He’s another big guy but he’s only 28 and he seems to throw effortlessly most of the time. The chances are pretty good, though, that all three free agents won’t finish their contracts in one piece.

To say the very least, the Yankees will be paying 3 or 4 times the Indians rate per win, and waaaay more than that for RBI’s. Ryan Garko, Cleveland’s first baseman, had 90 rbi’s in 2008 and 14 homers in 495 at bats. Teixeira averages over 100 ribbies per year and is a career .290 hitter. Garko makes about 420K. Their best player, Grady Sizemore, makes about 3 mill and their biggest bust is Travis Hafner, who only pulls down about 8 million.

What the big teams are really paying for is the surety of winning, the percentage chances of winning it all. That’s why the New York-Boston battle is so intriguing. Only God and the Yankees know what winning the title is really worth. It must exceed the marginal cost of these players, especially if you introduce the factor that these contracts are usually insured.

In the last ten years, big-market teams have made the World Series contests 12 times. But the little guys have made it 8 times, including Tampa Bay, Colorado, St Louis twice, Houston, Florida, Arizona and Atlanta.

Money alone won’t always make the difference. Holy Cow!