A Pennsylvania Weekend

On a day like today when it’s about 5 degrees in New Jersey, it’s hard to believe they’re still playing football in the NFL. Both Conference Championship Games will be played on Sunday, of course, and if I had my druthers (I usually don’t), I’d be headed to Phoenix.

It’ll be nice in Phoenix, of course. The Sunday forecast is sunny with temperatures ranging from 44 to 77 degrees. That probably favors Arizona, although it’s hard to imagine that good weather would hurt the guys used to playing in bad. The Eagles are favored by 2 ½ in Vegas at the moment and the over/under stands at a whopping 50 ½. Although I’m not betting, based on this data, the score figures to be sumthin’ like 26-24 Philadelphia.

I’m not going to make the same mistake 3 times in a row. I had bet against Phoenix in both Weeks 1 and 2 of the playoffs and of course lost twice. Not only did I lose but the second game was over early as the Cards absolutely pounded Carolina, making Jake Delhomme look ridiculous while scoring again and again in the first quarter and half.

And Carolina’s game plan, if you could call it that, was stupid! Really, there’s no better way to characterize it. They seemed to be covering Larry Fitzgerald, Arizona’s absolutely stellar wide receiver, with one man (when he was covered at all) all afternoon. On the other side of the ball, they tried to play catch up way too early, passing instead of running, and just played right into the Cards’ hands when Delhomme did his best impersonation of the worst quarterback to ever play the game.

Their first playoff game win, against Atlanta, was more indicative of their team performance. And yet, even in that game, Michael Turner, Atlanta’s ballyhooed running back, looked as if he could never get started, and wound up going east and west all day.

Still though, they did stop the run even if Atlanta looked remarkably bad in their execution of it. They only won by a score of 30-24 in that one and the usual suspects were instrumental in the win, Warner and Fitzgerald and Boldin, but there were also at least some vestiges of a running game with Edgerrin James, and even more surprising was their game toughness, as they forced their way ahead in the third and fourth quarters, scoring on a fumble recovery and runback from Antrel Rolle and then sacking Matt Ryan for a safety.

Toughness was the last thing anyone ever could have expected from the same team that basically just lay down on national TV versus the Pats (the snow angel game). Even in their last game of the year, while they picked up their level of play to beat Seattle, it wasn’t really extraordinary.

Philadelphia, though, knows what to expect. They’ve seen that defensive front, and have already expressed an admiration for Antonio Smith and his friends. When you really take a look at that defense, it’s got some real talent.

Their leading tackler by far is relatively unsung linebacker Karlos Danby while they get pressure on the QB from both linemen and linebackers. The secondary is strong too, and Antrel Rolle seems especially to have come alive in these playoff games. But they’re all playing well, Rogers-Cromartie and Adrian Wilson and Antonio Smith.

Knowing what to expect might be half the battle. The Cards surprised Atlanta and the Panthers too. I don’t think they’ll surprise Philly’s gigantic offensive line, especially in the passing game. McNabb will find targets among his ample bevy of receivers while their running game and junk dumpoffs to Westbrook will continue to work. Arizona will stop the run, but unless they can get to McNabb, it’ll be a long afternoon for the Cards defense.

The Eagles secondary is a good one, featuring Asante Samuel and the headstrong Brian Dawkins, and I’d expect them to have some success, but not as much as in their first game, won by the Eagles 48-20. In that game, the Cards had already wrapped the division. That makes a huge difference.

Expect a slugfest, but Eagles pressure on Warner will make the difference. I don’t believe the Cards will be able to pressure McNabb. He’ll still put up 3TD’s and figure another 2 or 3 field goals from Akers. That’s 30. Even if the Cards play better than they did the first time, I can’t see them being very efficient with Eagles in Warner’s face all day.

It’ll be close, but I’d expect Philly to pull ahead and then shutdown a closing Arizona flurry to make things respectable. The Eagles have taken the measure of Minnesota and the G-Men to get this far, a tougher road than Atlanta/Carolina and they won’t play second-fiddle to the upstart Cards. Make it 30-26 in the Eagles favor. For you gamblers, that’s the Eagles and the “over.”

The Pittsburgh weather will be distinctly worse than Arizona’s, with light snow forecasted and temperatures ranging from 15 to 28 degrees. That won’t bother either team though and it’ll be another defensive gem. This is the third meeting between the two and the Steelers have won both. I expect them to have success a third time, as difficult as that may seem.

The Ravens won’t be able to run against that Steelers defense while I think Willie Parker will do some damage on the other end. The Ravens have come a long way with a rookie quarterback, and they’re bound for a letdown after their big wins over Miami and especially over Tennessee.

I think Roethlisberger will prove the difference between a veteran in a big game and a rookie. Joe Flacco has been great so far, and, as a Jersey guy, it’s hard not to root for him, but this will be his first Conference Championship game.

It’s the year of Pennsylvania. Expect the Steelers to emerge victorious once again over the Ravens by 23-13. (Pitt and “over”).